Wallet positions

0x7c3d…5c6b

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

130

Realized PnL

$9.6K

Win rate

60.0%

Realized edge

-0.6 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -0.6 pp across 130 resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.4, +1.7], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

367 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:20:40 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Held	335,000	50¢	79.95¢	$267.8K	$100.3K	+59.9%	2028-11-08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	80,033.4341	84.29¢	84.5¢	$67.6K	$32.7K	+0.2%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Held	13,331.9789	77.65¢	96.15¢	$12.8K	$4.5K	+23.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Held	40,000.0475	93.14¢	94.5¢	$37.8K	$3.9K	+1.5%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? No	Held	4,135.5415	11¢	9.5¢	$392.88	$2.2K	-13.6%	2026-10-16
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	30,486.3912	3.54¢	4.45¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+25.6%	2028-11-08
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Held	2,000.0212	95.99¢	96.7¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes	Held	1,000.0187	31.99¢	8.5¢	$85.00	$1.5K	-73.4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No	Held	40,032.88	74.85¢	78.5¢	$31.4K	$1.5K	+4.9%	2030-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	15,278.39	7.94¢	6.95¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	-12.6%	2028-11-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	320.2494	11.92¢	4.7¢	$15.05	$1.1K	-60.6%	2026-11-01
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Held	172.6421	88.99¢	93.5¢	$161.42	$919.88	+5.1%	2027-01-04
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5,000	94.99¢	97.65¢	$4.9K	$832.51	+2.8%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,499.9574	14.99¢	13.5¢	$337.49	$814.22	-10.0%	2027-01-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	2,683.0045	36.2¢	58.25¢	$1.6K	$754.62	+60.9%	2026-06-03
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	12,060.9923	95.89¢	96.85¢	$11.7K	$743.73	+1.0%	2027-01-01
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No	Held	9,900.0045	97.99¢	98.75¢	$9.8K	$700.79	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,143.8252	6.53¢	6.3¢	$72.06	$589.27	-3.6%	2027-04-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	9,999.9472	8¢	13.15¢	$1.3K	$515.00	+64.4%	2028-11-08
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes	Held	999.5115	19.02¢	28.5¢	$284.86	$487.62	+49.8%	2027-01-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes	Held	13,196.7367	9.25¢	12.5¢	$1.6K	$482.48	+35.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	11,423.6323	91.48¢	92.5¢	$10.6K	$441.58	+1.1%	2028-01-01
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	20,443.5083	2.74¢	3.05¢	$623.53	$420.87	+11.2%	2028-11-08
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Held	8,211.1119	92.4¢	96.45¢	$7.9K	$392.01	+4.4%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No	Held	2,362.0082	96.97¢	96.85¢	$2.3K	$351.35	-0.1%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Held	9,999.9933	88.99¢	91.5¢	$9.1K	$250.01	+2.8%	2026-11-04
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000.0008	1.9¢	1.45¢	$14.50	$233.77	-23.7%	2026-10-11
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026? No	Held	83.3405	60.59¢	91¢	$75.84	$224.57	+50.2%	2027-01-01
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes	Held	399.98	14.55¢	9.5¢	$38.00	$219.52	-34.7%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,763.22	7¢	7.5¢	$132.24	$215.18	+7.1%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Held	1,633.8467	5.5¢	4.5¢	$73.52	$214.34	-18.2%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	15.59¢	36¢	$360.00	$204.00	+130.8%	2027-01-01
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,000.0015	90.97¢	97.25¢	$1.9K	$186.03	+6.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No	Held	449.61	57¢	96.55¢	$434.10	$177.82	+69.4%	2027-01-02
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Held	400	38.75¢	80¢	$320.00	$165.00	+106.5%	2026-09-07
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No	Held	600.0777	65.81¢	72.5¢	$435.06	$150.06	+10.1%	2027-01-01
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,000.006	90.21¢	92¢	$920.01	$147.51	+2.0%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3,000.13	23.06¢	22.5¢	$675.03	$146.14	-2.5%	2027-01-01
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,541.2641	67.25¢	74.5¢	$1.1K	$142.38	+10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes	Held	392	46.91¢	81¢	$317.52	$133.62	+72.7%	2026-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No	Held	5,150.0582	91¢	92.5¢	$4.8K	$129.79	+1.6%	2027-07-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes	Held	445.1232	4.17¢	5.5¢	$24.48	$120.27	+31.6%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No	Held	403.3612	62.27¢	80¢	$322.69	$118.37	+28.5%	2027-01-02
