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Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

realized edge +4.0 pp, 95% CI [-5.7, +13.0], n=94

Realized edge +4.0 probability points across 94 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-5.7, +13.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

Wallet0x1d8a...e842PolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

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Coverage, method and refund terms

The result covers settled positions that can be reconciled to the chain, as of a stated block. Unresolved positions and later trades are outside that read. A record receipt is available only while the underlying read meets its issuance checks.

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What previous full reads found

Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.

Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-30 Run a fresh analysis

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,008 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Published cohort status

Descriptive comparison with the published reference cohort.

In the published 50-wallet cohort artifact (rescored 2026-10-07) with an Edge Score of 59.3 across 94 scored resolved positions. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past resolved record (calibration, conviction, discipline), pending out-of-sample forward-skill validation. It is not a forecast and not a skill verdict.

This board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.

Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past record; the realized-edge read above is the outcome measure with its interval. They answer different questions and can point in different directions without contradiction.

Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.

A chain-complete read of this wallet exists: 92 resolved positions reconciled on chain as of the 2026-10-07 rescore.

Calibration pct

73

Conviction pct

65

Discipline pct

20

See the full rankings · realized-edge scan of this cohort

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

94

Wins / losses

59 / 35

Win rate

62.8%

Brier

0.211

Baseline Brier

0.234

Biggest-event share

93.5%

of net result; above 100% when other events lost

First position

2025-10-26

Fills analyzed

1,008

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0226. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Seattle vs. New England (93.5% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
sports8360.2%0.2290.239
other1080.0%0.0800.160

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
10-20%10.0%15.0%
20-30%10.0%25.0%
30-40%10.0%35.0%
40-50%862.5%45.0%
50-60%6058.3%55.0%
60-70%771.4%65.0%
70-80%366.7%75.0%
80-90%785.7%85.0%
90-100%6100.0%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x1d8a...e842?
As of 2026-09-30, Convexly's cached read shows 94 resolved positions, 59 wins and 35 losses (win rate 62.8%). Realized edge over entry prices: +4.0 probability points, 95% CI [-5.7, +13.0] (BCa bootstrap, n = 94 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x1d8a...e842 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge +4.0 probability points across 94 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-5.7, +13.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain