Wallet ledger

0xf2cf…464b

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

Win rate

22%

Realized edge

-0.018

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.018 across 41 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.05, +0.03]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (500 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 21? Yes	Open	20	5¢	$19	+1897%	2026-08-21
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 23? Yes	Open	20	24¢	$15	+316%	2026-08-23
Will LØS Win the Shortest Game in CBLOL 2026 Split 2? Yes	Open	20	19¢	$15	+392%	1970-01-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	24	5¢	$14	+1151%	2026-08-31
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	20	30¢	$14	+230%	2026-08-24
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	20	25¢	$14	+271%	2026-08-24
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	15	12¢	$13	+723%	2026-08-31
Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election? No	Open	41	42¢	$13	+74%	2026-10-04
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Yes	Open	21	32¢	$12	+180%	2026-10-11
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? Yes	Open	21	12¢	$11	+457%	2026-08-31
Will "Buddy" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	20	6¢	$11	+942%	2026-08-31
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No	Open	15	25¢	$11	+282%	2026-09-30
Will Lamar Jackson be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes	Open	25	2¢	$10	+2042%	2026-08-31
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes	Open	28	19¢	$9	+170%	2027-04-23
Will Rob Rausch be cast in Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? Yes	Open	20	5¢	$9	+867%	2027-03-31
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes	Open	10	3¢	$9	+3323%	2026-11-12
Will Nico Echavarria win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes	Open	40	6¢	$9	+380%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	35	71¢	$8	+34%	2026-08-31
Will CeeDee Lamb have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes	Open	19	6¢	$8	+725%	2027-01-12
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%? Yes	Open	11	20¢	$8	+397%	2026-08-04
Will "Spa Weekend" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	20	5¢	$8	+899%	2026-08-24
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes	Open	20	3¢	$8	+1566%	2026-08-31
Will Manchester City be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League? No	Open	20	38¢	$8	+108%	2027-08-01
Will Platense win Copa Libertadores? No	Open	20	45¢	$8	+90%	2026-12-12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	16¢	$8	+468%	2026-09-01
Will Haley Thogmartin be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 7)? Yes	Open	40	10¢	$7	+186%	2026-08-27
Will Sam Darnold be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes	Open	20	1¢	$7	+3067%	2026-08-31
Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	35	32¢	$7	+66%	2026-11-03
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes	Open	16	9¢	$7	+522%	2027-10-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? No	Open	20	32¢	$7	+111%	2026-09-30
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	10	26¢	$7	+264%	2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	15	14¢	$7	+325%	2026-12-31
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Japan by August 31? No	Open	20	6¢	$7	+561%	2026-09-03
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes? No	Open	13	22¢	$7	+234%	2026-09-20
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes	Open	10	9¢	$7	+726%	1970-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more? Yes	Open	20	42¢	$6	+76%	2026-11-03
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	10	24¢	$6	+272%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? Yes	Open	23	6¢	$6	+487%	1970-01-01
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	10	37¢	$6	+170%	2026-08-18
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%? No	Open	20	71¢	$6	+41%	2026-08-18
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes	Open	15	57¢	$6	+68%	2028-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No	Open	15	57¢	$6	+68%	2026-09-30
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? Yes	Open	10	27¢	$6	+213%	2026-09-01
Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Violent Typhoon"? No	Open	18	56¢	$6	+55%	2026-09-01
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026? No	Open	20	53¢	$6	+52%	2026-09-05
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 23? No	Open	14	64¢	$5	+56%	2026-08-23
Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election? No	Open	40	76¢	$5	+17%	2026-11-03
Multipli.fi FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Open	20	38¢	$5	+69%	2028-01-01
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long? Yes	Open	20	71¢	$5	+36%	2026-08-27
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	10	44¢	$5	+116%	2026-09-30
Will Uroš Medić fight Joaquin Buckley next? No	Open	20	69¢	$5	+37%	2027-08-01
Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD? No	Open	20	12¢	$5	+213%	2027-12-31
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	10	47¢	$5	+107%	2026-12-31
Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	20	74¢	$5	+34%	2027-06-30
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%? No	Open	20	75¢	$5	+33%	2026-08-18
Will iShowSpeed Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award? Yes	Open	20	47¢	$5	+50%	1970-01-01
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31? No	Open	20	74¢	$5	+31%	2026-08-31
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? No	Open	14	68¢	$4	+47%	2026-10-11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Yes	Open	20	66¢	$4	+33%	2026-09-30
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes	Open	15	66¢	$4	+42%	2026-09-24
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k? No	Open	10	37¢	$4	+114%	2026-12-31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No	Open	20	79¢	$4	+26%	2026-08-29