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Held	6,394.89	93.87¢	95.7¢	$6.1K	$116.61	+1.9%	2027-01-05
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes	Held	5.0189	50.98¢	37¢	$1.86	$109.30	-27.4%	2027-01-01
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31? No	Held	20.0689	71¢	40.5¢	$8.13	$102.58	-43.0%	2026-11-01
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No	Held	2,231.89	91.66¢	96.25¢	$2.1K	$102.29	+5.0%	2027-01-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Held	5,000	94¢	95.95¢	$4.8K	$97.50	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes	Held	9.3324	8.89¢	1.95¢	$0.18	$96.59	-78.1%	2027-01-01
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31? No	Held	204.0413	49.42¢	60.5¢	$123.44	$93.61	+22.4%	2026-11-01
NATO dissolves before 2027? No	Held	1,605	92.99¢	98.55¢	$1.6K	$89.13	+6.0%	2027-01-01
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No	Held	724.92	82.3¢	95.05¢	$689.04	$89.07	+15.5%	2027-01-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,900	64.99¢	69.3¢	$1.3K	$87.70	+6.6%	2026-10-31
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No	Held	3,000	94¢	96.9¢	$2.9K	$87.00	+3.1%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No	Held	11,790.3	80.84¢	81.5¢	$9.6K	$76.95	+0.8%	2030-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200.1565	4.98¢	5.5¢	$11.01	$68.49	+10.3%	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Held	0.4996	96.08¢	97.75¢	$0.49	$65.00	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	10,860	83.92¢	84.5¢	$9.2K	$62.90	+0.7%	2029-01-01
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1,752.2802	79.11¢	80.5¢	$1.4K	$61.14	+1.8%	2028-01-01
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	6,788.3405	1.4¢	2.3¢	$156.13	$61.09	+64.3%	2028-11-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? No	Held	8,422.8133	28.77¢	29.5¢	$2.5K	$60.65	+2.5%	2028-01-01
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes	Held	433.5911	82.45¢	95.4¢	$413.65	$60.13	+15.7%	2026-12-01
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	58,332.052	0.8¢	0.9¢	$524.99	$58.33	+12.5%	2028-11-08
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Held	266.27	93.44¢	96.4¢	$256.68	$56.97	+3.2%	2028-01-01
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? No	Held	1,000	90¢	95.5¢	$955.00	$55.00	+6.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No	Held	33.5194	62¢	96.35¢	$32.30	$52.20	+55.4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes	Held	390.12	75¢	78.5¢	$306.24	$51.02	+4.7%	2026-12-16
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	7,064.34	48.05¢	46.5¢	$3.3K	$50.74	-3.2%	—
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	30,000	81.33¢	81.5¢	$24.4K	$50.00	+0.2%	2029-01-01
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Held	776.9975	90.2¢	96.35¢	$748.64	$47.79	+6.8%	2026-11-04
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	200	89.35¢	97.55¢	$195.10	$46.47	+9.2%	2027-01-01
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No	Held	1,000	90¢	94.5¢	$945.00	$45.00	+5.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9¢	11.5¢	$57.50	$43.17	+27.8%	2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Held	1,000.0008	92.99¢	94.5¢	$945.00	$41.00	+1.6%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Held	895.5	90.99¢	95.5¢	$855.20	$40.39	+4.9%	2027-04-01
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200.2975	7.7¢	7.85¢	$15.72	$40.23	+1.9%	2027-01-01
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No	Held	0.4407	81.5¢	97.65¢	$0.43	$38.91	+19.8%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No	Held	200.61	92.36¢	94.85¢	$190.28	$34.52	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	172.74	75.1¢	94.05¢	$162.46	$32.73	+25.2%	2026-11-01
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? Yes	Held	299.99	27.39¢	23.5¢	$70.50	$31.91	-14.2%	2027-01-01
Trump goes to space in 2026? No	Held	3,897.6021	97.02¢	97.75¢	$3.8K	$29.79	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Held	615.57	97.8¢	97.75¢	$601.72	$28.24	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? No	Held	499.9986	7.69¢	9.5¢	$47.50	$27.70	+23.4%	2026-11-01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	800	38.12¢	41.5¢	$332.00	$27.00	+8.9%	2026-06-03
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No	Held	324.38	81.3¢	89.5¢	$290.32	$26.60	+10.1%	2027-01-01
Will Excelsior be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie? No	Held	494.91	90.5¢	95.85¢	$474.37	$26.47	+5.9%	2027-07-01
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Held	2,000	96.1¢	97.4¢	$1.9K	$26.00	+1.4%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before the midterms? Yes	Held	84.75	63.23¢	93.2¢	$78.99	$25.39	+47.4%	2026-11-03
