Wallet ledger

0x2574…144b

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$1.5K

Win rate

69%

Realized edge

+0.139

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.139 across 49 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.03, +0.24]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (30 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? No	Open	150	58¢	$59	+68%	2026-08-31
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	155	64¢	$46	+46%	2026-09-01
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No	Open	200	46¢	$45	+49%	2026-12-09
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	174	22¢	$44	+116%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	183	75¢	$37	+27%	2026-12-31
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? No	Open	179	80¢	$35	+24%	2026-08-31
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	313	32¢	$30	+30%	2026-10-04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No	Open	190	79¢	$29	+20%	2026-09-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	100	43¢	$25	+57%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? Yes	Open	100	44¢	$24	+55%	1970-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? No	Open	55	34¢	$19	+101%	2026-10-01
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No	Open	278	54¢	$15	+10%	2026-12-09
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	184	27¢	$10	+21%	2026-10-04
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? Yes	Open	100	61¢	$10	+16%	2026-09-08
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	39	60¢	$10	+42%	2026-12-31
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	77	65¢	$8	+17%	2026-10-04
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes	Open	138	68¢	$4	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes	Open	72	82¢	$1	+2%	2026-10-04
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes	Open	4	77¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-04
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	50	32¢	-$4	-23%	2027-01-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	17	60¢	-$4	-38%	2026-10-04
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	172	3¢	-$5	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	128	4¢	-$5	-99%	2026-10-04
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	169	51¢	-$6	-7%	2026-11-03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No	Open	200	56¢	-$7	-6%	2026-11-01
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	234	54¢	-$19	-15%	2026-10-04
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,343	3¢	-$21	-36%	2028-11-07
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	100	65¢	-$25	-38%	2026-12-31
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	355	19¢	-$40	-61%	2026-10-04
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes	Open	183	55¢	-$60	-60%	2026-09-01

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