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027? No	Open	20	73¢	$4	+27%	1970-01-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026? No	Open	20	62¢	$4	+31%	2026-08-18
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	20	67¢	$4	+29%	2026-11-03
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No	Open	20	79¢	$4	+24%	2026-10-31
Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	10	63¢	$4	+59%	2026-08-11
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 20–25%? No	Open	21	81¢	$4	+23%	2026-08-11
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	20	82¢	$4	+22%	2026-08-31
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? Yes	Open	10	43¢	$4	+81%	2026-10-31
Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? No	Open	10	63¢	$3	+55%	2026-09-01
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30? No	Open	20	58¢	$3	+30%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	20	68¢	$3	+25%	2026-10-31
Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	20	65¢	$3	+26%	2027-01-21
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 24? Yes	Open	20	43¢	$3	+38%	2026-08-24
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? Yes	Open	30	17¢	$3	+62%	2026-11-03
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? No	Open	10	67¢	$3	+46%	2026-09-01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? No	Open	10	64¢	$3	+47%	2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	15	67¢	$3	+29%	2026-12-31
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	10	70¢	$3	+41%	2026-10-11
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	20	39¢	$3	+36%	2027-03-14
Will DN SOOPers Win the Shortest Game in LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4? No	Open	20	86¢	$3	+16%	1970-01-01
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31? No	Open	20	42¢	$3	+33%	2026-12-31
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? No	Open	10	54¢	$3	+49%	2027-01-01
Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? No	Open	10	61¢	$3	+43%	2026-10-01
Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 25%? No	Open	10	74¢	$3	+35%	2026-08-04
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? No	Open	10	75¢	$3	+34%	2026-08-11
Will Mario Colberth Reyna Rodríguez win the next Trujillo mayoral elections? No	Open	20	80¢	$3	+16%	2026-10-04
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	77¢	$3	+16%	2026-08-31
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	30	92¢	$3	+9%	2026-10-31
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion? No	Open	20	40¢	$2	+30%	2026-11-03
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? No	Open	10	70¢	$2	+34%	2026-09-30
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No	Open	10	73¢	$2	+32%	2026-08-31
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	10	70¢	$2	+33%	2026-09-20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	10	69¢	$2	+33%	2026-08-31
Will the Cincinnati Reds win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? U 78.5	Open	20	68¢	$2	+16%	2026-10-05
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	33¢	$2	+33%	2026-09-30
Will Pedro Paulo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? No	Open	20	73¢	$2	+15%	2026-10-04
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	20	70¢	$2	+15%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.25 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	89¢	$2	+12%	2026-08-31
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	21	90¢	$2	+11%	2026-08-25
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? No	Open	20	79¢	$2	+13%	2026-09-04
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 24? No	Open	20	72¢	$2	+14%	2026-08-24
Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	10	80¢	$2	+25%	2026-11-13
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No	Open	10	75¢	$2	+27%	1970-01-01
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? Yes	Open	20	48¢	$2	+21%	2026-09-10
Will Doug McCallum win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election? No	Open	20	78¢	$2	+13%	2026-10-17
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? No	Open	10	79¢	$2	+24%	2026-08-04
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? No	Open	20	29¢	$2	+33%	2026-10-04
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No	Open	15	86¢	$2	+14%	2026-10-17
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	10	77¢	$2	+23%	2027-07-01
Will J.J. McCarthy be the Vikings' Week 1 starting QB? No	Open	10	79¢	$2	+22%	2026-09-14
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%? No	Open	12	85¢	$2	+17%	2027-01-10
Will Bill Walker advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	10	82¢	$2	+21%	2026-08-18
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? No	Open	10	76¢	$2	+23%	2026-09-30
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? No	Open	10	58¢	$2	+30%	2026-10-05
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No	Open	15	74¢	$2	+16%	2026-10-17
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District? No	Open	20	80¢	$2	+11%	2026-10-04
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	66¢	$2	+26%	2027-01-01
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	10	83¢	$2	+20%	2026-08-11
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No	Open	10	67¢	$2	+25%	2026-12-31
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No	Open	15	88¢	$2	+13%	2026-10-03
Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No	Open	10	73¢	$2	+22%	2027-06-06
Will The Social Reckoning get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	10	83¢	$2	+19%	2027-02-28
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? No	Open	12	55¢	$2	+24%	2027-07-01
Will CJ Abrams lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No	Open	20	87¢	$2	+9%	2026-09-28