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	853.3616	68.17¢	71¢	$605.89	$25.16	+4.1%	2026-12-01
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	5,000	88¢	88.5¢	$4.4K	$25.00	+0.6%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	160	5.49¢	20.5¢	$32.80	$24.00	+272.7%	2026-11-04
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes	Held	318.7666	70.78¢	78¢	$248.64	$23.00	+10.2%	2027-01-01
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? No	Held	100	80¢	61.5¢	$61.50	$22.97	-23.1%	2026-10-16
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	151.97	64.89¢	80¢	$121.58	$22.96	+23.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 5%-10%? No	Held	82.47	69.24¢	90.5¢	$74.64	$22.88	+30.7%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Held	676.87	95.07¢	97.85¢	$662.32	$22.77	+2.9%	2028-01-01
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Held	549.6454	93.24¢	97.85¢	$537.83	$21.64	+4.9%	2027-01-01
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028? No	Held	281.85	77.38¢	84.5¢	$238.16	$20.07	+9.2%	2026-12-31
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No	Held	648.6766	68.66¢	71.5¢	$463.80	$18.37	+4.1%	2027-08-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No	Held	400.0038	92.99¢	94.5¢	$378.00	$18.00	+1.6%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	982.0122	31¢	32.5¢	$319.15	$17.73	+4.8%	2027-04-01
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100.0154	78.49¢	81.5¢	$81.51	$16.75	+3.8%	2026-12-31
Will Fortuna Sittard be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie? No	Held	248	89.64¢	96.2¢	$238.58	$16.26	+7.3%	2027-07-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%? No	Held	116.54	66.76¢	80.5¢	$93.81	$16.01	+20.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 35%-40%? No	Held	58.12	65¢	91.5¢	$53.18	$15.40	+40.8%	2026-11-04
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No	Held	754.97	96.16¢	98.15¢	$741.00	$14.96	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No	Held	527.2066	94.99¢	97.55¢	$514.29	$13.49	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	5	63.62¢	88¢	$4.40	$12.98	+38.3%	2026-11-04
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	154.4266	74¢	74.5¢	$115.05	$12.20	+0.7%	2029-01-01
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	927.29	3.3¢	4.6¢	$42.66	$12.05	+39.4%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	777	94¢	95.5¢	$742.03	$11.65	+1.6%	2026-12-31
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Held	3,562.2873	96.73¢	97.05¢	$3.5K	$11.35	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No	Held	21.1711	41¢	92¢	$19.48	$10.80	+124.4%	2027-01-01
Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Held	400	88.85¢	91.5¢	$366.00	$10.58	+3.0%	2028-01-01
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? No	Held	75.6098	64.82¢	89¢	$67.29	$10.46	+37.3%	2027-01-01
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Held	415.28	95.35¢	97.6¢	$405.31	$10.38	+2.4%	2028-01-01
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026? No	Held	74.73	46.85¢	60.5¢	$45.21	$10.20	+29.1%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 5%-10%? Yes	Held	175.03	8.68¢	14.5¢	$25.38	$10.18	+66.9%	2026-11-04
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	6.41¢	6.95¢	$2.78	$10.02	+8.3%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes	Held	46.2362	51.06¢	56.5¢	$26.12	$9.67	+10.6%	2026-11-16
Will the next elected US president be a woman? Yes	Held	236.9727	15.53¢	19.5¢	$46.21	$9.41	+25.6%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%? No	Held	84.13	67.71¢	78.5¢	$66.04	$9.07	+15.9%	2026-11-04
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	2.59¢	2.75¢	$137.50	$7.51	+5.8%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 0%-10%? Yes	Held	100	1¢	7.55¢	$7.55	$6.55	+655.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 18% or more? Yes	Held	119.9843	1.16¢	6.55¢	$7.86	$6.46	+461.5%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes	Held	890.8717	15¢	15.5¢	$138.09	$6.45	+3.3%	2029-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 15%-20%? Yes	Held	20	4¢	35.5¢	$7.10	$6.30	+787.5%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms? Yes	Held	20	48¢	78.5¢	$15.70	$6.10	+63.5%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	39.9965	17.49¢	32.5¢	$13.00	$6.00	+85.7%	2026-11-04
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No	Held	4,650.39	91.41¢	91.5¢	$4.3K	$5.87	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Held	347	87.99¢	89.5¢	$310.56	$5.21	+1.7%	2028-01-01
Will Go Ahead Eagles be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie? No	Held	72	90¢	96.9¢	$69.77	$4.97	+7.7%	2027-07-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 50% or more? Yes	Held	100	1.1¢	5.8¢	$5.80	$4.70	+427.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Held	61.33	1.78¢	9.4¢	$5.76	$4.67	+427.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%? Yes	Held	20	4¢	26.5¢	$5.30	$4.50	+562.5%	2026-11-04
