Wallet ledger

0xe8c4…395d

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

225

Realized PnL

$13.4K

Win rate

60%

Realized edge

+0.050

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.050 across 225 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.01, +0.10]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (292 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No	Open	2,971	49¢	$1.4K	+98%	2026-09-01
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30? No	Open	1,867	49¢	$940	+104%	2026-08-30
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? Yes	Open	3,931	49¢	$590	+31%	2026-08-31
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? No	Open	1,234	59¢	$476	+65%	2026-08-31
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	705	22¢	$403	+262%	2026-06-16
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? No	Open	4,211	92¢	$264	+7%	2026-09-01
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? No	Open	1,384	81¢	$253	+23%	2026-08-31
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? No	Open	597	59¢	$244	+69%	2026-08-11
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers	Open	817	47¢	$233	+61%	2026-07-12
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? Yes	Open	495	51¢	$228	+90%	2026-08-23
LoL: Dignitas vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season FlyQuest	Open	913	75¢	$228	+33%	2026-08-24
Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Yes	Open	356	42¢	$203	+136%	2026-08-18
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No	Open	1,114	81¢	$182	+20%	2026-09-01
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	597	69¢	$181	+44%	2026-08-24
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? No	Open	291	37¢	$176	+164%	2026-09-01
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m? Yes	Open	375	55¢	$163	+79%	2026-08-23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	1,542	89¢	$160	+12%	2026-09-01
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	732	77¢	$153	+27%	2026-09-01
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	598	70¢	$152	+36%	2026-08-31
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No	Open	1,054	64¢	$152	+23%	2026-09-01
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes	Open	1,105	75¢	$149	+18%	2026-08-31
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	776	16¢	$149	+120%	2026-12-31
Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	2,955	56¢	$148	+9%	2026-09-14
LoL: Dignitas vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner FlyQuest	Open	453	69¢	$140	+45%	2026-08-24
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24? Yes	Open	5,410	37¢	$135	+7%	2026-08-24
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? Yes	Open	862	82¢	$127	+18%	2026-09-02
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? No	Open	614	75¢	$120	+26%	2026-09-01
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No	Open	486	54¢	$117	+44%	2026-06-16
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	513	70¢	$116	+32%	2026-08-31
Will Maive Rute be the next President of Estonia? No	Open	1,420	91¢	$114	+9%	2026-09-02
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes	Open	951	49¢	$109	+23%	2026-08-18
LoL: Dignitas vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner FlyQuest	Open	353	70¢	$106	+43%	2026-08-24
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff? Yes	Open	1,389	86¢	$104	+9%	2026-08-25
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	251	57¢	$102	+71%	2026-08-31
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement? Yes	Open	1,395	92¢	$101	+8%	2026-09-02
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	494	57¢	$89	+32%	2026-09-13
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under	Open	204	59¢	$84	+69%	2026-08-24
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? No	Open	381	78¢	$81	+27%	2026-08-23
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? No	Open	4,985	80¢	$77	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? Yes	Open	200	33¢	$77	+117%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	633	67¢	$77	+18%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? No	Open	377	78¢	$76	+26%	2026-08-24
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No	Open	384	75¢	$76	+26%	2026-09-01
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31? No	Open	295	72¢	$75	+35%	2026-09-01
Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	643	40¢	$74	+29%	2026-09-20
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes	Open	572	82¢	$74	+16%	2026-09-01
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? No	Open	400	78¢	$73	+23%	2026-09-01
Will Russia capture Svitle by August 31? No	Open	1,187	85¢	$71	+7%	2026-09-01
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? No	Open	221	68¢	$71	+47%	2026-08-11
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	822	86¢	$70	+10%	2026-09-10
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	478	85¢	$67	+17%	2026-08-31
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	169	63¢	$62	+59%	2026-08-11
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? No	Open	831	53¢	$62	+14%	2026-09-14
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No	Open	1,706	57¢	$61	+6%	2026-09-06
Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? No	Open	225	50¢	$61	+54%	2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	1,064	94¢	$60	+6%	2026-09-01
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	175	20¢	$60	+176%	2026-08-31
