Wallet ledger

0xd632…8afb

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

183

Realized PnL

$74.9K

Win rate

58%

Realized edge

-0.004

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.004 across 183 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.04, +0.04]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (153 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	60¢	$57	+48%	2027-01-01
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	785	47¢	$50	+14%	2026-08-31
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	339	11¢	$46	+127%	2026-12-31
Blooming Waters Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	103	46¢	$38	+79%	2026-08-31
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? No	Open	60	34¢	$34	+170%	2026-08-24
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	2,601	0¢	$30	+742%	2026-10-04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No	Open	200	72¢	$26	+18%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	479	6¢	$24	+80%	2026-08-31
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? No	Open	173	79¢	$23	+17%	2026-12-31
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No	Open	54	55¢	$22	+73%	2026-11-08
Bulbasaur Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	152	35¢	$20	+37%	2026-08-31
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	100	30¢	$19	+62%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	208	59¢	$18	+15%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	95	70¢	$18	+26%	2026-09-30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	200	24¢	$17	+34%	2026-10-04
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	20	8¢	$16	+1025%	2026-08-24
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	265	59¢	$14	+9%	2026-09-30
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	100	22¢	$13	+57%	2027-01-01
Perfect Order Booster Box Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	82	54¢	$12	+27%	2026-08-31
Ascended Heroes Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	260	12¢	$12	+39%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	284	8¢	$11	+48%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	78	71¢	$11	+19%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	100	53¢	$11	+20%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	104	57¢	$10	+18%	2026-10-31
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No	Open	135	15¢	$9	+47%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	263	59¢	$9	+6%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	404	20¢	$9	+11%	2026-09-30
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Open	150	92¢	$7	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	241	11¢	$7	+27%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	99	1¢	$7	+872%	2026-09-30
Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August? Yes	Open	20	9¢	$7	+368%	2026-09-03
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? No	Open	20	60¢	$7	+55%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	64	71¢	$6	+13%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	120	1¢	$6	+400%	2026-10-31
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	40	12¢	$6	+117%	2026-12-31
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	80	49¢	$5	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026? No	Open	46	77¢	$5	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	1,030	0¢	$5	+452%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	106	5¢	$4	+86%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	163	63¢	$4	+4%	2026-10-31
Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026? No	Open	37	67¢	$4	+16%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	24	63¢	$4	+24%	2026-10-31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? No	Open	20	53¢	$3	+31%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	54	1¢	$3	+750%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	63	3¢	$3	+138%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	154	6¢	$3	+31%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	84	63¢	$3	+5%	2026-09-30
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026? No	Open	43	80¢	$3	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	43¢	$3	+31%	2026-09-30
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? Yes	Open	56	32¢	$3	+14%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	366	1¢	$2	+53%	2026-08-31
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? No	Open	74	88¢	$2	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Open	1,602	0¢	$2	+98%	2028-03-31
Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? No	Open	36	70¢	$2	+9%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	45	3¢	$2	+157%	2026-09-30
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? No	Open	30	84¢	$2	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Open	1,486	0¢	$2	+70%	2028-03-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	120	84¢	$2	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	582	0¢	$2	+100%	2026-12-31
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	25	92¢	$2	+7%	2026-12-31
Charizard ex Price Up/Down on August 31? Down	Open	25	46¢	$1	+12%	2026-08-31
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes	Open	54	24¢	$1	+10%	2027-01-01
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? No	Open	20	93¢	$1	+7%	2026-08-24
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	262	37¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? No	Open	14	82¢	$1	+11%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	115	11¢	$1	+9%	2026-09-30
Will Apple’s market capitalization be at least $6.00T at the end of 2026? No	Open	23	88¢	$1	+5%	2026-12-31
Perfect Order Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	90	33¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	20	15¢	$1	+33%	2026-12-31
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	7	76¢	$1	+17%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	5	62¢	$1	+25%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	150	19¢	$1	+3%	2026-10-31
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes	Open	13	2¢	$1	+354%	2027-10-24
Will ISM Services PMI be at least 58.0 in August? No	Open	17	94¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-03
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	166	0¢	$1	+95%	2026-10-31
Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? No	Open	20	86¢	$1	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes	Open	15	22¢	$1	+16%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	10	8¢	$0	+50%	2026-08-31
