A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Data updated 2026-08-21
Read coverage
Covers positions this wallet held to resolution (about 118 of 118 total positions). It screens out positions traded out before a market closed and can undercount redeemed winners, so it is not the wallet's full record.
Headline statistics
Resolved positions
118
Wins / losses
1 / 117
Win rate
0.9%
Brier
0.257
Baseline Brier
0.008
Fills analyzed
3,500
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.2481. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xfbfd...0029?
As of 2026-08-21, Convexly's cached read shows 118 resolved positions, 1 win and 117 losses (win rate 0.9%). No realized-edge interval is available in the cached read. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xfbfd...0029 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Convexly has no cached read for this wallet yet, so no skill-versus-luck read is published here. Run the free wallet analyzer to compute one from Polymarket's public trade record.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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