Wallet positions

0xd218…b5c9

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

747

Realized PnL

-$4.6K

Win rate

41.2%

Realized edge

-2.2 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -2.2 pp across 747 resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.9, -0.5], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:23:15 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	27,820.8229	10.75¢	49.35¢	$13.7K	$33.1K	+358.8%	2027-01-01
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	48,143.2613	4.55¢	2.45¢	$1.2K	$23.4K	-46.2%	2027-01-01
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	23,290.2846	12.46¢	44.05¢	$10.3K	$23.2K	+253.3%	2027-01-01
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	35,561.5518	2.14¢	2.65¢	$942.38	$21.5K	+23.8%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	9,390.8085	22.17¢	16.5¢	$1.5K	$19.8K	-25.6%	2026-10-29
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No	Held	32,269.9611	43.88¢	58.5¢	$18.9K	$17.4K	+33.3%	2026-06-03
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Held	39,955.414	5.4¢	4.45¢	$1.8K	$11.1K	-17.7%	2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	26,989.36	8.56¢	6.95¢	$1.9K	$9.5K	-18.8%	2028-11-08
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	4,033.1502	7.77¢	8.5¢	$342.82	$8.8K	+9.3%	2026-11-04
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes	Held	9,669.0376	12.45¢	8.5¢	$821.87	$8.3K	-31.8%	2026-11-04
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No	Held	394.8279	24.01¢	26.5¢	$104.63	$7.8K	+10.4%	2028-04-01
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No	Held	1,163.25	26.99¢	26.5¢	$308.26	$7.7K	-1.9%	2026-11-29
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No	Held	793.57	40.92¢	39.5¢	$313.46	$6.6K	-3.5%	2027-05-30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	12,614.0113	34.02¢	28.5¢	$3.6K	$6.6K	-16.2%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Held	947.072	64.73¢	72.5¢	$686.63	$6.2K	+12.0%	2026-10-31
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	8,421.8095	6.5¢	23.35¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+258.7%	2026-10-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	855.9383	26.49¢	25.5¢	$218.26	$3.0K	-3.7%	2026-12-09
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Held	585.4879	20.54¢	26.9¢	$157.50	$2.8K	+30.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4,821.2237	14.11¢	42¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+197.6%	2026-10-31
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No	Held	1,897.2593	72.57¢	74.85¢	$1.4K	$2.5K	+3.1%	2026-11-29
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	1,294.41	3.03¢	9.8¢	$126.85	$2.0K	+223.4%	2027-04-01
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Held	229.6922	56.98¢	57.5¢	$132.07	$1.7K	+0.9%	2027-01-02
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? No	Held	951.211	81.7¢	83.5¢	$794.26	$1.5K	+2.2%	2027-06-15
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	2,317.93	3.03¢	7.85¢	$181.96	$1.4K	+159.1%	2027-04-01
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	2,504.77	8.14¢	9.75¢	$244.22	$1.4K	+19.8%	2027-04-01
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	1,916.72	3.8¢	15.5¢	$297.09	$1.4K	+307.1%	2027-01-26
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes	Held	4,429.8761	13.92¢	40.6¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	+191.6%	2026-11-15
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	2,607	3.03¢	5.95¢	$155.12	$1.4K	+96.3%	2027-04-01
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4,375.07	3.22¢	2.45¢	$107.19	$1.3K	-24.0%	2026-10-31
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	3,407.24	6.33¢	12.5¢	$425.90	$1.2K	+97.3%	2027-04-01
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No	Held	480.5182	94.44¢	92.35¢	$443.76	$1.2K	-2.2%	2026-10-05
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4,187.45	3.22¢	6.5¢	$272.18	$1.1K	+101.5%	2026-10-31
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Held	1,700.57	3.03¢	7.5¢	$127.54	$993.53	+147.5%	2027-04-01
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes	Held	2,161.8466	11.72¢	43¢	$929.59	$986.69	+266.8%	2026-10-31
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No	Held	556.03	46.15¢	50.5¢	$280.80	$976.92	+9.4%	2027-02-01
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	997.1092	22.64¢	12.5¢	$124.64	$965.94	-44.8%	2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	4,560.4764	26.8¢	36.5¢	$1.7K	$927.22	+36.2%	2026-10-28
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Held	942.9102	45.42¢	45.95¢	$433.27	$811.71	+1.2%	2027-01-02
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	245.2373	40.8¢	49¢	$120.17	$798.55	+20.1%	2026-10-28
