Wallet ledger

0xa8c6…44e8

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$1.7K

Win rate

68%

Realized edge

+0.085

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.085 across 31 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.01, +0.23]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (237 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Open	13,772	74¢	$1.9K	+19%	2026-12-31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Open	8,468	68¢	$1.0K	+18%	2026-12-31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	26,329	65¢	$653	+4%	2026-09-16
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No	Open	4,092	78¢	$584	+18%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	7,152	91¢	$506	+8%	2026-09-01
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Open	3,336	82¢	$434	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No	Open	2,532	76¢	$339	+18%	2026-12-31
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Open	7,783	91¢	$336	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	79¢	$278	+18%	2026-12-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	2,834	78¢	$224	+10%	2026-12-31
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No	Open	2,278	84¢	$220	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No	Open	594	58¢	$193	+56%	2027-01-01
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No	Open	895	72¢	$176	+27%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Open	4,156	80¢	$173	+5%	2027-01-01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No	Open	1,837	86¢	$159	+10%	2027-01-01
US recession by end of 2026? No	Open	500	61¢	$158	+52%	2027-01-31
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	2,725	87¢	$156	+7%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes	Open	6,307	87¢	$154	+3%	2026-08-31
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No	Open	1,298	87¢	$151	+13%	2026-12-31
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31? No	Open	833	80¢	$143	+21%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No	Open	2,000	91¢	$134	+7%	2026-09-30
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Open	2,263	66¢	$131	+9%	2026-11-03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Yes	Open	1,738	80¢	$130	+9%	2026-09-30
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Open	509	60¢	$125	+41%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,089	82¢	$115	+13%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No	Open	2,034	87¢	$114	+6%	2026-10-31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	19,160	83¢	$105	+1%	2026-12-31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No	Open	3,665	96¢	$103	+3%	2026-09-01
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? No	Open	1,343	92¢	$101	+8%	2026-08-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,498	77¢	$99	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	666	79¢	$97	+19%	2026-12-31
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No	Open	4,572	95¢	$95	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes	Open	500	75¢	$95	+25%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes	Open	3,000	94¢	$86	+3%	2026-08-31
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No	Open	1,921	69¢	$85	+6%	2027-01-01
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,393	91¢	$84	+4%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Open	400	54¢	$76	+35%	2027-01-01
Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31? No	Open	847	89¢	$75	+10%	1970-01-01
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No	Open	2,369	85¢	$72	+4%	2027-01-08
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	500	79¢	$70	+18%	2026-12-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No	Open	1,500	91¢	$68	+5%	2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No	Open	1,503	93¢	$67	+5%	2026-09-01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	2,775	80¢	$66	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No	Open	1,000	83¢	$65	+8%	2026-12-31
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No	Open	2,460	80¢	$65	+3%	2026-12-31
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Open	4,635	92¢	$65	+2%	2026-12-31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	2,398	89¢	$64	+3%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No	Open	4,100	96¢	$64	+2%	2026-09-01
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	1,046	77¢	$63	+8%	2026-08-31
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	1,209	89¢	$61	+6%	2026-12-31
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No	Open	759	82¢	$58	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	1,515	72¢	$56	+5%	2026-12-31
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	584	38¢	$52	+23%	2028-11-07
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	93¢	$52	+6%	2026-08-31
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No	Open	331	81¢	$50	+19%	2026-03-31
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Open	2,000	92¢	$50	+3%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? Yes	Open	1,200	94¢	$48	+4%	2026-08-25
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No	Open	598	85¢	$48	+9%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No	Open	2,336	95¢	$45	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	1,503	64¢	$43	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? No	Open	1,500	88¢	$40	+3%	2026-12-31
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No	Open	676	81¢	$40	+7%	2027-01-01
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No	Open	1,052	93¢	$35	+4%	2027-01-01
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No	Open	1,000	91¢	$35	+4%	2027-01-01
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	801	94¢	$35	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No	Open	3,396	71¢	$33	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No	Open	1,610	97¢	$32	+2%	2026-10-01
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No	Open	194	70¢	$32	+24%	2026-04-30
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? No	Open	500	91¢	$31	+7%	2026-09-30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Open	2,949	91¢	$30	+1%	2027-01-01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Open	400	78¢	$28	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	600	79¢	$27	+6%	2026-12-31
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No	Open	4,642	83¢	$26	+1%	2026-12-31
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No	Open	200	73¢	$26	+18%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	2,000	96¢	$25	+1%	2028-11-07
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	2,030	22¢	$25	+6%	2028-11-07