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke? Linke	Open	458	66¢	$60	+20%	2026-09-20
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes	Open	149	57¢	$58	+69%	2026-08-31
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	643	69¢	$58	+13%	2026-08-31
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? Yes	Open	222	59¢	$58	+44%	2026-08-23
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? No	Open	362	79¢	$56	+20%	2026-08-26
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? No	Open	698	75¢	$56	+11%	2026-09-02
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? No	Open	347	79¢	$56	+20%	2026-08-28
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees	Open	1,590	54¢	$56	+6%	2026-09-29
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	155	52¢	$55	+68%	2026-08-31
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	820	84¢	$55	+8%	2026-09-20
Will Tim Wilkins be the FL-11 Republican nominee? No	Open	794	93¢	$52	+7%	2026-08-18
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Oleksandra Oliynykova	Open	3,400	49¢	$51	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026? No	Open	331	79¢	$48	+18%	2026-08-27
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026? No	Open	370	80¢	$47	+16%	2026-08-25
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff? Yes	Open	624	84¢	$45	+9%	2026-08-25
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? No	Open	918	95¢	$45	+5%	2026-08-11
Will Elin Norén be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Dalarna? Yes	Open	952	80¢	$43	+6%	2026-09-13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? No	Open	1,696	76¢	$42	+3%	2026-09-22
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 15? No	Open	300	66¢	$42	+21%	2026-09-15
Will Trump say "Antifa" in August? No	Open	345	80¢	$41	+15%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? No	Open	339	82¢	$41	+15%	2026-08-29
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31? Yes	Open	552	16¢	$40	+47%	2026-08-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,611	29¢	$40	+9%	2026-09-16
Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? No	Open	860	76¢	$39	+6%	2026-09-03
Will Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series? No	Open	701	67¢	$39	+8%	2026-09-14
Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings? Yes	Open	351	85¢	$37	+12%	2026-08-26
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? Yes	Open	1,462	35¢	$37	+7%	2026-09-14
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Open	380	84¢	$36	+11%	2026-09-13
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,424	85¢	$36	+3%	2026-09-18
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? No	Open	333	84¢	$30	+11%	2026-08-30
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? No	Open	296	90¢	$28	+11%	2026-08-22
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	676	85¢	$27	+5%	2026-08-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes	Open	1,772	88¢	$27	+2%	2026-08-31
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down? Up	Open	580	88¢	$26	+5%	2026-09-06
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	434	88¢	$23	+6%	2026-09-01
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31? No	Open	148	84¢	$23	+19%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? No	Open	321	82¢	$22	+9%	2026-09-01
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or BSW? SPD	Open	513	88¢	$21	+5%	2026-09-06
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Open	259	39¢	$21	+21%	2026-09-06
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	57	56¢	$19	+61%	2026-08-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	968	16¢	$19	+13%	2026-09-15
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Open	294	70¢	$19	+9%	2026-09-13
Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series? Yes	Open	332	81¢	$18	+7%	2026-09-14
Will Leavitt say "Border" during the next White House Press Briefing? Yes	Open	449	57¢	$18	+7%	2026-08-31
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.7%? Yes	Open	288	35¢	$18	+18%	2026-09-10
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,160	92¢	$17	+2%	2026-09-17
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	116	24¢	$17	+62%	2026-09-01
Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? Yes	Open	203	33¢	$16	+24%	2026-09-13
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No	Open	583	93¢	$16	+3%	2026-09-01
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? No	Open	287	56¢	$14	+9%	2026-09-16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No	Open	138	89¢	$14	+12%	2026-09-01
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in July? No	Open	88	73¢	$14	+22%	2026-09-01
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Play-In DN SOOPers Challengers	Open	2,481	64¢	$12	+1%	2026-08-24
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August? No	Open	1,154	68¢	$12	+1%	2026-09-01
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? Yes	Open	446	73¢	$11	+3%	2026-08-31
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	179	69¢	$11	+9%	2026-09-13
Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? No	Open	205	90¢	$9	+5%	2026-09-20
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? No	Open	1,096	52¢	$9	+2%	2026-08-28
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	372	91¢	$9	+3%	2026-09-01
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	303	19¢	$8	+13%	2026-09-13
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? No	Open	445	95¢	$8	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026? No	Open	66	77¢	$8	+15%	2026-08-31
Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	179	37¢	$7	+11%	2026-09-14
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or C? V	Open	186	48¢	$7	+7%	2026-09-13
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Volda E-Sport (BO3) - NLC Playoffs The Ruddy Sack	Open	232	88¢	$6	+3%	2026-08-25
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026? Yes	Open	163	88¢	$6	+4%	2026-08-27
Will HBO Max win the most Emmys? Yes	Open	520	72¢	$5	+1%	2026-09-14
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July? Yes	Open	78	60¢	$5	+10%	2026-08-26
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? Yes	Open	227	88¢	$4	+2%	2026-09-08
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	81	40¢	$4	+13%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	101	90¢	$4	+4%	2026-08-29
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31? No	Open	25	78¢	$3	+16%	2026-09-01
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool? Yes	Open	325	74¢	$3	+1%	2026-09-02
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	871	69¢	$3	+1%	2026-08-11
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	199	69¢	$3	+2%	2026-08-26
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	42	88¢	$3	+8%	2026-08-31
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision? Yes	Open	73	91¢	$3	+4%	2026-09-02
Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes? No	Open	62	90¢	$2	+4%	2026-09-20
Will Trump say "Smithsonian" in August? No	Open	27	81¢	$2	+10%	2026-08-31
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-08-24? Yes	Open	452	26¢	$2	+2%	2026-08-24
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? Yes	Open	77	91¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-13
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? Yes	Open	105	85¢	$2	+2%	2026-08-18
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? Yes	Open	358	47¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-13
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	305	31¢	$2	+2%	2026-09-12
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	290	70¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by August 31? No	Open	72	90¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	256	75¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	245	16¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-20
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? Yes	Open	200	79¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%? Under	Open	21	55¢	$1	+7%	2026-09-20
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? Yes	Open	21	61¢	$1	+5%	2026-08-28
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in July? No	Open	5	68¢	$1	+18%	2026-09-01
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	115	29¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-13
Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	20	86¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-20
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-08-27? Yes	Open	81	45¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-27
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? Under	Open	21	71¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-20
Will Russia enter Moskovka by August 31? No	Open	19	92¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-01
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? Yes	Open	23	25¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-05
Will Netflix win the most Emmys? No	Open	42	82¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-14
Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? Yes	Open	60	85¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	10	55¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-14
Will "The Pitt" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	8	94¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-14
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	186	96¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Kim Ahern be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee? Yes	Open	5	55¢	$0	+5%	2026-09-09
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? Yes	Open	2	89¢	$0	+5%	2026-08-27
Will Trump post "Communist" or "Communism" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	14	88¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-30
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	433	87¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026? Yes	Open	241	90¢	$0	0%	2026-08-30
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? No	Open	7	71¢	-$0	-7%	2026-08-31
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	116	91¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-20
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31? Down	Open	257	50¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-31
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Over	Open	148	85¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-26
Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? Yes	Open	309	81¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-13
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	180	67¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-20
Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 21.5m? Yes	Open	9	25¢	-$2	-98%	2026-08-23
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 30, 2026? Yes	Open	448	88¢	-$2	-1%	2026-08-31
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	169	32¢	-$3	-5%	2026-08-11
