Wallet positions

0x270a…7b78

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

551

Realized PnL

$2.4K

Win rate

43.4%

Realized edge

+1.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +1.1 pp across 551 resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.3, +3.6], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

265 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:22:20 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Yes	Redeemable	2,320.3762	0.87¢	0¢	$0.00	$205.41	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	261,279.1659	0.29¢	0.35¢	$914.48	$145.38	+18.9%	2028-11-08
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	760	29¢	42.5¢	$323.00	$102.60	+46.6%	2026-11-04
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	118.67	14.42¢	16¢	$18.99	$72.46	+10.9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,210	1.36¢	0¢	$0.00	$53.03	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes	Redeemable	174.9989	3.5¢	0¢	$0.00	$42.52	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No	Held	857.9	91.63¢	96¢	$823.58	$37.42	+4.8%	2027-01-01
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	286	87.99¢	97.8¢	$279.71	$28.03	+11.1%	2027-01-01
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	130	75¢	93.35¢	$121.36	$23.86	+24.5%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in New York City be between $580,000 and $585,000 on April 1? Yes	Redeemable	95.92	0.5¢	0¢	$0.00	$11.31	-100.0%	2026-04-01
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes	Redeemable	515.2041	3.69¢	0¢	$0.00	$11.16	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11? Yes	Redeemable	4,599.672	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$6.70	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will the Ohio Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races? Yes	Held	78.3	4.19¢	10.15¢	$7.95	$4.66	+141.9%	2026-11-03
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Yes	Redeemable	2,234.249	0.6¢	0¢	$0.00	$3.96	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Meituan announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	40	90¢	98.25¢	$39.30	$3.30	+9.2%	2026-11-01
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Yes	Redeemable	283.97	10.74¢	0¢	$0.00	$3.15	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Alaska Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races? Yes	Held	45	7.95¢	13.35¢	$6.01	$2.43	+67.8%	2026-11-03
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	20	89¢	98.4¢	$19.68	$1.88	+10.6%	2026-11-01
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	20	89¢	97.65¢	$19.53	$1.73	+9.7%	2026-11-01
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	20	90¢	98.4¢	$19.68	$1.68	+9.3%	2026-11-01
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	20	89¢	96.5¢	$19.30	$1.50	+8.4%	2026-11-01
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	15	89¢	98.2¢	$14.73	$1.38	+10.3%	2026-11-01
Will iShowSpeed Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award? Yes	Held	5	44¢	71.5¢	$3.58	$1.38	+62.5%	—
Will the Iowa Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races? Yes	Held	80.12	4.13¢	5.55¢	$4.45	$1.13	+34.1%	2026-11-03
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	231.86	8.07¢	8.55¢	$19.82	$1.10	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	200	7.5¢	6.9¢	$13.80	$0.59	-8.0%	2028-11-08
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No	Held	40	95¢	96.45¢	$38.58	$0.58	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027? No	Held	124.01	98.39¢	98.7¢	$122.40	$0.37	+0.3%	2026-12-31
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? No	Held	15	97¢	97¢	$14.55	$0.00	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Kai and Speed have less than 10 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? Yes	Redeemable	276	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-09-30
Will Kai and Speed have between 10 and 29 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? Yes	Redeemable	276	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-09-30
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be less than 10,000? Yes	Redeemable	95	0.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.10	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Pobelter win Tyler 1 All Star tournament week 5? Yes	Redeemable	5	6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.30	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-04-12
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	20	2.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.41	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	25	2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.50	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Yes	Redeemable	73	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.51	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Yes	Redeemable	212.84	0.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.66	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Will Norway win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes	Redeemable	6.15	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.86	-100.0%	2026-02-22
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? Yes	Redeemable	835.08	0.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.87	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Team Heretics win the LEC 2026 Versus? Yes	Redeemable	200	0.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.94	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Redeemable	80	1.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.94	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	11	17¢	8.05¢	$0.89	-$0.98	-52.6%	2028-11-08
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	66	1.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.06	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	23.77	4.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.06	-100.0%	2025-09-30
Will Wanda James be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes	Redeemable	1,041.6	0.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.08	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Yes	Redeemable	158	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.11	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	370.2886	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.11	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.20	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes	Redeemable	34	3.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.24	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party? Yes	Redeemable	24	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.25	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Yes	Redeemable	329.1629	0.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.26	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Katie Porter finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes	Redeemable	128	0.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin? Yes	Redeemable	637.34	0.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.32	-100.0%	2027-06-30
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	38¢	11¢	$0.55	-$1.35	-71.1%	2027-01-01
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Yes	Redeemable	472	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.42	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Yes	Redeemable	191	0.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.53	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Team Vitality win the LEC 2026 Versus? Yes	Redeemable	42	3.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.58	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	92.64	1.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.60	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31? Yes	Redeemable	20	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.60	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31? No	Held	140	97.77¢	96.5¢	$135.10	-$1.78	-1.3%	2027-01-01
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls? Yes	Redeemable	201	0.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.81	-100.0%	2026-02-05
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%? Yes	Redeemable	174.29	1.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.89	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will ON Win MSI Finals MVP Yes	Redeemable	89.24	2.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.06	-100.0%	—
