Wallet ledger

0xd218…b5c9

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

166

Realized PnL

$6.5K

Win rate

50%

Realized edge

+0.003

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.003 across 166 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.05, +0.05]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (500 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	40,034	40¢	$8.6K	+54%	2026-10-31
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	24,803	20¢	$2.7K	+54%	2026-08-11
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	9,608	8¢	$2.4K	+293%	2026-10-04
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	6,494	23¢	$515	+35%	2026-08-11
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Open	34,022	36¢	$482	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No	Open	21,160	34¢	$333	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	3,945	81¢	$287	+9%	2026-11-03
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	194	50¢	$91	+94%	2026-08-31
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No	Open	88	5¢	$76	+1853%	1970-01-01
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	205	53¢	$73	+67%	2026-09-18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	75,354	99¢	$71	+0%	2026-09-16
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs ReThink (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Drama eSports	Open	270	43¢	$63	+54%	2026-07-15
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	155	52¢	$54	+67%	2027-01-01
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	60	18¢	$49	+445%	2026-08-18
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? No	Open	530	58¢	$47	+15%	2026-08-31
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? No	Open	139	46¢	$46	+71%	2026-10-11
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes	Open	266	50¢	$45	+34%	2026-12-31
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	52	13¢	$45	+643%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	118	50¢	$44	+75%	2026-09-20
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? No	Open	167	24¢	$40	+101%	2026-10-04
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? No	Open	45	11¢	$40	+785%	2026-08-18
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins	Open	92	8¢	$39	+525%	2026-04-24
Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat? No	Open	125	57¢	$38	+54%	2026-11-03
Will valve announce Arjun as the new hero at The International 2026? No	Open	80	55¢	$36	+82%	1970-01-01
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No	Open	123	40¢	$36	+72%	2026-09-16
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No	Open	52	31¢	$33	+206%	1970-01-01
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	100	64¢	$33	+52%	2026-08-31
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Samsung Lions Lotte Giants	Open	145	21¢	$30	+97%	2026-07-24
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? No	Open	80	36¢	$29	+100%	2026-08-26
Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	100	39¢	$26	+65%	2026-09-14
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? No	Open	140	75¢	$25	+24%	2026-09-30
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	95	43¢	$24	+60%	2026-11-13
Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee? No	Open	100	73¢	$24	+33%	2026-08-18
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? No	Open	240	60¢	$23	+16%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30? No	Open	140	84¢	$21	+18%	2026-09-30
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative? No	Open	75	56¢	$19	+47%	2026-11-12
Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	55	64¢	$19	+55%	2027-06-30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	332	22¢	$19	+26%	2026-12-31
Will valve announce Any different hero as the new hero at The International 2026? No	Open	79	76¢	$19	+32%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? No	Open	77	70¢	$19	+34%	2026-06-30
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	200	86¢	$18	+10%	2026-09-10
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? Yes	Open	143	63¢	$17	+19%	2026-09-14
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? No	Open	79	74¢	$16	+28%	2026-09-30
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by 12–16%? No	Open	40	62¢	$15	+63%	2026-08-04
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	68¢	$15	+37%	2026-09-30
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No	Open	963	13¢	$15	+12%	2026-12-06
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	146	51¢	$15	+20%	2026-11-03
Will Nicolas Lehrke win the next Hannover Region presidential election? No	Open	100	84¢	$15	+18%	2026-09-13
Will Sinja Münzberg win the next Hannover Region presidential election? No	Open	100	85¢	$15	+17%	2026-09-13
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? No	Open	99	59¢	$14	+24%	2026-10-11
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? No	Open	138	25¢	$14	+41%	2026-11-03
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31? No	Open	140	90¢	$14	+11%	2026-08-31
Will Oliver Junk win the next Hannover Region presidential election? No	Open	100	74¢	$13	+18%	2026-09-13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	78	55¢	$13	+30%	2026-10-28
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No	Open	60	71¢	$13	+30%	2027-12-31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	766	36¢	$12	+5%	2026-10-04
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30? No	Open	160	87¢	$12	+9%	2026-09-30
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No	Open	94	71¢	$12	+18%	2026-12-31
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	60	73¢	$12	+27%	2027-01-01
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	65	80¢	$12	+23%	2026-11-03
Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election? No	Open	90	84¢	$12	+15%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No	Open	257	86¢	$12	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? No	Open	100	89¢	$11	+13%	2026-08-04
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	57	74¢	$11	+27%	2026-10-31
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	446	82¢	$11	+3%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	73	81¢	$11	+18%	2026-08-31
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? No	Open	73	80¢	$11	+18%	2026-09-01
Will Everton Blair win the 2026 GA-13 special election? No	Open	68	71¢	$11	+22%	2026-07-29
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	57	76¢	$10	+24%	2026-10-31
Will Axel von der Ohe win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	115	61¢	$10	+15%	2026-09-13
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July? No	Open	144	72¢	$10	+10%	2026-08-26
Will Maximilian Pohler win the next Braunschweig mayoral election? No	Open	100	87¢	$9	+11%	2026-09-13
