Wallet positions

0xeed8…35f0

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$75.84

Win rate

55.3%

Realized edge

+0.7 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +0.7 pp across 47 resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.9, +4.7], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-11 21:57:04 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Held	335.008	87.99¢	87.5¢	$293.13	$21.6K	-0.6%	2026-10-05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	1,785.011	83.99¢	83.5¢	$1.5K	$13.3K	-0.6%	2026-10-29
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No	Held	71.8403	23.99¢	23.5¢	$16.88	$4.5K	-2.1%	2027-01-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes	Held	4.32	11.99¢	11.5¢	$0.50	$2.4K	-4.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	112.0813	37.99¢	38.5¢	$43.15	$1.8K	+1.3%	2026-11-04
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Held	270.03	19¢	18.5¢	$49.96	$1.3K	-2.6%	2027-01-01
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	726	4¢	3.3¢	$23.96	$1.1K	-17.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	25.1154	20.99¢	21.5¢	$5.40	$1.0K	+2.4%	2026-11-04
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	2,065.9702	71.99¢	71.5¢	$1.5K	$428.37	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No	Held	191	50¢	39¢	$74.49	$415.97	-22.0%	2027-02-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	57	40¢	36.5¢	$20.80	$408.83	-8.8%	2027-01-01
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? No	Held	109	55.05¢	57.5¢	$62.67	$259.71	+4.4%	2026-10-26
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,507	12¢	11.5¢	$173.31	$169.36	-4.2%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026? No	Held	51	18¢	15¢	$7.65	$124.97	-16.7%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? No	Held	128.0063	14¢	11¢	$14.08	$100.50	-21.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes	Held	60	5¢	4.5¢	$2.70	$96.90	-10.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the FL-06 House seat? No	Held	225.09	6¢	2.95¢	$6.64	$92.10	-50.8%	2026-11-04
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? Yes	Held	50	18¢	9.5¢	$4.75	$77.31	-47.2%	2026-11-01
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election? No	Held	28.66	22¢	12.5¢	$3.58	$61.52	-43.2%	2027-02-07
Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? No	Held	1.6666	85¢	89.5¢	$1.49	$47.76	+5.3%	2027-01-01
Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? No	Held	10	35¢	27.5¢	$2.75	$40.55	-21.4%	2027-02-06
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? Yes	Held	4.55	12.9¢	12.9¢	$0.59	$39.83	0.0%	2026-10-14
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? Yes	Held	2.3809	37¢	28.5¢	$0.68	$32.37	-23.0%	2026-10-14
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? Yes	Held	62	39¢	29.5¢	$18.29	$31.35	-24.4%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat? Yes	Held	152	5¢	4¢	$6.08	$29.53	-20.0%	2026-11-04
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? Yes	Held	79	30.99¢	20.5¢	$16.20	$27.01	-33.9%	2027-01-01
Will iShowSpeed Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award? No	Held	96.656	29¢	28.5¢	$27.55	$26.65	-1.7%	—
Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027? Yes	Held	3	47¢	90¢	$2.70	$15.62	+91.5%	2027-01-01
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? No	Held	507	40¢	33.5¢	$169.84	$15.25	-16.3%	2028-01-01
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? No	Held	2	48¢	75.5¢	$1.51	$14.27	+57.3%	2026-10-11
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-07 House seat? Yes	Held	69	5¢	4.5¢	$3.10	$9.46	-10.0%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	1.194	33¢	33.5¢	$0.40	$7.84	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Will Brothers Osborne win Vocal Duo of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? Yes	Held	41	3.12¢	20.5¢	$8.40	$7.12	+556.0%	2026-11-19
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	0.78	73¢	61¢	$0.48	$5.81	-16.4%	2026-10-28
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-36 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	6.5	9.09¢	19¢	$1.24	$5.18	+109.0%	2026-11-04
Will Jiří Veselka be the next Mayor of Liberec? Yes	Held	60.52	2.85¢	11.05¢	$6.69	$4.96	+286.7%	2026-10-10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-09 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	4.9931	30.49¢	31.35¢	$1.57	$4.32	+2.8%	2026-11-04
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? Yes	Held	7	43¢	19¢	$1.33	$3.82	-55.8%	2026-10-13
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 30%-35%? Yes	Held	25	30.8¢	28¢	$7.00	$3.72	-9.1%	2026-11-04
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	1.67	20¢	16¢	$0.27	$3.16	-20.0%	2026-12-31
Will CeeDee Lamb finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions? Yes	Held	15.05	15.73¢	5.1¢	$0.77	$2.85	-67.6%	2027-01-27
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	4	3.03¢	13.3¢	$0.53	$2.70	+338.8%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	3	36¢	30.5¢	$0.92	$2.63	-15.3%	2027-01-01
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	12.7	31¢	5.5¢	$0.70	$1.95	-82.3%	2027-07-01
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire? Yes	Held	395	17¢	8.5¢	$33.58	$1.94	-50.0%	2026-12-31
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1? Yes	Held	2.58	12.5¢	38.9¢	$1.00	$1.63	+211.2%	2026-10-18
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? No	Held	2.9411	66¢	68¢	$2.00	$1.46	+3.0%	2027-01-09
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election? Yes	Held	28	2.7¢	7.6¢	$2.13	$1.37	+181.2%	2027-06-07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 50% or more? Yes	Held	4	7.69¢	11¢	$0.44	$1.01	+43.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more? No	Held	4.47	46¢	47¢	$2.10	$0.84	+2.2%	2026-11-04
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	24	3.03¢	6.3¢	$1.51	$0.78	+107.9%	2027-01-01
Will Saquon Barkley be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	20	0.9¢	3.8¢	$0.76	$0.70	+321.8%	2027-01-27
Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	21	2.85¢	6.05¢	$1.27	$0.67	+111.8%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	9	14.28¢	21¢	$1.89	$0.60	+47.0%	2027-01-11
Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 89% to 92%? Yes	Held	23	20¢	22.5¢	$5.17	$0.57	+12.5%	2026-10-14
Will Tencent be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	21	2.85¢	5.25¢	$1.10	$0.50	+83.8%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Held	62	2.17¢	0.5¢	$0.31	$0.45	-77.0%	2026-11-01
Will Yussuf Poulsen (RB Leipzig) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season? Yes	Held	82	1.69¢	2.15¢	$1.76	$0.37	+26.8%	2027-05-31
Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award? No	Held	1.8506	76.7¢	93.9¢	$1.74	$0.32	+22.4%	—