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Open	2,663	96¢	$25	+1%	2026-12-31
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	193	77¢	$24	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	1,490	94¢	$23	+2%	2026-11-03
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Open	1,500	87¢	$23	+2%	2026-11-03
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Open	1,671	63¢	$21	+2%	2026-11-01
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No	Open	184	82¢	$21	+14%	2027-06-30
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	2,000	69¢	$20	+1%	2026-09-30
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	3,500	47¢	$20	+1%	2026-11-03
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? Yes	Open	225	87¢	$19	+10%	2027-01-01
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? Yes	Open	598	97¢	$19	+3%	2026-08-22
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No	Open	1,105	86¢	$19	+2%	2026-12-31
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? No	Open	400	87¢	$18	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? No	Open	734	95¢	$18	+3%	2026-09-01
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No	Open	1,000	87¢	$17	+2%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	600	88¢	$17	+3%	2027-07-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Yes	Open	75	22¢	$16	+98%	2026-12-31
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? No	Open	800	92¢	$16	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No	Open	142	67¢	$16	+16%	2027-01-01
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? No	Open	237	89¢	$15	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027? No	Open	189	90¢	$15	+9%	1970-01-01
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026? No	Open	1,000	96¢	$15	+2%	2026-10-01
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Open	228	90¢	$14	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No	Open	700	95¢	$14	+2%	2026-10-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No	Open	700	87¢	$14	+2%	2026-11-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Open	456	90¢	$13	+3%	2026-12-31
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No	Open	460	89¢	$13	+3%	2026-12-31
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? No	Open	354	88¢	$13	+4%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	445	91¢	$12	+3%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes	Open	300	63¢	$12	+6%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No	Open	1,000	97¢	$12	+1%	1970-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No	Open	527	97¢	$11	+2%	2026-09-01
Kash Patel out by December 31? No	Open	700	74¢	$11	+2%	2027-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Open	500	88¢	$10	+2%	2027-01-01
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No	Open	500	83¢	$10	+2%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	200	83¢	$9	+5%	2026-12-31
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No	Open	49	78¢	$8	+22%	2027-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No	Open	452	96¢	$8	+2%	2026-10-01
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes	Open	2,500	96¢	$8	+0%	2026-12-31
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No	Open	106	85¢	$8	+9%	2026-12-31
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes	Open	400	31¢	$8	+6%	2026-12-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Open	498	73¢	$8	+2%	2026-10-31
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No	Open	1,500	75¢	$8	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No	Open	500	86¢	$8	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,845	5¢	$7	+3%	2028-11-07
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31? No	Open	697	35¢	$7	+3%	2026-10-31
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes	Open	27	63¢	$7	+39%	2026-11-03
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,589	96¢	$6	+0%	2026-03-31
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No	Open	114	91¢	$6	+6%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by October 31? No	Open	540	92¢	$6	+1%	2026-11-01
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Open	340	89¢	$5	+2%	2026-12-01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,000	92¢	$5	+1%	2027-01-01
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Open	421	75¢	$5	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August? No	Open	200	95¢	$5	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	191	15¢	$5	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in August? No	Open	71	91¢	$5	+7%	2026-08-31
Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? Yes	Open	20	75¢	$5	+30%	2026-09-13
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Open	500	96¢	$4	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	500	16¢	$4	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Open	241	96¢	$4	+2%	2026-12-31
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	42	80¢	$4	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	294	94¢	$4	+1%	2026-10-10
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No	Open	135	93¢	$4	+3%	2026-11-08
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027? No	Open	500	89¢	$3	+1%	2027-07-01
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	91¢	$3	+1%	2026-12-31
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	487	40¢	$2	+1%	2027-03-14
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Open	51	78¢	$2	+6%	2027-01-03
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	26	64¢	$2	+14%	2026-12-31
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 60 minutes long? No	Open	500	96¢	$2	+0%	2026-08-27
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? No	Open	413	63¢	$2	+1%	2026-12-31
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No	Open	500	93¢	$2	+0%	2026-12-31
Iran coup attempt by December 31? No	Open	65	89¢	$2	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No	Open	2,500	98¢	$2	+0%	2027-07-01
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,600	96¢	$1	+0%	2026-12-31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? No	Open	51	96¢	$1	+2%	2026-10-01
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No	Open	97	96¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No	Open	147	31¢	$1	+2%	2029-01-20
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Open	667	96¢	$1	+0%	2026-12-31
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-03-31
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No	Open	6	70¢	$1	+19%	2027-01-01
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No	Open	5	81¢	$1	+15%	2027-02-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	500	94¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No	Open	20	92¢	$0	+3%	2027-01-01
