Wallet positions

0xa8c6…44e8

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$1.7K

Win rate

67.7%

Realized edge

+8.5 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +8.5 pp across 31 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.7, +22.9], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

398 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:24:34 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,820.5804	55.26¢	83.95¢	$9.9K	$8.1K	+51.9%	2026-10-05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Held	6,000.0098	79.6¢	81.5¢	$4.9K	$3.3K	+2.4%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3,650.6871	48.05¢	50.05¢	$1.8K	$2.6K	+4.2%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Held	6,803.6898	85.17¢	88¢	$6.0K	$2.4K	+3.3%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Held	2,500.0075	94.33¢	96.15¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	+1.9%	2027-01-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Held	3,888.8059	71.15¢	81¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	+13.8%	2027-01-01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	9,929.0908	95.43¢	95.55¢	$9.5K	$1.0K	+0.1%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	2,758.3336	65.69¢	71.5¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	+8.8%	2026-10-31
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Held	2,632.1296	91.11¢	96.45¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	1,055.9473	96.57¢	97.65¢	$1.0K	$921.99	+1.1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No	Held	4,291.7013	78.08¢	96.25¢	$4.1K	$903.38	+23.3%	2027-01-01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	7,156.2676	85.13¢	88.05¢	$6.3K	$818.63	+3.4%	2026-12-31
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes	Held	2,583.5758	24.97¢	24.5¢	$632.98	$787.01	-1.9%	2027-01-01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No	Held	3,120.5821	76.13¢	88.5¢	$2.8K	$729.74	+16.2%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Held	7,104.2001	59.15¢	63.5¢	$4.5K	$680.13	+7.3%	2026-11-04
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	5,139.2091	49.58¢	58.25¢	$3.0K	$659.61	+17.5%	2026-06-03
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Held	2,397.8138	88.83¢	94¢	$2.3K	$653.32	+5.8%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,756.7167	92.93¢	92.5¢	$2.5K	$637.35	-0.5%	2027-01-01
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Held	2,575.8641	82.25¢	96.7¢	$2.5K	$620.09	+17.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Held	1,000.0072	93.99¢	94.5¢	$945.01	$569.47	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Held	1,032.0221	84.28¢	90.5¢	$933.98	$566.39	+7.4%	2027-01-01
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No	Held	3,999.9537	77.05¢	89.45¢	$3.6K	$553.02	+16.1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No	Held	2,532.0458	76.12¢	95¢	$2.4K	$509.63	+24.8%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	2,624.1362	33.86¢	41.5¢	$1.1K	$494.98	+22.5%	2026-12-31
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	1,599.3332	47.33¢	45.2¢	$722.90	$453.89	-4.5%	2026-10-28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	5,235.3047	82.31¢	82.5¢	$4.3K	$441.23	+0.2%	2026-10-31
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5,433.46	88.47¢	95.5¢	$5.2K	$423.80	+7.9%	2027-01-01
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No	Held	1,751.4921	87.21¢	94.85¢	$1.7K	$373.89	+8.8%	2027-01-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	195.0077	38.46¢	55¢	$107.25	$368.31	+43.0%	2026-12-31
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No	Held	1,483.0641	88.56¢	95.85¢	$1.4K	$354.34	+8.2%	2027-01-01
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No	Held	1,156.4573	86.59¢	96.5¢	$1.1K	$353.08	+11.4%	2027-01-01
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	857.33	80.27¢	94.5¢	$810.18	$329.82	+17.7%	2027-01-01
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	0.41	6¢	0¢	$0.00	$328.48	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1,811.3303	72.99¢	83.5¢	$1.5K	$276.20	+14.4%	2028-01-01
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No	Held	1,507.9607	84.62¢	90.5¢	$1.4K	$265.06	+6.9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Held	1,027.5047	82.82¢	96.35¢	$990.00	$261.81	+16.3%	2027-01-01
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No	Held	144.3305	85.35¢	96.6¢	$139.42	$247.56	+13.2%	2027-01-29
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No	Held	894.75	72.34¢	97.45¢	$871.93	$232.52	+34.7%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Held	666.0485	78.86¢	95.5¢	$636.08	$232.04	+21.1%	2027-01-01
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	3,374.7783	4.79¢	6.05¢	$204.17	$231.57	+26.0%	2028-11-08
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	4,238.09	69.22¢	74.5¢	$3.2K	$223.58	+7.6%	2029-01-01
US recession by end of 2026? No	Held	2,500	86.29¢	93.5¢	$2.3K	$222.51	+8.3%	2027-01-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No	Held	3,806.2657	60.25¢	59¢	$2.2K	$219.86	-2.1%	2026-11-30
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3,036.2756	77.59¢	84.5¢	$2.6K	$219.09	+8.9%	2027-01-01