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? No	Held	19.19	57¢	82¢	$15.74	$4.45	+43.9%	2027-01-01
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027? No	Held	944	95.11¢	95.55¢	$901.99	$4.14	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-08 House election by 0%-40%? Yes	Held	247	2.9¢	4.5¢	$11.12	$3.93	+54.7%	2026-11-04
Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	91.6567	3¢	3¢	$2.75	$3.92	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 50%-55%? Yes	Held	16.98	0.7¢	23.1¢	$3.92	$3.80	+3199.9%	2026-11-04
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31? No	Held	160	90.62¢	92.5¢	$148.00	$3.00	+2.1%	2026-11-01
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes	Held	300	12¢	13¢	$39.00	$3.00	+8.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 15%-20%? No	Held	220	71.15¢	72.5¢	$159.50	$2.95	+1.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	558.3553	74¢	74.5¢	$415.97	$2.79	+0.7%	2026-12-09
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 0%-5%? No	Held	41	90¢	95.85¢	$39.30	$2.40	+6.5%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	154.04	1¢	2.55¢	$3.93	$2.39	+155.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 10%-15%? No	Held	20	83¢	94.45¢	$18.89	$2.29	+13.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	10	6¢	27.5¢	$2.75	$2.15	+358.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	77.87	10¢	12.75¢	$9.93	$2.14	+27.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 30%-35%? Yes	Held	20	14¢	24.5¢	$4.90	$2.10	+75.0%	2026-11-04
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2028? Yes	Held	153.2042	7.13¢	8.5¢	$13.02	$2.10	+19.2%	2028-01-01
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No	Held	407.91	75¢	75.5¢	$307.97	$2.04	+0.7%	2030-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Michigan before the midterms? Yes	Held	396.39	95.48¢	96¢	$380.53	$2.04	+0.5%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	20	3¢	13.1¢	$2.62	$2.02	+336.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 5%-10%? Yes	Held	36.7225	7¢	12.5¢	$4.59	$2.02	+78.6%	2026-11-04
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	78.5¢	79.5¢	$159.00	$2.00	+1.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 25%-30%? Yes	Held	40	22.49¢	27.5¢	$11.00	$2.00	+22.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 15%-20%? Yes	Held	14	18¢	32¢	$4.48	$1.96	+77.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 30% or more? No	Held	28.44	86.4¢	93.15¢	$26.49	$1.92	+7.8%	2026-11-04
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	20	12¢	21.5¢	$4.30	$1.90	+79.2%	2026-12-01
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? No	Held	20	90¢	99¢	$19.80	$1.80	+10.0%	2027-01-01
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? No	Held	20	83¢	92¢	$18.40	$1.80	+10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2028? No	Held	501.2	91.16¢	91.5¢	$458.60	$1.69	+0.4%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 40%-45%? No	Held	19.48	87¢	95.65¢	$18.63	$1.69	+9.9%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before the midterms? Yes	Held	29.09	88.31¢	94¢	$27.34	$1.65	+6.4%	2026-11-03
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? No	Held	32.84	88.77¢	93.5¢	$30.71	$1.55	+5.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%? No	Held	20	83¢	90.5¢	$18.10	$1.50	+9.0%	2026-11-04
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31? Yes	Held	100	6¢	7.5¢	$7.50	$1.50	+25.0%	2026-11-01
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	100	6¢	7.5¢	$7.50	$1.50	+25.0%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before the midterms? Yes	Held	92.98	96.07¢	97.65¢	$90.79	$1.46	+1.6%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 60% or more? No	Held	16.9	89¢	96.1¢	$16.24	$1.20	+8.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election? Yes	Held	104.95	0.3¢	1.4¢	$1.47	$1.15	+366.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%? Yes	Held	19.9955	10¢	15.5¢	$3.10	$1.10	+55.0%	2026-11-04
Will Sekhopi Malebo be the next mayor of Mangaung? No	Held	20	90¢	95.4¢	$19.08	$1.08	+6.0%	2026-11-05
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 6%-9%? No	Held	20	78.5¢	83.9¢	$16.78	$1.08	+6.9%	2026-11-04
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	399.9933	83.74¢	84¢	$335.99	$1.00	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 10%-15%? No	Held	120	74.16¢	75¢	$90.00	$1.00	+1.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 15%-18%? Yes	Held	49.51	1.99¢	3.6¢	$1.78	$0.79	+80.0%	2026-11-04
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No	Held	38.82	94¢	96¢	$37.27	$0.78	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No	Held	5	80¢	95.5¢	$4.78	$0.78	+19.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 10%-15%? Yes	Held	20	24.9¢	28.75¢	$5.75	$0.77	+15.5%	2026-11-04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? Yes	Held	30	91¢	93.5¢	$28.05	$0.75	+2.7%	2026-10-13