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No	Open	15	70¢	$2	+15%	2026-10-03
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? No	Open	20	92¢	$2	+9%	2026-08-29
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? No	Open	20	92¢	$2	+8%	2026-08-13
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.? No	Open	30	87¢	$2	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? No	Open	20	81¢	$2	+9%	2026-08-28
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? No	Open	20	70¢	$2	+11%	2026-10-29
Will Renan Filho win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election? No	Open	20	58¢	$2	+13%	2026-10-04
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30? No	Open	20	78¢	$1	+10%	2026-09-30
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? No	Open	10	78¢	$1	+18%	2026-09-30
Will the New York Yankees hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	20	66¢	$1	+11%	2026-10-11
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Open	20	33¢	$1	+22%	2026-10-04
Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? No	Open	15	87¢	$1	+11%	2026-09-14
Will Otto Lopez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	15	86¢	$1	+11%	2026-09-28
Will J.B. Pritzker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No	Open	13	85¢	$1	+13%	2028-08-10
Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No	Open	15	84¢	$1	+11%	2027-06-06
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No	Open	9	78¢	$1	+20%	2026-12-31
Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala? No	Open	10	81¢	$1	+16%	2026-11-03
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No	Open	15	89¢	$1	+10%	2026-11-12
Will Grüne win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	20	53¢	$1	+12%	2026-09-20
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 24? No	Open	21	93¢	$1	+7%	2026-08-24
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	15	85¢	$1	+10%	2026-12-31
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25? No	Open	12	60¢	$1	+18%	2026-08-25
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	81¢	$1	+15%	2026-08-31
Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland? No	Open	35	22¢	$1	+16%	2026-09-13
Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? No	Open	10	80¢	$1	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Jason Poulos be the MA-04 Democratic nominee? No	Open	21	91¢	$1	+6%	2026-09-01
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? No	Open	20	77¢	$1	+8%	2026-09-13
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? No	Open	60	76¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	92¢	$1	+6%	2026-08-31
Will Alexandre Guimarães win the most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election? No	Open	20	80¢	$1	+7%	2026-10-04
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election? Yes	Open	21	45¢	$1	+12%	2026-10-04
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	75¢	$1	+15%	2026-12-31
Multipli.fi FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes	Open	15	85¢	$1	+9%	2028-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? No	Open	15	74¢	$1	+10%	2026-11-03
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No	Open	20	60¢	$1	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? Yes	Open	20	51¢	$1	+11%	2026-10-05
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election? No	Open	10	74¢	$1	+15%	2027-05-01
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No	Open	15	91¢	$1	+8%	2026-10-01
Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? No	Open	10	87¢	$1	+12%	2026-09-27
Will Marcus Rashford join Barcelona? No	Open	20	92¢	$1	+6%	2026-09-02
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? Yes	Open	15	47¢	$1	+15%	2027-01-19
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? No	Open	10	77¢	$1	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	10	68¢	$1	+15%	2026-09-20
Will Nebojša Vukanović be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? No	Open	10	87¢	$1	+11%	2027-12-31
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	10	85¢	$1	+11%	2026-09-30
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next? Yes	Open	21	39¢	$1	+12%	2027-07-18
Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31? No	Open	10	87¢	$1	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? No	Open	10	83¢	$1	+12%	2026-09-14
Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026? No	Open	21	91¢	$1	+5%	2026-12-31
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? No	Open	10	74¢	$1	+13%	2028-01-01
Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	20	95¢	$1	+5%	2026-08-18
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? No	Open	10	86¢	$1	+11%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	20	95¢	$1	+5%	2026-08-31
Will Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election? No	Open	20	79¢	$1	+6%	2027-02-06
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? Yes	Open	10	72¢	$1	+13%	2026-09-30
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Open	21	91¢	$1	+5%	2026-12-31
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	19	93¢	$1	+5%	2026-09-29
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? No	Open	10	72¢	$1	+12%	2026-12-13
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No	Open	13	71¢	$1	+9%	2026-09-20
Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections? Yes	Open	20	93¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-20
Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? No	Open	10	90¢	$1	+9%	2026-11-03
Will Napoli qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? No	Open	20	34¢	$1	+12%	2027-09-01
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? No	Open	10	92¢	$1	+8%	2026-08-31
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? No	Open	8	88¢	$1	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Open	20	89¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Green Party (MP) win less than 5% of all valid votes? No	Open	21	83¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-13