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará? No	Held	1.47	72¢	90.5¢	$1.33	$0.27	+25.7%	2026-10-26
Will Meituan be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	3.03¢	4.2¢	$0.84	$0.23	+38.6%	2027-01-01
Will DeepSeek be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	3.03¢	4.15¢	$0.83	$0.22	+36.9%	2027-01-01
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? Yes	Held	22	20¢	21¢	$4.62	$0.22	+5.0%	2026-10-25
Will Ladd McConkey win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	2.45¢	$0.43	$0.22	+103.3%	2027-03-01
Will Tencent be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	24	3.03¢	3.85¢	$0.92	$0.20	+27.0%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	26	2.85¢	3.6¢	$0.94	$0.19	+26.0%	2027-01-01
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Victorian Legislative Council election? Yes	Held	10	6.66¢	8.5¢	$0.85	$0.18	+27.5%	2026-11-29
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 55%-60%? No	Held	3.7209	78.5¢	81.65¢	$3.04	$0.12	+4.0%	2026-11-04
Will Zay Flowers win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.85¢	$0.32	$0.11	+53.5%	2027-03-01
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.65¢	$0.29	$0.08	+36.9%	2027-03-01
Will Tibor Batthyány be the next Mayor of Liberec? Yes	Held	55.52	2.85¢	2.85¢	$1.58	$0.06	-0.2%	2026-10-10
Will Mistral be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	21	2.85¢	3.15¢	$0.66	$0.06	+10.3%	2027-01-01
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.55¢	$0.27	$0.06	+28.6%	2027-03-01
Will A.J. Brown win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Davante Adams win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Javonte Williams win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Josh Jacobs win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Drake Maye win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.45¢	$0.25	$0.04	+20.3%	2027-03-01
Will Prodigy SEG Win the 2026 Esports Supporting Service of the Year Award? No	Held	1	83¢	60¢	$0.60	$0.04	-27.7%	2026-12-15
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31? No	Held	1.33	94.4¢	97.3¢	$1.29	$0.04	+3.1%	2026-10-31
Will Nico Collins win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? Yes	Held	17.5471	1.2¢	1.4¢	$0.25	$0.03	+16.1%	2027-03-01
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.75% at the end of 2027? No	Held	4.43	91¢	89.5¢	$3.96	-$0.10	-1.6%	2028-01-01
Will ByteDance be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	21	2.85¢	2.35¢	$0.49	-$0.11	-17.7%	2027-01-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000? No	Held	4.33	65¢	66.5¢	$2.88	-$0.15	+2.3%	2026-11-04
Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	22	4¢	3¢	$0.66	-$0.22	-25.0%	2026-12-01
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? Yes	Held	1.5	56¢	33¢	$0.49	-$0.34	-41.1%	2026-11-16
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	3.03¢	1.15¢	$0.23	-$0.38	-62.0%	2027-01-01
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	2.05	84.8¢	65.7¢	$1.35	-$0.39	-22.5%	2026-11-01
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes	Held	32.84	2.17¢	1¢	$0.33	-$0.40	-54.0%	2027-02-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jon Ossoff by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3	82.9¢	94.1¢	$2.82	-$0.42	+13.5%	2026-10-31
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat? Yes	Held	86	5¢	4.5¢	$3.87	-$0.43	-10.0%	2026-11-04
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	36.99	2.85¢	1.7¢	$0.63	-$0.43	-40.5%	2026-12-01
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than -0.3%? Yes	Held	7.41	14.28¢	8.35¢	$0.62	-$0.44	-41.5%	2026-12-02
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election? No	Held	22	19¢	17¢	$3.74	-$0.44	-10.5%	2027-06-07
Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	22	4¢	1.95¢	$0.43	-$0.45	-51.3%	2026-12-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	23	16¢	14¢	$3.22	-$0.46	-12.5%	2026-11-04
Will Gabriel Tardio be Number 1 in the PPA 2026-27 Men's End of Year Rankings? Yes	Held	22.3	5.88¢	3.7¢	$0.83	-$0.49	-37.1%	2027-05-16
Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	0.52	70¢	63¢	$0.33	-$0.51	-10.0%	2026-11-04
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election? Yes	Held	3.9733	25¢	12¢	$0.48	-$0.52	-52.0%	2027-06-07
Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat? Yes	Held	136	5¢	4.5¢	$6.12	-$0.68	-10.0%	2026-11-04
Will RZP-Zehut win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	90.1	2.56¢	1.8¢	$1.62	-$0.69	-29.8%	2026-10-28
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-07 House election by 0%-5%? Yes	Held	21	8.33¢	4.35¢	$0.91	-$0.84	-47.8%	2026-11-04
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026? Yes	Held	47	42¢	29.5¢	$13.87	-$0.85	-29.8%	2027-01-01
Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	90.1	2.56¢	1.6¢	$1.44	-$0.87	-37.6%	2026-10-28
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 10%-20%? Yes	Held	31.63	7.69¢	4.85¢	$1.53	-$0.90	-36.9%	2026-11-04
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	9	14.28¢	3.8¢	$0.34	-$0.94	-73.4%	2027-01-11
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 750,000 and 800,000? Yes	Held	4	30¢	24.5¢	$0.98	-$0.98	-18.3%	2026-11-04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October? Yes	Held	206	12¢	11.5¢	$23.69	-$1.03	-4.2%	2026-11-01
Will The Reservists and the Economic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	80.89	2.56¢	1.55¢	$1.25	-$1.04	-39.6%	2026-10-28
Will OpenRouter process between 575T and 625T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? Yes	Held	27	26¢	5¢	$1.35	-$1.05	-80.8%	2026-10-26
Will Cameroon win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group G? Yes	Held	29	85¢	81¢	$23.49	-$1.16	-4.7%	2027-03-31
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? No	Held	1	83¢	98.3¢	$0.98	-$1.19	+18.4%	2026-11-01
Will a team from EMEA win VALORANT Champions 2026? No	Held	4.41	82¢	71.65¢	$3.16	-$1.24	-12.6%	2026-10-20
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-36 House election by 25%-30%? Yes	Held	6.5	9.09¢	5.75¢	$0.37	-$1.35	-36.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OK-01 House election? Yes	Held	20	9.09¢	2.1¢	$0.42	-$1.40	-76.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 20%-25%? Yes	Held	3	25¢	21.5¢	$0.65	-$1.43	-14.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-01 House election by 0%-5%? Yes	Held	20	9.09¢	1.85¢	$0.37	-$1.45	-79.6%	2026-11-04
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 investment banking revenue be above $2.6B? No	Held	1.4418	93¢	81¢	$1.17	-$1.47	-12.9%	2026-10-14
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026? No	Held	0.9836	39¢	30¢	$0.29	-$1.49	-23.1%	2026-12-01
Will United Torah Judaism win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	90.1	2.56¢	0.9¢	$0.81	-$1.50	-64.9%	2026-10-28
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Thomas Massie by October 31, 2026? No	Held	2	74¢	53¢	$1.06	-$1.63	-28.4%	2026-10-31
Will Pep Guardiola's next job be Brazil? Yes	Held	21	11¢	3.1¢	$0.65	-$1.66	-71.8%	2028-07-01
Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	11.6¢	2.85¢	$0.57	-$1.75	-75.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Samsung Lions win the 2026 Korean Series? Yes	Held	11.26	28¢	23.5¢	$2.65	-$1.75	-16.1%	2026-11-01
Will Blue and White win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	38.1	2.56¢	1.05¢	$0.40	-$1.76	-59.1%	2026-10-28
Will ISM Services PMI be at least 59.0 in October? Yes	Held	17.21	12¢	3¢	$0.52	-$1.78	-75.0%	2026-11-04
Will Bijan Robinson be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season? No	Held	1	74¢	71.5¢	$0.71	-$1.78	-3.4%	2027-01-27
Will Amcha Yisrael win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	90.1	2.56¢	0.45¢	$0.41	-$1.90	-82.4%	2026-10-28
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $308,000 and $313,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	26	14.28¢	6.85¢	$1.78	-$1.93	-52.0%	2027-01-11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? No	Held	79	56¢	53.5¢	$42.27	-$1.98	-4.5%	2026-10-14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 5%-10%? Yes	Held	20	25¢	15¢	$3.00	-$2.00	-40.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	3	58¢	58¢	$1.74	-$2.07	0.0%	2026-11-03
Will Haven be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026? Yes	Held	6	49.4¢	38.55¢	$2.31	-$2.10	-22.0%	2026-11-18
Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q3 adjusted revenue be above $12.8B? No	Held	21	27¢	17¢	$3.57	-$2.10	-37.0%	2026-10-20
Will Morocco win AFCON 2027? Yes	Held	25	43¢	34.5¢	$8.63	-$2.13	-19.8%	2027-07-18
Will Las Vegas Raiders finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most special teams and defensive touchdowns? Yes	Held	21.34	12¢	1.95¢	$0.42	-$2.20	-83.8%	2027-01-27
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? No	Held	27	79.3¢	70.85¢	$19.13	-$2.28	-10.7%	2027-01-15
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1	48¢	23.5¢	$0.23	-$2.29	-51.0%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31? No	Held	20	86¢	74.5¢	$14.90	-$2.30	-13.4%	2027-01-11
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election? No	Held	22	58¢	47.5¢	$10.45	-$2.31	-18.1%	2027-06-07
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? No	Held	27	48¢	32¢	$8.64	-$2.40	-33.3%	2027-07-01
Will Maine be the closest Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	20	20.9¢	8.75¢	$1.75	-$2.43	-58.1%	2026-11-04
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	55¢	42.5¢	$8.50	-$2.50	-22.7%	2027-01-01
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Held	20	55¢	42¢	$8.40	-$2.60	-23.6%	2028-01-01
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026? No	Held	21	46¢	33.5¢	$7.04	-$2.63	-27.2%	2027-01-01
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	20	16.9¢	3.6¢	$0.72	-$2.66	-78.7%	2027-01-01
Will Maxx Crosby finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? Yes	Held	10	19¢	4.5¢	$0.45	-$2.85	-76.3%	2027-01-28
Will John R. "Buster" Brown win the 2026 Collin County Judge election? No	Held	0.53	89¢	70.5¢	$0.37	-$2.89	-20.8%	2026-11-04
Will Eminem be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.7¢	$0.55	-$3.00	-84.6%	2027-02-01
Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $3.0B? Yes	Held	24	20¢	7.5¢	$1.80	-$3.00	-62.5%	2026-10-13
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026? Yes	Held	36	34¢	25.5¢	$9.18	-$3.06	-25.0%	2027-01-01
Will Bruno Mars be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.6¢	$0.47	-$3.08	-86.8%	2027-02-01
Will Ed Sheeran be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.6¢	$0.47	-$3.08	-86.8%	2027-01-01
Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.55¢	$0.43	-$3.12	-87.9%	2027-02-01
Will Jacksonville Jaguars finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards? Yes	Held	21	16.4¢	1.25¢	$0.26	-$3.18	-92.4%	2027-01-12
Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election? Yes	Held	22	25¢	10.5¢	$2.31	-$3.19	-58.0%	2027-06-07
Will Justin Bieber be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.45¢	$0.35	-$3.19	-90.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-10 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	23	80¢	66¢	$15.18	-$3.22	-17.5%	2026-11-04
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	78	4.54¢	0.4¢	$0.31	-$3.23	-91.2%	2027-02-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000? Yes	Held	1.41	16¢	27¢	$0.38	-$3.25	+68.8%	2026-11-04
Will Zukan Helez be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Yes	Held	38	10.4¢	1.7¢	$0.65	-$3.31	-83.7%	2028-08-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2.25	43.2¢	46.8¢	$1.05	-$3.40	+8.3%	2026-11-01
Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award? Yes	Held	20	23.9¢	6.25¢	$1.25	-$3.53	-73.8%	2027-07-01
Will Justin Allgaier win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship? Yes	Held	36	34¢	25.5¢	$9.18	-$3.56	-25.0%	2026-11-07
Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? Yes	Held	31	32¢	20.5¢	$6.36	-$3.56	-35.9%	2026-11-04
Will Czechia host the 2027 UEFA Nations League Finals? Yes	Held	20	22.9¢	4.85¢	$0.97	-$3.61	-78.8%	2027-06-10
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September? Yes	Held	21	38¢	20.5¢	$4.30	-$3.67	-46.1%	2026-11-03
Will Manchester City's 115 charges verdict be overturned by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	23	31¢	15¢	$3.45	-$3.68	-51.6%	2027-07-01
Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? Yes	Held	31	20¢	8¢	$2.48	-$3.72	-60.0%	2027-01-01
Will edgeX dip to $0.30 before 2027? No	Held	23	46¢	30¢	$6.90	-$3.80	-34.8%	2027-01-01
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September? No	Held	44	65¢	52.5¢	$23.10	-$3.83	-19.2%	2026-10-21
Will Iowa be the number 1 ranked defense in CFB Yes	Held	20	23.9¢	4.25¢	$0.85	-$3.93	-82.2%	2027-01-04
Will The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards? Yes	Held	20	21.9¢	2.25¢	$0.45	-$3.93	-89.7%	2027-01-01
Will John Barnes be the next head coach of the England national team? Yes	Held	24	17.9¢	1.05¢	$0.25	-$4.04	-94.1%	2026-12-31
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes	Held	20	57¢	36.5¢	$7.30	-$4.10	-36.0%	2027-01-01
Will Gregor Kobel (Dortmund) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season? No	Held	24	82.3¢	65¢	$15.60	-$4.15	-21.0%	2027-06-15
Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 95%+? Yes	Held	23	20¢	1.65¢	$0.38	-$4.22	-91.8%	2026-10-14
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	25	29¢	14¢	$3.50	-$4.31	-51.7%	2026-10-31