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation? No	Held	20	89¢	92.5¢	$18.50	$0.70	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more? Yes	Held	14	5¢	10¢	$1.40	$0.70	+100.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 18% or more? No	Held	24.996	90.8¢	93.45¢	$23.36	$0.66	+2.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 25% or more? Yes	Held	20	2¢	5.2¢	$1.04	$0.64	+160.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 30%-35%? Yes	Held	40	2.49¢	4.05¢	$1.62	$0.62	+62.0%	2026-11-04
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Held	200	94.9¢	95.2¢	$190.40	$0.60	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2028? No	Held	20	85¢	88¢	$17.60	$0.60	+3.5%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 3%-6%? No	Held	20	84¢	87¢	$17.40	$0.60	+3.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more? No	Held	14.2	86¢	90¢	$12.78	$0.57	+4.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	25	2.8¢	4.95¢	$1.24	$0.54	+76.8%	2026-11-04
Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	50	0.6¢	1.65¢	$0.82	$0.53	+175.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-07 House election by 0%-3%? Yes	Held	5	3¢	13.45¢	$0.67	$0.52	+348.3%	2026-11-04
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? No	Held	20	79¢	81.5¢	$16.30	$0.50	+3.2%	2026-12-01
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	20	59¢	61.5¢	$12.30	$0.50	+4.2%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 35%-40%? No	Held	18.83	93¢	95.5¢	$17.98	$0.47	+2.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 3% or more? Yes	Held	17	4¢	6.5¢	$1.10	$0.42	+62.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 20%-25%? No	Held	20	82¢	84¢	$16.80	$0.40	+2.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 5%-10%? No	Held	5	81¢	87.5¢	$4.38	$0.33	+8.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 5%-10%? Yes	Held	60.01	3.66¢	4.2¢	$2.52	$0.32	+14.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? No	Held	4.5333	76¢	83¢	$3.76	$0.32	+9.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 15%-18%? No	Held	8.8741	93¢	96.4¢	$8.55	$0.30	+3.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%? No	Held	20	80¢	81.5¢	$16.30	$0.30	+1.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 30%-35%? No	Held	20	70¢	71.5¢	$14.30	$0.30	+2.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	20	17¢	18.5¢	$3.70	$0.30	+8.8%	2026-11-04
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Held	58.7215	81¢	81.5¢	$47.86	$0.29	+0.6%	2028-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 18%-21%? Yes	Held	20	2¢	3.4¢	$0.68	$0.28	+70.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 40%-45%? No	Held	5.14	90¢	95.05¢	$4.89	$0.26	+5.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	100	4¢	4.2¢	$4.20	$0.20	+5.0%	2026-11-04
Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Held	39.9791	8¢	8.5¢	$3.40	$0.20	+6.2%	2028-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 15%-20%? Yes	Held	5	13¢	16¢	$0.80	$0.15	+23.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	1.2111	10¢	21¢	$0.25	$0.13	+109.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	13.37	1.61¢	2.6¢	$0.35	$0.13	+60.5%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No	Held	14.3	93¢	93.7¢	$13.40	$0.10	+0.8%	2027-04-01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	20	6¢	6.3¢	$1.26	$0.06	+5.0%	2027-04-01
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? No	Held	1.32	75¢	78.5¢	$1.04	$0.05	+4.7%	2026-12-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 15%-20%? Yes	Held	3	12¢	13¢	$0.39	$0.03	+8.3%	2026-11-04
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Held	5.8666	10¢	10.5¢	$0.62	$0.03	+5.0%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 3%-6%? No	Held	0.14	74¢	80.5¢	$0.11	<$0.01	+8.8%	2026-11-04
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No	Held	199.9844	81.49¢	81.5¢	$162.99	<$0.01	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic	Held	3.6	96¢	95.85¢	$3.45	>-$0.01	-0.2%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	5.3	6¢	4.95¢	$0.26	-$0.06	-17.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 30% or more? Yes	Held	59.9924	6.99¢	6.85¢	$4.11	-$0.09	-2.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 25%-30%? Yes	Held	20	6¢	5.5¢	$1.10	-$0.10	-8.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	20	5¢	4.35¢	$0.87	-$0.13	-13.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee Senate election by 0%-10%? Yes	Held	11.74	5¢	3.35¢	$0.39	-$0.14	-33.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	5	7¢	3.95¢	$0.20	-$0.15	-43.6%	2026-11-04
