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Convexly

Polymarket wallet record

Outside the luck range on the resolved record through block 93,237,785 (walked 2026-09-04 23:08 UTC). The address has moved outcome tokens since that block, so newer positions are not in this read.

Realized edge per priced position: +1.1pp (95% CI [+0.4pp, +1.7pp], n=5227 of 5280 resolved; 53 un-priceable: no recoverable entry price in this read) through block 93,237,785 (walked 2026-09-04 23:08 UTC).

Complete through block 93,237,785

Complete through block 93,237,785 for this on-chain address, not any linked accounts.

Wallet0x7c3d...5c6bPolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

On-chain-reconciled full-history read

complete through block 93,237,785

This read walks the wallet's entire on-chain record via the venue's settlement contracts rather than the public API window, and its completeness is machine-checkable.

Currentas of 2026-09-04 UTCnext refresh due 2026-10-04 UTC

Read is current as of 2026-09-04 UTC, inside the 30-day refresh cadence.

Walked to Polygon block 93,237,785 on 2026-09-04 23:08 UTC.

Markets resolved to completion
5,280
Priced at own entry fills
5,227

53 positions had no recoverable entry price in this read, so they are counted but not priced.

Realized edge per priced position
+1.1pp (95% CI [+0.4pp, +1.7pp], n=5227 of 5280 resolved; 53 un-priceable: no recoverable entry price in this read)

95% interval is the event-clustered BCa bootstrap on the priced subset.

Distinct events
4,550
Largest event share
0.04%
Complete-set pairs
25.9%

Style label, never a gate: the share of positions holding both outcome legs of the same market to resolution.

Realized edge excluding complete-set pairs
+1.0pp (95% CI [+0.2pp, +1.8pp], n=3873)

The single-leg slice of the same record, same method.

Verdict

Outside the luck range on the resolved record through block 93,237,785 (walked 2026-09-04 23:08 UTC). The address has moved outcome tokens since that block, so newer positions are not in this read.

Read coverage

Reconciled against the on-chain record for this address: the complete set of positions this address held to resolution (5,280). Scope is this on-chain address, not any linked accounts. Reconciled as of 2026-09-04 UTC; a point-in-time snapshot that reverts to a windowed read on this address's next trade.

Descriptive read of the past resolved record. Not a forecast, not advice. Backward-looking; the read can change as open positions resolve.

The windowed read below covers only the recent public-API window; the reconciled read above covers the full record.

One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

Recent observed trades

Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-04

Read coverage

Covers the most recent 3,500 trades the public API returns for this wallet. Older history beyond that window is not included in this read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

130

Wins / losses

78 / 52

Win rate

60.0%

Brier

0.057

Baseline Brier

0.240

Biggest-event share

45.1%

of net result; above 100% when other events lost

First position

2026-08-22

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1831. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? (45.1% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
politics4951.0%0.0590.250
other4376.7%0.0510.178
sports1656.3%0.1170.246
crypto1080.0%0.0470.160
entertainment911.1%0.0000.099
science366.7%0.0020.222

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%300.0%5.0%
10-20%50.0%15.0%
20-30%728.6%25.0%
30-40%10.0%35.0%
40-50%742.9%45.0%
50-60%250.0%55.0%
60-70%728.6%65.0%
70-80%475.0%75.0%
80-90%12100.0%85.0%
90-100%55100.0%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x7c3d...5c6b?
As of 2026-09-04, Convexly's cached read shows 130 resolved positions, 78 wins and 52 losses (win rate 60.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -0.6 probability points, 95% CI [-3.4, +1.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 130 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x7c3d...5c6b skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge -0.6 probability points across 130 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.4, +1.7]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain