Wallet ledger

0x7c3d…5c6b

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$6.9K

Win rate

66%

Realized edge

-0.011

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.011 across 44 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.09, +0.03]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (189 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	400,000	50¢	$106.6K	+53%	2028-11-07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	84,899	80¢	$3.1K	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Open	11,680	75¢	$2.4K	+28%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	10,000	8¢	$615	+77%	2028-11-07
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? Yes	Open	2,886	57¢	$452	+28%	2026-09-30
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? Yes	Open	3,754	71¢	$335	+13%	2026-09-15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	11,500	22¢	$274	+11%	2026-10-01
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Open	8,211	92¢	$213	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes	Open	7,093	24¢	$183	+11%	2027-01-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No	Open	5,862	22¢	$176	+14%	2026-09-30
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Yes	Open	2,000	58¢	$171	+15%	2027-01-01
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	900	82¢	$162	+22%	2026-08-18
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No	Open	450	57¢	$151	+59%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	2,549	12¢	$144	+46%	2026-09-15
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,000	91¢	$130	+7%	2025-12-31
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	77,776	1¢	$117	+19%	2028-11-07
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes	Open	5,555	69¢	$109	+3%	2026-12-31
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes	Open	1,000	19¢	$105	+55%	2026-01-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Open	6,576	31¢	$95	+5%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	1,692	7¢	$92	+77%	2026-09-08
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Open	7,314	95¢	$89	+1%	2026-12-31
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? No	Open	516	64¢	$81	+25%	2027-01-01
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No	Open	725	82¢	$81	+14%	2026-12-31
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Open	2,110	79¢	$79	+5%	2027-01-03
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	8,962	3¢	$78	+30%	2028-11-07
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Open	5,000	87¢	$75	+2%	2026-11-03
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No	Open	1,072	92¢	$72	+7%	2026-12-31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Open	2,616	78¢	$72	+4%	2026-12-31
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? No	Open	99	31¢	$64	+208%	2026-09-01
NATO dissolves before 2027? No	Open	1,605	93¢	$63	+4%	2026-12-31
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No	Open	2,220	92¢	$63	+3%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	3,809	87¢	$57	+2%	2026-11-03
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Open	1,111	20¢	$50	+22%	2027-01-01
Trump goes to space in 2026? No	Open	1,676	95¢	$48	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	8,482	97¢	$46	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Open	1,127	93¢	$40	+4%	2027-12-31
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	777	90¢	$39	+6%	2026-11-03
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? Yes	Open	716	76¢	$39	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? No	Open	1,000	90¢	$35	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	6,080	96¢	$30	+1%	2027-01-01
Iran coup attempt by December 31? No	Open	1,901	90¢	$29	+2%	2027-01-01
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes	Open	485	82¢	$29	+7%	2026-11-30
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Open	550	93¢	$24	+5%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31? Yes	Open	3,333	63¢	$24	+1%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Open	781	95¢	$23	+3%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No	Open	2,200	74¢	$23	+1%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? No	Open	550	93¢	$22	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No	Open	324	81¢	$20	+8%	2027-01-01
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026? No	Open	83	61¢	$20	+39%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? No	Open	9,363	99¢	$19	+0%	2026-09-01
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? No	Open	76	65¢	$18	+37%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? Yes	Open	1,185	20¢	$18	+8%	2026-09-22
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? Yes	Open	300	27¢	$15	+19%	2026-12-31
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 24, 2026? No	Open	20	20¢	$14	+345%	1970-01-01
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No	Open	755	96¢	$13	+2%	2026-12-31
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes	Open	1,520	38¢	$13	+2%	2026-09-01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes	Open	500	30¢	$13	+8%	2026-12-31
Will no press briefing air by August 31? Yes	Open	68	5¢	$12	+366%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes	Open	1,215	80¢	$12	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No	Open	34	62¢	$11	+54%	2026-12-31
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No	Open	905	62¢	$11	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes	Open	555	65¢	$11	+3%	2027-01-01
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No	Open	527	95¢	$11	+2%	2026-12-31
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Open	4,483	98¢	$10	+0%	2027-01-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? No	Open	904	98¢	$10	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No	Open	21	41¢	$10	+111%	2027-01-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	74¢	$9	+1%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes	Open	402	92¢	$8	+2%	2027-01-01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	223	89¢	$7	+4%	2026-09-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Open	200	23¢	$7	+15%	2027-01-01
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No	Open	3,844	63¢	$7	+0%	2026-10-01
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Open	4,000	97¢	$6	+0%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No	Open	1,111	90¢	$6	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No	Open	9,900	98¢	$5	+0%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No	Open	98	87¢	$5	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Open	901	91¢	$5	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? No	Open	100	93¢	$4	+5%	2026-09-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? No	Open	317	81¢	$4	+2%	2026-09-15
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? No	Open	19	57¢	$4	+39%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? No	Open	20	68¢	$4	+30%	2026-09-15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	200	30¢	$3	+5%	2026-10-01
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? Yes	Open	40	92¢	$3	+8%	2026-11-03
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? No	Open	25	88¢	$3	+13%	1970-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Open	5,000	96¢	$3	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Open	395	94¢	$2	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Bahrain by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	13¢	$2	+92%	2026-08-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No	Open	105	96¢	$2	+2%	2026-09-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	305	9¢	$2	+6%	2026-09-30
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No	Open	161	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-01
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No	Open	1,000	82¢	$1	+0%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No	Open	200	94¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-30
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? No	Open	200	93¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	7¢	$1	+7%	2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Open	200	92¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Open	198	90¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-01