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30? No	Open	10	88¢	$1	+8%	2026-09-30
Will Left Party (V) win at least 9% of all valid votes? No	Open	20	83¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-13
Will Taylor Dearden – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series? No	Open	10	91¢	$1	+8%	2026-09-14
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	10	93¢	$1	+7%	2026-10-04
Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	10	93¢	$1	+7%	2027-03-14
Will Grok 5 be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	93¢	$1	+7%	2026-09-01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August? No	Open	10	83¢	$1	+7%	2026-09-01
Will the Texas Rangers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No	Open	15	57¢	$1	+7%	2026-09-28
Will Angela Murray come in third-place on Big Brother season 28? No	Open	20	93¢	$1	+3%	2026-10-01
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? No	Open	15	91¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Open	10	92¢	$1	+6%	2028-01-01
Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31? No	Open	17	94¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August? No	Open	10	88¢	$1	+6%	2026-08-31
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat? No	Open	10	78¢	$1	+7%	2026-11-03
Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes	Open	20	36¢	$1	+8%	2026-10-11
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No	Open	15	88¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	20	86¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-20
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	15	97¢	$1	+4%	2026-10-31
Will Lindsey Graham be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No	Open	20	90¢	$1	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No	Open	24	95¢	$1	+2%	2026-11-13
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer? No	Open	10	94¢	$1	+5%	2026-09-01
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 23? No	Open	21	98¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-23
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+5%	2026-09-29
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	21	89¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No	Open	10	94¢	$0	+5%	2027-05-30
Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections? Yes	Open	19	94¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-20
Will Teach You a Lesson be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? No	Open	10	92¢	$0	+5%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-01
Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	10	92¢	$0	+5%	1970-01-01
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31? No	Open	20	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Rafael Fiziev fight Mateusz Gamrot next? No	Open	17	94¢	$0	+3%	2027-06-27
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be at least 180? No	Open	14	92¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	15	96¢	$0	+3%	2026-08-11
Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026? No	Open	17	94¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026? No	Open	10	88¢	$0	+5%	2026-12-31
Will SpaceX have 16+ launches in August 2026? No	Open	20	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-31
Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections? Yes	Open	20	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-20
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No	Open	20	83¢	$0	+2%	2027-07-01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? Yes	Open	20	77¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-16
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No	Open	20	91¢	$0	+2%	2027-06-30
Will Ben Rice win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+4%	2026-11-13
Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026? No	Open	10	90¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Ulta say "Healthy" during earnings call? Yes	Open	39	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-27
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-31
Will CopperTech Metals not IPO before September 2026? Yes	Open	10	93¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-01
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series? Yes	Open	10	87¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-14
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-02
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-31
Will Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? No	Open	10	86¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-14
Will United Russia win the next Chuvashia Parliament elections? Yes	Open	20	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-20
Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+4%	2026-11-13
Will Khathutshelo Rasilingwane be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni? No	Open	8	90¢	$0	+5%	2026-11-05
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No	Open	10	86¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Open	20	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-10-31
Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No	Open	20	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%? No	Open	20	80¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-03
Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? No	Open	21	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-28
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	10	94¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+3%	2027-12-31
Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? No	Open	11	94¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-19
Will “Saturday Night Live” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? No	Open	10	91¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-14
