Wallet positions

0xd632…8afb

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

268

Realized PnL

$8.9K

Win rate

57.8%

Realized edge

+7.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +7.1 pp across 268 resolved positions, 95% CI [+3.6, +11.3], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

132 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:23:41 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes	Held	50	57¢	65.5¢	$32.75	$409.71	+14.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	467.56	14.96¢	25.45¢	$118.99	$173.83	+70.1%	2026-11-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	0.23	32.85¢	38.7¢	$0.09	$173.13	+17.7%	2026-11-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	346.04	24.99¢	25.5¢	$88.24	$150.68	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? Yes	Held	93.35	33.95¢	55.5¢	$51.81	$131.44	+63.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	282.47	36.99¢	73.5¢	$207.62	$103.10	+98.7%	2026-11-01
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	15.45¢	$108.14	$99.00	+1083.0%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5.58	28.3¢	70¢	$3.91	$89.09	+147.3%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	234.59	38.71¢	53.95¢	$126.56	$88.55	+39.4%	2026-11-01
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	7,052.0524	1.28¢	0.25¢	$17.63	$85.04	-80.5%	2028-11-08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	600.0015	82.89¢	83.95¢	$503.70	$80.67	+1.3%	2026-10-05
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	339	0¢	23.5¢	$79.67	$79.67	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	0.14	12.99¢	26¢	$0.04	$75.33	+100.0%	2026-11-01
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	20,161.13	0.09¢	0.25¢	$50.40	$74.28	+150.2%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	527.6932	2.26¢	3.35¢	$17.68	$63.09	+48.1%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	406.96	9.33¢	22.1¢	$89.94	$52.25	+136.8%	2026-12-31
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	8.5¢	$59.49	$50.35	+550.8%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026? No	Held	250	75.07¢	92.5¢	$231.25	$43.56	+23.2%	2026-12-31
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	7.05¢	$49.34	$40.20	+439.8%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	41.4	5.09¢	4.55¢	$1.88	$37.86	-10.7%	2026-11-01
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	100	30¢	63.5¢	$63.50	$33.50	+111.7%	2027-01-01
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	5.3¢	$37.10	$27.95	+305.8%	2027-04-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	103.59	56.99¢	81.5¢	$84.43	$25.38	+43.0%	2026-11-01
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	25.375	0¢	99.95¢	$25.36	$25.36	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	389.02	72.28¢	78.5¢	$305.38	$24.20	+8.6%	2026-11-01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No	Held	400	92¢	97.55¢	$390.20	$22.20	+6.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	27.66	5.25¢	4.4¢	$1.22	$22.08	-16.3%	2026-10-31
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No	Held	1,279.86	73.96¢	75.65¢	$968.21	$21.60	+2.3%	2028-04-01
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	100	22¢	43.5¢	$43.50	$21.50	+97.7%	2027-01-01
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No	Held	53.77	55.35¢	99.35¢	$53.42	$21.09	+79.5%	2027-01-29
Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	146.95	3.01¢	1.75¢	$2.57	$20.81	-41.9%	2026-10-31
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	3.3¢	$23.10	$13.96	+152.7%	2027-04-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	224.96	4.2¢	4.7¢	$10.57	$12.26	+11.9%	2026-10-31
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.95¢	$20.65	$11.51	+125.9%	2026-10-10
Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	5.16	0.09¢	1.8¢	$0.09	$11.44	+1700.8%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	27.5	7.99¢	13.9¢	$3.82	$11.42	+73.8%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	84.84	62.99¢	88.15¢	$74.79	$10.41	+39.9%	2026-11-01
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No	Held	280	7¢	7.5¢	$21.00	$10.00	+7.1%	2026-11-01
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	14.0347	11.99¢	4.95¢	$0.69	$9.38	-58.7%	2026-12-31
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? No	Held	160.68	88.99¢	94.65¢	$152.08	$9.08	+6.3%	2027-01-01
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.55¢	$17.85	$8.71	+95.3%	2027-04-01
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.55¢	$17.85	$8.71	+95.3%	2026-10-10
