Polymarket Wallet Analyzer
Paste any wallet. Calibration, sizing, concentration, Edge Score against the 8,656-wallet reference cohort, in 15 to 30 seconds.
Analyzer caveat
Wallet analysis uses public resolved positions only. Results are noisy for thin samples and should be read as diagnostics, not investment advice.
How the scoring works
Brier score
Squared error between recorded entry probabilities and resolved outcomes. Lower is better. An entry price need not be the trader's own forecast, so this describes the positions in the available record.
Reading the comparison
Read the historical comparison alongside its sample, uncertainty and coverage. Related markets can share one underlying outcome. A favorable comparison does not establish future skill or explain why a wallet made money.
Aggregated fills
A single whale bet fills across dozens of orderbook chunks, each landing as a separate /activity row. We aggregate fills by (market, side) into one position at its dollar-weighted average entry price (each fill's price weighted by the dollars filled at it). This reduces fragmentation across fills; it does not make related positions independent.
Concentration check
One election or one sports event can produce a full career of P&L for a concentrated whale. We show the single biggest event's contribution so you can see how much of the reported result depends on a single event.
Edge Score
Edge Score is a historical percentile against 8,656 April 2026 leaderboard wallets. It combines entry-price calibration, event concentration and position count, fitted against historical profit. It does not estimate the probability of skill or future returns. For the derivation, see the 10K-wallet study.
Polymarket wallet checker, tracker, and lookup
Three words for one job, and one of them promises something this tool does not do. Which is which:
As a Polymarket wallet checker
Paste a public 0x address and it checks that wallet's resolved record: calibration, sizing, concentration, and realized entry edge with a bootstrap 95% interval. It reads resolved positions only, from public data. Your first wallet needs no signup, no signature, and no private key; checking more wallets is free with an account.
As a Polymarket wallet tracker
It is not a live trade tracker. It does not stream fills, and it does not read open positions into the verdict. What it reads has already resolved, which is the only part of a record that can be scored against the prices the wallet paid. If you want a daily recap when a wallet you picked opens new positions, that is the watchlist, and a free account covers one wallet.
As a Polymarket wallet lookup
Every Polymarket account is a public wallet on Polygon, so its resolved history is readable from the 0x address alone, without the owner's authorization. The address you paste is not linked to a user account or published.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Polymarket wallet analyzer?
A tool that takes a public Polymarket wallet address and summarizes its available trading history. Convexly shows record coverage, calibration, sizing diagnostics, concentration and a historical Edge Score against 8,656 reference wallets, where the data support those measures. It runs in 15 to 30 seconds. Your first wallet analysis needs no signup, no signature, and no private key; analyzing more wallets is free with an account.
How can I tell if a Polymarket trader is skilled or just lucky?
Profit alone cannot establish skill. Convexly shows realized edge, uncertainty and the record covered by the read. An interval that includes zero is inconclusive; an interval above zero is still subject to missing records, related events and the number of wallets tested. Repeated performance on future, independent events after costs is stronger evidence than a historical rank.
How is Convexly different from a Polymarket PnL tracker?
Convexly adds record coverage, realized-edge intervals and a historical Edge Score percentile to the past results. Each read distinguishes the available API record from a reconciled chain record. The frozen reference contains 8,656 April 2026 leaderboard wallets; it does not represent every current trader or certify future skill. Published research includes multiple-testing checks and failed tests. No venue buys coverage or has editorial input. The first wallet check is free without signup; additional wallets require a free account.
How do you know a wallet's trade history is complete?
A public API read cannot establish that every position, redemption or other operation was captured. Reconciled reads include a block-anchored coverage record and the reconciliation checks available for that wallet. The block identifies the end of the stated coverage period; the absence of later token movement alone does not prove earlier history was captured correctly. Check the stated coverage and unresolved gaps alongside any score.
How do I find my Polymarket wallet address?
Open polymarket.com, click your profile picture in the top right, and copy the address shown under your username. It starts with 0x and has 40 hexadecimal characters. That is the same public address you paste into the analyzer.
What is a Brier score?
A Brier score measures squared error between probabilities and outcomes: lower is better. Convexly applies that calculation to entry probabilities on resolved positions. An entry price is not necessarily the trader's own probability forecast, so this describes the recorded trading positions rather than directly measuring private forecasting ability. Category breakdowns and sample coverage help interpret the result.
What is Edge Score?
Edge Score V4 is a historical composite percentile against a frozen cohort of 8,656 April 2026 leaderboard wallets. Its inputs describe entry-price calibration, event concentration and position count, fitted against historical PnL. Cross-wallet validation reproduces a same-history rank correlation of about 0.33. A score of 90 is not a 90% probability of skill and is not a forecast of future returns.
Is the wallet analyzer really free?
Yes. Your first wallet analysis at /tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer is free and needs no signup, and re-checking that same wallet stays free. Analyzing additional wallets is free with an account. Anonymous lookups are rate-limited to 3 analyses per 5 minutes per IP to protect the upstream Polymarket API. Convexly's paid plans add watchlists, digests, and Coherence Signals.
Does Convexly need my private key or wallet signature?
No. Convexly reads only public data. You paste a wallet address. We fetch the same trade history anyone could see on Polymarket itself, through the venue's public data API. No private key, no signature, no transaction authorization is ever required.
How many trades do I need for a meaningful analysis?
There is no universal trade-count threshold that establishes skill. Thirty positions in related markets can contain much less information than thirty independent events. Coverage, event concentration, costs and uncertainty matter together. The historical Edge Score cohort used a five-position inclusion floor; that is a selection rule, not a guarantee of reliable individual inference.
Can I analyze someone else's wallet?
Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public. You can paste any 0x address you know. The landing page includes demo links for public sample wallets so you can see a full analyzer output before pasting your own address.
Related searches
Common ways traders describe this tool and the adjacent questions that tend to come up. Each link opens a direct answer with citations to the underlying methodology.
Polymarket wallet tracker
Public-data-only. First wallet free, no signup; more wallets free with an account. Same tool. Most users search for “tracker” when they mean analyzer.
Check a Polymarket track record
The record behind any PnL screenshot, read from the public 0x address: calibration, sizing, concentration, and realized entry edge with its 95% interval.
Polymarket scanner
Compare historical Edge Scores across the 8,656-wallet reference cohort, with the published methodology.
Best Polymarket wallets to study
Why the PnL leaderboard is a poor skill filter, and how to compare historical records and their limits.
Polymarket calibration tool
What the calibration curve measures, what a good Brier score is, and why calibration alone is not enough.
Polymarket whale tracker
Top 20 Polymarket wallets ranked by PnL vs by Edge Score side by side. Where the two columns disagree is the point.
Your next prediction deserves this too
Convexly is the evidence-linked wallet and market diligence layer for prediction-market traders. Polymarket wallet analysis is live.