Wallet positions

0xf9b5…1212

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

1084

Realized PnL

-$2.1K

Win rate

28.2%

Realized edge

-6.8 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -6.8 pp across 1084 resolved positions, 95% CI [-9.3, -4.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

142 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:23:39 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	117.4254	32.74¢	38.5¢	$45.21	$6.76	+17.6%	2026-10-25
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No	Held	42.2597	70.98¢	84.5¢	$35.71	$5.71	+19.0%	2027-01-01
Map Handicap: Color (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Color	Held	121.8667	45.36¢	49.5¢	$60.32	$5.04	+9.1%	2026-10-09
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? Yes	Held	115.38	25.34¢	29.5¢	$34.04	$4.79	+16.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No	Held	72.5	40¢	45.5¢	$32.99	$3.99	+13.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	75.7457	30.43¢	35.5¢	$26.89	$3.84	+16.6%	2026-11-04
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	92.5829	32.4¢	36.5¢	$33.79	$3.80	+12.7%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	34.8859	85.99¢	84.5¢	$29.48	$3.77	-1.7%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	16.3199	55.14¢	76.5¢	$12.48	$3.48	+38.7%	2027-01-01
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31? Yes	Held	14.9933	36.33¢	59.5¢	$8.92	$3.47	+63.7%	2026-11-01
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	25¢	94.05¢	$4.70	$3.45	+276.2%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hasan Piker by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	36.4¢	97.9¢	$4.89	$3.08	+169.0%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	11.47	77.12¢	99.95¢	$11.46	$2.62	+29.6%	2026-10-31
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	56.8269	51.99¢	56.5¢	$32.11	$2.56	+8.7%	2027-01-01
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.5B by December 31? No	Held	5.08	25¢	71.5¢	$3.63	$2.36	+186.0%	2027-01-02
Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week? Yes	Held	6.67	15¢	50¢	$3.33	$2.33	+233.3%	2026-10-11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	4.28	62.86¢	71.5¢	$3.06	$1.84	+13.7%	2026-10-31
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31? Yes	Held	8.39	65.61¢	69¢	$5.79	$1.83	+5.2%	2026-11-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	10	37¢	55¢	$5.50	$1.80	+48.6%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	133.3433	12.05¢	13.5¢	$18.00	$1.68	+12.0%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Chuck Schumer by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	37¢	63.05¢	$3.15	$1.30	+70.4%	2026-10-31
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? No	Held	15	81.99¢	90.5¢	$13.57	$1.27	+10.4%	2026-10-16
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? No	Held	10	71.5¢	84¢	$8.40	$1.25	+17.5%	2026-11-01
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Held	5	26¢	50.5¢	$2.52	$1.23	+94.2%	2026-10-15
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31? Yes	Held	10	81.5¢	92.5¢	$9.25	$1.10	+13.5%	2026-11-01
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5	31¢	52.5¢	$2.63	$1.07	+69.4%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31? Yes	Held	5	71¢	92.1¢	$4.61	$1.05	+29.7%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jon Ossoff by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	43.2¢	61.85¢	$3.09	$0.93	+43.2%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	16.86	63.88¢	62.5¢	$10.54	$0.88	-2.2%	2026-10-31
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? Yes	Held	5.71	72¢	87¢	$4.97	$0.86	+20.8%	2026-10-05
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No	Held	33.31	12.99¢	15.5¢	$5.16	$0.83	+19.2%	2026-11-04
Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Held	5	34¢	50.5¢	$2.52	$0.82	+48.5%	2026-10-11
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	74¢	90¢	$4.50	$0.80	+21.6%	2026-10-31
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Held	12.47	21.22¢	27.5¢	$3.43	$0.78	+29.6%	2026-10-15
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Held	148.31	11¢	11.5¢	$17.06	$0.74	+4.5%	2027-01-01
Will "Car" or "Vehicle" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Held	15	46¢	50.5¢	$7.58	$0.68	+9.8%	2026-10-15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	7.18	79.19¢	82.5¢	$5.92	$0.64	+4.2%	2026-10-31
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? No	Held	1.8181	45¢	80¢	$1.45	$0.64	+77.8%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 18, 2026? No	Held	7.06	18¢	27¢	$1.91	$0.64	+50.0%	2026-10-19
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes	Held	38.83	15¢	16.5¢	$6.41	$0.58	+10.0%	2026-11-01
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? No	Held	5	44¢	55.5¢	$2.77	$0.57	+26.1%	2027-01-05
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	33.24	12.99¢	15.5¢	$5.15	$0.55	+19.2%	2026-11-04
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Held	5	40¢	49¢	$2.45	$0.45	+22.5%	2026-10-15
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? Yes	Held	12.5	8¢	11.5¢	$1.44	$0.44	+43.8%	2026-11-01