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? No	Redeemable	10	21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.10	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? No	Redeemable	100	2.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.20	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Yes	Redeemable	400	0.56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.26	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will Ariana Grande be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? Yes	Redeemable	220	1.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.27	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Fnatic win the LEC 2026 Versus? Yes	Redeemable	74	3.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.37	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes	Redeemable	120	2.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.44	-100.0%	2026-02-01
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? No	Redeemable	10	24.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.51	-100.0%	2026-05-25
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? No	Redeemable	66	4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.64	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes	Redeemable	185	1.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.83	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	600	0.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.00	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? No	Redeemable	1,000	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.00	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be less than 30 million? Yes	Redeemable	73.53	3.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.01	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	400	0.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.30	-100.0%	2025-10-29
Nothing Ever Happens: November No	Redeemable	11	46.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.37	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	336	1.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.48	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	200	1.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.85	-100.0%	2025-12-31
League of Legends: Cloud9 vs. FURIA Cloud9	Redeemable	49	8.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.93	-100.0%	2025-07-17
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? No	Redeemable	250	1.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.25	-100.0%	2025-10-29
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be less than 60 minutes long? Yes	Redeemable	297	1.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.33	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	303.75	23.99¢	22.5¢	$68.34	-$4.54	-6.2%	2026-12-31
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes	Redeemable	791.25	0.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.74	-100.0%	2026-06-13
Will LOUD win First Stand 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,617.8603	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.85	-100.0%	2026-03-22
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision? Yes	Redeemable	629	0.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.28	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Yes	Redeemable	400	0.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.58	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Will Dear Me - Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	1,600	0.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.60	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	83	14¢	7.1¢	$5.89	-$5.73	-49.3%	2027-01-01
Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04? No	Redeemable	35	17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.95	-100.0%	2026-03-03
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? Yes	Redeemable	520.57	1.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.37	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	80	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.40	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Yes	Redeemable	500	1.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.48	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Yes	Redeemable	191.75	3.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.96	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will Dan Kleban be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes	Redeemable	141	4.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.01	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Held	170.71	28.28¢	24¢	$40.97	-$7.32	-15.2%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,395.53	0.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.47	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	1,500	0.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.50	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes	Redeemable	1,740.432	0.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.55	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7? Yes	Redeemable	1,767	0.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.77	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	450	1.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.10	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Zohran Mamdani win 2 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? Yes	Redeemable	105	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.40	-100.0%	2025-11-04
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? No	Redeemable	400	2.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.72	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No	Held	92.29	27¢	17.5¢	$16.15	-$8.77	-35.2%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	0.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.00	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? No	Redeemable	100	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.00	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	1,069	0.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.06	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Yes	Redeemable	350	2.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.10	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	286	3.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.15	-100.0%	2025-09-17
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes	Redeemable	258	3.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.36	-100.0%	2026-05-26
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	299	3.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.34	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will Zohran Mamdani win 3 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? Yes	Redeemable	61	17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.37	-100.0%	2025-11-04
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves? Yes	Redeemable	330	3.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.56	-100.0%	2026-02-05
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Yes	Redeemable	2,000.0617	0.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.64	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	362.681	3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.88	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes	Redeemable	445	2.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.99	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	0.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.00	-100.0%	2026-03-18
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Yes	Redeemable	700	1.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.09	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? Yes	Held	100	12¢	0.25¢	$0.25	-$11.75	-97.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Held	102.5	39¢	27.5¢	$28.19	-$11.79	-29.5%	2026-11-04
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	0.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.00	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 New Jersey governor election between 8:00 PM and 8:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025? Yes	Redeemable	50	24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.00	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Will Bernie Sanders say "Netanyahu" during his West Virginia speech on August 8? No	Redeemable	100	12.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.60	-100.0%	2025-08-11
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Yes	Redeemable	350	3.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.95	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Yes	Redeemable	2,600	0.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.00	-100.0%	2025-12-11
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Yes	Redeemable	40	34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.60	-100.0%	2025-11-14
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? Yes	Redeemable	20	70¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.00	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 Virginia governor election between 7:00 PM and 7:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025? No	Redeemable	112	13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.56	-100.0%	2025-11-04
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes	Redeemable	555	2.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.81	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	20	80¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	100	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.00	-100.0%	2025-10-29
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes	Redeemable	541	2.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.19	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	684	2.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.50	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,999.9645	0.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.51	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	440	3.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.16	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? Yes	Redeemable	250	6.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.35	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	260	6.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.42	-100.0%	2025-12-10
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes	Redeemable	140	12.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.96	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Will Gen.G complete the League of Legends “Golden Road” in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	100	18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.00	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 4200 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? No	Held	277.38	9.18¢	2.65¢	$7.35	-$18.14	-71.2%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Yes	Redeemable	472	4.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.45	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	565.75	3.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.46	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? Yes	Redeemable	624.32	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.24	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	2,599.9322	0.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.97	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes	Redeemable	199.9874	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.00	-100.0%	2026-02-01
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by less than 3%? Yes	Redeemable	207.3	10.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.66	-100.0%	2026-08-18
Will Bernie Sanders say "Oligarchy" 5+ times during his West Virginia speech on August 8? Yes	Redeemable	49.4893	43.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$23.54	-100.0%	2025-08-11
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%? Yes	Redeemable	812.55	3.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.87	-100.0%	2027-06-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes	Redeemable	414	6.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.45	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	1,160	2.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.88	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	5,320.7	0.87¢	0.35¢	$18.62	-$27.86	-59.9%	2028-11-08
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	5,000	0.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.00	-100.0%	2026-01-28
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? Yes	Redeemable	500	6.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.08	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during his West Virginia speech on August 8? Yes	Redeemable	40.019	82.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.32	-100.0%	2025-08-11
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	1,890.4696	1.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.79	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days? Yes	Redeemable	1,045	3.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.80	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	1,038	3.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.18	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	1.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$35.00	-100.0%	2026-03-18
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	800	33¢	28.5¢	$228.00	-$36.00	-13.6%	2026-11-04
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? No	Redeemable	88	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$36.08	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? No	Redeemable	925	3.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$36.47	-100.0%	2026-11-02
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	3.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$39.06	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	500	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.00	-100.0%	2025-12-10
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? No	Redeemable	500	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.00	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 10–15%? Yes	Redeemable	359.63	11.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.15	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes	Redeemable	450	9.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.95	-100.0%	2026-04-04
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? No	Redeemable	378.7262	12.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.39	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	3,000	1.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$42.00	-100.0%	2026-04-29
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? No	Redeemable	85	57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.55	-100.0%	2025-11-03
Will Natus Vincere win the LEC 2026 Versus? Yes	Redeemable	445.65	9.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.01	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	566	7.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.80	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,984	0.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.99	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? No	Redeemable	193	24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.32	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	8,000	0.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.00	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	8,052.99	0.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.02	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Yes	Redeemable	2,591	2.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.27	-100.0%	2025-12-11
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	257	21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.97	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	3,687	1.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.22	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	3,211	1.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$57.74	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? No	Redeemable	558.99	3.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$58.98	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	1,188	5.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$60.07	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes	Redeemable	140	43.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$61.00	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? Yes	Redeemable	218	28.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$61.40	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	701	8.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$61.85	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? No	Redeemable	460	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$64.40	-100.0%	2025-09-30