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No	Held	594.42	58¢	94.5¢	$561.73	$216.96	+62.9%	2027-01-01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No	Held	1,104.5437	85.79¢	89.5¢	$988.57	$211.57	+4.3%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	658.9557	65.13¢	66.5¢	$438.21	$206.67	+2.1%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	358.6154	62.45¢	74.5¢	$267.17	$195.17	+19.3%	2026-12-09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No	Held	1,000.011	93.99¢	94.5¢	$945.01	$186.64	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Held	743.906	24.99¢	20.5¢	$152.50	$177.06	-18.0%	2026-09-14
Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	1,089.2521	80.69¢	96.05¢	$1.0K	$174.41	+19.0%	2026-11-01
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes	Held	2,132.0624	60.44¢	66.5¢	$1.4K	$170.37	+10.0%	2026-12-31
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No	Held	129.8436	92.76¢	97.55¢	$126.66	$166.44	+5.2%	2027-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	387.0137	81.99¢	95.5¢	$369.60	$164.40	+16.5%	2027-01-01
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3,008.89	91.44¢	96.45¢	$2.9K	$162.48	+5.5%	2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	1,021.6766	52.57¢	63.5¢	$648.76	$155.63	+20.8%	2027-02-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No	Held	1,101.16	33.9¢	47.5¢	$523.05	$149.67	+40.1%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No	Held	2,049.5596	90.57¢	96.95¢	$2.0K	$144.64	+7.0%	2026-10-31
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Held	3,129.4315	69.51¢	71.5¢	$2.2K	$144.19	+2.9%	2026-11-04
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	12,401.907	2.59¢	3.05¢	$378.26	$142.04	+17.6%	2028-11-08
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Held	4,127.2893	94.64¢	96.35¢	$4.0K	$140.97	+1.8%	2026-11-04
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	999.993	27.5¢	41.5¢	$415.00	$140.00	+50.9%	2026-12-31
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,388.5645	95.99¢	97.2¢	$1.3K	$136.74	+1.3%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? Yes	Held	400.0098	84.99¢	90.5¢	$362.01	$135.59	+6.5%	2026-10-16
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? No	Held	273.9849	64.14¢	88.5¢	$242.48	$132.39	+38.0%	2026-10-11
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	188.1743	24.03¢	15.15¢	$28.51	$129.64	-37.0%	2028-11-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No	Held	1,000.0065	91.99¢	95.3¢	$953.01	$129.40	+3.6%	2026-11-01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No	Held	1,000	91¢	91.5¢	$915.00	$126.17	+0.5%	2027-07-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	2,328.2556	32.98¢	36.5¢	$849.81	$120.93	+10.6%	2026-12-01
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No	Held	183.58	82¢	89.7¢	$164.67	$118.94	+9.4%	2027-07-01
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Held	999.9814	85.46¢	91.45¢	$914.48	$114.10	+7.0%	2027-01-01
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? Yes	Held	500	46¢	68.5¢	$342.50	$112.50	+48.9%	2030-01-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	3,303.3168	55.59¢	65¢	$2.1K	$112.32	+16.9%	2028-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Held	2,500.0009	92.18¢	91.5¢	$2.3K	$110.02	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No	Held	1,216.54	76.02¢	83.5¢	$1.0K	$107.89	+9.8%	2026-10-31
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No	Held	758.7027	82.39¢	96.45¢	$731.77	$106.63	+17.1%	2027-01-01
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No	Held	4,399.99	93.06¢	89.5¢	$3.9K	$105.86	-3.8%	2026-11-01
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Held	700	74.82¢	89.4¢	$625.80	$102.00	+19.5%	2028-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Held	1,195.1586	91.5¢	93.5¢	$1.1K	$101.80	+2.2%	2026-11-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Held	500.0077	92.99¢	95.95¢	$479.76	$99.10	+3.2%	2027-01-01
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	958.88	86.99¢	95.5¢	$915.73	$96.16	+9.8%	2027-01-01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,498.1968	84.87¢	95.8¢	$2.4K	$96.12	+12.9%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,500.0063	79.11¢	86.5¢	$1.3K	$95.47	+9.3%	2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Held	1,267.2766	91.48¢	94.5¢	$1.2K	$92.70	+3.3%	2027-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	487.19	40¢	59¢	$287.44	$92.57	+47.5%	2027-03-14
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No	Held	999.9914	85.12¢	91.5¢	$914.99	$90.00	+7.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	4,000	91.5¢	91.5¢	$3.7K	$90.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No	Held	2,097.0698	84.99¢	89.05¢	$1.9K	$85.06	+4.8%	2027-01-01
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No	Held	605.5407	82.38¢	96.2¢	$582.53	$83.65	+16.8%	2027-01-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	2,001.56	65.17¢	69.3¢	$1.4K	$82.55	+6.3%	2026-10-31
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No	Held	330.6383	80.99¢	97.1¢	$321.05	$77.93	+19.9%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No	Held	1,321.9471	90.62¢	93.5¢	$1.2K	$73.03	+3.2%	2026-11-01
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	1,208.55	88.97¢	95¢	$1.1K	$72.84	+6.8%	2027-01-01
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Held	420.6142	75.32¢	92.5¢	$389.07	$72.23	+22.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No	Held	374.9976	65.39¢	84¢	$315.00	$69.25	+28.4%	2027-01-01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	2,068.0183	73.56¢	77.5¢	$1.6K	$66.28	+5.4%	2027-01-01
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No	Held	1,299.9857	91.15¢	96.15¢	$1.2K	$64.96	+5.5%	2026-11-20
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No	Held	597.6028	85¢	93¢	$555.77	$63.66	+9.4%	2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Held	3,077.4821	95.47¢	95.25¢	$2.9K	$63.65	-0.2%	2027-01-08
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Held	979.9909	80.48¢	85¢	$832.99	$62.69	+5.6%	2027-04-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Held	400	54¢	69.5¢	$278.00	$62.00	+28.7%	2027-01-05
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,000	89.5¢	95.5¢	$955.00	$60.00	+6.7%	2027-01-01
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No	Held	579.0626	91.92¢	94.5¢	$547.21	$58.91	+2.8%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No	Held	500	83.1¢	94.55¢	$472.75	$57.25	+13.8%	2028-01-01
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027? No	Held	188.95	90.42¢	99.1¢	$187.25	$55.75	+9.6%	2027-01-01
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No	Held	877.1624	91¢	96.4¢	$845.58	$53.51	+5.9%	2027-01-01
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No	Held	194.3566	70¢	96.25¢	$187.07	$51.02	+37.5%	2027-01-01
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? No	Held	412.74	62.99¢	75¢	$309.56	$50.04	+19.0%	2027-01-01
Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	422	87.16¢	98.8¢	$416.94	$49.12	+13.4%	2026-11-01
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes	Held	1,000	90.49¢	95.4¢	$954.00	$49.00	+5.4%	2026-12-01
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? No	Held	833.1058	84.72¢	89.5¢	$745.63	$48.08	+5.6%	2026-10-13
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Held	399.9954	78¢	89.5¢	$358.00	$46.00	+14.7%	2027-01-01
Kash Patel out by December 31? No	Held	700	74¢	80.5¢	$563.50	$45.50	+8.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	1,000.0268	63.5¢	64.5¢	$645.02	$45.00	+1.6%	2026-11-04
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No	Held	105.7287	85¢	95.55¢	$101.02	$44.81	+12.4%	2027-01-01
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No	Held	41.1174	83.99¢	87.5¢	$35.98	$44.18	+4.2%	2027-07-01
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No	Held	2,235	86.04¢	88¢	$2.0K	$43.81	+2.3%	2027-01-01
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? No	Held	400	87¢	97.9¢	$391.60	$43.60	+12.5%	2027-01-01
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Held	813.5867	66.29¢	71.5¢	$581.71	$42.34	+7.9%	2026-12-31
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31? No	Held	219.16	82.99¢	98.25¢	$215.32	$40.31	+18.4%	2026-11-01
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No	Held	891.7356	82.16¢	85.5¢	$762.43	$39.36	+4.1%	2027-01-01
Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? No	Held	392.54	80.69¢	87.5¢	$343.47	$38.77	+8.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No	Held	385.7049	76.5¢	77.5¢	$298.92	$37.57	+1.3%	2028-01-01
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No	Held	199.9955	73¢	91.5¢	$183.00	$37.00	+25.3%	2027-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	1,060.0042	59.17¢	62.5¢	$662.50	$35.51	+5.6%	2027-01-01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No	Held	1,000	88.5¢	90.5¢	$905.00	$35.00	+2.3%	2027-01-01
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? Yes	Held	258.1958	49.99¢	62¢	$160.08	$34.14	+24.0%	2026-10-26
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? No	Held	249	49¢	61.5¢	$153.13	$31.13	+25.5%	2026-10-26
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	300.0032	81.99¢	85.5¢	$256.50	$31.09	+4.3%	2026-10-26
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31? No	Held	425.7876	90.97¢	98.55¢	$419.61	$30.52	+8.3%	2026-11-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? No	Held	516.9915	91.04¢	93.4¢	$482.87	$30.16	+2.6%	2026-10-16
Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	280	87.64¢	98.05¢	$274.54	$29.14	+11.9%	2026-11-01
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? No	Held	538.39	87.14¢	92.5¢	$498.01	$28.84	+6.1%	2027-01-01
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes	Held	310.6459	31.49¢	38.5¢	$119.60	$28.45	+22.2%	2027-01-01
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? No	Held	469.41	87.55¢	91.5¢	$429.51	$28.36	+4.5%	2026-11-01
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	137.53	75.87¢	93¢	$127.90	$28.35	+22.6%	2026-11-01
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic	Held	500	86¢	91.5¢	$457.50	$27.50	+6.4%	2027-01-05
Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? Yes	Held	400	78¢	84.6¢	$338.40	$26.40	+8.5%	2027-06-07
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	10,100	0.3¢	0.55¢	$55.55	$24.84	+80.9%	2028-11-08
No one announced as next James Bond? No	Held	499.9914	76.9¢	80.85¢	$404.24	$24.75	+5.1%	2027-01-01
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No	Held	73.0666	85¢	89¢	$65.03	$22.92	+4.7%	2026-12-31
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	77¢	81.5¢	$407.50	$22.50	+5.8%	2027-01-01
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? No	Held	100	78¢	96.85¢	$96.85	$18.85	+24.2%	2027-01-01
Amazon announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	67.17	70.23¢	97.55¢	$65.52	$18.82	+38.9%	2026-11-01
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	191.84	88.17¢	97.25¢	$186.56	$18.21	+10.3%	2026-11-01
Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 9? No	Held	79.25	94¢	99.45¢	$78.81	$18.05	+5.8%	2026-10-10
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? No	Held	236.909	89¢	96.45¢	$228.50	$17.65	+8.4%	2027-01-01
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	88¢	91.5¢	$457.50	$17.50	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Held	500	87¢	90.5¢	$452.50	$17.50	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	287.99	91.7¢	97.7¢	$281.37	$17.26	+6.5%	2026-11-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026? No	Held	100	90¢	99.4¢	$99.40	$16.08	+10.4%	2026-10-05
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Held	228	90.1¢	97.05¢	$221.27	$15.85	+7.7%	2027-01-01
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No	Held	500	94¢	97.05¢	$485.25	$15.25	+3.2%	2027-01-01
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Held	800	96.26¢	97.7¢	$781.60	$15.00	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31? No	Held	887.623	86.72¢	88.5¢	$785.55	$14.75	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No	Held	375.0088	90.49¢	92.5¢	$346.88	$14.38	+2.2%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? Yes	Held	1,574.9885	13.2¢	14.5¢	$228.37	$14.26	+9.8%	2026-11-16
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No	Held	500	89.4¢	92.2¢	$461.00	$14.00	+3.1%	2028-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	4,500.0007	97.26¢	97¢	$4.4K	$13.62	-0.3%	2026-12-09
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Held	423.5668	95.3¢	98.45¢	$417.00	$13.34	+3.3%	2026-12-31
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? No	Held	123.23	75.76¢	86.5¢	$106.59	$13.23	+14.2%	2030-01-01
Will CNN fly with Trump by October 15? No	Held	200	89¢	95.6¢	$191.20	$13.20	+7.4%	2026-10-16
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? No	Held	620	84.38¢	86.5¢	$536.30	$13.10	+2.5%	2026-10-23
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Held	500	90¢	92.5¢	$462.50	$12.50	+2.8%	2027-01-01
DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	169.98	89.75¢	94.5¢	$160.63	$12.39	+5.3%	2026-11-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	68.3947	62¢	79.5¢	$54.37	$11.97	+28.2%	2026-10-31
Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? Yes	Held	24.25	5¢	7¢	$1.70	$11.70	+40.0%	2026-11-01
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	153.9904	57¢	64.5¢	$99.32	$11.55	+13.2%	2028-11-08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Held	667.21	96.1¢	97.75¢	$652.20	$11.34	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Held	437.69	93¢	95.5¢	$417.99	$10.94	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Held	520	90¢	92¢	$478.40	$10.40	+2.2%	2027-01-01
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Held	644.98	91.3¢	92.9¢	$599.19	$10.30	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	25.49¢	26.5¢	$265.00	$10.00	+3.9%	2026-11-04
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	2,000	74¢	74.5¢	$1.5K	$10.00	+0.7%	2029-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	58¢	57.5¢	$575.00	$10.00	-0.9%	2026-11-04
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	96.5¢	98.5¢	$492.50	$10.00	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	485.6015	96.29¢	98.15¢	$476.62	$9.13	+1.9%	2027-01-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200	89.5¢	94¢	$188.00	$9.00	+5.0%	2026-12-31
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No	Held	48.5741	78.21¢	96.55¢	$46.90	$8.91	+23.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	250	59¢	61.5¢	$153.75	$8.75	+4.2%	2026-11-04
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? No	Held	353.7	87.96¢	88.5¢	$313.02	$8.33	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? No	Held	80.909	89¢	99¢	$80.10	$8.09	+11.2%	2026-11-01
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No	Held	649.995	94.3¢	95.5¢	$620.75	$7.75	+1.3%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Held	308.48	62¢	64.5¢	$198.97	$7.71	+4.0%	2027-01-28
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes	Held	27	63.3¢	91.75¢	$24.77	$7.68	+44.9%	2027-02-01
Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? No	Held	1,336.43	89.68¢	90.25¢	$1.2K	$7.55	+0.6%	2026-10-13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No	Held	500	66.49¢	68.5¢	$342.50	$7.50	+3.0%	2027-01-28
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? No	Held	500	89¢	90.5¢	$452.50	$7.50	+1.7%	2027-07-01
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027? No	Held	500	89¢	90.5¢	$452.50	$7.50	+1.7%	2027-07-01
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	500.0138	71¢	71.5¢	$357.51	$7.50	+0.7%	2026-11-04
Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	77.45	89.09¢	96.95¢	$75.09	$7.31	+8.8%	2026-11-01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No	Held	50	84¢	87.5¢	$43.75	$7.22	+4.2%	2028-01-01
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	91¢	94.6¢	$189.20	$7.20	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Held	500	96¢	97.4¢	$487.00	$7.00	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No	Held	113.5922	91¢	97.15¢	$110.35	$6.99	+6.8%	2027-01-01
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? Yes	Held	99.7948	2¢	0.55¢	$0.55	$6.76	-72.5%	2026-11-01
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No	Held	225	93.2¢	96.15¢	$216.34	$6.64	+3.2%	2027-01-01
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	80.4¢	79.5¢	$397.50	$6.27	-1.1%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	265.32	93.7¢	95.9¢	$254.44	$5.84	+2.3%	2027-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	418.8827	39¢	39.5¢	$165.46	$5.34	+1.3%	2027-07-01
