Polymarket wallet record

0x220a...923b

PolymarketLive analyzer

Methodology: V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain

Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public on-chain Polymarket record. The statistics below are descriptive facts about the resolved history.

Sample quality: UsableEnough resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public on-chain behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Frozen research snapshot

On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 73 resolved positions with a win rate of 50.7% and a realized edge over entry prices of +2.5 probability points, 95% CI [-4.6, +9.3] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance.

Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.

The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.

Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...

Published cohort status

In the published top-50 Edge Score cohort artifact (refreshed 2026-06-13) with an Edge Score of 24.7 across 72 resolved positions. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past resolved record (calibration, conviction, discipline), pending out-of-sample forward-skill validation. It is not a forecast and not a skill verdict.

Calibration pct

21

Conviction pct

38

Discipline pct

28

See the full rankings · realized-edge scan of this cohort

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x220a...923b?
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 73 resolved positions with a win rate of 50.7% and a realized edge over entry prices of +2.5 probability points, 95% CI [-4.6, +9.3] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance. These are descriptive statistics of a frozen past snapshot, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x220a...923b skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill. Not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public on-chain behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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