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes	Held	163	32¢	20.5¢	$33.41	-$4.37	-35.9%	2027-01-01
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026? No	Held	34	65¢	52¢	$17.68	-$4.42	-20.0%	2026-10-31
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026? Yes	Held	36	25¢	18.5¢	$6.66	-$4.50	-26.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? No	Held	30	70¢	55¢	$16.50	-$4.50	-21.4%	2026-11-30
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026? No	Held	21	40¢	18.5¢	$3.88	-$4.51	-53.8%	2026-10-31
Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	88.74	1.88¢	0.25¢	$0.22	-$4.52	-86.7%	2026-10-25
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31? No	Held	4.4218	12¢	7¢	$0.31	-$4.55	-41.7%	2026-10-31
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? No	Held	22	23¢	2.2¢	$0.48	-$4.58	-90.4%	2026-11-01
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? Yes	Held	3	55.99¢	53¢	$1.59	-$4.67	-5.4%	2026-10-15
Will Justice Haynes be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader? Yes	Held	20	24.8¢	1.2¢	$0.24	-$4.72	-95.2%	2027-01-04
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season? Yes	Held	23	53¢	32¢	$7.36	-$4.83	-39.6%	2027-06-15
Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat? Yes	Held	251	5¢	3.05¢	$7.66	-$4.89	-39.0%	2026-11-04
Will Panathinaikos finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes	Held	23	24.9¢	3.25¢	$0.75	-$4.98	-86.9%	2027-06-16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-03 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Held	27	23¢	4.5¢	$1.22	-$5.00	-80.4%	2026-11-04
Will Darian Mensah be the 2026 D1 Passing Yards Leader? Yes	Held	27	21.9¢	3.35¢	$0.90	-$5.01	-84.7%	2027-01-04
Will Cameron Dickey be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader? Yes	Held	23	22.9¢	1.05¢	$0.24	-$5.03	-95.4%	2027-01-04
Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? Yes	Held	25	21.4¢	1.25¢	$0.31	-$5.04	-94.2%	2027-01-27
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October? No	Held	24	61¢	40¢	$9.60	-$5.04	-34.4%	2026-11-01
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? No	Held	44	62¢	50.5¢	$22.22	-$5.06	-18.5%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? Yes	Held	29	39¢	21.5¢	$6.24	-$5.08	-44.9%	2027-04-01
Will Baba Wali win the 2027 Yobe State gubernatorial election? No	Held	5.54	21¢	13.5¢	$0.75	-$5.14	-35.7%	2027-02-07
Will Jim Lee win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election? Yes	Held	58	24¢	9¢	$5.22	-$5.16	-62.5%	2026-10-27
Will South Florida Bulls Win the 2026 American Conference? Yes	Held	26	24¢	4¢	$1.04	-$5.20	-83.3%	2026-12-20
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? Yes	Held	24	48¢	34.5¢	$8.28	-$5.28	-28.1%	2027-01-01
Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m? No	Held	23	59¢	36¢	$8.28	-$5.29	-39.0%	2026-10-18
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be less than 4,500,000? Yes	Held	30	19¢	1.25¢	$0.38	-$5.33	-93.4%	2026-11-04
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30? Yes	Held	29	71¢	52.5¢	$15.22	-$5.37	-26.1%	2027-07-01
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	35	61¢	45.5¢	$15.93	-$5.42	-25.4%	2026-12-01
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	18	81¢	63.5¢	$11.43	-$5.44	-21.6%	2027-04-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? No	Held	41.2	51.32¢	39.5¢	$16.27	-$5.48	-23.0%	2026-12-31
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No	Held	23	80¢	63.5¢	$14.61	-$5.55	-20.6%	2026-11-08
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.05B? Yes	Held	21	80¢	53.5¢	$11.23	-$5.57	-33.1%	2026-10-13
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000? No	Held	31	77¢	65.35¢	$20.26	-$5.77	-15.1%	2026-11-04
Will Marybel Villegas Canché win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? Yes	Held	64	20¢	1.05¢	$0.67	-$6.13	-94.8%	2027-06-07
Will Talya Lankri be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? Yes	Held	74	20¢	11.5¢	$8.51	-$6.29	-42.5%	2027-03-01
Will Manchester City be deducted 50 or more Premier League points? No	Held	60	81¢	70.5¢	$42.30	-$6.30	-13.0%	2027-07-01
Will Minnesota Vikings finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? No	Held	28	89.1¢	66.45¢	$18.61	-$6.34	-25.4%	2027-01-27
Will The Weeknd be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.34	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Will AGF Aarhus finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes	Held	26	25.9¢	1.45¢	$0.38	-$6.36	-94.4%	2027-06-16
Will Beyoncé be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.38	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.46	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Will Morgan Wallen be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.47	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Will Chappell Roan be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.47	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026? Yes	Held	184	2.17¢	0.15¢	$0.28	-$6.47	-93.1%	2027-02-01
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? Yes	Held	23.85	60.16¢	33¢	$7.87	-$6.48	-45.1%	2027-01-01
Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	24	55¢	28¢	$6.72	-$6.48	-49.1%	2027-10-01
Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next? Yes	Held	26	87.3¢	71.25¢	$18.52	-$6.49	-18.4%	2027-05-09
Will Mkhuleko Hlengwa be the next mayor of eThekwini? Yes	Held	30	23¢	7.5¢	$2.25	-$6.54	-67.4%	2026-11-05
Will Philadelphia Eagles finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? Yes	Held	33	23.9¢	4¢	$1.32	-$6.57	-83.3%	2027-01-27
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026? Yes	Held	40	23¢	6.5¢	$2.60	-$6.60	-71.7%	2027-01-01
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October? Yes	Held	35.7384	23.45¢	10.5¢	$3.75	-$6.75	-55.2%	2026-10-31
Will Conor McGregor fight Jorge Masvidal next? Yes	Held	21	38¢	5.35¢	$1.12	-$6.86	-85.9%	2027-07-12
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31? Yes	Held	41	92¢	78.5¢	$32.19	-$6.87	-14.7%	2026-11-01
Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	48	86¢	71.5¢	$34.32	-$6.96	-16.9%	2027-07-01
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? No	Held	27	77¢	50.5¢	$13.63	-$7.16	-34.4%	2027-01-11
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? Yes	Held	180	25¢	14¢	$25.20	-$7.17	-44.0%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? Yes	Held	58.2	6.66¢	0.75¢	$0.44	-$7.23	-88.7%	2026-10-13
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Morelos Congress election? No	Held	27	61¢	34¢	$9.18	-$7.29	-44.3%	2027-06-07
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	20	35¢	10.5¢	$2.10	-$7.50	-70.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-18 House election by 10%-15%? No	Held	20	78¢	65.5¢	$13.10	-$7.52	-16.0%	2026-11-04