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No	Held	1,470.5067	72.66¢	73¢	$1.1K	$5.29	+0.5%	2027-01-04
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	252.17	94.47¢	96.55¢	$243.47	$5.24	+2.2%	2026-12-31
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? No	Held	194.3411	74¢	74.5¢	$144.78	$5.12	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Held	105.4	92¢	96.8¢	$102.03	$5.06	+5.2%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1,000	92¢	92.5¢	$925.00	$5.00	+0.5%	2028-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	72¢	72.5¢	$725.00	$5.00	+0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	300	94¢	95.5¢	$286.50	$4.50	+1.6%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? No	Held	341.2269	97.4¢	98.5¢	$336.11	$4.50	+1.1%	2027-01-28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Yes	Held	75.31	22¢	27.5¢	$20.71	$4.14	+25.0%	2027-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No	Held	724.0825	77.58¢	82¢	$593.75	$4.13	+5.7%	2027-01-01
Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026? No	Held	259.71	90.1¢	91.6¢	$237.89	$3.90	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31? No	Held	143.1055	83.41¢	84¢	$120.21	$3.88	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	258	83¢	84.5¢	$218.01	$3.87	+1.8%	2029-01-01
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No	Held	500	95.4¢	96¢	$480.00	$3.00	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will Republicans win young men in the midterms? No	Held	23.7037	73¢	85.5¢	$20.27	$2.96	+17.1%	2026-11-07
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	191.07	15¢	16.5¢	$31.53	$2.87	+10.0%	2028-01-01
Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	21	81.99¢	95¢	$19.95	$2.73	+15.9%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026? No	Held	100	92.2¢	94.9¢	$94.90	$2.70	+2.9%	2026-10-19
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No	Held	141.7267	66.98¢	65.5¢	$92.83	$2.31	-2.2%	2027-01-01
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No	Held	500	97.1¢	97.55¢	$487.75	$2.25	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,499.994	97.3¢	97.45¢	$1.5K	$2.25	+0.2%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Held	1,456.0429	92.62¢	94.5¢	$1.4K	$2.03	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? No	Held	200	80¢	81¢	$162.00	$2.00	+1.3%	2026-10-13
US recession by end of 2027? No	Held	99.59	65¢	66.5¢	$66.23	$1.49	+2.3%	2027-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	207.2354	98.39¢	98.85¢	$204.85	$1.34	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No	Held	25.3543	81.4¢	77.9¢	$19.75	$1.33	-4.3%	2028-01-01
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No	Held	5.2631	81¢	99.45¢	$5.23	$0.97	+22.8%	2027-02-01
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	4.91	96.5¢	99.1¢	$4.87	$0.85	+2.7%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	25	92.2¢	95.55¢	$23.89	$0.84	+3.6%	2028-01-01
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027? No	Held	30	92¢	94.5¢	$28.35	$0.75	+2.7%	2027-04-01
Natural Disaster in 2026? No	Held	3.8461	74¢	93.5¢	$3.60	$0.75	+26.3%	2027-03-01
Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? No	Held	120	94¢	94.5¢	$113.40	$0.60	+0.5%	2026-10-13
Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? No	Held	3.62	85¢	95.5¢	$3.46	$0.38	+12.4%	2030-01-01
Iran coup attempt by December 31? No	Held	65.4545	89¢	89.5¢	$58.58	$0.33	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Held	324.7113	94.8¢	94.9¢	$308.15	$0.32	+0.1%	2026-12-31
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? No	Held	45.9902	96.18¢	96.4¢	$44.33	$0.10	+0.2%	2026-12-31
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes	Held	6.12	98¢	99.5¢	$6.09	$0.09	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	1,972.9542	9.65¢	9.2¢	$181.51	$0.03	-4.7%	2026-10-31
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	4,000	91.5¢	91.5¢	$3.7K	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No	Held	1,000	91.5¢	91.5¢	$915.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? Yes	Held	99.834	63¢	63¢	$62.90	$0.00	0.0%	2027-11-01
Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? Yes	Held	230	4¢	4¢	$9.20	$0.00	0.0%	2026-10-13
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	100	0.71¢	0.65¢	$0.65	-$0.07	-9.3%	2028-11-07
Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina? No	Redeemable	1.0989	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.10	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028? Yes	Held	0.6	64¢	45.5¢	$0.27	-$0.11	-28.9%	2027-12-31
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Redeemable	1	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.16	-100.0%	2026-08-25
Will Karsten Schneider win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? Yes	Redeemable	1.2282	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.18	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? Yes	Held	60	15¢	14.5¢	$8.70	-$0.30	-3.3%	2027-08-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	200	62¢	61.5¢	$123.00	-$1.00	-0.8%	2027-07-01
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18? Yes	Redeemable	2.7419	38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.04	-100.0%	2026-09-18
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	1,157.35	32.9¢	32.8¢	$379.61	-$1.16	-0.3%	2027-01-01
