Realized edge -1.1 probability points across 64 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-10.6, +8.2]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.
Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.
Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.
Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:
Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.
One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.
The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.
Recent observed trades
Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Published cohort status
Descriptive comparison with the published reference cohort.
In the published 50-wallet cohort artifact (rescored 2026-09-11) with an Edge Score of 13.7 across 143 scored resolved positions. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past resolved record (calibration, conviction, discipline), pending out-of-sample forward-skill validation. It is not a forecast and not a skill verdict.
This board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.
Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past record; the realized-edge read above is the outcome measure with its interval. They answer different questions and can point in different directions without contradiction.
The two counts come from two reads: the cohort rescore scored 143 positions on 2026-09-11, and the cached analyzer read at the top of this page scored 64 on 2026-06-29. Each counts only the positions its own Polymarket recent-trade window found resolved and could price, so the two reads need not see the same positions.
Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0959. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Cavaliers vs. Raptors (40.3% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
sports
64
45.3%
0.152
0.248
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
50-60%
8
62.5%
55.0%
60-70%
9
55.6%
65.0%
70-80%
6
100.0%
75.0%
80-90%
3
100.0%
85.0%
90-100%
3
100.0%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xe3d4...884e?
As of 2026-06-29 (74 days ago), Convexly's cached read shows 64 resolved positions, 29 wins and 35 losses (win rate 45.3%). Realized edge over entry prices: -1.1 probability points, 95% CI [-10.6, +8.2] (BCa bootstrap, n = 64 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xe3d4...884e skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge -1.1 probability points across 64 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-10.6, +8.2]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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