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1.7857	55.99¢	80.5¢	$1.44	$0.44	+43.8%	2028-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Held	31.01	48.73¢	50.05¢	$15.52	$0.40	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	785.99	0.8¢	0.85¢	$6.68	$0.39	+6.2%	2026-10-10
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	31.45	3.6¢	4.6¢	$1.45	$0.34	+27.8%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 27, 2026? Yes	Held	5	85¢	91.3¢	$4.57	$0.32	+7.4%	2026-10-28
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No	Held	23.8073	60.19¢	61.5¢	$14.64	$0.31	+2.2%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 31, 2026? No	Held	12.14	16.48¢	19¢	$2.31	$0.31	+15.3%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	10	57.5¢	60.5¢	$6.05	$0.30	+5.2%	2026-10-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6.44	65¢	69.3¢	$4.46	$0.28	+6.6%	2026-10-31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	13.307	59.53¢	61.5¢	$8.18	$0.26	+3.3%	2026-11-04
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	13	40¢	41.5¢	$5.39	$0.20	+3.8%	2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31? No	Held	18.387	42.62¢	43.5¢	$8.00	$0.16	+2.1%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	9.5238	62.99¢	64.5¢	$6.14	$0.14	+2.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Held	15.3705	26.02¢	26.9¢	$4.13	$0.13	+3.4%	2026-11-04
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%? Yes	Held	5.0333	28¢	30.5¢	$1.54	$0.13	+8.9%	2026-11-03
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? Yes	Held	2.439	40.99¢	46¢	$1.12	$0.12	+12.2%	2026-10-15
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? No	Held	22.48	37.99¢	38.5¢	$8.65	$0.11	+1.3%	2026-10-25
Will Trump post "President Xi" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Held	5	48¢	50¢	$2.50	$0.10	+4.2%	2026-10-11
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	249.3758	5.21¢	5.25¢	$13.09	$0.09	+0.7%	2026-11-29
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	16.3	14¢	14.5¢	$2.36	$0.08	+3.6%	2026-10-28
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	74¢	75¢	$3.75	$0.05	+1.4%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 22, 2026? Yes	Held	0.25	80¢	89¢	$0.22	$0.02	+11.3%	2026-10-23
Will Trump say "Plumber" this week? Yes	Held	5	50¢	50¢	$2.50	$0.00	0.0%	2026-10-11
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" this week? Yes	Held	5	50¢	50¢	$2.50	$0.00	0.0%	2026-10-11
Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	35¢	35¢	$1.75	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%? Yes	Held	10	10¢	10¢	$1.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	31.39	6¢	7.5¢	$2.35	-$0.02	+25.0%	2026-11-01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31? Yes	Held	5	65¢	64.5¢	$3.23	-$0.03	-0.8%	2026-11-01
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	5	85.1¢	84.15¢	$4.21	-$0.05	-1.1%	2026-10-28
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31? Yes	Held	10	33.5¢	32.5¢	$3.25	-$0.10	-3.0%	2026-11-01
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	26.37	36¢	35.5¢	$9.36	-$0.14	-1.4%	2028-01-01
Iran leadership change by October 31? Yes	Held	18.02	2.83¢	1.85¢	$0.33	-$0.18	-34.7%	2026-11-01
Will "Trade" be in the headlines this week? Yes	Held	3	58¢	50.5¢	$1.51	-$0.23	-12.9%	2026-10-11
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? Yes	Held	96.46	2.2¢	1.95¢	$1.88	-$0.24	-11.4%	2026-11-01
Will "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Held	10	51.5¢	49¢	$4.90	-$0.25	-4.9%	2026-10-15
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	22.67	4.5¢	3.3¢	$0.75	-$0.27	-26.7%	2027-04-01
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	80¢	73.5¢	$3.67	-$0.33	-8.1%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2	61¢	37¢	$0.74	-$0.48	-39.3%	2026-10-31
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No	Held	7.4083	24.47¢	22.5¢	$1.67	-$0.48	-8.1%	2026-11-04
Will Trump post "Rigged" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Held	5	61¢	51¢	$2.55	-$0.50	-16.4%	2026-10-11
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	35.7142	27.99¢	26.5¢	$9.46	-$0.54	-5.4%	2026-11-04
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	54.1745	19.56¢	18.5¢	$10.02	-$0.58	-5.4%	2027-01-01
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15? Yes	Held	5	51¢	38.5¢	$1.93	-$0.63	-24.5%	2026-10-15
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kathy Hochul by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	20¢	7.5¢	$0.38	-$0.63	-62.5%	2026-10-31
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	82.6081	36.31¢	35.5¢	$29.33	-$0.67	-2.2%	2027-01-01
Will Republicans win white women in the midterms? Yes	Held	19.8878	16.53¢	14.5¢	$2.88	-$0.74	-12.3%	2026-11-07
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? Yes	Held	8.32	22¢	12.5¢	$1.04	-$0.79	-43.2%	2026-10-16
Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	5	90¢	74¢	$3.70	-$0.80	-17.8%	2027-01-01
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	40	5¢	3¢	$1.20	-$0.80	-40.0%	2027-01-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? Yes	Held	5	31¢	14.5¢	$0.72	-$0.82	-53.2%	2026-10-15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	55.68	15¢	13.5¢	$7.52	-$0.84	-10.0%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Held	9.93	15¢	9.5¢	$0.94	-$0.84	-36.7%	2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? Yes	Held	75.72	2.8¢	1.65¢	$1.25	-$0.87	-41.1%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by October 31, 2026? No	Held	5	47¢	27¢	$1.35	-$1.00	-42.6%	2026-10-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	23.54	13¢	8.5¢	$2.00	-$1.06	-34.6%	2026-12-01
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31? Yes	Held	0.26	34¢	19.5¢	$0.05	-$1.08	-42.6%	2026-11-01
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	24.1392	78.99¢	73.5¢	$17.74	-$1.33	-7.0%	2026-11-04
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15? No	Held	5	81¢	54¢	$2.70	-$1.35	-33.3%	2026-10-16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes	Held	2.75	5.76¢	2.25¢	$0.06	-$1.50	-61.0%	2026-11-01
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No	Held	41.6666	35.99¢	32¢	$13.33	-$1.67	-11.1%	2026-11-17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? No	Held	93.3176	2.14¢	0.3¢	$0.28	-$1.99	-86.0%	2026-10-08
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	2,888.8888	0.96¢	0.9¢	$26.00	-$2.00	-7.1%	2028-11-08
Will the announcers say "Roughing The Passer" during the Buccaneers vs Cowboys game? Yes	Held	5	50¢	10¢	$0.50	-$2.00	-80.0%	2026-10-09
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	155.3423	64.37¢	63.5¢	$98.64	-$2.12	-1.4%	2026-10-28
Amazon announces a training pause by October 31? Yes	Held	5	45¢	2.45¢	$0.12	-$2.13	-94.6%	2026-11-01
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Held	65.21	14.99¢	11.5¢	$7.50	-$2.28	-23.3%	2028-01-01
Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? Yes	Held	18.75	16¢	3.4¢	$0.64	-$2.36	-78.8%	2026-09-28
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026? No	Held	10	54.5¢	28¢	$2.80	-$2.65	-48.6%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5	58¢	1.5¢	$0.07	-$2.83	-97.4%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by October 31, 2026? No	Held	0.97	53.57¢	47¢	$0.46	-$2.88	-12.3%	2026-10-31
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? Yes	Held	20	29.5¢	15¢	$3.00	-$2.90	-49.2%	2026-12-09
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	10	59¢	28.5¢	$2.85	-$3.05	-51.7%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes	Held	5	64¢	58.5¢	$2.92	-$3.16	-8.6%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by October 31, 2026? No	Held	10	62¢	65.5¢	$6.55	-$3.19	+5.6%	2026-10-31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes	Held	20	53¢	37¢	$7.40	-$3.20	-30.2%	2027-01-01
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? No	Held	11.4444	58.8¢	29.5¢	$3.38	-$3.35	-49.8%	2026-10-30
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	15	73.66¢	51¢	$7.65	-$3.40	-30.8%	2026-12-31
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? No	Held	10	58.5¢	24¢	$2.40	-$3.45	-59.0%	2027-04-01
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	10.86	33¢	1.2¢	$0.13	-$3.45	-96.4%	2026-10-05
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	71.45	7¢	1.8¢	$1.29	-$3.72	-74.3%	2027-01-01
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	46.1538	12.99¢	4.2¢	$1.94	-$4.06	-67.7%	2027-01-01
Meta announces a training pause by October 31? Yes	Held	10	65¢	23.35¢	$2.33	-$4.17	-64.1%	2026-11-01
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31? Yes	Held	10	45¢	2.75¢	$0.28	-$4.22	-93.9%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 18, 2026? Yes	Held	5	67¢	73¢	$3.65	-$4.99	+9.0%	2026-10-19
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes	Held	40.16	35.95¢	21.5¢	$8.63	-$5.81	-40.2%	2026-12-31
SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31? Yes	Held	15	47.33¢	3.3¢	$0.49	-$6.60	-93.0%	2026-11-01
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	4.7619	41.99¢	51¢	$2.43	-$6.65	+21.4%	2026-10-28
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	44	24¢	8.5¢	$3.74	-$6.82	-64.6%	2027-07-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	176.51	19.82¢	15.5¢	$27.36	-$7.64	-21.8%	2026-10-05
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	33.0027	43.06¢	16.5¢	$5.45	-$8.81	-61.7%	2028-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	11.0846	25¢	26.5¢	$2.94	-$9.51	+6.0%	2026-11-04
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No	Held	107.7137	28.37¢	19¢	$20.47	-$10.09	-33.0%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by October 31? No	Held	22.0754	49.03¢	2.95¢	$0.65	-$10.17	-94.0%	2026-11-01
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September? Yes	Held	70.093	19¢	4.3¢	$3.01	-$10.69	-77.4%	2026-10-15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? Yes	Held	353.0769	11.89¢	8.5¢	$30.01	-$11.99	-28.5%	2026-10-16
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	2,419.04	4.79¢	3.45¢	$83.46	-$32.54	-28.1%	2027-04-19
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	207.4133	22.78¢	6.5¢	$13.48	-$33.77	-71.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	16.0014	17¢	15.5¢	$2.48	-$74.17	-8.8%	2026-10-29

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