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 0%-5%? No	Open	56	81¢	$9	+20%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? No	Open	166	72¢	$9	+8%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 5%-10%? No	Open	56	82¢	$9	+19%	2026-11-03
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? No	Open	59	54¢	$9	+27%	2026-10-11
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	73	82¢	$8	+14%	2026-08-31
Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? No	Open	44	77¢	$8	+25%	2026-10-31
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? No	Open	94	58¢	$8	+14%	2026-10-11
Will Peter Karst win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	115	89¢	$8	+7%	2026-09-13
Will the season series between the Dolphins and Patriots end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Open	65	60¢	$7	+19%	2027-01-12
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? No	Open	92	77¢	$7	+11%	2026-11-03
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No	Open	125	56¢	$7	+10%	2026-11-03
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	69	88¢	$7	+12%	2026-08-25
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat? No	Open	74	82¢	$7	+12%	2026-11-03
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	83¢	$7	+14%	2026-09-30
Will Tim Wilkins be the FL-11 Republican nominee? No	Open	100	93¢	$7	+7%	2026-08-18
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title? No	Open	139	91¢	$7	+5%	2026-10-11
Will the White River at Indianapolis peak under 14 ft during the August 2026 floods? No	Open	40	82¢	$7	+21%	2026-09-01
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No	Open	46	77¢	$7	+19%	2027-01-31
Will exactly 6 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	55	87¢	$7	+14%	2027-06-30
Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	89¢	$6	+12%	2026-09-30
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	89¢	$6	+12%	2026-09-30
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No	Open	180	77¢	$6	+4%	1970-01-01
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos	Open	86	51¢	$6	+14%	2026-06-02
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No	Open	66	68¢	$6	+14%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	90¢	$6	+4%	2026-12-31
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? No	Open	80	84¢	$6	+9%	2026-10-29
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? No	Open	75	61¢	$6	+13%	2027-01-15
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? No	Open	80	87¢	$6	+8%	2026-10-29
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat? No	Open	80	82¢	$6	+8%	2026-11-03
Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	60	90¢	$5	+10%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30? No	Open	140	95¢	$5	+4%	2026-09-30
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? No	Open	100	55¢	$5	+9%	2026-10-20
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	72¢	$5	+13%	2026-11-03
Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	53	87¢	$5	+11%	2026-10-31
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No	Open	70	67¢	$5	+11%	2026-12-31
Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	60	92¢	$5	+9%	2026-08-18
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30? No	Open	79	92¢	$5	+7%	2026-09-30
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%? No	Open	80	92¢	$5	+7%	2026-10-29
Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	54	91¢	$5	+10%	2026-10-31
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No	Open	114	55¢	$5	+7%	1970-01-01
Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	55	91¢	$5	+9%	2026-08-25
Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	55	91¢	$5	+9%	2027-06-30
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? No	Open	67	89¢	$4	+8%	2026-08-31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 18%-21%? No	Open	60	84¢	$4	+9%	2026-11-03
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? No	Open	91	90¢	$4	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat? No	Open	100	95¢	$4	+4%	2026-11-03
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	55	88¢	$4	+9%	2027-01-01
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by 8–12%? No	Open	40	90¢	$4	+11%	2026-08-04
Will Lucien Rezende win the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election? No	Open	60	93¢	$4	+7%	2026-10-04
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? No	Open	100	93¢	$4	+4%	2026-10-20
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	73	83¢	$4	+6%	2026-08-31
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No	Open	166	85¢	$4	+3%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No	Open	95	96¢	$4	+4%	2026-06-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	84¢	$4	+3%	2026-12-31
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No	Open	60	83¢	$4	+7%	2026-11-03
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	67	85¢	$4	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026? No	Open	80	91¢	$4	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Open	264	56¢	$4	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	60	92¢	$3	+6%	2026-10-31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election? No	Open	49	91¢	$3	+8%	2026-11-03
Will Paula Belmonte win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? No	Open	40	91¢	$3	+9%	2026-10-04
Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	60	94¢	$3	+6%	2026-10-31
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? No	Open	49	92¢	$3	+7%	2026-08-31
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? No	Open	40	92¢	$3	+9%	2026-09-02
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	50	91¢	$3	+7%	2026-10-31
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Open	75	75¢	$3	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	63	84¢	$3	+6%	1970-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 15%-20%? No	Open	80	86¢	$3	+4%	2026-11-03
Will CDU win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	60	94¢	$3	+5%	2026-09-06
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	60	88¢	$2	+5%	2027-01-01
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No	Open	53	85¢	$2	+5%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat? No	Open	131	95¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the MN-02 House seat? No	Open	100	90¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-04
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	96	93¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-03
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026? No	Open	96	97¢	$2	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Daniel Lemes win the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election? No	Open	40	95¢	$2	+6%	2026-10-04
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	87	97¢	$2	+2%	2026-08-31
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? No	Open	100	62¢	$2	+3%	2026-10-20