Will Jayden Maiava be the 2026 D1 Passing Yards Leader? No	Held	4.99	93.99¢	90¢	$4.49	-$0.20	-4.3%	2027-01-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 25%-30%? No	Held	40	78.49¢	78¢	$31.20	-$0.20	-0.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	40	76¢	75.5¢	$30.20	-$0.20	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 25%-30%? No	Held	40	74¢	73.5¢	$29.40	-$0.20	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%? No	Held	20	88¢	87¢	$17.40	-$0.20	-1.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 45%-50%? No	Held	20	80¢	79¢	$15.80	-$0.20	-1.3%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before the midterms? Yes	Held	142	98.7¢	98.55¢	$139.94	-$0.22	-0.2%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 30%-35%? Yes	Held	15.84	5¢	3.55¢	$0.56	-$0.23	-29.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-21 House election by 18%-21%? Yes	Held	20	4¢	2.7¢	$0.54	-$0.26	-32.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 18% or more? Yes	Held	20	3¢	1.7¢	$0.34	-$0.26	-43.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 10%-15%? Yes	Held	20	7¢	5.55¢	$1.11	-$0.29	-20.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	20	5¢	3.4¢	$0.68	-$0.32	-32.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 0%-5%? Yes	Held	20	6¢	4.15¢	$0.83	-$0.37	-30.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Held	20	3¢	1.05¢	$0.21	-$0.39	-65.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 5%-10%? No	Held	40	86.5¢	85.5¢	$34.20	-$0.40	-1.2%	2026-11-04
Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? Yes	Held	20	3¢	0.9¢	$0.18	-$0.42	-70.0%	2027-01-01
Will Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election? Yes	Held	27.1875	59.65¢	58.5¢	$15.90	-$0.43	-1.9%	2026-10-28
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Delaware Senate election by 10%-15%? Yes	Held	20	7.1¢	4.7¢	$0.94	-$0.48	-33.8%	2026-11-04
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No	Held	100	93¢	92.5¢	$92.50	-$0.50	-0.5%	2026-11-01
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? Yes	Held	1,000.0052	89.99¢	90.5¢	$905.00	-$0.50	+0.6%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 0%-5%? Yes	Held	19.9914	3¢	0.15¢	$0.03	-$0.57	-95.0%	2026-11-04
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,111	95.9¢	95.8¢	$1.1K	-$0.61	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-26 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	20	5¢	1.65¢	$0.33	-$0.67	-67.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	20	5¢	1.6¢	$0.32	-$0.68	-68.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 60% or more? Yes	Held	28.19	6.7¢	3.9¢	$1.10	-$0.79	-41.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 50%-55%? No	Held	40	85.5¢	83.5¢	$33.40	-$0.80	-2.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 5%-10%? No	Held	60	71.99¢	70.5¢	$42.30	-$0.90	-2.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? No	Held	20	76¢	71.5¢	$14.30	-$0.90	-5.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 25%-30%? Yes	Held	20	10¢	5.5¢	$1.10	-$0.90	-45.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	157.55	4.1¢	3.4¢	$5.36	-$1.12	-17.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	20	16¢	10¢	$2.00	-$1.20	-37.5%	2026-11-04
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	217	5¢	4.5¢	$9.77	-$1.26	-10.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	20	10¢	3.5¢	$0.70	-$1.30	-65.0%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	176.09	86¢	85.2¢	$150.03	-$1.41	-0.9%	2028-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%? No	Held	60	87¢	84.5¢	$50.70	-$1.50	-2.9%	2026-11-04
Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes	Held	26.63	6.83¢	0.85¢	$0.23	-$1.59	-87.6%	2027-07-01
Will an Independent Candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 0%-3%? No	Held	20	87¢	79¢	$15.80	-$1.60	-9.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 15%-20%? No	Held	20	76¢	68¢	$13.60	-$1.60	-10.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	64.124	12¢	9.5¢	$6.09	-$1.60	-20.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	40	24.5¢	19.5¢	$7.80	-$2.00	-20.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Held	40	12.5¢	6.8¢	$2.72	-$2.28	-45.6%	2026-11-04
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes	Held	476	18.99¢	18.5¢	$88.06	-$2.38	-2.6%	2029-01-01
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? Yes	Held	41.1473	6.94¢	1¢	$0.41	-$2.45	-85.6%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No	Held	98.32	86.62¢	84¢	$82.59	-$2.58	-3.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 50%-55%? No	Held	20	90.1¢	76.9¢	$15.38	-$2.64	-14.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 0%-5%? No	Held	20	88¢	73.5¢	$14.70	-$2.90	-16.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%? No	Held	20	88¢	73.5¢	$14.70	-$2.90	-16.5%	2026-11-04