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%? Yes	Redeemable	287.8791	23.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$68.98	-100.0%	2026-04-21
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%? Yes	Redeemable	359	19.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$70.92	-100.0%	2026-03-03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	1,550	4.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.50	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes	Held	210	38.38¢	3.75¢	$7.88	-$72.72	-90.2%	2027-01-01
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	500	14.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$73.60	-100.0%	2025-12-10
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	1,489.9881	11.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$73.99	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%? Yes	Redeemable	876.5019	8.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$75.18	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Yes	Redeemable	4,232.27	1.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$76.74	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	3,063	2.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$77.44	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,856.9927	4.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$77.84	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	8,052.98	0.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$80.37	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election? Yes	Redeemable	599.4965	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$83.93	-100.0%	2025-12-02
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Yes	Redeemable	360.2	22.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$85.40	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	2,423.1	3.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$85.91	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Yes	Redeemable	175	50¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.50	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	2,900	3.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.59	-100.0%	2025-07-30
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Yes	Redeemable	500	19.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$97.78	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more? Yes	Redeemable	2,378.9904	4.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$98.18	-100.0%	2025-11-04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	4,440	2.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$107.80	-100.0%	2026-04-29
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? No	Redeemable	4,509.55	2.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$114.60	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? No	Redeemable	200	58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$116.00	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,808.25	7.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$132.72	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? No	Redeemable	2,010.9379	7.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.84	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,899.9889	3.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$151.11	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	2,386.1	6.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$157.85	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Yes	Redeemable	3,620.0064	7.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$160.60	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	382.0069	39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$162.06	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? No	Redeemable	2,149.16	6.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$163.38	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? No	Redeemable	99.0211	51.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$165.79	-100.0%	2025-08-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,561	6.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$170.27	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	923.44	6.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$174.56	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? No	Redeemable	559.0335	31.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$177.51	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes	Redeemable	7,684	2.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$180.53	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Yes	Redeemable	200	91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$182.00	-100.0%	2025-12-17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	5,063	3.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$192.86	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes	Redeemable	1,030	19.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$200.04	-100.0%	2026-03-15
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	1,513.6	31.26¢	16¢	$242.18	-$231.06	-48.8%	2027-01-01
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? Yes	Redeemable	1,150	21.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$246.40	-100.0%	2026-04-12
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? No	Redeemable	1,799.9757	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$252.00	-100.0%	2026-04-21
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more? No	Redeemable	300	86.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$258.88	-100.0%	2025-10-10
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	606.0045	48.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$280.22	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? Yes	Redeemable	783.9	39.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$307.10	-100.0%	2026-07-10
Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49? No	Redeemable	2,220	15.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$345.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? No	Redeemable	402.28	85.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$347.12	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? No	Redeemable	1,983.9	16.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$354.15	-100.0%	2025-06-24
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	15,449.84	2.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$454.33	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	17,510.58	2.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$501.29	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Yes	Redeemable	2,379.3673	22.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$512.77	-100.0%	2025-11-04
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? No	Redeemable	903.8512	58.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$528.60	-100.0%	2026-04-03
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	5,000	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$550.00	-100.0%	2026-01-28
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? No	Redeemable	1,034	67.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$699.93	-100.0%	2026-02-23
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes	Redeemable	10,034.0041	6.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$750.16	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	8,799.9934	8.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$782.81	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	14,406.82	5.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$869.70	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes	Redeemable	9,999.11	8.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$884.13	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	15,436.19	5.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$921.60	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? Yes	Redeemable	1,317	78.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2025-10-10
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	4,041.46	33.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? No	Redeemable	1,900	81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-04-04
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes	Redeemable	4,187	41.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-07-01

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