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? No	Open	49	89¢	$2	+5%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the CA-29 House seat? No	Open	60	93¢	$2	+3%	2026-11-03
Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026? No	Open	58	95¢	$2	+3%	2027-01-15
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-06 House seat? No	Open	80	87¢	$2	+3%	2026-11-03
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	60	93¢	$2	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Meituan be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	96¢	$2	+5%	2026-09-30
Will Heath Howard be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? No	Open	60	96¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-08
Will Lyric Medeiros come in third-place on Big Brother season 28? No	Open	40	95¢	$2	+4%	2026-10-01
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? No	Open	51	91¢	$2	+4%	2026-10-29
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? No	Open	104	94¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-03
Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	97¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-30
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	97¢	$2	+3%	2026-11-03
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	57	92¢	$2	+3%	2026-10-31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 9%-12%? No	Open	60	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-11-03
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? No	Open	43	95¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 0%-3%? No	Open	40	96¢	$1	+4%	2026-11-03
Will Christians Settler for Peace (C4P) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-14
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026? No	Open	78	95¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-15
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? No	Open	78	92¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-15
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	54	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30? No	Open	120	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-30
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 3%-6%? No	Open	60	86¢	$1	+2%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election? No	Open	40	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-11-03
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026? No	Open	78	94¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-15
Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	40	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	86¢	$1	+2%	1970-01-01
Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	60	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	94¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	97¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-30
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	93¢	$1	+2%	1970-01-01
Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 AL East title? No	Open	63	93¢	$1	+2%	2026-10-11
Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2026 AFC West? No	Open	108	65¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-04
Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-30
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No	Open	60	92¢	$1	+2%	2026-12-06
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	126	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-13
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No	Open	60	92¢	$1	+2%	2026-10-29
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? No	Open	40	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Open	414	14¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	60	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	92¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Marcus Rashford join Napoli? No	Open	40	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-02
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	61	95¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-04
Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%? No	Open	75	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-11-12
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No	Open	64	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-06
Will Dungon Traditional Leaders Organization (DTLO) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-14
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Open	93	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-13
Will Alliance of Bangsamoro Tri-People’s Party (ABOT) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	98¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-14
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Open	172	98¢	$1	+0%	2026-12-31
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	60	94¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	86¢	$1	+1%	1970-01-01
Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No	Open	152	85¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-05
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West? No	Open	108	96¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-04
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? No	Open	60	98¢	$0	+1%	2027-12-31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 30%-35%? No	Open	57	89¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-03
Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-18
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? No	Open	60	71¢	$0	+1%	2027-12-31
Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	80	96¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	68	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-13
Will Marcus Rashford join Bayern Munich? No	Open	40	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-02
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	64	92¢	$0	+1%	2027-03-31
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-30
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-20
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Open	53	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-13
Will LDPR win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	55	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-31
Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19? No	Open	95	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will Paris FC win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	40	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026? No	Open	80	96¢	$0	+0%	1970-01-01
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	40	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-31
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	76	96¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	80	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-13