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,234.07	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.23	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	40	84¢	80.5¢	$32.20	-$1.40	-4.2%	2026-11-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Yes	Held	30	46¢	39.5¢	$11.85	-$1.95	-14.1%	2026-10-31
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? No	Held	163.9	36.61¢	33.5¢	$54.91	-$2.33	-8.5%	2027-01-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? No	Held	120	38.66¢	36.5¢	$43.80	-$2.60	-5.6%	2026-10-18
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	200	72.7¢	71.3¢	$142.60	-$2.80	-1.9%	2026-11-01
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	89¢	87.5¢	$175.00	-$3.00	-1.7%	2026-12-31
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No	Held	147.3075	31.26¢	29¢	$42.72	-$3.34	-7.3%	2029-01-20
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	10.8¢	10.35¢	$103.50	-$3.42	-4.2%	2028-11-08
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	90¢	96.55¢	$193.10	-$3.81	+7.3%	2027-01-01
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	92.5¢	91.7¢	$458.50	-$4.00	-0.9%	2027-01-01
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? No	Held	400	76.5¢	75.5¢	$302.00	-$4.00	-1.3%	2026-12-31
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	80¢	76¢	$76.00	-$4.00	-5.0%	2026-12-31
Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31? Yes	Held	35.5321	59.5¢	59.5¢	$21.14	-$4.11	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	953.38	72¢	71.5¢	$681.67	-$4.77	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader? No	Held	20	49¢	24.5¢	$4.90	-$4.90	-50.0%	2027-02-01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000.0054	42.49¢	34.5¢	$345.00	-$5.00	-18.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Held	999.9942	72¢	71.5¢	$715.00	-$5.00	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	1,000	74¢	73.5¢	$735.00	-$5.00	-0.7%	2029-01-01
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	88¢	85.5¢	$171.00	-$5.00	-2.8%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,039.8361	86.38¢	86.5¢	$899.46	-$5.07	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? Yes	Redeemable	106.25	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.31	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	525	92.5¢	91.5¢	$480.38	-$5.63	-1.1%	2026-12-31
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026? Yes	Held	146.97	74¢	78¢	$114.64	-$6.85	+5.4%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Held	733.68	89.79¢	93.5¢	$685.99	-$7.43	+4.1%	2026-12-01
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	1,274.1732	28.82¢	22.5¢	$286.69	-$7.47	-21.9%	2027-07-01
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Held	819.73	84.13¢	87.5¢	$717.26	-$7.62	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? Yes	Held	300	43¢	35.5¢	$106.50	-$8.50	-17.4%	2027-01-01
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? No	Held	1,700.81	88.2¢	86¢	$1.5K	-$8.56	-2.5%	2027-01-01
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow? Yes	Redeemable	33.06	27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.93	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026? No	Held	534.26	90.21¢	88.5¢	$472.82	-$9.02	-1.9%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	77.49¢	76.5¢	$765.00	-$10.00	-1.3%	2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? Yes	Held	59.999	89.5¢	72.75¢	$43.65	-$10.05	-18.7%	2027-01-01
ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	514.5653	91.82¢	96¢	$493.98	-$10.13	+4.5%	2026-11-01
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	200	30.99¢	25.5¢	$51.00	-$11.00	-17.7%	2027-07-01
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No	Held	500	86¢	83.5¢	$417.50	-$12.50	-2.9%	2027-01-01
Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	200	7¢	0.45¢	$0.90	-$13.10	-93.6%	2027-03-14
Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election? Yes	Redeemable	25.22	62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.74	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes	Held	2,323.6092	76.13¢	75.5¢	$1.8K	-$14.87	-0.8%	2027-01-05
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 Yes	Redeemable	100	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.00	-100.0%	2026-12-01
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? Yes	Redeemable	36.371	46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.05	-100.0%	2026-09-16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No	Held	194.4336	52¢	43.5¢	$84.58	-$16.42	-16.3%	2026-11-16
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	3,738.0814	1.64¢	0.85¢	$31.77	-$18.48	-48.2%	2027-04-19
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	1,224.47	64.07¢	62.5¢	$765.29	-$19.23	-2.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	40.49¢	38.5¢	$385.00	-$20.00	-4.9%	2026-11-04
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026? No	Held	400	79.49¢	74.5¢	$298.00	-$20.00	-6.3%	2027-01-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes	Held	199.99	64¢	53¢	$105.99	-$22.00	-17.2%	2026-11-30
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Held	1,041.8444	89.59¢	87¢	$906.40	-$27.07	-2.9%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	700	93.12¢	95.4¢	$667.80	-$27.20	+2.4%	2026-12-31
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	199.99	17.5¢	3.45¢	$6.90	-$28.10	-80.3%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Held	2,700.7593	14.54¢	9.5¢	$256.57	-$29.37	-34.7%	2026-12-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes	Held	3,999.99	26.83¢	26.5¢	$1.1K	-$30.00	-1.2%	2027-01-05