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 18% or more? No	Open	15	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-03
Will New York Jets win the 2026 AFC East? No	Open	20	95¢	$0	+2%	2027-01-04
Will Hundred Fingers advance to the Semifinals or Finals of AGT Season 21 during the Quarterfinals? No	Open	20	36¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-16
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 25? No	Open	9	91¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-25
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+3%	2026-08-31
Will the Republican Party win the MN-02 House seat? No	Open	10	89¢	$0	+3%	2026-11-04
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election? No	Open	20	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-03
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+3%	2026-08-26
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+3%	2026-10-04
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? No	Open	20	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-03
Yo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No	Open	20	93¢	$0	+1%	2028-01-01
Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections? No	Open	20	82¢	$0	+2%	2026-10-03
Will The Boys be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? No	Open	20	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series? No	Open	20	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-14
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? No	Open	12	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-01
Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections? Yes	Open	15	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-20
Will United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections? Yes	Open	15	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-20
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North? No	Open	15	71¢	$0	+2%	2027-01-04
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? No	Open	10	86¢	$0	+2%	2026-10-01
Will Zendaya – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series? No	Open	10	93¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-14
Will Esperidião Amin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election? No	Open	20	89¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-04
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-01
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	19	97¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-30
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-05 House Election? Yes	Open	13	92¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-03
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-31
Relay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No	Open	28	97¢	$0	+1%	2028-01-01
Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? No	Open	15	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-07
Will DeMar DeRozan play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? Yes	Open	20	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-31
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026? No	Open	11	96¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in August 2026? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-31
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? No	Open	20	93¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-28
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	93¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31? No	Open	10	93¢	$0	+2%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No	Open	10	91¢	$0	+2%	2027-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? Yes	Open	10	78¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Project Hail Mary be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	21	88¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-03
GTA VI released by September 30? No	Open	20	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
Relay FDV above $700M one day after launch? No	Open	13	87¢	$0	+1%	2028-01-01
Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026? No	Open	9	95¢	$0	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? No	Open	15	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-28
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? No	Open	11	95¢	$0	+1%	2027-02-07
Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+1%	2027-04-30
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	20	39¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 25? No	Open	20	39¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-25
Will the Republican Party win the MI-08 House seat? No	Open	14	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-04
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-11
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August? No	Open	10	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections? No	Open	21	84¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will Craig Swallow be the MA-09 Democratic nominee? No	Open	20	97¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Open	23	92¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party win the VA-07 House seat? No	Open	15	91¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-04
Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No	Open	20	95¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-07
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August? No	Open	10	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-01
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No	Open	20	94¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? No	Open	20	92¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Julián LeBarón win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election? No	Open	20	93¢	$0	+0%	2027-06-06
Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $4.8B and $5.4B at market close on IPO day? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Juan Soto hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-11
Will Zenaide Maia win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? No	Open	20	84¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will Codex launch a token by September 30, 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-01
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat? No	Open	10	91¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	20	92¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat? No	Open	20	90¢	$0	0%	2026-11-03
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Open	20	85¢	$0	0%	2026-12-31
Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No	Open	15	98¢	$0	0%	2027-04-30
Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026? No	Open	10	97¢	$0	0%	2026-12-31
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $60B by December 31? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	0%	2027-01-01
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? No	Open	10	87¢	$0	0%	2027-01-31
Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Open	16	96¢	-$0	-0%	2028-01-01
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Luciano Darderi Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026? No	Open	10	93¢	-$0	-0%	1970-01-01
Will Wes Moore be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No	Open	20	96¢	-$0	-0%	2028-08-10
Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	20	95¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28? No	Open	10	94¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-01
Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No	Open	10	95¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-26
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 24? No	Open	20	98¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-24
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No	Open	14	88¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-01
Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? No	Open	20	96¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will the New York Yankees have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	10	98¢	-$0	-1%	2026-10-11
Will Learner Tien Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026? No	Open	10	94¢	-$0	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes	Open	10	97¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-20
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? Yes	Open	20	79¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-27
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–$2.40 in August? No	Open	20	77¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-11
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	87¢	-$0	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No	Open	10	92¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-26
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more? No	Open	19	92¢	-$0	-1%	2026-11-03
Valantis FDV above $150M one day after launch? No	Open	16	83¢	-$0	-1%	2028-01-01
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No	Open	10	92¢	-$0	-2%	2027-01-26
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North? No	Open	10	85¢	-$0	-2%	2027-01-04
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? No	Open	10	77¢	-$0	-2%	2026-10-29
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No	Open	10	89¢	-$0	-2%	2027-01-26
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? No	Open	31	90¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-25
Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? No	Open	20	98¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-13
Will Allison Janney – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series? No	Open	10	97¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-14
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	10	95¢	-$0	-2%	2027-04-17
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30? No	Open	10	91¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-30
Will Styvenson Valentim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? No	Open	21	79¢	-$0	-1%	2026-10-04
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? No	Open	20	63¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-20
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 25? No	Open	14	80¢	-$0	-2%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	10	88¢	-$0	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No	Open	15	95¢	-$0	-2%	2026-10-03
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? No	Open	19	92¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-28
Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? No	Open	10	93¢	-$0	-3%	2026-12-13
Will Julio Cesar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election? No	Open	21	79¢	-$0	-2%	2026-10-04
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No	Open	15	87¢	-$0	-2%	2026-11-17
Will Leila do Vôlei win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? No	Open	20	73¢	-$0	-2%	2026-10-04
Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026? No	Open	20	89¢	-$0	-2%	2026-11-03
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 25? No	Open	24	45¢	-$0	-3%	2026-08-25
Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	-$0	-4%	2026-09-01
Will Renée Good be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? No	Open	20	96¢	-$0	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Nabor win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election? No	Open	20	97¢	-$0	-2%	2026-10-04
Will Wisconsin have the closest Governor's race in 2026? No	Open	10	92¢	-$0	-4%	2026-11-03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	20	57¢	-$0	-4%	2027-07-01
Reya FDV above $40M one day after launch? No	Open	20	49¢	-$0	-4%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election by 25%-30%? No	Open	20	81¢	-$0	-2%	2026-11-03
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? No	Open	20	77¢	-$0	-3%	2026-09-03
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes? No	Open	20	68¢	-$0	-3%	2026-09-20
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 24? No	Open	13	69¢	-$0	-4%	2026-08-24
Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? No	Open	10	91¢	-$0	-4%	2026-08-18
Will Team Falcons Make a Roster Change Before September? No	Open	10	96¢	-$0	-4%	1970-01-01
Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028? No	Open	10	85¢	-$0	-5%	2028-12-31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Open	10	95¢	-$0	-5%	2026-12-09
Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Open	11	93¢	-$0	-4%	2028-01-01
Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	10	94¢	-$0	-5%	2027-03-14
Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Open	10	94¢	-$0	-5%	2028-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? No	Open	20	97¢	-$1	-3%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? No	Open	20	89¢	-$1	-3%	2027-12-31
Will "Buddy" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	20	88¢	-$1	-3%	2026-08-31
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	20	78¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-13
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? No	Open	20	76¢	-$1	-3%	2026-10-04
Will Marty Quinn be the Oklahoma Commissioner of Insurance Republican nominee? No	Open	20	74¢	-$1	-3%	2026-08-25
Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes? No	Open	20	63¢	-$1	-4%	2026-09-20
Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series? No	Open	10	93¢	-$1	-6%	2026-09-14
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No	Open	10	98¢	-$1	-5%	2026-10-04
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No	Open	10	91¢	-$1	-6%	2026-12-31
Will Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? No	Open	10	81¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-14
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No	Open	10	84¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-01
Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? No	Open	9	87¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-20
Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? No	Open	20	93¢	-$1	-3%	2027-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	94¢	-$1	-7%	2026-12-31
Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch? No	Open	20	93¢	-$1	-3%	2028-01-01
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year? No	Open	20	77¢	-$1	-4%	2026-12-13
Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)? No	Open	10	96¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-14
Will Paul W. Downs – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series? No	Open	10	93¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-14
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	10	96¢	-$1	-7%	2026-12-31
Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? No	Open	20	41¢	-$1	-9%	2027-02-06
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes	Open	20	94¢	-$1	-4%	2026-09-10
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? No	Open	15	84¢	-$1	-6%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No	Open	20	81¢	-$1	-5%	2027-07-01
Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election? No	Open	20	86¢	-$1	-5%	2027-06-30
Will Scott Black win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election? No	Open	10	83¢	-$1	-10%	2026-11-03
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	21	74¢	-$1	-5%	2026-09-13
Will Zendaya be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? No	Open	10	94¢	-$1	-9%	2026-12-31
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 in August? No	Open	10	94¢	-$1	-9%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026? No	Open	21	94¢	-$1	-5%	2026-08-31
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No	Open	10	90¢	-$1	-10%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? No	Open	20	85¢	-$1	-5%	2026-08-28
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	20	81¢	-$1	-6%	2026-10-31
Will Democrats win exactly 7 House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	20	73¢	-$1	-6%	2026-11-03
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? No	Open	20	71¢	-$1	-6%	2026-10-04
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 24? No	Open	20	95¢	-$1	-5%	2026-08-24
Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Open	20	96¢	-$1	-5%	2027-01-01
Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings No	Open	15	93¢	-$1	-7%	1970-01-01
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? No	Open	25	87¢	-$1	-4%	2026-10-01
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 49.0 in August? No	Open	15	87¢	-$1	-8%	2026-08-28
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of August 24 2026? No	Open	20	47¢	-$1	-11%	2026-08-28
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? No	Open	20	97¢	-$1	-5%	2026-09-30
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28? No	Open	10	91¢	-$1	-11%	2026-10-01
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	20	85¢	-$1	-6%	2026-11-03
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	20	82¢	-$1	-7%	2028-01-01
Will "Widow's Bay" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	21	89¢	-$1	-6%	2026-09-14
Will Fabiano Contarato win the second-most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election? No	Open	20	87¢	-$1	-7%	2026-10-04
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	89¢	-$1	-13%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	95¢	-$1	-13%	2026-12-31
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? No	Open	15	87¢	-$1	-9%	2026-11-01