Mega Charizard X ex Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	26	22¢	$0	+7%	2026-08-31
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes	Open	16	5¢	$0	+40%	2027-01-01
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	536	0¢	$0	+15%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be less than $0.40 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	22	1¢	$0	+127%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	6	12¢	$0	+42%	2026-09-30
Will ISM Services PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in August? No	Open	5	94¢	$0	+5%	2026-09-03
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Open	80	0¢	$0	+150%	2026-12-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	7	6¢	$0	+50%	2026-12-31
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? Yes	Open	1	24¢	$0	+33%	2026-09-03
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? Yes	Open	59	8¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	1	93¢	$0	+5%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn A100 Index be less than $0.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	65	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-10-31
Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	5	0¢	$0	+499%	2026-12-31
Will ISM Services PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in August? Yes	Open	1	7¢	-$0	-72%	2026-09-03
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	5	8¢	-$0	-33%	2026-10-04
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	160	51¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	42	6¢	-$0	-8%	2026-12-31
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	586	0¢	-$0	-25%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	65	19¢	-$0	-3%	2026-10-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	14	12¢	-$0	-21%	2026-12-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026? No	Open	29	84¢	-$0	-2%	2026-12-31
Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	5	42¢	-$1	-24%	2026-08-31
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	40	3¢	-$1	-52%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	140	75¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-31
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Yes	Open	157	67¢	-$1	-1%	2027-01-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Open	20	25¢	-$2	-30%	2026-12-31
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? Yes	Open	28	51¢	-$2	-11%	2026-09-01
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	20	10¢	-$2	-94%	2026-08-24
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	129	11¢	-$2	-14%	2026-10-31
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	13¢	-$2	-81%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	46	56¢	-$2	-8%	2026-08-31
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	60	16¢	-$3	-31%	2026-12-31
Mega Dragonite ex Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	130	12¢	-$3	-21%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026? No	Open	190	33¢	-$4	-6%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be less than $0.40 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	255	2¢	-$5	-93%	2026-08-31
Squirtle Price Up/Down on August 31? Down	Open	131	58¢	-$6	-7%	2026-08-31
Spain snap election called in 2026? Yes	Open	54	28¢	-$6	-38%	2026-12-31
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	10	85¢	-$6	-71%	2027-01-01
Mega Charizard Y ex Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	465	25¢	-$6	-5%	2026-08-31
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? Yes	Open	25	33¢	-$7	-85%	2027-01-29
Mega Gengar ex Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	67	21¢	-$8	-60%	2026-08-31
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	64	16¢	-$9	-84%	2026-08-31
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	282	8¢	-$9	-41%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	910	15¢	-$10	-7%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.40 and $0.45 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	519	3¢	-$13	-84%	2026-08-31
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? Yes	Open	115	16¢	-$13	-69%	2026-09-30
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	200	61¢	-$17	-14%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	100	87¢	-$17	-20%	2026-09-30
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	805	3¢	-$18	-76%	2026-08-31
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	378	24¢	-$28	-31%	2026-03-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	180	27¢	-$34	-70%	2026-08-31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? Yes	Open	539	10¢	-$37	-71%	2026-09-01
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? Yes	Open	220	26¢	-$39	-67%	2026-10-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,677	8¢	-$39	-30%	2026-09-30
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31? Up	Open	460	36¢	-$50	-30%	2026-08-31
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	516	15¢	-$57	-74%	2026-08-31
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	7,052	1¢	-$62	-69%	2028-11-07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	350	59¢	-$75	-36%	2026-10-04
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	323	25¢	-$76	-94%	2026-08-31
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Open	400	56¢	-$79	-35%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	245	38¢	-$79	-84%	2026-08-31
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	385	45¢	-$125	-73%	2027-01-08
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? Yes	Open	26,995	3¢	-$132	-19%	2026-08-31
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	600	50¢	-$282	-94%	2026-10-10
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	600	49¢	-$283	-96%	2026-10-10
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$290	-83%	2026-10-10
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	49¢	-$314	-91%	2026-10-10
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$330	-94%	2026-10-10
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	47¢	-$331	-100%	2026-10-10
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$341	-97%	2026-10-10
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$341	-98%	2026-10-10
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$342	-98%	2026-10-10
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$345	-99%	2026-10-10
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	700	50¢	-$346	-99%	2026-10-10

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