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	96¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will CPRF win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	55	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Google have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	56	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Communists of Russia win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	80	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will New People win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	80	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will A Just Russia win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	80	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan? No	Open	40	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-02
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	62	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will People’s Consultative (Mushawara) Party (MUSHAWARA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Bangsamoro Party (BAPA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Bangsamoro Peoples’ Democratic Party (RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	65	91¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-25
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-25
Will Communists of Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-25
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-25
Will A Just Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Brest win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	59	100¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will Le Havre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	59	100¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will Auxerre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	59	100¢	$0	+0%	2027-05-30
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%? No	Open	75	82¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-12
Will CPRF win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Larissa Boch win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will A Just Russia win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Rodina win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Partido Bangon Bangsamoro (PBB) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Indigenous, Settlers, Sama and Minorities Alliance Party (ISAMA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Moro Ako Party (MORO AKO) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Bangsamoro Empowerment and Social Transformation Party (BEST PARTY) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be less than $250M at market close on IPO day? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Communists of Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will New People win the next Adygea Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will The Royal House of the Sultanate of Marawi (ROHOSUMA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will League of Bangsamoro Islamic Advocate Associate (LBIAA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-14
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Bruno Adam Wolf win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? No	Open	42	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will CPRF win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	65	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	61	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	61	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	56	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	58	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	50	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-13
Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No	Open	50	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-13
Will LDPR win the next Astrakhan Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	51	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	48	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Communists of Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	45	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will CF win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-13
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-04
Will New People win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will Marcus Rashford join Chelsea? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-02
Will Marcus Rashford join Al-Hilal? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-02
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $250M and $300M at market close on IPO day? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $400M and $450M at market close on IPO day? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $300M and $350M at market close on IPO day? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will CPRF win the next Astrakhan Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	51	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-20
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? No	Open	80	91¢	$0	0%	2026-11-03
Will New People win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-20
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	$0	0%	2026-11-03
Will LDPR win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	48	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-20
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	42	100¢	$0	0%	2026-12-31
Will CPRF win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-20
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $350M and $400M at market close on IPO day? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-01
Will LDPR win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-20
Will LDPR win the next Adygea Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-20
Will Microsoft be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	60	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	44	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-10-04
Will A Just Russia win the next Adygea Parliament elections? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will CPRF win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	48	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will New People win the next Astrakhan Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	51	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Open	55	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	59	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 0%-10%? No	Open	60	90¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	65	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	76	99¢	-$0	-0%	2027-03-31