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	2,000	83¢	81.5¢	$1.6K	-$30.00	-1.8%	2029-01-01
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 No	Redeemable	100	30¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.00	-100.0%	2026-12-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	477.2544	38.89¢	32.5¢	$155.11	-$30.10	-16.4%	2026-12-01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	2,842.2918	64.49¢	63.5¢	$1.8K	-$32.63	-1.6%	2026-11-04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No	Held	3,826.0862	78.84¢	79.5¢	$3.0K	-$32.74	+0.8%	2026-11-01
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Held	400	85¢	75.5¢	$302.00	-$38.00	-11.2%	2027-03-14
Will Trump say "Cuba" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? No	Redeemable	100	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.00	-100.0%	2026-09-22
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	188.7096	23.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.53	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	277	42¢	26.5¢	$73.41	-$42.94	-36.9%	2027-01-01
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027? No	Held	3,555.24	80.76¢	79.5¢	$2.8K	-$44.80	-1.6%	2028-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	3,540.0451	11.13¢	6.95¢	$246.03	-$44.89	-37.6%	2028-11-08
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,175.6738	18.14¢	17.5¢	$205.74	-$45.07	-3.6%	2027-04-19
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	2,198.0159	90.68¢	90.5¢	$2.0K	-$45.36	-0.2%	2028-01-01
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? Yes	Redeemable	81.8481	56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.83	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? Yes	Held	180.3822	50.49¢	23.5¢	$42.39	-$48.60	-53.5%	2026-11-01
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? Yes	Held	356.71	17.25¢	2.35¢	$8.38	-$50.44	-86.4%	2027-02-01
Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31? Yes	Held	148	48.5¢	17.5¢	$25.90	-$54.91	-63.9%	2026-11-01
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	921.276	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$60.34	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? No	Held	386.6144	91.94¢	97.35¢	$376.37	-$62.20	+5.9%	2026-11-01
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.996	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.50	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes	Held	765.5123	86.18¢	78¢	$597.10	-$62.65	-9.5%	2026-12-10
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	80	79.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$63.24	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Trump say "Russia" during his remarks in North Carolina? No	Redeemable	105.8253	61.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.41	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will Trump say "Furniture" during his remarks in North Carolina? Yes	Redeemable	100	76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$76.00	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026? No	Held	799.97	68.99¢	58¢	$463.98	-$87.99	-15.9%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	499.9975	13.69¢	5.7¢	$28.50	-$92.00	-58.4%	2028-01-01
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No	Held	1,549.9799	81.39¢	75.65¢	$1.2K	-$92.01	-7.1%	2028-04-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	810.1856	70.27¢	70¢	$567.13	-$93.94	-0.4%	2027-04-01
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	146.43	33.76¢	9.7¢	$14.20	-$96.69	-71.3%	2028-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	1,898.8912	67.4¢	64.5¢	$1.2K	-$101.51	-4.3%	2026-11-30
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? No	Held	400	43.5¢	17¢	$68.00	-$106.00	-60.9%	2026-10-16
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	200	59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$118.00	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? No	Redeemable	400	29.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$118.00	-100.0%	2026-09-22
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	3,530.7544	40.54¢	34.5¢	$1.2K	-$118.84	-14.9%	2026-11-04
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	245.4	61.81¢	63.5¢	$155.83	-$126.88	+2.7%	2027-02-01
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) No	Redeemable	200	66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$132.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? No	Redeemable	200	70¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.00	-100.0%	2026-11-01
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? No	Redeemable	199.9907	73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$145.99	-100.0%	2026-10-03
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his rally in Oklahoma? Yes	Redeemable	199.9945	76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$152.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	559.99	80.17¢	80.5¢	$450.79	-$155.40	+0.4%	2026-12-31
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? No	Held	540.4867	65.55¢	34.5¢	$186.47	-$160.69	-47.4%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No	Held	500	88¢	91.5¢	$457.50	-$162.50	+4.0%	2026-11-01
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? No	Redeemable	264.7478	63.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$167.19	-100.0%	2026-09-22
Will Trump say "Bully" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? No	Redeemable	290.377	58.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$168.63	-100.0%	2026-09-22
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes	Held	3,285.6924	78.96¢	78.5¢	$2.6K	-$182.55	-0.6%	2026-12-16
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	12,033.76	11.16¢	9.5¢	$1.1K	-$200.84	-14.9%	2028-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes	Held	4,999.9641	32.24¢	27.5¢	$1.4K	-$234.97	-14.7%	2026-11-04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	260.9996	93.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$243.08	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	3,419.2393	34.21¢	25.5¢	$871.91	-$261.51	-25.5%	2027-01-01
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Held	734.3771	83.94¢	91.5¢	$671.96	-$272.23	+9.0%	2027-01-01
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No	Held	500.0066	55¢	17.5¢	$87.50	-$282.50	-68.2%	2026-12-31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes	Held	900.0081	45.11¢	37¢	$333.00	-$288.14	-18.0%	2027-01-01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	3,823.991	75.36¢	70.85¢	$2.7K	-$288.55	-6.0%	2027-01-01
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No	Held	459.9622	88.76¢	95.5¢	$439.26	-$311.06	+7.6%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	3,348.4362	67.38¢	70.5¢	$2.4K	-$351.01	+4.6%	2026-12-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,948.3184	23.45¢	22.5¢	$663.37	-$351.59	-4.1%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No	Held	999.9915	54.49¢	16.5¢	$165.00	-$379.99	-69.7%	2027-01-05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	96.9356	82.95¢	84.5¢	$81.91	-$402.72	+1.9%	2026-10-29
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	583.8716	38.39¢	48.55¢	$283.47	-$426.23	+26.4%	2028-11-08
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	6,562.4882	67.65¢	63.5¢	$4.2K	-$448.62	-6.1%	2026-10-28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	3,066.3319	57.24¢	38.5¢	$1.2K	-$581.59	-32.7%	2026-12-31
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? No	Redeemable	700	89.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$624.00	-100.0%	2026-07-30
Will Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee? No	Redeemable	29,999.9539	2.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$630.00	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No	Held	19.5225	91.99¢	96.75¢	$18.89	-$677.99	+5.2%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? No	Redeemable	1,059.98	67.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$707.82	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Redeemable	2,111.2843	28.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$782.30	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,900.004	37.84¢	27.5¢	$522.50	-$783.36	-27.3%	2026-10-31
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No	Held	500.0119	98.12¢	98.2¢	$491.01	-$812.03	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by July 27? Yes	Redeemable	2,270.2872	12.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$822.94	-100.0%	2026-07-28
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,509.8362	55.32¢	41.5¢	$1.5K	-$829.18	-25.0%	2026-06-03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,523.7951	85.49¢	90.5¢	$1.4K	-$844.37	+5.8%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	1,031.7653	59.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$911.80	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	2,951.56	82.5¢	83.5¢	$2.5K	-$1.0K	+1.2%	2026-10-29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No	Held	4,557.6877	88.69¢	91.5¢	$4.2K	-$1.3K	+3.2%	2026-10-16
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,030.4998	41.9¢	20.05¢	$1.0K	-$1.3K	-52.2%	2028-11-08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	999.2507	77.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-10-31
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,982.5188	85.59¢	93.5¢	$1.9K	-$1.4K	+9.2%	2027-01-01
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? No	Redeemable	2,066.1613	69.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-10-16
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5,192.2458	81.51¢	81.5¢	$4.2K	-$1.8K	-0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500.0166	93¢	87.5¢	$437.51	-$2.0K	-5.9%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Held	540.008	85.6¢	88.5¢	$477.91	-$2.0K	+3.4%	2027-01-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,949.9917	90.56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.3K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Held	7,286.1329	85.77¢	83.05¢	$6.1K	-$4.0K	-3.2%	2026-09-14
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? Yes	Redeemable	581.529	88.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-15
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Held	945.8022	92.43¢	93.5¢	$884.33	-$4.3K	+1.2%	2027-01-04
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	13,814.6435	27.87¢	15.5¢	$2.1K	-$5.7K	-44.4%	2026-10-05
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No	Held	699.992	92.94¢	95.1¢	$665.69	-$11.9K	+2.3%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	14,862.6691	30.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.7K	-100.0%	2026-09-16

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