Will Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? No	Open	21	91¢	-$1	-7%	2026-09-14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 25%-30%? No	Open	20	83¢	-$1	-8%	2026-11-03
Will Gustavo Gayer win the second-most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election? Yes	Open	20	56¢	-$1	-12%	2026-10-04
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	20	44¢	-$1	-15%	2026-11-03
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West? Yes	Open	40	35¢	-$1	-10%	2027-01-04
Will Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? No	Open	10	92¢	-$1	-15%	2026-09-14
Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No	Open	20	74¢	-$1	-9%	2026-11-22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	15	71¢	-$1	-13%	2026-10-31
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Open	10	92¢	-$1	-16%	2027-12-31
Will Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series? No	Open	10	91¢	-$1	-16%	2026-09-14
Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election? No	Open	20	71¢	-$2	-11%	2027-06-06
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat? No	Open	15	82¢	-$2	-12%	2026-11-04
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes	Open	15	91¢	-$2	-11%	2028-01-01
Will G2 Esports Qualify to VCT Champs 2026? Yes	Open	10	97¢	-$2	-16%	1970-01-01
Will Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? No	Open	20	83¢	-$2	-9%	2027-06-06
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? No	Open	20	85¢	-$2	-9%	2027-06-30
Will CTBC Flying Oyster Win LCP 2026 Split 3? No	Open	20	90¢	-$2	-9%	1970-01-01
Will no press briefing air by August 31? No	Open	10	94¢	-$2	-18%	2026-08-31
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards? No	Open	21	56¢	-$2	-15%	2026-09-14
Will Alex Cora be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? No	Open	20	73¢	-$2	-12%	2027-01-01
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	20	61¢	-$2	-15%	2026-08-25
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? No	Open	15	92¢	-$2	-14%	2027-01-01
Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? No	Open	20	82¢	-$2	-12%	2026-09-13
Will there be exactly 4 North Korea tests in August 2026? No	Open	20	82¢	-$2	-12%	2026-08-31
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? No	Open	15	95¢	-$2	-13%	2026-10-26
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? No	Open	20	85¢	-$2	-11%	2026-11-03
Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	10	96¢	-$2	-21%	2026-10-11
Will Rogerio Carvalho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election? No	Open	20	85¢	-$2	-12%	2026-10-04
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Open	20	50¢	-$2	-20%	2026-12-31
Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards? No	Open	10	98¢	-$2	-21%	2027-01-12
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No	Open	15	70¢	-$2	-21%	2026-12-31
Will Rony Paolo Vejarano Pérez win the next Huancayo mayoral elections? No	Open	20	80¢	-$2	-14%	2026-10-04
Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? Yes	Open	20	56¢	-$2	-20%	2027-06-06
Will Dalton Kincaid have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Open	20	95¢	-$2	-12%	2027-01-12
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.7%? Yes	Open	21	53¢	-$2	-22%	2026-09-10
Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? No	Open	20	90¢	-$3	-14%	2026-11-28
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? No	Open	14	92¢	-$3	-20%	2027-06-06
Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No	Open	20	97¢	-$3	-14%	2026-12-31
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	20	66¢	-$3	-20%	2026-08-31
Will Marcio Bittar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election? No	Open	15	86¢	-$3	-21%	2026-10-04
Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30? No	Open	20	89¢	-$3	-16%	2026-09-30
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%? No	Open	13	92¢	-$3	-27%	2027-01-08
Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? No	Open	20	91¢	-$3	-17%	2026-10-04
Will Ulta say "Diamond" during earnings call? No	Open	40	61¢	-$3	-13%	2026-08-27
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $47.5B by August 31? Yes	Open	20	55¢	-$3	-29%	2026-09-01
Will Databricks not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	18	83¢	-$3	-23%	2027-12-31
Linera listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	20	62¢	-$4	-29%	2028-02-01
Tuyo FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Open	15	90¢	-$4	-27%	2028-01-01
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on August 24? No	Open	20	81¢	-$4	-23%	2026-08-24
Next DeepSeek Flash released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	20	89¢	-$4	-21%	2026-10-01
Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election? No	Open	40	82¢	-$4	-12%	2026-10-04
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31? Down	Open	20	95¢	-$4	-21%	2026-08-31
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No	Open	15	97¢	-$4	-31%	2026-10-17
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? No	Open	20	80¢	-$5	-28%	2027-12-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	20	83¢	-$5	-31%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	20	76¢	-$6	-40%	2026-08-25
Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30? No	Open	20	86¢	-$7	-41%	2026-09-30
Will New York Jets finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards? No	Open	20	97¢	-$7	-38%	2027-01-12
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? No	Open	20	88¢	-$8	-45%	2026-10-04
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	41	90¢	-$9	-25%	2026-10-01
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? No	Open	40	59¢	-$11	-46%	2026-12-01
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? Yes	Open	173	25¢	-$13	-29%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat? No	Open	160	21¢	-$19	-59%	2026-11-04

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →