Polymarket wallet record
Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.
Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:
Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.
One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.
The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.
Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.
Independent read
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Read coverage
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 34 resolved positions with a win rate of 47.1% and a realized edge over entry prices of +1.9 probability points, 95% CI [-10.4, +15.1] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance.
Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...
Descriptive comparison with the published reference cohort.
In the published 50-wallet cohort artifact (rescored 2026-09-11) with an Edge Score of 61.4 across 37 scored resolved positions. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past resolved record (calibration, conviction, discipline), pending out-of-sample forward-skill validation. It is not a forecast and not a skill verdict.
This board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.
Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
A chain-complete read of this wallet exists: 33 resolved positions reconciled on chain as of the 2026-09-11 rescore.
Calibration pct
22
Conviction pct
64
Discipline pct
53
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How this read was produced