Will The Weeknd be the top artist for 2026? No	Open	96	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	100	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? No	Open	60	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-14
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 1.0%? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-19
Will A Just Russia win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	48	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will LDPR win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	80	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	40	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will CPRF win the next Amur Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	60	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No	Open	52	100¢	-$0	-0%	1970-01-01
Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will New People win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	65	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	74	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-31
Will Rodina win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	48	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat? No	Open	100	97¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-03
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? No	Open	80	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-02
Will Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? No	Open	43	98¢	-$0	-1%	2027-04-01
Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	86	98¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Bayern Munich? No	Open	80	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-02
Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	70	97¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	59	99¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	95¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Liverpool? No	Open	80	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-02
Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026? No	Open	78	97¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-15
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No	Open	100	98¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? No	Open	80	93¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	85	96¢	-$0	-0%	2027-03-31
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West? No	Open	108	69¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-04
Will The Greens win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	60	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-06
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? No	Open	78	85¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-15
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Barcelona? No	Open	80	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-02
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026? No	Open	78	95¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-15
Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	80	99¢	-$0	-1%	2027-05-30
Will AfD win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	60	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-06
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-31
Will LDPR win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	65	100¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-20
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	88¢	-$1	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	60	90¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	98¢	-$1	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West? No	Open	108	68¢	-$1	-1%	2027-01-04
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.0%? No	Open	75	98¢	-$1	-1%	2026-11-12
Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No	Open	80	99¢	-$1	-1%	2027-05-30
Will Maren Kaminski win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	60	99¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-13
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? No	Open	100	100¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-31
Will A Just Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	65	100¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-20
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-30
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? No	Open	80	76¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-29
Will SPD win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	60	100¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-06
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? No	Open	166	26¢	-$1	-2%	2026-11-03
Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	98¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-30
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	60	100¢	-$1	-2%	2026-08-25
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Open	75	99¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Open	80	92¢	-$1	-2%	2026-12-09
Will the Dolphins win the season series against the Patriots during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Open	65	99¢	-$1	-2%	2027-01-12
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	61¢	-$1	-2%	2026-08-31
Will A Just Russia win the next Astrakhan Oblast Parliament elections? No	Open	51	100¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-20
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	94¢	-$1	-3%	2026-11-03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Open	80	99¢	-$1	-2%	2026-12-09
Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? No	Open	71	98¢	-$2	-2%	2027-05-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	90¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No	Open	57	92¢	-$2	-3%	1970-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	85¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Jessica Schülke win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	60	100¢	-$2	-3%	2026-09-13
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Open	75	88¢	-$2	-3%	2026-12-31
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	66	81¢	-$2	-4%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	84¢	-$2	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	92¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series? No	Open	65	97¢	-$2	-4%	2026-09-14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	596	27¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	119	93¢	-$2	-2%	2026-09-20
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	60	90¢	-$2	-5%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	96¢	-$3	-2%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30? No	Open	79	71¢	-$3	-5%	2026-09-30
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	57	100¢	-$3	-5%	2026-11-03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Open	80	75¢	-$3	-5%	2026-12-09