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? No	Open	213	13¢	-$3	-12%	2026-09-15
Will Jennifer Austria Barzaga win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives? Yes	Open	217	98¢	-$3	-2%	2026-08-29
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? Under	Open	677	62¢	-$3	-1%	2026-09-20
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	773	65¢	-$4	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	267	90¢	-$4	-2%	2026-08-26
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	471	76¢	-$5	-1%	2026-09-13
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? Yes	Open	92	34¢	-$7	-24%	2026-09-11
Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	16	45¢	-$7	-100%	2026-08-11
Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Open	504	12¢	-$8	-13%	2026-08-28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? No	Open	590	89¢	-$9	-2%	2026-09-08
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Yes	Open	187	57¢	-$9	-9%	2026-08-30
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? No	Open	401	13¢	-$10	-19%	2026-08-31
Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	507	58¢	-$10	-3%	2026-09-06
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August? No	Open	414	80¢	-$10	-3%	2026-09-11
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Up/Down on August 31? Down	Open	206	53¢	-$12	-11%	2026-08-31
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No	Open	500	68¢	-$12	-4%	2026-09-06
Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	159	74¢	-$13	-11%	2026-09-13
Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee? Yes	Open	212	88¢	-$13	-7%	2026-09-01
Will Trump say "Who Are You" this week? Yes	Open	308	64¢	-$14	-7%	2026-08-30
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? No	Open	185	38¢	-$14	-20%	2026-09-20
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	97	55¢	-$14	-26%	2026-09-13
Will "Beef" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	159	52¢	-$14	-17%	2026-09-14
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes	Open	693	41¢	-$17	-6%	2026-09-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? No	Open	391	11¢	-$18	-41%	2026-09-01
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by August 31? Yes	Open	141	23¢	-$18	-57%	2026-09-01
Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%? Over	Open	201	46¢	-$23	-25%	2026-09-20
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes	Open	672	64¢	-$24	-5%	2026-09-20
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD? CDU	Open	449	74¢	-$25	-7%	2026-09-20
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes	Open	151	18¢	-$26	-94%	2026-08-31
Coritiba FBC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under	Open	34	86¢	-$26	-88%	2026-08-23
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	91	32¢	-$27	-92%	2026-08-31
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? No	Open	240	90¢	-$28	-13%	2026-09-06
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes	Open	1,410	40¢	-$28	-5%	2026-09-14
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? No	Open	221	14¢	-$30	-97%	2026-08-12
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Yes	Open	304	17¢	-$30	-59%	2026-09-13
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) AS Roma	Open	2,144	34¢	-$32	-4%	2026-08-24
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? No	Open	331	12¢	-$33	-84%	2026-08-12
Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election? No	Open	119	36¢	-$34	-79%	2026-09-14
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	208	53¢	-$34	-31%	2026-09-06
Will "The Dog Stars" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	497	78¢	-$35	-9%	2026-08-31
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 20–25%? Yes	Open	185	19¢	-$35	-100%	2026-08-11
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing? Yes	Open	804	66¢	-$35	-7%	2026-08-31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes	Open	143	32¢	-$36	-78%	2026-09-01
Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Yes	Open	297	13¢	-$38	-100%	2026-08-18
Will Fenerbahce qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? Yes	Open	161	52¢	-$39	-46%	2026-09-09
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Yes	Open	130	34¢	-$40	-91%	2026-09-01
Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026? Yes	Open	240	26¢	-$43	-69%	2026-08-31
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees	Open	809	53¢	-$44	-10%	2026-09-05
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes	Open	200	27¢	-$48	-88%	2026-08-31
Will "The Dog Stars" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	893	70¢	-$49	-8%	2026-08-31
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? Yes	Open	421	63¢	-$51	-19%	2026-09-10
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes	Open	473	65¢	-$52	-17%	2026-09-08
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	585	10¢	-$58	-100%	2026-06-16
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	244	63¢	-$59	-38%	2026-09-16
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Open	457	32¢	-$59	-41%	2026-09-20
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes	Open	11,010	7¢	-$63	-8%	2026-09-13
Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? No	Open	1,616	60¢	-$65	-7%	2026-09-03
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%? Under	Open	836	58¢	-$67	-14%	2026-09-06
Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series? No	Open	892	64¢	-$69	-12%	2026-09-14
