Wallet ledger

0xfeca…f1ad

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

376

Realized PnL

$84.2K

Win rate

29%

Realized edge

-0.020

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.020 across 376 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.05, +0.01]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (9 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Open	100	16¢	$2	+12%	2026-12-31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes	Open	60	14¢	$2	+18%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Open	29	17¢	-$0	-9%	2027-01-01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	15	12¢	-$1	-31%	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	100	2¢	-$1	-43%	2026-09-30
Iran leadership change by September 30? Yes	Open	16	9¢	-$1	-62%	2026-10-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes	Open	50	3¢	-$1	-74%	2026-09-01
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes	Open	50	3¢	-$1	-82%	2026-09-01
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	40	9¢	-$2	-56%	2026-10-01

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