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Held	800	14¢	14.5¢	$116.00	$724.86	+3.6%	2026-10-26
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	34,836.6899	0.76¢	2.8¢	$975.43	$710.29	+267.9%	2028-11-08
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No	Held	2,473.0716	82.84¢	84.15¢	$2.1K	$659.75	+1.6%	2027-01-26
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No	Held	2,065.6766	28.72¢	42.5¢	$877.91	$655.96	+47.9%	2026-11-04
Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	2,940	0.91¢	13.5¢	$396.90	$634.97	+1371.5%	2027-01-26
Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	2,940	0.91¢	11.5¢	$338.10	$576.17	+1153.5%	2027-01-26
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No	Held	638.5	53.7¢	48.5¢	$309.67	$575.80	-9.7%	2027-02-01
Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	6,633.0431	3.64¢	8.15¢	$540.59	$557.67	+123.8%	2027-01-26
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No	Held	880	47¢	43.5¢	$382.80	$555.92	-7.4%	2026-11-04
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes	Held	6,246.398	17.65¢	26.1¢	$1.6K	$550.25	+47.9%	2026-12-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No	Held	744.7814	72.99¢	72.5¢	$539.97	$532.63	-0.7%	2026-11-04
LoL: Disguised vs Maryville University (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs Maryville University	Held	2,067.7735	68.34¢	99.95¢	$2.1K	$512.98	+46.2%	2026-10-08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No	Held	3,912.7904	79.46¢	91.5¢	$3.6K	$470.94	+15.1%	2026-10-16
Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	2,940	0.91¢	7.75¢	$227.85	$465.92	+744.8%	2027-01-26
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	244.94	95.4¢	97.35¢	$238.45	$465.77	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,398.91	35.16¢	42.5¢	$594.54	$439.01	+20.9%	2026-11-04
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	3,364.0689	23.53¢	26.5¢	$891.48	$423.80	+12.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Held	352.023	77.22¢	73.5¢	$258.74	$404.56	-4.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No	Held	180	77.09¢	81.5¢	$146.70	$402.38	+5.7%	2026-11-04
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	1,991.22	17.37¢	6.5¢	$129.43	$402.33	-62.6%	2026-10-30
New Mexico State vs. Florida International: O/U 51.5 Under	Held	982	59¢	99.95¢	$981.51	$402.13	+69.4%	2026-10-07
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes	Held	2,940	0.91¢	4.75¢	$139.65	$377.72	+417.8%	2027-01-26
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	180	61.66¢	63.5¢	$114.30	$362.26	+3.0%	2027-02-01
Hanshin Tigers vs. Hiroshima Carp Hanshin Tigers	Held	898.2248	59.42¢	97.5¢	$875.77	$342.25	+64.1%	2026-10-14
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	154.7279	16.57¢	95.45¢	$147.69	$323.85	+475.7%	2027-01-01
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? Yes	Held	150.76	20.77¢	84.5¢	$127.39	$318.09	+306.7%	2027-06-15
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No	Held	2,133.2817	85.78¢	77.9¢	$1.7K	$310.50	-9.2%	2026-10-31
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Held	10,299.3929	95.11¢	96.35¢	$9.9K	$305.44	+1.3%	2026-11-04
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	1,095.4023	38.24¢	36.5¢	$399.82	$302.65	-4.6%	2027-02-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	394.1553	76.9¢	76.5¢	$301.53	$301.94	-0.5%	2026-12-09
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Held	279.51	59.43¢	67.5¢	$188.67	$301.15	+13.6%	2026-11-04
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	34,589.5199	0.76¢	1.25¢	$432.37	$290.84	+64.3%	2028-11-08
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	338.2496	74.36¢	92.5¢	$312.88	$288.86	+24.4%	2026-10-30
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? No	Held	384.6624	67.72¢	67.5¢	$259.65	$282.27	-0.3%	2026-11-29
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes	Held	332.14	21.44¢	36¢	$119.57	$263.05	+67.8%	2026-12-01
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes	Held	1,834.02	11.79¢	21.5¢	$394.31	$225.16	+82.2%	2026-12-31
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,883.5	0¢	10.35¢	$194.94	$194.94	0.0%	2028-11-08
Spread: Florida International (-17.5) Florida International	Held	300	36¢	99.6¢	$298.80	$190.80	+176.7%	2026-10-07
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Held	1,578.06	83.71¢	86.5¢	$1.4K	$167.90	+3.3%	2026-10-26
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes	Held	1,375.67	53.96¢	62.35¢	$857.73	$166.03	+15.5%	2026-12-01
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	850.3834	21.11¢	26.5¢	$225.35	$155.82	+25.5%	2026-11-04
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes	Held	7,712.9182	20.49¢	22.5¢	$1.7K	$154.89	+9.8%	2027-05-30
