A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Headline statistics
Resolved positions
93
Wins / losses
49 / 44
Win rate
52.7%
Brier
0.089
Baseline Brier
0.249
Biggest-event share
29.8%
First position
2026-03-20
Fills analyzed
3,100
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1604. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...? (29.8% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
politics
51
49.0%
0.128
0.250
other
38
57.9%
0.018
0.244
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
50-60%
4
25.0%
55.0%
60-70%
5
80.0%
65.0%
70-80%
6
100.0%
75.0%
80-90%
10
90.0%
85.0%
90-100%
27
92.6%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x4d1b...1419?
As of 2026-05-25, Convexly's cached read shows 93 resolved positions, 49 wins and 44 losses (win rate 52.7%). No realized-edge interval is available in the cached read. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x4d1b...1419 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Convexly has no cached read for this wallet yet, so no skill-versus-luck read is published here. Run the free wallet analyzer to compute one from Polymarket's public trade record.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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