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No	Held	4,999.9966	94.55¢	94.5¢	$4.7K	-$2.97	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31? No	Held	43.1142	66.99¢	67.5¢	$29.10	-$3.12	+0.7%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 5%-10%? Yes	Held	21.4549	25¢	9.5¢	$2.04	-$3.33	-62.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 10%-15%? No	Held	20	82¢	64¢	$12.80	-$3.60	-22.0%	2026-11-04
Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026? No	Held	20	84¢	65¢	$13.00	-$3.80	-22.6%	2026-11-01
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	111	6.09¢	2.15¢	$2.39	-$4.38	-64.7%	2026-11-01
Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	926.838	38¢	37.5¢	$347.56	-$4.63	-1.3%	—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 15%-20%? No	Held	20	88¢	64.5¢	$12.90	-$4.70	-26.7%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	4.48¢	4¢	$40.00	-$4.87	-10.9%	2027-01-01
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	40	13.1¢	0.35¢	$0.14	-$5.10	-97.3%	2027-04-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 20%-25%? No	Held	40	87.5¢	72.5¢	$29.00	-$6.00	-17.1%	2026-11-04
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	58.4	15¢	3.95¢	$2.31	-$6.45	-73.7%	2027-04-01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	100	10.5¢	4.2¢	$4.20	-$6.50	-60.0%	2027-01-01
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	150	10.33¢	5.5¢	$8.25	-$7.25	-46.8%	2027-01-01
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31? No	Held	278.875	4.4¢	1.75¢	$4.88	-$7.72	-60.2%	2026-10-31
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	1,311	75.15¢	74.5¢	$976.70	-$8.55	-0.9%	2029-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 40%-45%? No	Held	260	71.38¢	67.5¢	$175.50	-$10.10	-5.4%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	30	98¢	95¢	$28.50	-$10.50	-3.1%	2026-10-31
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? Yes	Held	645.8109	10.13¢	10.5¢	$67.81	-$10.77	+3.6%	2026-11-01
Trump meets with Putin by November 30? Yes	Held	1,294.2945	76.46¢	75.5¢	$977.19	-$10.93	-1.3%	2026-12-01
Iran coup attempt by December 31? No	Held	2,000.5265	90¢	89.5¢	$1.8K	-$12.53	-0.6%	2027-01-01
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No	Held	2,000	96¢	95.25¢	$1.9K	-$15.00	-0.8%	2027-01-01
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31? No	Held	501.49	92.49¢	89¢	$446.33	-$16.31	-3.8%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Held	4,000.0029	96.8¢	97.5¢	$3.9K	-$17.74	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	300	15¢	9¢	$27.00	-$18.00	-40.0%	2026-11-01
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	199.9552	17.49¢	6.5¢	$13.00	-$21.99	-62.9%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? Yes	Held	892.79	8¢	5.5¢	$49.10	-$22.32	-31.3%	2026-11-01
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026? No	Held	130.24	99.01¢	79.7¢	$103.80	-$25.15	-19.5%	2026-11-01
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31? Yes	Held	1.6666	71.46¢	69¢	$1.15	-$25.82	-3.5%	2026-11-01
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes	Held	1,100	80.84¢	81¢	$891.00	-$27.57	+0.2%	2027-01-01
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	5,550	90¢	89.5¢	$5.0K	-$27.75	-0.6%	2028-01-01
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026? Yes	Held	427.25	22.38¢	15.5¢	$66.22	-$29.41	-30.8%	2026-11-01
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	650	9.07¢	4.5¢	$29.25	-$29.75	-50.4%	2027-01-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	599.9944	63.49¢	58¢	$348.00	-$33.00	-8.7%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? No	Held	1,054.9976	78.28¢	74.5¢	$785.97	-$39.92	-4.8%	2027-03-01
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No	Held	980.4786	89.06¢	90.5¢	$887.33	-$41.22	+1.6%	2027-01-01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes	Held	2,300.0038	11.42¢	9.5¢	$218.50	-$42.50	-16.9%	2027-01-01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	3,000	78.99¢	77.5¢	$2.3K	-$44.97	-1.9%	2027-01-01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes	Held	4,899.901	26.46¢	25.5¢	$1.2K	-$47.42	-3.7%	2027-01-01
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	635.2698	50.95¢	42.5¢	$269.99	-$48.94	-16.6%	2026-12-31
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No	Held	139.6	88.41¢	91¢	$127.04	-$51.67	+2.9%	2027-01-01
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 Yes	Held	1,812.394	6.14¢	4.5¢	$81.56	-$53.65	-26.8%	2027-01-01
Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Held	172.24	60.72¢	29.5¢	$50.81	-$53.77	-51.4%	2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	499.9645	17.39¢	6¢	$30.00	-$56.99	-65.5%	2026-11-01
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	249.2855	31.8¢	7¢	$17.45	-$61.83	-78.0%	2027-01-01
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? Yes	Held	599.9971	44.99¢	34.5¢	$207.00	-$63.00	-23.3%	2027-01-01
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	530.34	24.92¢	12.5¢	$66.29	-$66.69	-49.8%	2028-01-01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	4,858.9259	6¢	5.5¢	$267.24	-$74.30	-8.3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? Yes	Held	1,332	8.83¢	2.9¢	$38.63	-$79.03	-67.2%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Held	960.3715	87.59¢	88¢	$845.13	-$79.95	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Yes	Held	499.9885	23.59¢	7.45¢	$37.25	-$80.75	-68.4%	2026-12-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Held	1,654.4077	20¢	11.5¢	$190.26	-$81.15	-42.5%	2027-01-01
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	870.9778	52.38¢	43.5¢	$378.88	-$87.02	-17.0%	2026-12-31
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,026.466	14.95¢	8.5¢	$172.25	-$87.36	-43.2%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	933.5539	19¢	9.5¢	$88.69	-$88.69	-50.0%	2026-12-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Held	1,535.4631	42.45¢	29.15¢	$447.59	-$90.85	-31.3%	2027-01-01
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes	Held	685.1259	49.97¢	16¢	$109.62	-$93.22	-68.0%	2027-01-01
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	9,999.9946	2.2¢	1.25¢	$125.00	-$95.00	-43.2%	2028-11-08
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	6,148.6905	10.28¢	8.5¢	$522.64	-$97.03	-17.4%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	769.9	11.99¢	12¢	$92.39	-$98.88	+0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes	Held	9,973.72	15.5¢	14.5¢	$1.4K	-$99.61	-6.5%	2029-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes	Held	1,000.0645	4.51¢	2.85¢	$28.50	-$103.29	-36.8%	2027-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Held	16.9688	93.38¢	94.5¢	$16.04	-$114.37	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? No	Held	285.63	93¢	95.5¢	$272.78	-$116.06	+2.7%	2026-10-18
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	699.9606	54.27¢	43.5¢	$304.48	-$118.55	-19.9%	2026-12-31
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	722	45.65¢	25.5¢	$184.11	-$145.53	-44.1%	2026-10-31
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	3,267.5	11.72¢	9.5¢	$310.41	-$173.52	-19.0%	2028-01-01
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes	Held	995.9122	26.48¢	5¢	$49.80	-$179.13	-81.1%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Yes	Held	294.9921	77¢	16.5¢	$48.67	-$180.52	-78.6%	2027-01-02
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	19¢	4.5¢	$45.00	-$182.95	-76.3%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	29,763.8464	1.1¢	0.45¢	$133.94	-$193.47	-59.1%	2028-11-08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Held	707.6518	15.24¢	11.5¢	$81.38	-$222.10	-24.6%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Held	0.2089	94.65¢	92.5¢	$0.19	-$222.32	-2.3%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Held	200.036	93.24¢	93.5¢	$187.03	-$231.99	+0.3%	2026-12-01
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes	Held	1,190.9741	39.19¢	19.5¢	$232.24	-$234.56	-50.2%	2027-01-01
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? Yes	Held	856.52	28.75¢	9.55¢	$81.80	-$267.07	-66.8%	2026-11-01
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	170,957.61	0.19¢	0.05¢	$85.48	-$267.47	-75.0%	2028-11-08
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes	Held	2,194.8569	15.93¢	3.85¢	$84.50	-$268.93	-75.8%	2026-11-20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	11,628.0548	23.56¢	20.5¢	$2.4K	-$325.53	-13.0%	2026-11-01
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes	Held	1,381.36	56.99¢	9.5¢	$131.23	-$330.67	-83.3%	2027-01-01
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes	Held	3,476.9815	16.34¢	5.5¢	$191.23	-$376.91	-66.3%	2027-01-01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Held	2,000.0036	93.99¢	94¢	$1.9K	-$542.97	+0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	4,221.5	45.09¢	25.5¢	$1.1K	-$985.33	-43.5%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Yes	Held	13,621.8775	29.87¢	22.5¢	$3.1K	-$1.0K	-24.7%	2027-02-01
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No	Held	390.9826	92.12¢	97.5¢	$381.21	-$1.1K	+5.8%	2027-01-01
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	3,017.55	23.09¢	11.5¢	$347.02	-$1.3K	-50.2%	2027-07-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	29,999.9878	14.13¢	8.05¢	$2.4K	-$1.6K	-43.0%	2028-11-08
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	54,143.6643	92.89¢	90.5¢	$49.0K	-$1.7K	-2.6%	2028-01-01
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Held	7,314.1544	95.12¢	97.85¢	$7.2K	-$2.2K	+2.9%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No	Held	2,999	88.25¢	91.5¢	$2.7K	-$4.0K	+3.7%	2026-10-16
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Held	13,263.3587	52.65¢	11.5¢	$1.5K	-$12.5K	-78.2%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	335,000	50¢	20.05¢	$67.2K	-$100.3K	-59.9%	2028-11-08

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