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Eastern Conference? No	Held	63	53¢	42.5¢	$26.77	-$7.82	-19.8%	2026-12-12
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader? No	Held	64.29	65¢	54.5¢	$35.04	-$7.83	-16.2%	2027-01-03
Will Russell Tighe win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election? Yes	Held	228	3.7¢	0.25¢	$0.57	-$7.87	-93.2%	2026-10-27
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000? Yes	Held	14	26.6¢	3.15¢	$0.44	-$8.02	-88.2%	2026-11-04
Will Chronicle play for Team Vitality in 2027? No	Held	24	38¢	3.45¢	$0.83	-$8.29	-90.9%	2027-01-01
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	96	85.7¢	77¢	$73.92	-$8.35	-10.2%	2028-01-01
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? Yes	Held	80.05	18¢	8.5¢	$6.80	-$8.42	-52.8%	2027-07-01
Will White House post 200+ posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	56.41	35¢	15¢	$8.46	-$8.64	-57.1%	2026-10-20
Will Thulani Shongwe be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni? Yes	Held	40	22.9¢	2.95¢	$1.18	-$8.90	-87.1%	2026-11-05
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes	Held	613	30¢	28.5¢	$174.71	-$9.20	-5.0%	2029-01-01
Will Seattle Seahawks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most special teams and defensive touchdowns? Yes	Held	84	11.7¢	0.75¢	$0.63	-$9.20	-93.6%	2027-01-12
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 15, 2026? Yes	Held	26	38¢	2.5¢	$0.65	-$9.23	-93.4%	2026-10-16
Will Flamengo win the 2027 Copa Libertadores? No	Held	74	88¢	75.5¢	$55.87	-$9.25	-14.2%	2027-12-15
Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4? No	Held	37	12.2¢	1.55¢	$0.57	-$9.44	-87.3%	2026-12-02
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October? No	Held	2.02	90¢	84.5¢	$1.71	-$9.45	-6.1%	2026-11-02
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026? No	Held	54	70¢	60.5¢	$32.67	-$9.58	-13.6%	2026-12-01
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027? No	Held	22	72¢	26.5¢	$5.83	-$10.01	-63.2%	2027-01-01
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026? No	Held	56.88	28¢	15.5¢	$8.82	-$10.18	-44.6%	2026-11-01
Will Kerstin Hammar be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	89	11.8¢	0.25¢	$0.22	-$10.28	-97.9%	2026-09-14
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No	Held	4.92	49¢	37.5¢	$1.84	-$10.31	-23.5%	2027-01-27
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31? No	Held	2.9514	54¢	42.5¢	$1.25	-$10.38	-21.3%	2026-11-01
Will Sabrina Carpenter release an album in 2026? Yes	Held	100	22¢	11¢	$11.00	-$11.00	-50.0%	2027-01-02
Will 2026 rank between 10th and 12th among the highest domestic box office years? Yes	Held	2	34¢	30¢	$0.60	-$11.39	-11.8%	2027-02-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	19	22¢	3.4¢	$0.65	-$11.52	-84.5%	2026-11-04
Will Saudi Arabia win Group A at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? No	Held	20	45¢	35¢	$7.00	-$11.86	-22.2%	2027-02-06
Manchester City punishment announced by November 20? Yes	Held	72	26¢	9.5¢	$6.84	-$11.88	-63.5%	2026-11-21
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? No	Held	105	84¢	72.5¢	$76.13	-$12.07	-13.7%	2026-10-31
Will Paul Franklin (steel guitar) win Musician of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? No	Held	53.08	68¢	49.5¢	$26.27	-$13.08	-27.2%	2026-11-19
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	524.4406	2.56¢	0.05¢	$0.26	-$13.18	-98.0%	2026-10-28
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	524.4406	2.56¢	0.05¢	$0.26	-$13.18	-98.0%	2026-10-28
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	524.4406	2.56¢	0.05¢	$0.26	-$13.18	-98.0%	2026-10-28
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? Yes	Held	83	61¢	45.5¢	$37.77	-$13.30	-25.4%	2028-01-01
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes	Held	31	81¢	38¢	$11.78	-$13.33	-53.1%	2027-06-30
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31? Yes	Held	87	53¢	38¢	$33.06	-$13.47	-28.3%	2027-01-01
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 17.5%+? Yes	Held	73.65	20¢	0.9¢	$0.66	-$14.07	-95.5%	2026-10-20
Will Alix Earle attend an F1 race in 2026? No	Held	14	75¢	27.5¢	$3.85	-$14.15	-63.3%	2027-01-01
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? Yes	Held	24.1	32¢	9.5¢	$2.29	-$14.52	-70.3%	2026-12-31
Will the season series between the Broncos and Chargers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes	Held	43	58¢	23.5¢	$10.11	-$14.84	-59.5%	2027-01-27
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Held	43	75¢	63.5¢	$27.30	-$15.03	-15.3%	2026-12-01
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%? Yes	Held	0.9	61.77¢	61¢	$0.55	-$15.16	-1.2%	2026-10-13
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be between 1,000,000 and 1,100,000? Yes	Held	77	21¢	1.3¢	$1.00	-$15.17	-93.8%	2026-11-04
Will Manchester City be deducted 30-49 Premier League points? Yes	Held	129	28.07¢	16.25¢	$20.96	-$15.25	-42.1%	2027-07-01
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,184.9	1.35¢	0.05¢	$0.59	-$15.42	-96.3%	2027-01-02
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,184.9	1.35¢	0.05¢	$0.59	-$15.42	-96.3%	2026-12-31
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,184.9	1.35¢	0.05¢	$0.59	-$15.42	-96.3%	2026-12-31
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,184.9	1.35¢	0.05¢	$0.59	-$15.42	-96.3%	2026-12-31
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,184.9	1.35¢	0.05¢	$0.59	-$15.42	-96.3%	2026-12-31
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027? Yes	Held	70	39¢	17¢	$11.90	-$16.20	-56.4%	2026-12-31
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania? No	Held	65	85.9¢	60.7¢	$39.45	-$16.38	-29.3%	2028-01-01
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? No	Held	16	73¢	65.5¢	$10.48	-$16.64	-10.3%	2026-10-28
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October? No	Held	20	62¢	47.5¢	$9.50	-$16.99	-23.4%	2026-10-23
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	519	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.26	-$17.33	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	575.3	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.29	-$17.36	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	605.4	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.30	-$17.37	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	619	2.85¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$17.38	-98.2%	2026-12-01
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? No	Held	2.5	60¢	67¢	$1.68	-$17.38	+11.7%	2026-10-16
Will the Republican Party win the TX-14 House seat? No	Held	25	7¢	3¢	$0.75	-$17.43	-57.1%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? No	Held	25	72¢	4.7¢	$1.18	-$18.13	-93.5%	2026-10-13
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027? No	Held	104	73¢	55.5¢	$57.72	-$18.20	-24.0%	2027-07-01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No	Held	0.7978	77¢	77.5¢	$0.62	-$18.38	+0.6%	2026-12-01
Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader? Yes	Held	41	73.6¢	28.65¢	$11.75	-$18.43	-61.1%	2027-01-04
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? No	Held	51	55¢	41.5¢	$21.16	-$18.61	-24.5%	2026-11-01
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth <10%? Yes	Held	93.65	23.84¢	3.65¢	$3.42	-$18.91	-84.7%	2026-10-20
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September? Yes	Held	45.83	8.33¢	1.8¢	$0.82	-$19.50	-78.4%	2026-10-15
Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Music Video of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? Yes	Held	13.6962	65¢	48.5¢	$6.64	-$19.58	-25.4%	2026-11-19
Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026? Yes	Held	83.81	27¢	1.4¢	$1.17	-$20.49	-94.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat? Yes	Held	20	7¢	6.5¢	$1.30	-$20.59	-7.1%	2026-11-04
Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.08	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.08	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	469.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.23	-$21.10	-98.8%	2026-10-05
Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	491.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$21.11	-98.9%	2026-10-05
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	491.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$21.11	-98.9%	2026-10-05
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	491.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$21.11	-98.9%	2026-10-05
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes	Held	491.29	4.34¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$21.11	-98.9%	2026-10-05
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? No	Held	70.51	41¢	22.5¢	$15.86	-$22.48	-45.1%	2027-04-01
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in September? Yes	Held	84.98	8.33¢	0.75¢	$0.64	-$22.61	-91.0%	2026-10-15
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in September? Yes	Held	227.83	8.33¢	0.55¢	$1.25	-$22.94	-93.4%	2026-10-15
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	843.47	2.77¢	0.05¢	$0.42	-$23.01	-98.2%	2027-02-01
Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September? Yes	Held	227.83	8.33¢	0.4¢	$0.91	-$23.28	-95.2%	2026-10-15
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? No	Held	106	41¢	21.5¢	$22.79	-$23.51	-47.6%	2027-01-01
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in September? Yes	Held	227.83	8.33¢	0.25¢	$0.57	-$23.81	-97.0%	2026-10-15
Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in September? Yes	Held	227.83	8.33¢	0.25¢	$0.57	-$23.83	-97.0%	2026-10-15
Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September? Yes	Held	227.83	8.33¢	0.25¢	$0.57	-$23.83	-97.0%	2026-10-15
Will annual inflation be 3.1% in September? Yes	Held	281.83	8.33¢	0.15¢	$0.42	-$24.06	-98.2%	2026-10-15
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No	Held	67	54¢	18¢	$12.06	-$24.12	-66.7%	2026-10-31
Will Barcelona host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	110.1	20¢	0.4¢	$0.44	-$24.46	-98.0%	—
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? No	Held	55	78¢	33.5¢	$18.43	-$24.48	-57.1%	2026-10-18
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027? Yes	Held	72	79¢	45¢	$32.40	-$24.48	-43.0%	2027-01-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	2	49¢	51.5¢	$1.03	-$25.13	+5.1%	2026-12-01
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	57.8276	63¢	46.5¢	$26.89	-$25.71	-26.2%	2026-11-26
Manchester City punishment announced by December 18? Yes	Held	180.0076	41¢	27.5¢	$49.50	-$26.38	-32.9%	2026-12-19
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	152	74¢	56.5¢	$85.88	-$27.30	-23.6%	2028-01-01
Will Liquipedia Win the 2026 Esports Supporting Service of the Year Award? No	Held	3.4	67.8¢	53.5¢	$1.82	-$27.37	-21.1%	2026-12-15
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	155.8	20¢	1¢	$1.56	-$29.60	-95.0%	2026-11-04
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027? No	Held	1.16	65¢	70¢	$0.81	-$29.84	+7.7%	2027-03-01
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? No	Held	85	71¢	44.5¢	$37.83	-$31.36	-37.3%	2026-12-01
Will Summit be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026? No	Held	42	62¢	1.75¢	$0.73	-$32.83	-97.2%	2026-11-18
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	1.7	83¢	78¢	$1.33	-$36.09	-6.0%	2026-10-31
Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? No	Held	0.61	58¢	44.5¢	$0.27	-$36.11	-23.3%	2026-12-31
Will Manel Kape fight Joshua Van next? No	Held	24.24	62¢	6.5¢	$1.58	-$38.07	-89.5%	2027-06-21
Will Dune: Messiah have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	767.09	4.76¢	0.05¢	$0.38	-$38.13	-98.9%	2027-01-01
Will Toy Story 5 have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	809.59	4.76¢	0.05¢	$0.40	-$38.15	-99.0%	2027-02-01
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	809.59	4.76¢	0.05¢	$0.40	-$38.15	-99.0%	2027-01-01
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? No	Held	187	55¢	32.65¢	$61.06	-$38.33	-40.6%	2027-01-22
Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election? Yes	Held	244	33¢	17¢	$41.48	-$39.04	-48.5%	2026-10-25
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	4.65	88¢	84.5¢	$3.93	-$40.76	-4.0%	2026-12-01
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	569.8585	3.84¢	0.15¢	$0.85	-$41.24	-96.1%	2026-12-31
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	569.8585	3.84¢	0.15¢	$0.85	-$41.31	-96.1%	2026-12-31
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes	Held	156.0121	67¢	57¢	$88.93	-$41.60	-14.9%	2027-01-01
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	569.8585	3.84¢	0.05¢	$0.28	-$41.88	-98.7%	2026-12-31
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Women's Champions League? No	Held	16.58	61.1¢	37.15¢	$6.16	-$43.46	-39.2%	2027-05-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes	Held	86	28¢	26.5¢	$22.79	-$44.01	-5.4%	—
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No	Held	151.0032	40.69¢	39.05¢	$58.97	-$45.03	-4.1%	2028-01-01
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? Hike 25 bps	Held	9	73¢	12.5¢	$1.13	-$45.70	-82.9%	2026-10-27
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	20	92¢	68.5¢	$13.70	-$47.49	-25.5%	2026-11-01
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? No	Held	21.9	60¢	38.5¢	$8.43	-$48.89	-35.8%	2027-01-01
KOSPI all-time high before 2028? Yes	Held	75.5741	67¢	42.5¢	$32.12	-$51.49	-36.6%	2028-01-01
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? No	Held	62.0094	31.89¢	19.55¢	$12.12	-$58.04	-38.7%	2027-04-01
Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.25¢	$1.64	-$59.76	-94.0%	2027-06-15
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? Yes	Held	14	83¢	81¢	$11.34	-$60.33	-2.4%	2026-10-24
Will Valencia win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Sevilla win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Deportivo La Coruña win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Real Sociedad win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Racing Santander win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Getafe win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.15¢	$2.31	-$61.74	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Levante win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Espanyol win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Osasuna win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Alavés win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will Celta Vigo win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	656	4.16¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$62.20	-96.4%	2027-06-15
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31? Yes	Held	122	71¢	20¢	$24.40	-$62.22	-71.8%	2026-11-01
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	1,330.59	2.5¢	0.05¢	$0.67	-$62.95	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.05¢	$0.77	-$63.27	-98.8%	2027-06-15
Will Málaga win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.05¢	$0.77	-$63.27	-98.8%	2027-06-15
Will Elche win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	1,537	4.16¢	0.05¢	$0.77	-$63.27	-98.8%	2027-06-15
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	1,863.33	2.5¢	0.05¢	$0.93	-$64.25	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	1,970.48	2.5¢	0.05¢	$0.99	-$64.33	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,547.93	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.27	-$65.04	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,547.93	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.27	-$65.15	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,547.93	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.27	-$65.15	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,547.93	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.27	-$65.15	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,547.93	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.27	-$65.15	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,661.39	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.33	-$65.20	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	2,661.39	2.5¢	0.05¢	$1.33	-$65.20	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	1,827.5789	3.7¢	0.05¢	$0.91	-$66.77	-98.7%	2027-02-01
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Held	2.71	61¢	58¢	$1.57	-$68.43	-4.9%	2027-01-01
Will MVK Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	1,402.97	5¢	0.05¢	$0.70	-$69.45	-99.0%	2026-11-29
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? No	Held	70	86¢	76.5¢	$53.55	-$72.20	-11.0%	2026-11-01
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	20	92¢	68.5¢	$13.70	-$75.04	-25.5%	2026-11-05
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes	Held	366.004	6.66¢	0.3¢	$1.10	-$76.37	-95.5%	2027-01-01
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	170.0021	1.72¢	0.15¢	$0.26	-$80.80	-91.3%	2028-04-01
Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,044.59	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.52	-$81.78	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	3,083.78	2.7¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$81.80	-98.2%	2026-10-25
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	3,566.0021	1.72¢	0.05¢	$1.78	-$82.98	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	4,457.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.23	-$83.62	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	4,811.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.41	-$83.80	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	4,811.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.41	-$83.80	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	4,870.3321	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.44	-$83.83	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	5,011.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.51	-$83.90	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	5,011.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.51	-$83.90	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	5,011.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.51	-$83.90	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	5,011.5621	1.72¢	0.05¢	$2.51	-$83.90	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	148.5812	39.99¢	26¢	$38.63	-$85.99	-35.0%	2027-01-01
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes	Held	362.43	81¢	62.5¢	$226.52	-$96.37	-22.8%	2028-01-01
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No	Held	2.8917	90.99¢	89.5¢	$2.59	-$98.16	-1.6%	2026-12-09
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No	Held	11	75¢	60.5¢	$6.66	-$100.48	-19.3%	2027-01-01
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 180m and 190m by October 31? Yes	Held	505	14.28¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$103.24	-99.6%	2026-10-31
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 190m and 200m by October 31? Yes	Held	726	14.28¢	0.05¢	$0.36	-$103.35	-99.6%	2026-10-31
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes	Held	2,472.4616	3.33¢	0.05¢	$1.24	-$108.44	-98.5%	2026-11-29
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	158.8064	3.12¢	0.8¢	$1.27	-$113.70	-74.4%	2026-10-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes	Held	21	59¢	28.25¢	$5.93	-$119.59	-52.1%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	969.94	3.57¢	0.05¢	$0.48	-$123.25	-98.6%	2027-01-01
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	515	3.57¢	0.05¢	$0.26	-$123.78	-98.6%	2027-01-01
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	620.37	3.57¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$125.45	-98.6%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No	Held	0.43	78¢	76.5¢	$0.33	-$130.83	-1.9%	2028-01-01
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? Yes	Held	54.0067	77.6¢	42.3¢	$22.84	-$132.65	-45.5%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	73.92	14.28¢	1.8¢	$1.33	-$137.92	-87.4%	2028-01-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	164	3.12¢	0.45¢	$0.74	-$175.57	-85.6%	2026-11-01
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	4,430.56	3.44¢	0.05¢	$2.22	-$176.49	-98.5%	2026-11-04
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	4,879.46	3.44¢	0.05¢	$2.44	-$176.72	-98.5%	2026-11-04
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	5,051.12	3.44¢	0.05¢	$2.53	-$176.80	-98.5%	2026-11-04
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	5,051.12	3.44¢	0.05¢	$2.53	-$176.80	-98.5%	2026-11-04
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	5,205.12	3.44¢	0.05¢	$2.60	-$176.88	-98.5%	2026-11-04
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	937	3.12¢	0.15¢	$1.41	-$183.90	-95.2%	2026-10-31
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	999.47	3.12¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$190.80	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	625	3.12¢	0.1¢	$0.63	-$190.92	-96.8%	2026-10-31
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	999.47	3.12¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$192.71	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,137.47	3.12¢	0.05¢	$0.57	-$192.78	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	4,497.18	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.25	-$193.12	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	4,777.58	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.39	-$193.70	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	5,863.25	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.93	-$194.85	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	5,317.58	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.66	-$194.87	-98.4%	2026-10-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	0.93	68¢	65.5¢	$0.61	-$194.94	-3.7%	2026-12-31
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	5,773.58	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.89	-$195.09	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	5,939.36	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.97	-$195.18	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	5,989.52	3.12¢	0.05¢	$2.99	-$195.20	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6,059.65	3.12¢	0.05¢	$3.03	-$195.23	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6,340.15	3.12¢	0.05¢	$3.17	-$195.38	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6,349.15	3.12¢	0.05¢	$3.17	-$195.38	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6,349.15	3.12¢	0.05¢	$3.17	-$195.38	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	6,354.15	3.12¢	0.05¢	$3.18	-$195.38	-98.4%	2026-10-31
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	250.73	7.69¢	0.1¢	$0.25	-$205.30	-98.7%	2026-11-04
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? Yes	Held	141.005	81¢	62.5¢	$88.13	-$205.46	-22.8%	2026-10-25
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	721.0622	14.28¢	0.15¢	$1.08	-$240.44	-99.0%	2027-01-01
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	9,933.8277	1.12¢	0.15¢	$14.90	-$254.07	-86.6%	2027-01-01
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	1,237.29	20¢	0.05¢	$0.62	-$255.25	-99.8%	2026-11-05
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	1,201	20¢	0.05¢	$0.60	-$255.29	-99.8%	2026-11-05
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? No	Held	330	53¢	48.5¢	$160.05	-$257.45	-8.5%	—
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	8,673.0777	1.12¢	0.05¢	$4.34	-$272.58	-95.5%	2027-01-01
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	13,314.4577	1.12¢	0.05¢	$6.66	-$277.24	-95.5%	2027-01-01
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	20,281.0477	1.12¢	0.05¢	$10.14	-$280.60	-95.5%	2026-10-31
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	24,111.9077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$12.06	-$282.50	-95.5%	2027-01-01
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	26,418.3077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$13.21	-$283.57	-95.5%	2027-01-01
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	26,418.3077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$13.21	-$283.57	-95.5%	2026-10-31
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	26,418.3077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$13.21	-$283.57	-95.5%	2026-10-31
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	26,418.3077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$13.21	-$283.57	-95.5%	2026-10-31
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	26,418.3077	1.12¢	0.05¢	$13.21	-$283.57	-95.5%	2026-10-31
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	295.0198	2.77¢	0.15¢	$0.44	-$288.32	-94.6%	2026-09-14
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	1,985.0105	61.99¢	61.5¢	$1.2K	-$309.92	-0.8%	2026-11-04
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	488.9965	2.77¢	0.05¢	$0.24	-$313.09	-98.2%	2026-09-14
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	873.0165	2.77¢	0.05¢	$0.44	-$313.28	-98.2%	2026-09-14
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	6,389.5065	2.77¢	0.05¢	$3.19	-$326.88	-98.2%	2026-09-14
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	9,324.3565	2.77¢	0.05¢	$4.66	-$328.34	-98.2%	2026-09-14
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	10,181.6065	2.77¢	0.05¢	$5.09	-$328.77	-98.2%	2026-09-14
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? Yes	Held	547.014	11.11¢	1.95¢	$10.67	-$437.37	-82.4%	2026-10-26
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,145	73¢	71.5¢	$818.67	-$471.26	-2.1%	2026-11-04
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Yes	Held	547.0009	11.11¢	0.55¢	$3.01	-$475.88	-95.0%	2026-10-26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? Yes	Held	478	11.11¢	0.4¢	$1.91	-$493.45	-96.4%	2026-10-26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? Yes	Held	811.92	11.11¢	0.15¢	$1.22	-$496.77	-98.7%	2026-10-26
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Held	227	79¢	78.5¢	$178.19	-$563.05	-0.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Held	0.3729	80.34¢	81.25¢	$0.30	-$648.38	+1.1%	2026-09-14
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	12,393.068	6.39¢	0.05¢	$6.20	-$786.27	-99.2%	2027-01-01
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	4,342.898	6.46¢	0.05¢	$2.17	-$997.08	-99.2%	2027-01-01
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	15,799.008	6.39¢	0.05¢	$7.90	-$1.0K	-99.2%	2027-01-01
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	15,799.008	6.39¢	0.05¢	$7.90	-$1.0K	-99.2%	2027-01-01
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	15,799.008	6.39¢	0.05¢	$7.90	-$1.0K	-99.2%	2027-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,544	97.1¢	97.05¢	$1.5K	-$1.1K	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? Yes	Held	4,121.2	25¢	0.3¢	$12.36	-$1.3K	-98.8%	2028-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Held	276.7846	90.99¢	88.5¢	$244.95	-$2.8K	-2.7%	2026-12-31

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