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	167	74¢	-$77	-62%	2026-08-26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? No	Open	1,140	89¢	-$80	-8%	2026-09-15
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? No	Open	5,648	71¢	-$85	-2%	2026-08-31
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? Yes	Open	1,700	76¢	-$86	-7%	2026-09-02
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? No	Open	1,148	44¢	-$92	-18%	2026-08-31
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	373	32¢	-$92	-76%	2026-09-08
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? Yes	Open	674	28¢	-$98	-52%	2026-09-01
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long? No	Open	1,279	74¢	-$99	-10%	2026-08-27
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No	Open	6,636	99¢	-$99	-2%	2026-10-01
Next White House Press Secretary announced by August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	901	23¢	-$104	-50%	2026-08-29
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? No	Open	1,103	30¢	-$105	-32%	2026-09-15
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? Yes	Open	904	82¢	-$105	-14%	2026-08-24
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	924	23¢	-$106	-50%	2026-08-31
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes	Open	188	59¢	-$111	-100%	2026-08-14
Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee? Yes	Open	415	30¢	-$112	-90%	2026-08-18
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? Under	Open	1,159	48¢	-$116	-21%	2026-09-06
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026? Yes	Open	708	36¢	-$117	-46%	2026-09-05
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%? Yes	Open	896	15¢	-$134	-100%	2026-08-18
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	413	33¢	-$134	-100%	2026-08-11
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? No	Open	1,407	58¢	-$135	-17%	2026-09-01
Coritiba FBC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under	Open	196	81¢	-$139	-88%	2026-08-23
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31? Yes	Open	1,595	19¢	-$152	-50%	2026-09-01
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026? No	Open	321	63¢	-$155	-76%	2026-09-01
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? No	Open	267	89¢	-$160	-67%	2026-09-08
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? No	Open	379	48¢	-$171	-94%	2026-08-23
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31? Yes	Open	5,605	72¢	-$196	-5%	2026-08-31
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,167	29¢	-$204	-60%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	57¢	-$205	-36%	2026-08-31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes	Open	1,406	39¢	-$225	-41%	2026-08-29
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes	Open	1,194	21¢	-$244	-97%	2026-08-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	5,689	73¢	-$256	-6%	2026-09-16
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31? No	Open	2,737	42¢	-$287	-25%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	760	74¢	-$297	-53%	2026-08-31
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards? No	Open	3,994	55¢	-$300	-14%	2026-09-14
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? Yes	Open	10,000	4¢	-$303	-85%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? No	Open	357	86¢	-$307	-100%	2026-08-17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	4,682	75¢	-$351	-10%	2026-09-16
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? Yes	Open	3,325	42¢	-$382	-27%	2026-08-31
Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 20m? No	Open	474	84¢	-$389	-98%	2026-08-23
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes	Open	420	94¢	-$395	-100%	2026-08-18
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes	Open	4,120	44¢	-$397	-22%	2026-08-31
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? Yes	Open	1,666	53¢	-$400	-45%	2026-09-16
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,184	36¢	-$414	-97%	2026-09-01
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Yes	Open	1,749	89¢	-$464	-30%	2026-09-02
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes	Open	2,762	40¢	-$499	-45%	2026-09-01
Will "Mutiny" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	1,357	38¢	-$515	-100%	2026-08-24
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-23? Yes	Open	4,729	50¢	-$544	-23%	2026-08-24
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,014	59¢	-$577	-96%	2026-08-31
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Yes	Open	1,113	60¢	-$625	-94%	2026-09-01
Will Trump say "Central Casting" in August? Yes	Open	1,519	88¢	-$818	-61%	2026-08-31
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,612	37¢	-$866	-89%	2026-09-01
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,144	80¢	-$884	-97%	2026-08-31
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? Yes	Open	6,700	15¢	-$948	-94%	2026-09-01
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in August? Yes	Open	3,367	51¢	-$1.3K	-78%	2026-08-31
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	6,000	37¢	-$1.5K	-69%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,562	41¢	-$1.8K	-96%	2026-09-01
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Yes	Open	3,882	55¢	-$2.1K	-100%	2026-08-18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? No	Open	4,400	53¢	-$2.2K	-95%	2026-08-31
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m? Yes	Open	8,886	89¢	-$4.3K	-54%	2026-08-23

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