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Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge +1.1 pp, 95% CI [-1.3, +3.4], n=1557

Realized edge +1.1 probability points across 1557 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.3, +3.4]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-07

Read coverage

Covers the most recent 3,500 trades the public API returns for this wallet. Older history beyond that window is not included in this read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

1,557

Wins / losses

833 / 724

Win rate

53.5%

Brier

0.218

Baseline Brier

0.249

Biggest-event share

34.6%

of net result; above 100% when other events lost

First position

2026-08-21

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0303. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs (34.6% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
sports155253.5%0.2190.249
politics30.0%0.1470.000

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%333.3%5.0%
10-20%2420.8%15.0%
20-30%6924.6%25.0%
30-40%20732.4%35.0%
40-50%52146.1%45.0%
50-60%34757.9%55.0%
60-70%13568.2%65.0%
70-80%7471.6%75.0%
80-90%8087.5%85.0%
90-100%9789.7%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x9f15...bdb3?
As of 2026-09-07, Convexly's cached read shows 1557 resolved positions, 833 wins and 724 losses (win rate 53.5%). Realized edge over entry prices: +1.1 probability points, 95% CI [-1.3, +3.4] (BCa bootstrap, n = 1557 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x9f15...bdb3 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge +1.1 probability points across 1557 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.3, +3.4]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain