Wallet ledger

0xf2f6…5817

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$71.7K

Win rate

48.6%

Realized edge

-5.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -5.1 pp across 37 resolved positions, 95% CI [-20.1, +9.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (76 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	325,346	68¢	$26.9K	+12%	2026-09-30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	79,082	26¢	$21.5K	+105%	2026-10-04
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes	Open	15,878	16¢	$9.5K	+372%	2026-12-31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	26,048	33¢	$6.2K	+73%	2026-11-03
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	57,000	2¢	$5.2K	+384%	2028-11-07
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	302,604	3¢	$4.1K	+44%	2028-11-07
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	8,698	17¢	$3.0K	+207%	2027-01-01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	6,657	61¢	$2.2K	+54%	2026-12-31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Open	5,001	54¢	$1.9K	+70%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,740	66¢	$1.1K	+43%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	6,300	40¢	$1.0K	+40%	1970-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,912	62¢	$962	+53%	2027-01-01
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,503	65¢	$939	+41%	2027-01-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Open	3,200	60¢	$880	+46%	2026-09-13
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes	Open	5,162	73¢	$702	+19%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Open	3,700	39¢	$567	+39%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,659	63¢	$462	+44%	1970-01-01
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No	Open	3,634	85¢	$403	+13%	2027-01-01
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	2,880	11¢	$391	+119%	2027-01-01
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No	Open	1,966	78¢	$265	+17%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	510	37¢	$258	+136%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,200	74¢	$232	+26%	1970-01-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? No	Open	945	71¢	$217	+32%	2027-01-01
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Open	12,224	94¢	$159	+1%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	817	74¢	$151	+25%	1970-01-01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No	Open	900	80¢	$137	+19%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,210	80¢	$133	+14%	1970-01-01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No	Open	258	50¢	$115	+89%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	530	78¢	$103	+25%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	361	64¢	$99	+43%	1970-01-01
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No	Open	2,209	95¢	$94	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? Yes	Open	472	81¢	$78	+20%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	480	13¢	$74	+121%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,257	51¢	$69	+11%	1970-01-01
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes	Open	221	55¢	$67	+55%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	1,065	90¢	$60	+6%	2026-11-03
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Open	1,000	66¢	$55	+8%	2026-11-30
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes	Open	1,016	5¢	$53	+112%	2025-11-23
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,171	6¢	$41	+30%	2028-11-07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes	Open	1,871	51¢	$40	+4%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	790	95¢	$32	+4%	2026-11-03
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	10,877	67¢	$24	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	34	23¢	$21	+265%	2027-01-01
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? No	Open	70	63¢	$10	+22%	2027-01-01
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 15 Gwei before 2027? No	Open	208	73¢	$10	+6%	2027-01-01
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 10 Gwei before 2027? No	Open	80	68¢	$9	+16%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	16	70¢	$4	+37%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	60	53¢	$3	+9%	1970-01-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027? No	Open	14	75¢	$2	+23%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	475	26¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-03
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027? No	Open	20	83¢	$2	+10%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	35	14¢	$1	+23%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No	Open	490	59¢	-$4	-1%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	416	60¢	-$11	-5%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	1,087	86¢	-$22	-2%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	3,015	69¢	-$45	-2%	2026-11-03
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	878	52¢	-$46	-10%	2027-01-01
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	237	35¢	-$68	-81%	2026-09-20
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	865	50¢	-$70	-16%	2026-11-03
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	3,017	9¢	-$75	-28%	2027-01-01
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	721	31¢	-$177	-78%	2027-01-01
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	10,000	3¢	-$307	-98%	2026-10-04
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	5,533	49¢	-$428	-16%	2026-11-03
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes	Open	935	70¢	-$547	-84%	2027-01-01
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	9,932	21¢	-$596	-29%	2027-01-01
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Open	91,697	29¢	-$5.8K	-22%	2026-12-31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	191,000	17¢	-$17.3K	-53%	2028-11-07

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