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%? No	Open	75	85¢	-$3	-5%	2026-11-12
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	172	85¢	-$3	-2%	2026-12-31
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	55	85¢	-$4	-8%	2027-06-30
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%? No	Open	75	93¢	-$4	-5%	2026-11-12
Will Michael Walther win the next Braunschweig mayoral election? No	Open	80	97¢	-$4	-5%	2026-09-13
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No	Open	114	44¢	-$4	-8%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	60	81¢	-$5	-9%	1970-01-01
Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Open	55	94¢	-$5	-9%	2027-06-30
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No	Open	154	87¢	-$5	-3%	2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Open	110	92¢	-$5	-5%	1970-01-01
Will "Widow's Bay" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	100	89¢	-$5	-6%	2026-09-14
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	60	86¢	-$5	-10%	2026-09-30
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 25%-30%? No	Open	54	86¢	-$5	-12%	2026-11-03
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? No	Open	100	89¢	-$7	-8%	2026-10-20
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 20%-25%? No	Open	49	96¢	-$7	-15%	2026-11-03
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? No	Open	80	86¢	-$7	-10%	2026-10-29
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? No	Open	78	82¢	-$8	-12%	2027-01-15
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	221	46¢	-$8	-8%	2028-11-07
Will "Widow's Bay" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	100	98¢	-$8	-8%	2026-09-14
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	73	83¢	-$8	-13%	2026-08-31
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	139	45¢	-$9	-14%	2026-11-03
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? No	Open	82	86¢	-$9	-13%	2026-11-12
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Open	80	63¢	-$10	-19%	2026-08-31
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? No	Open	80	81¢	-$10	-15%	2026-10-29
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? No	Open	106	50¢	-$10	-19%	2026-09-13
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 AL Central title? No	Open	139	97¢	-$11	-8%	2026-10-11
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? No	Open	139	74¢	-$11	-11%	2026-11-03
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026? No	Open	73	80¢	-$12	-21%	2026-08-31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Open	121	60¢	-$13	-18%	1970-01-01
Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election? No	Open	80	83¢	-$13	-20%	2026-08-29
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? No	Open	62	92¢	-$14	-25%	2026-10-11
Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	100	73¢	-$15	-20%	2026-09-14
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	764	31¢	-$15	-6%	2026-09-30
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool? No	Open	200	33¢	-$16	-25%	2026-09-02
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31? No	Open	240	39¢	-$17	-18%	2026-08-31
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No	Open	120	58¢	-$19	-27%	2026-12-31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	215	42¢	-$19	-21%	2026-12-31
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? No	Open	205	49¢	-$25	-24%	2027-01-31
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? No	Open	94	87¢	-$25	-31%	2026-10-11
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31? No	Open	220	87¢	-$26	-14%	2026-08-31
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes	Open	98	86¢	-$34	-40%	2026-12-31
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? No	Open	163	75¢	-$39	-31%	2026-10-04
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kia Tigers NC Dinos	Open	224	42¢	-$39	-42%	2026-07-12
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title? No	Open	139	64¢	-$40	-45%	2026-10-11
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG Twins Hanwha Eagles	Open	1,446	30¢	-$48	-11%	2026-07-12
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles	Open	161	79¢	-$61	-48%	2026-07-07
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Open	255	50¢	-$71	-56%	2027-01-16
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes	Open	493	50¢	-$200	-81%	2026-12-31
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	7,424	23¢	-$229	-13%	2028-11-07
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	2,780	11¢	-$231	-78%	2026-10-31
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No	Open	1,725	22¢	-$246	-66%	1970-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	14,104	14¢	-$411	-21%	2028-11-07
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes	Open	1,340	49¢	-$491	-75%	2026-12-06
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	3,258	66¢	-$503	-23%	2026-11-03
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	3,906	21¢	-$536	-65%	2026-10-31
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	38,520	39¢	-$575	-4%	1970-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	28,516	34¢	-$679	-7%	2026-09-16
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,884	50¢	-$758	-81%	2028-11-07
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes	Open	3,782	44¢	-$1.2K	-74%	2026-11-03
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,744	50¢	-$1.3K	-95%	2028-11-07
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes	Open	4,270	40¢	-$1.7K	-97%	2026-11-03
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	7,318	33¢	-$2.4K	-98%	2026-10-31
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	17,748	26¢	-$3.5K	-75%	2026-10-31
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	20,498	18¢	-$3.5K	-95%	2026-10-04
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	23,446	19¢	-$4.3K	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	12,461	50¢	-$6.2K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	12,692	50¢	-$6.3K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	50,118	33¢	-$16.1K	-98%	2026-10-04
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	34,590	50¢	-$16.5K	-95%	2028-11-07
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	34,837	50¢	-$16.7K	-96%	2028-11-07
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	34,590	50¢	-$17.2K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	34,570	50¢	-$17.2K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	34,748	50¢	-$17.3K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	35,337	50¢	-$17.5K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	35,337	50¢	-$17.6K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	35,337	50¢	-$17.6K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	35,337	50¢	-$17.6K	-100%	2028-11-07

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →