What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xfe78...0319?

As of 2026-06-11, Convexly's cached read shows 40 resolved positions, 18 wins and 22 losses (win rate 45.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -1.4 probability points, 95% CI [-13.7, +10.9] (BCa bootstrap, n = 40 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge -1.4 pp, 95% CI [-13.7, +10.9], n=40

Realized edge -1.4 probability points across 40 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-13.7, +10.9]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-06-11 Run a fresh analysis

Read coverage

Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

Wins / losses

18 / 22

Win rate

45.0%

Brier

0.163

Baseline Brier

0.247

First position

2026-06-11

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0843. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	40	45.0%	0.163	0.247

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
50-60%	8	87.5%	55.0%
60-70%	5	60.0%	65.0%
70-80%	4	100.0%	75.0%
80-90%	1	100.0%	85.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xfe78...0319?: As of 2026-06-11, Convexly's cached read shows 40 resolved positions, 18 wins and 22 losses (win rate 45.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -1.4 probability points, 95% CI [-13.7, +10.9] (BCa bootstrap, n = 40 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xfe78...0319 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge -1.4 probability points across 40 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-13.7, +10.9]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain