Wallet positions

0xed10…d2e5

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$21.5K

Win rate

78.3%

Realized edge

-5.2 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -5.2 pp across 69 resolved positions, 95% CI [-14.0, +2.4], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

105 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-26 06:44:04 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Held	2,000,000	50¢	79.9¢	$1.60M	$598.0K	+59.8%	2028-11-08
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Held	199,111.4367	88.48¢	97.65¢	$194.4K	$19.8K	+10.4%	2027-01-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Held	362,963.4841	92.67¢	94.85¢	$344.3K	$12.8K	+2.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	649,999.9133	94¢	95.5¢	$620.7K	$9.7K	+1.6%	2026-10-29
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No	Held	124,132.4791	91.46¢	97.8¢	$121.4K	$7.9K	+6.9%	2027-01-01
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Held	17,100.0643	56.42¢	93.5¢	$16.0K	$6.5K	+65.7%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	854,058.99	93.98¢	94.5¢	$807.1K	$4.4K	+0.5%	2026-10-29
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	42,124.5797	90.64¢	97.5¢	$41.1K	$2.9K	+7.6%	2027-01-01
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? No	Held	23,266.0103	90.01¢	97.85¢	$22.8K	$2.8K	+8.7%	2027-01-01
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes	Held	263,457.9524	97¢	98.05¢	$258.3K	$2.8K	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? No	Held	289,300.4339	98.85¢	99.4¢	$287.6K	$1.6K	+0.6%	2026-11-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No	Held	389,345.4121	95.55¢	95.75¢	$372.8K	$1.3K	+0.2%	2027-01-01
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No	Held	13,097.8679	90.84¢	98.05¢	$12.8K	$1.3K	+7.9%	2027-01-01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No	Held	14,128.9437	92.51¢	95.85¢	$13.5K	$1.2K	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No	Held	256,271.7582	96.84¢	97.15¢	$249.0K	$778.67	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No	Held	24,999.9883	93.59¢	96.55¢	$24.1K	$737.55	+3.2%	2026-11-04
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No	Held	19,683.0204	87.84¢	91.5¢	$18.0K	$720.05	+4.2%	2027-01-01
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Held	34,877.6912	87.69¢	89.5¢	$31.2K	$628.10	+2.1%	2027-01-04
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No	Held	29,133.38	94.56¢	96.6¢	$28.1K	$592.64	+2.2%	2027-01-01
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Held	4,887.0888	92.14¢	95.5¢	$4.7K	$518.13	+3.6%	2027-01-01
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? No	Held	5,672.3859	85.65¢	94.2¢	$5.3K	$490.47	+10.0%	2027-01-01
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No	Held	9,000.1487	91.66¢	97.05¢	$8.7K	$484.54	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Held	44,663.62	96.99¢	98.05¢	$43.8K	$471.60	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	150,000	99.56¢	99.85¢	$149.8K	$425.05	+0.3%	2026-10-29
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	77,039.3951	96.3¢	96.85¢	$74.6K	$417.74	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No	Held	8,410.0833	91.88¢	96.8¢	$8.1K	$413.52	+5.4%	2027-01-01
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No	Held	9,090	93.52¢	94.95¢	$8.6K	$408.52	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No	Held	4,016.0375	85.54¢	95.6¢	$3.8K	$403.91	+11.8%	2027-01-05
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5,000.0023	84.6¢	90¢	$4.5K	$350.11	+6.4%	2027-01-01
GTA VI released by October 31? No	Held	21,476	98.32¢	99.95¢	$21.5K	$348.52	+1.7%	2026-11-01
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027? No	Held	6,500.74	93.15¢	97.75¢	$6.4K	$298.80	+4.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	14,999.9854	93.49¢	95.4¢	$14.3K	$285.07	+2.0%	2026-11-04
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No	Held	14,161.9447	94.43¢	96.3¢	$13.6K	$263.48	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No	Held	1,224.51	74.84¢	95.65¢	$1.2K	$254.71	+27.8%	2027-01-05
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Held	3,837.7492	88.49¢	94.55¢	$3.6K	$232.53	+6.8%	2027-01-01
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No	Held	31,352.05	98.62¢	99.35¢	$31.1K	$227.21	+0.7%	2026-11-01
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No	Held	3,793.1	91.49¢	97.15¢	$3.7K	$214.66	+6.2%	2027-01-01
Waymo IPO before 2027? No	Held	1,070.9368	80.21¢	98.05¢	$1.1K	$190.96	+22.2%	2027-01-01
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No	Held	3,165.079	92.41¢	96.5¢	$3.1K	$186.94	+4.4%	2027-01-01
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,799.7767	87.77¢	92¢	$2.6K	$176.96	+4.8%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? No	Held	5,596.43	91.99¢	95.15¢	$5.3K	$176.35	+3.4%	2027-01-01
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Held	999.9975	79.41¢	96.3¢	$963.00	$168.89	+21.3%	2027-01-01
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,500	90.32¢	96.4¢	$2.4K	$151.94	+6.7%	2027-01-01
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No	Held	2,046.884	86.57¢	93.85¢	$1.9K	$148.87	+8.4%	2027-01-01
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? No	Held	5,986.4333	97.16¢	99.4¢	$6.0K	$133.78	+2.3%	2026-11-01
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Held	37,500	96.6¢	96.95¢	$36.4K	$131.25	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No	Held	1,001.607	79.84¢	92.65¢	$927.99	$128.21	+16.0%	2027-01-05
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,977.68	90.1¢	95.85¢	$1.9K	$113.59	+6.4%	2027-01-01
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5,630.9366	94.63¢	96.6¢	$5.4K	$110.78	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No	Held	56,275.025	99.5¢	99.7¢	$56.1K	$109.75	+0.2%	2026-11-01
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	6,554.8308	89.15¢	90.7¢	$5.9K	$100.96	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,809.2737	91.83¢	96.9¢	$1.8K	$91.56	+5.5%	2027-01-01
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No	Held	2,311.11	93.22¢	97¢	$2.2K	$87.18	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No	Held	2,504.61	92.99¢	96.2¢	$2.4K	$80.16	+3.4%	2027-01-05
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3,028.3645	92.94¢	95.5¢	$2.9K	$77.43	+2.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	13,973.7918	95.11¢	95.65¢	$13.4K	$74.98	+0.6%	2026-11-04
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? No	Held	1,970.6	94.02¢	97.25¢	$1.9K	$71.24	+3.4%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,000	92.49¢	96.05¢	$1.9K	$71.01	+3.8%	2027-01-01
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	3,500	93.89¢	95.75¢	$3.4K	$64.97	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	828.3	85.4¢	93¢	$770.32	$62.89	+8.9%	2027-01-01
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No	Held	1,649.69	95.05¢	98.65¢	$1.6K	$59.76	+3.8%	2027-01-01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No	Held	2,000	94¢	96.7¢	$1.9K	$54.00	+2.9%	2027-01-01
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,000	90¢	94.7¢	$947.00	$47.00	+5.2%	2027-01-01
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No	Held	1,874.85	94.73¢	97.1¢	$1.8K	$44.38	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? No	Held	475.99	81.69¢	89.5¢	$426.01	$37.16	+9.6%	2027-01-01
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,518.13	95.99¢	98.4¢	$1.5K	$36.44	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No	Held	1,588.5184	94.11¢	95.9¢	$1.5K	$28.36	+1.9%	2027-01-01
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? No	Held	173.341	81.9¢	98.15¢	$170.13	$28.16	+19.8%	2027-01-01
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? No	Held	754.1342	93.78¢	97.45¢	$734.90	$27.63	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No	Held	637.995	93.12¢	96.8¢	$617.58	$23.46	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump resign before 2027? No	Held	1,837.4	96.8¢	98¢	$1.8K	$22.05	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,023.68	96.68¢	98.4¢	$1.0K	$17.59	+1.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No	Held	2,503.29	94.99¢	95.55¢	$2.4K	$13.78	+0.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	4,000	94.56¢	94.9¢	$3.8K	$13.54	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	51,029.9603	96.72¢	96.75¢	$49.4K	$13.51	+0.0%	2026-11-04
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? No	Held	307.22	89.99¢	94.35¢	$289.86	$13.36	+4.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	24,127.3	99.6¢	99.65¢	$24.0K	$12.06	+0.1%	2026-10-29
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? No	Held	479.69	94.99¢	97.05¢	$465.54	$9.83	+2.2%	2027-01-01
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? No	Held	689.3585	95.73¢	97.1¢	$669.37	$9.38	+1.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,110.8823	97.08¢	97.9¢	$1.1K	$9.06	+0.8%	2026-11-04
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No	Held	177.96	91.5¢	96.45¢	$171.64	$8.81	+5.4%	2027-01-01
Obama arrested before 2027? No	Held	202.7935	93¢	96.5¢	$195.70	$7.10	+3.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	2,141.26	94¢	94.3¢	$2.0K	$6.42	+0.3%	2026-11-04
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? No	Held	91.39	78.9¢	85.5¢	$78.14	$6.03	+8.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No	Held	1,413.07	94¢	94.4¢	$1.3K	$5.65	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30? No	Held	436.42	95.76¢	96.9¢	$422.89	$4.97	+1.2%	2026-12-01
Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	449.45	97.88¢	98.9¢	$444.51	$4.55	+1.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	98¢	98.35¢	$983.50	$3.50	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? No	Held	149.8857	96.5¢	98.3¢	$147.34	$2.70	+1.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027? No	Held	39.35	92¢	97.4¢	$38.33	$2.12	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027? No	Held	176.19	93.99¢	95¢	$167.38	$1.76	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	100	97¢	97.75¢	$97.75	$0.75	+0.8%	2026-11-04
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Held	17.78	93¢	95.5¢	$16.98	$0.44	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	20	94¢	95.95¢	$19.19	$0.39	+2.1%	2026-11-04
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Held	18.75	96¢	97.05¢	$18.20	$0.20	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election? No	Held	23.02	90¢	90.45¢	$20.82	$0.10	+0.5%	2026-11-03
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? No	Held	1,865.58	87.55¢	86.5¢	$1.6K	-$19.70	-1.2%	2027-01-02
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? No	Held	2,000	92.12¢	90.2¢	$1.8K	-$38.52	-2.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election? Yes	Held	7,484.71	91.59¢	90.5¢	$6.8K	-$81.83	-1.2%	2026-11-03
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,390.1399	59¢	46.5¢	$646.41	-$173.79	-21.2%	2028-01-01
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	2,476.7738	43.75¢	20¢	$495.35	-$588.25	-54.3%	2027-07-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	24,518.1305	88.95¢	76.5¢	$18.8K	-$610.85	-14.0%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes	Held	3,123.1	60.03¢	38.5¢	$1.2K	-$672.60	-35.9%	2028-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Held	14,999.9821	49.49¢	11.5¢	$1.7K	-$5.7K	-76.8%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	2,000,000	50¢	20.1¢	$402.0K	-$598.0K	-59.8%	2028-11-08

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