No complete read yet; the record is not scored

Headline statistics

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0642. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? (51.7% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x2574...144b?

As of 2026-08-20, Convexly's cached read shows 49 resolved positions, 34 wins and 15 losses (win rate 69.4%). Realized edge over entry prices: +13.9 probability points, 95% CI [+3.4, +23.8] (BCa bootstrap, n = 49 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is wallet 0x2574...144b skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?

Realized edge +13.9 probability points across 49 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [+3.4, +23.8]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.