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No	Held	130.3675	97.36¢	99.05¢	$129.13	$144.26	+1.7%	2026-12-06
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? No	Held	230	23.43¢	82.5¢	$189.75	$135.85	+252.0%	2026-10-24
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? No	Held	409.8093	82.55¢	82.5¢	$338.09	$133.60	-0.1%	2026-11-29
Suzhou: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Emerson Jones Zhuoxuan Bai	Held	250	47.39¢	99.95¢	$249.88	$131.38	+110.9%	2026-10-14
W35 Las Vegas, NV: Francesca Mattioli vs Duru Soke Francesca Mattioli	Held	263.0093	50.28¢	99.95¢	$262.88	$130.21	+98.8%	2026-10-14
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Oilers	Held	656.4053	75.2¢	95¢	$623.59	$129.95	+26.3%	2026-10-08
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes	Held	1,903.1682	8.62¢	6.5¢	$123.71	$128.50	-24.6%	2026-11-15
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes	Held	10,946.9398	25.8¢	20.5¢	$2.2K	$125.59	-20.5%	2027-05-30
Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No	Held	360	68¢	90.5¢	$325.80	$114.67	+33.1%	2028-01-01
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	156	11¢	74.5¢	$116.22	$106.86	+577.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No	Held	158.57	70.77¢	70¢	$111.00	$98.50	-1.1%	2026-11-02
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs Iowa Stormboar	Held	296.0396	67.12¢	99.95¢	$295.89	$97.16	+48.9%	2026-10-08
W35 Wagga Wagga: I Wen Wan vs Tahlia Kokkinis I Wen Wan	Held	100	20¢	99.5¢	$99.50	$94.50	+397.5%	2026-10-15
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? No	Held	360	23.27¢	49¢	$176.40	$92.60	+110.5%	2027-04-16
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Held	214.05	56.82¢	99.8¢	$213.62	$91.98	+75.6%	2027-01-01
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026? No	Held	128	8.56¢	79¢	$101.12	$90.16	+822.6%	2026-10-16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	255.2462	47.46¢	43.5¢	$111.03	$90.09	-8.3%	2026-12-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	196.55	55.03¢	63.5¢	$124.81	$87.81	+15.4%	2026-12-01
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No	Held	509	94¢	93.5¢	$475.92	$85.20	-0.5%	2026-11-15
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? No	Held	352.7	49.55¢	73.4¢	$258.88	$84.11	+48.1%	2027-01-01
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons Tokyo Yakult Swallows	Held	362.2249	46.7¢	67.7¢	$245.23	$83.26	+45.0%	2026-09-11
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Held	1,702.1757	18.9¢	23.25¢	$395.76	$73.98	+23.0%	2026-11-04
Counter-Strike: Villainous vs FarmVille (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs FarmVille	Held	250	71.19¢	99.95¢	$249.88	$71.88	+40.4%	2026-10-08
Will MrBeast's next video get between 140 and 150 million views on week 1? No	Held	477.844	85.21¢	99.95¢	$477.61	$70.39	+17.3%	2026-10-11
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No	Held	225.85	13.69¢	44.6¢	$100.73	$69.79	+225.6%	2026-12-31
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No	Held	170	52.11¢	93¢	$158.10	$69.50	+78.4%	2026-11-05
Will Bijan Robinson have 1,374.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes	Held	348	38.07¢	57.5¢	$200.10	$67.61	+51.0%	2027-01-27
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? No	Held	340	77.32¢	96.55¢	$328.27	$65.35	+24.9%	2026-10-13
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? No	Held	187.4005	56.34¢	98.45¢	$184.50	$63.41	+74.7%	2026-10-05
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs ReThink (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Drama eSports	Held	269.69	43.29¢	66¢	$178.00	$61.24	+52.5%	2026-07-22
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No	Held	751.7877	49.89¢	58¢	$436.04	$60.97	+16.3%	2026-10-24
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? No	Held	215.44	33.99¢	62¢	$133.57	$60.32	+82.4%	2026-11-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	500	29¢	41¢	$205.00	$60.00	+41.4%	2026-11-30
Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings No	Held	334.7328	82.64¢	99.75¢	$333.90	$57.27	+20.7%	2027-01-15
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 5 above $40? Yes	Held	221.97	65.5¢	90¢	$199.77	$54.38	+37.4%	2026-10-09
Will Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon? No	Held	111.28	50.7¢	99.45¢	$110.67	$54.25	+96.2%	2026-10-16
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Held	110.49	74.57¢	98.75¢	$109.11	$52.41	+32.4%	2027-01-01
Will France win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	308.56	79.71¢	79.5¢	$245.31	$50.71	-0.3%	2027-06-14
Will there be no hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season? No	Held	221.98	75.81¢	97.95¢	$217.43	$49.14	+29.2%	2026-12-02
