Wallet ledger

0xfbfd…0029

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

118

Realized PnL

-$56.56M

Win rate

Realized edge

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (84 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No	Open	34,021	95¢	$758	+2%	2026-10-01
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No	Open	759	61¢	$261	+56%	2027-01-01
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No	Open	1,267	77¢	$212	+22%	2026-12-31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No	Open	18,712	87¢	$159	+1%	2027-01-01
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No	Open	1,472	89¢	$88	+7%	2026-12-31
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	248	70¢	$51	+29%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No	Open	876	79¢	$50	+7%	2026-12-31
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? No	Open	150	66¢	$39	+40%	2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	400	90¢	$37	+10%	2026-09-01
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No	Open	287	77¢	$30	+13%	2026-12-31
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? No	Open	146	80¢	$24	+21%	2026-10-01
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,000	85¢	$20	+1%	2027-01-01
Obama federally charged before 2027? No	Open	371	89¢	$17	+5%	2026-12-31
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No	Open	210	88¢	$16	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No	Open	81	72¢	$16	+27%	2027-01-01
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027? No	Open	175	86¢	$16	+10%	2026-12-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No	Open	3,687	98¢	$13	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? No	Open	399	97¢	$11	+3%	2026-09-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes	Open	641	37¢	$10	+4%	2026-11-03
Will XRP reach $2.60 in August? No	Open	660	97¢	$9	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? No	Open	2,093	98¢	$9	+0%	2026-09-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	1,732	47¢	$9	+1%	2026-11-03
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? No	Open	26	68¢	$8	+46%	2027-01-01
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $460 in August? No	Open	168	93¢	$7	+5%	2026-09-01
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Open	150	89¢	$7	+5%	2026-01-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? No	Open	300	97¢	$7	+2%	2026-09-01
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August? No	Open	231	97¢	$6	+3%	2026-09-01
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in August? No	Open	200	94¢	$6	+3%	2026-09-01
Obama arrested before 2027? No	Open	151	93¢	$6	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in August? No	Open	286	97¢	$5	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? No	Open	121	30¢	$4	+10%	2027-10-01
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in August? No	Open	100	97¢	$3	+3%	2026-09-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No	Open	122	92¢	$3	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August? No	Open	500	99¢	$3	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in August? No	Open	100	95¢	$3	+3%	2026-09-01
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? Yes	Open	197	96¢	$2	+1%	2026-11-01
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	109	90¢	$2	+2%	2027-01-01
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	121	92¢	$2	+2%	2027-01-01
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	153	93¢	$2	+1%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No	Open	353	61¢	$2	+1%	2026-11-03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	7	76¢	$2	+31%	2026-09-01
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	80¢	$2	+19%	2027-01-01
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in August? No	Open	200	98¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-01
Tim Walz in jail by December 31? No	Open	150	94¢	$2	+1%	2026-03-31
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	235	50¢	$1	+1%	2026-11-03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August? No	Open	35	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-01
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August? No	Open	300	99¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in August? No	Open	130	99¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-01
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? No	Open	17	74¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No	Open	96	91¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will XRP reach $3.00 in August? No	Open	260	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	5	86¢	$0	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August? No	Open	83	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	9	49¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-03
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in August? No	Open	32	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in August? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in August? No	Open	29	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? No	Open	18	59¢	-$0	-1%	2027-04-01
Will XRP reach $2.80 in August? No	Open	1,200	97¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? No	Open	109	74¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $300 in August? No	Open	5	99¢	-$0	-9%	2026-09-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	44	52¢	-$1	-4%	2026-11-03
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No	Open	200	89¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-31
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	25	87¢	-$1	-6%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? Yes	Open	3	68¢	-$2	-95%	2026-12-31
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	100	35¢	-$2	-6%	2027-01-01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in August? No	Open	145	99¢	-$4	-3%	2026-09-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,000	94¢	-$5	-1%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	1,000	84¢	-$5	-1%	2026-12-31
Natural Disaster in 2026? No	Open	201	74¢	-$6	-4%	2026-12-31
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	155	92¢	-$7	-5%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by June 30, 2027? No	Open	217	51¢	-$8	-7%	2027-07-01
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No	Open	115	66¢	-$13	-17%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? No	Open	574	95¢	-$18	-3%	2026-10-01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,000	77¢	-$20	-3%	2027-01-01
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No	Open	300	70¢	-$25	-12%	2026-10-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	9,640	32¢	-$31	-1%	2026-09-16
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	13,822	12¢	-$104	-6%	2026-11-03
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? Yes	Open	148	94¢	-$124	-89%	2026-12-31
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No	Open	320	78¢	-$146	-58%	2026-12-31
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	266	65¢	-$163	-94%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	9,640	72¢	-$434	-6%	2026-09-16
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes	Open	69,053	50¢	-$34.4K	-99%	2026-11-03

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