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? No	Open	35	92¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No	Open	31	81¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Open	196	15¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	90¢	$1	+4%	2026-08-31
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? No	Open	20	83¢	$1	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No	Open	5	80¢	$1	+14%	2026-12-31
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No	Open	207	89¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	6¢	$0	+8%	2026-08-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	10	10¢	$0	+10%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? No	Open	3	96¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-15
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in August? No	Open	5	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No	Open	5	88¢	$0	+1%	2027-12-31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Open	10,000	93¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Open	400	89¢	$0	0%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by October 31? Yes	Open	1,027	7¢	$0	0%	2026-11-01
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No	Open	50	88¢	$0	0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic	Open	4	96¢	-$0	-0%	2027-12-31
Will Global Esports Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026? Yes	Open	4	11¢	-$0	-5%	1970-01-01
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? No	Open	33	89¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	66¢	-$0	-3%	2026-08-31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes	Open	9	9¢	-$0	-58%	2026-12-31
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No	Open	2,000	97¢	-$1	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Syria by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	6¢	-$1	-59%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target Oman by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	7	30¢	-$2	-84%	2026-09-15
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Open	400	90¢	-$2	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	6,788	1¢	-$3	-4%	2028-11-07
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by August 31? No	Open	777	91¢	-$4	-1%	2026-09-01
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? Yes	Open	1,332	9¢	-$4	-4%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	10	51¢	-$5	-88%	2026-09-30
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	824	84¢	-$5	-1%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? No	Open	600	88¢	-$5	-1%	2026-09-08
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	13	42¢	-$5	-90%	1970-01-01
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes	Open	392	47¢	-$6	-3%	2026-12-31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes	Open	163	11¢	-$7	-36%	2026-09-01
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30? No	Open	272	83¢	-$7	-3%	2026-10-01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No	Open	5,000	96¢	-$7	-0%	2026-12-31
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,000	95¢	-$8	-1%	2027-01-01
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	40	32¢	-$8	-64%	2026-08-31
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No	Open	2,000	96¢	-$10	-1%	2026-12-31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	8,200	93¢	-$11	-0%	2027-01-01
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,000	90¢	-$12	-1%	2027-01-01
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No	Open	1,965	84¢	-$13	-1%	2026-12-31
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? Yes	Open	81	24¢	-$14	-73%	2026-09-30
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	259	7¢	-$14	-80%	2026-08-31
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Open	3,000	93¢	-$15	-1%	2026-12-31
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No	Open	3,000	94¢	-$15	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? No	Open	150	88¢	-$16	-12%	2026-09-01
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Open	2,000	96¢	-$16	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Open	3,333	97¢	-$18	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Solana reach $100 in August? Yes	Open	597	65¢	-$18	-5%	2026-09-01
Iran leadership change by September 30? Yes	Open	1,311	5¢	-$18	-29%	2026-10-01
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes	Open	1,381	57¢	-$21	-3%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	6,828	1¢	-$21	-29%	2026-09-30
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long? No	Open	581	7¢	-$22	-56%	2026-08-27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	934	19¢	-$23	-13%	2026-12-31
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Open	1,013	29¢	-$24	-8%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,878	4¢	-$24	-23%	2026-09-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Open	5,000	94¢	-$25	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? No	Open	306	10¢	-$30	-99%	2026-08-17
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	7¢	-$34	-47%	2026-09-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	3,333	36¢	-$35	-3%	2026-12-31
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	249	32¢	-$39	-50%	2026-01-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? No	Open	2,200	4¢	-$43	-53%	2026-08-25
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long? No	Open	799	9¢	-$46	-65%	2026-08-27
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Open	1,169	22¢	-$49	-19%	2026-12-31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	2,000	94¢	-$50	-3%	2026-12-31
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes	Open	229	45¢	-$51	-49%	2026-12-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes	Open	1,837	8¢	-$52	-35%	2026-09-01
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	20,444	3¢	-$60	-11%	2028-11-07
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? No	Open	1,000	93¢	-$61	-7%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	8,322	3¢	-$74	-29%	2026-10-01
Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Open	172	61¢	-$75	-72%	2026-12-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Open	1,029	15¢	-$89	-57%	2026-10-01
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Yes	Open	500	24¢	-$93	-79%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	29,764	1¢	-$104	-32%	2028-11-07
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes	Open	2,195	16¢	-$108	-31%	2026-11-19
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Yes	Open	295	77¢	-$111	-49%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Open	20,550	6¢	-$112	-9%	2026-09-30
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	19¢	-$125	-66%	2026-01-31
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	5,774	27¢	-$158	-10%	2027-01-01
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes	Open	996	26¢	-$164	-62%	2026-12-31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes	Open	1,000	32¢	-$175	-55%	2026-12-31
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes	Open	685	51¢	-$178	-51%	2026-12-31
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes	Open	1,000	43¢	-$181	-42%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	13,800	3¢	-$208	-47%	2026-09-01
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes	Open	3,477	16¢	-$238	-42%	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes	Open	2,000	17¢	-$258	-77%	2027-01-01
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Yes	Open	6,982	6¢	-$268	-60%	2026-09-01
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,906	13¢	-$434	-70%	2026-08-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	21,302	12¢	-$444	-18%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	6,834	40¢	-$1.2K	-42%	2027-01-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	20,000	18¢	-$1.9K	-54%	2028-11-07
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Open	13,000	53¢	-$3.3K	-47%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	400,000	50¢	-$106.6K	-53%	2028-11-07

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