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.55¢	$17.85	$8.71	+95.3%	2026-10-10
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Held	150	92¢	97.5¢	$146.25	$8.25	+6.0%	2027-01-01
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.45¢	$17.15	$8.01	+87.6%	2026-10-10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	181.25	69.38¢	73.5¢	$133.22	$7.46	+5.9%	2028-04-01
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? No	Held	20	60¢	95¢	$19.00	$7.00	+58.3%	2027-01-01
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.25¢	$15.75	$6.61	+72.3%	2026-10-10
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026? No	Held	43.3409	79.76¢	95¢	$41.17	$6.60	+19.1%	2026-12-31
Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? No	Held	36.081	69.99¢	89¢	$32.11	$6.57	+27.1%	2026-12-31
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	52.78	0¢	11.5¢	$6.07	$6.07	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	281.5	0¢	2.1¢	$5.91	$5.91	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	2.15¢	$15.05	$5.91	+64.6%	2026-10-10
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? No	Held	74.03	88.27¢	95.5¢	$70.70	$5.88	+8.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	130.99	7.48¢	11.75¢	$15.39	$5.59	+57.0%	2027-01-01
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.95¢	$13.65	$4.51	+49.3%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	105.97	1.69¢	5.95¢	$6.31	$4.50	+250.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	81.5	8.43¢	13.8¢	$11.25	$4.37	+63.6%	2026-11-01
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.85¢	$12.95	$3.81	+41.7%	2026-10-10
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	40	0¢	9.5¢	$3.80	$3.80	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	20	57¢	75.5¢	$15.10	$3.70	+32.5%	2026-10-31
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? No	Held	40	85¢	93.7¢	$37.48	$3.48	+10.2%	2027-04-01
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	599.91	1.3¢	1.2¢	$7.20	$3.26	-8.2%	2027-04-01
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? No	Held	30.06	84.3¢	94.3¢	$28.35	$3.01	+11.9%	2027-01-01
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.7¢	$11.90	$2.76	+30.2%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	72.04	5.69¢	9.5¢	$6.84	$2.74	+66.8%	2026-12-31
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	45.5185	30¢	20.5¢	$9.33	$2.46	-31.7%	2028-01-01
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No	Held	120	87¢	89¢	$106.80	$2.40	+2.3%	2027-04-01
Will Ali Khamenei rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026? No	Held	40	70¢	76¢	$30.40	$2.40	+8.6%	2026-12-31
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? OpenAI	Held	18.6582	21¢	31.5¢	$5.88	$1.96	+50.0%	2029-01-01
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? Yes	Held	13.2353	10¢	0.3¢	$0.04	$1.42	-97.0%	2026-11-01
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes	Held	13.4694	1.54¢	8¢	$1.08	$1.37	+419.4%	2027-10-25
Will Apple’s market capitalization be at least $6.00T at the end of 2026? No	Held	23.3878	88¢	94.5¢	$22.10	$1.10	+7.4%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be less than $0.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	312.37	0.24¢	0.55¢	$1.72	$0.97	+128.2%	2026-11-01
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	20	15¢	19.5¢	$3.90	$0.90	+30.0%	2026-12-31
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	75.2	17.89¢	19.05¢	$14.33	$0.86	+6.4%	2026-10-31
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? No	Held	32.7714	25.45¢	13¢	$4.26	$0.83	-48.9%	2026-11-01
Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? No	Held	20	86¢	89.55¢	$17.91	$0.71	+4.1%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	55.2	4.17¢	5.2¢	$2.87	$0.56	+24.5%	2026-11-01
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.35¢	$9.45	$0.31	+3.4%	2026-10-10
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	581.5699	0.3¢	0.35¢	$2.04	$0.29	+16.7%	2026-12-31
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Held	5	94.9¢	97.85¢	$4.89	$0.15	+3.1%	2027-01-01
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	234.1503	3.59¢	3.65¢	$8.55	$0.12	+1.4%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	1.0752	92.99¢	99.45¢	$1.07	$0.07	+6.9%	2027-04-01
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	40	0¢	0.15¢	$0.06	$0.06	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	1,030.28	0.09¢	0.1¢	$1.03	<$0.01	+0.3%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Held	80.2265	0.2¢	0.15¢	$0.12	-$0.04	-25.0%	2027-01-01
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026? No	Held	45.5355	76.73¢	76.5¢	$34.83	-$0.11	-0.3%	2026-12-31
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	586.28	0.19¢	0.15¢	$0.88	-$0.29	-24.9%	2026-12-31
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	599.91	1.3¢	0.8¢	$4.80	-$0.31	-38.8%	2027-04-01
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.25¢	$8.75	-$0.39	-4.3%	2027-04-01
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	41.9874	6¢	4.3¢	$1.81	-$0.71	-28.3%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	9.6	79¢	71¢	$6.82	-$0.77	-10.1%	2026-11-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	160.1	18.1¢	17.5¢	$28.02	-$0.97	-3.3%	2026-12-01
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	6,882.124	0.11¢	0.1¢	$6.88	-$1.03	-13.1%	2028-04-01
Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026? No	Held	37.1975	67.41¢	66¢	$24.55	-$1.05	-2.1%	2026-12-31
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	535.72	0.39¢	0.15¢	$0.80	-$1.29	-61.6%	2026-12-31
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.1¢	$7.70	-$1.44	-15.8%	2026-10-10
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	1.05¢	$7.35	-$1.79	-19.6%	2026-10-10
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.95¢	$6.65	-$2.49	-27.3%	2026-10-10
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Held	20	25¢	11.5¢	$2.30	-$2.70	-54.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	82.86	7.19¢	3.9¢	$3.23	-$2.73	-45.8%	2026-11-01
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.85¢	$5.95	-$3.19	-34.9%	2026-10-10
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.85¢	$5.95	-$3.19	-34.9%	2026-10-10
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.85¢	$5.95	-$3.19	-34.9%	2026-10-10
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	144.07	5.73¢	3.5¢	$5.04	-$3.22	-39.0%	2026-10-31
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026? No	Held	29.3125	84¢	73¢	$21.40	-$3.22	-13.1%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027? Yes	Held	3,282.3776	0.3¢	0.2¢	$6.56	-$3.28	-33.3%	2027-01-01
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.8¢	$5.60	-$3.54	-38.7%	2027-04-01
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? No	Held	7.7077	82¢	93.45¢	$7.20	-$5.52	+14.0%	2026-12-31
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.5¢	$3.50	-$5.64	-61.7%	2027-04-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	255.88	10.02¢	7.2¢	$18.42	-$6.47	-28.2%	2027-01-01
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	10	85¢	18.3¢	$1.83	-$6.67	-78.5%	2027-01-01
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	216.93	43.94¢	40.5¢	$87.86	-$7.47	-7.8%	2026-10-31
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? Yes	Held	25.19	33¢	0.25¢	$0.06	-$8.25	-99.2%	2027-01-29
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	347.11	30.48¢	28¢	$97.19	-$8.62	-8.1%	2026-12-31
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2026-10-10
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2026-10-10
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2026-10-10
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2027-04-01
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2027-04-01
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	699.91	1.3¢	0.05¢	$0.35	-$8.79	-96.2%	2027-04-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? No	Held	611.92	37.07¢	30.5¢	$186.64	-$10.59	-17.7%	2027-01-01
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%? Yes	Held	96.7737	41.41¢	30¢	$29.03	-$11.04	-27.6%	2026-10-13
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	80	49¢	32¢	$25.60	-$13.60	-34.7%	2027-01-01
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Held	1,399.99	26.07¢	25¢	$350.00	-$15.00	-4.1%	2027-01-01
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	199.99	18.9¢	8.55¢	$17.10	-$20.70	-54.8%	2027-01-01
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%? No	Held	149.99	59.33¢	36¢	$54.00	-$37.20	-39.3%	2026-10-13
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision? Yes	Held	574.99	20.44¢	10.95¢	$62.96	-$54.81	-46.4%	2026-10-28
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	400	26.99¢	12.5¢	$50.00	-$58.00	-53.7%	2027-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	452.2871	59.17¢	44.5¢	$201.27	-$66.15	-24.8%	2026-11-30
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	385.2681	44.53¢	3.4¢	$13.10	-$158.47	-92.4%	2027-01-29

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