What will be the next Fed rate change? Cut	Open	45	41¢	$0	+2%	2028-12-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No	Open	200	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No	Open	61	91¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	1	16¢	$0	+91%	2026-08-11
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Open	5	97¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? No	Open	2	1¢	$0	+42%	2026-08-25
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No	Open	4	95¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No	Open	1,000	54¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Natural Disaster in 2026? No	Open	4	74¢	-$0	-3%	2026-12-31
Will Karsten Schneider win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? Yes	Open	1	15¢	-$0	-89%	2026-09-13
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Open	105	92¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31? Yes	Open	1,236	0¢	-$1	-50%	2026-08-31
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30? No	Open	20	80¢	-$2	-10%	2026-09-30
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Open	1,636	96¢	-$2	-0%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	71	54¢	-$2	-6%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	9	41¢	-$2	-63%	2026-11-01
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Open	500	90¢	-$3	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	2,000	31¢	-$3	-0%	2026-08-11
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	200	62¢	-$3	-2%	2027-03-14
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,500	3¢	-$4	-8%	2026-09-01
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No	Open	2,041	91¢	-$5	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	10,000	2¢	-$5	-2%	2028-11-07
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Open	1,000	82¢	-$5	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	10,000	4¢	-$5	-1%	2026-12-31
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Open	520	90¢	-$5	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	3,540	96¢	-$6	-0%	2026-10-04
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? No	Open	100	78¢	-$7	-8%	2026-12-31
Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	200	7¢	-$7	-46%	2027-03-14
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	188	24¢	-$7	-15%	2028-11-07
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Open	424	95¢	-$7	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	200	90¢	-$7	-4%	2027-04-30
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No	Open	800	90¢	-$8	-1%	2026-11-19
Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	49	47¢	-$9	-38%	2026-12-31
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	2,445	6¢	-$12	-8%	2026-12-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Open	277	42¢	-$12	-11%	2026-12-31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	5,480	33¢	-$13	-1%	2026-10-04
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Open	414	67¢	-$15	-5%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,000	16¢	-$21	-13%	2026-12-31
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No	Open	1,000	86¢	-$25	-3%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Open	1,000	93¢	-$25	-3%	2026-12-09
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	2,061	66¢	-$27	-2%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? Yes	Open	2,017	81¢	-$30	-2%	2026-09-15
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? Yes	Open	300	43¢	-$32	-24%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,000	32¢	-$35	-11%	2026-12-09
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? Yes	Open	357	17¢	-$36	-58%	2027-02-01
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	87¢	-$36	-21%	2027-01-01
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	400	85¢	-$38	-11%	2027-03-14
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	4,318	78¢	-$40	-1%	2028-11-07
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	49¢	-$45	-9%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No	Open	1,101	34¢	-$49	-13%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	1,157	33¢	-$54	-14%	2026-12-31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	4,488	64¢	-$54	-2%	2026-10-04
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	13¢	-$55	-42%	2026-12-31
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No	Open	500	62¢	-$57	-19%	2026-12-31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	7,150	87¢	-$66	-1%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No	Open	2,191	79¢	-$73	-4%	2026-10-01
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	1,193	42¢	-$101	-20%	2026-09-30
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long? No	Open	762	80¢	-$104	-17%	2026-08-27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? No	Open	4,020	81¢	-$107	-3%	2026-09-22
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	59¢	-$113	-96%	2026-12-31
Fed rate hike in 2026? No	Open	3,397	49¢	-$119	-7%	2026-12-09
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	2,587	15¢	-$119	-30%	2028-11-07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	2,000	57¢	-$120	-10%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? Yes	Open	4,797	66¢	-$137	-4%	2027-04-01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	2,138	48¢	-$137	-13%	2026-12-31
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	4,490	38¢	-$138	-8%	2026-12-31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,149	21¢	-$142	-60%	2028-11-07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	4,000	35¢	-$144	-10%	2026-09-16
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? No	Open	2,023	35¢	-$145	-21%	2026-09-30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	5,030	74¢	-$145	-4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No	Open	4,231	87¢	-$157	-4%	2027-07-01
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No	Open	500	55¢	-$185	-67%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? No	Open	3,800	93¢	-$199	-6%	2026-09-08
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Open	675	39¢	-$201	-76%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	5,097	29¢	-$220	-15%	2027-07-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? No	Open	5,709	73¢	-$256	-6%	2026-10-01
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No	Open	1,000	57¢	-$276	-48%	2026-09-16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	13,270	50¢	-$365	-5%	2026-11-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	3,600	29¢	-$835	-81%	2027-01-01

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