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No	Held	607.96	13.45¢	21.5¢	$130.71	$48.92	+59.8%	2026-10-27
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No	Held	993.57	10.94¢	12.5¢	$124.20	$48.07	+14.2%	2026-11-29
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028? No	Held	390	42.35¢	54.5¢	$212.55	$47.35	+28.7%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	180	70.17¢	70.65¢	$127.17	$47.29	+0.7%	2028-01-01
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? No	Held	205.2692	48.97¢	72¢	$147.79	$47.26	+47.0%	2027-02-01
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No	Held	560.96	18.15¢	26.5¢	$148.65	$46.83	+46.0%	2026-11-04
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 8? No	Held	170.1377	44.49¢	72¢	$122.50	$46.79	+61.8%	2026-10-08
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? No	Held	132	63.83¢	98.95¢	$130.61	$46.35	+55.0%	2026-12-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? No	Held	280	82¢	98.45¢	$275.66	$46.06	+20.1%	2026-10-09
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers	Held	526.32	52.05¢	49.75¢	$261.84	$45.63	-4.4%	2026-10-08
Will England win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	298.9232	81.08¢	80¢	$239.14	$43.07	-1.3%	2027-06-14
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 17? No	Held	141	65.14¢	95.15¢	$134.16	$42.30	+46.1%	2026-10-13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	180	73.33¢	75.5¢	$135.90	$42.18	+3.0%	2028-01-01
Will Peter Hambálek win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? No	Held	187.29	72.99¢	94.5¢	$176.99	$40.27	+29.5%	2026-10-25
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No	Held	174.15	63.99¢	63¢	$109.71	$39.33	-1.5%	2027-03-02
Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat? Yes	Held	315.015	84¢	96.3¢	$303.36	$38.75	+14.6%	2026-11-04
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	516.62	73.05¢	80.5¢	$415.88	$38.45	+10.2%	2027-06-15
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat? Yes	Held	969.43	91.93¢	95.85¢	$929.20	$37.92	+4.3%	2026-11-04
Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2026 AFC West? No	Held	107.99	65.14¢	97.95¢	$105.78	$35.42	+50.4%	2027-01-18
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	180	83.22¢	83.5¢	$150.30	$34.48	+0.3%	2028-01-01
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-07? Yes	Held	666.5254	84.51¢	99.95¢	$666.19	$33.84	+18.3%	2026-10-07
Will Italy win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? No	Held	159.61	67.44¢	88.5¢	$141.25	$33.61	+31.2%	2026-12-02
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? Yes	Held	817.87	17.96¢	21¢	$171.75	$33.59	+16.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? No	Held	536.2227	71.78¢	82.05¢	$439.97	$32.81	+14.3%	2026-10-28
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	2,091.68	95.15¢	96.7¢	$2.0K	$32.35	+1.6%	2027-01-01
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Lotte Giants	Held	402.48	20¢	28¢	$112.69	$32.17	+40.0%	2026-10-17
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? No	Held	796.22	70¢	74¢	$589.20	$31.85	+5.7%	2026-11-04
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.30% in October? No	Held	213.79	78.87¢	92.5¢	$197.76	$29.12	+17.3%	2026-11-01
Manchester City punishment announced by November 20? No	Held	150.87	69.39¢	88.5¢	$133.52	$28.82	+27.5%	2026-11-21
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	404.77	82.41¢	89.5¢	$362.27	$28.67	+8.6%	2026-11-01
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 7? No	Held	116.08	75.38¢	99.95¢	$116.02	$28.52	+32.6%	2026-10-07
Will the Philadelphia 76ers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? Yes	Held	476.12	20.67¢	24.1¢	$114.74	$27.91	+16.6%	2027-07-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? No	Held	159.78	51.87¢	69¢	$110.25	$27.37	+33.0%	2026-10-26
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? No	Held	333.6986	53.46¢	61.5¢	$205.22	$26.83	+15.0%	2026-10-26
Will the season series between the Packers and Vikings end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Held	260	39.61¢	49.5¢	$128.70	$25.70	+25.0%	2027-01-12
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No	Held	198	81.82¢	94.55¢	$187.21	$25.20	+15.6%	2028-01-01
Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	660	91.43¢	95.25¢	$628.65	$25.15	+4.2%	2026-11-03
Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	236.5731	62.2¢	62.5¢	$147.86	$24.99	+0.5%	2027-06-14
Will Rachel peak at Category 4? No	Held	111.19	76.29¢	98.65¢	$109.69	$24.85	+29.3%	2026-10-16
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	146	91.71¢	95¢	$138.70	$24.83	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes	Held	513.51	76.84¢	81.5¢	$418.51	$23.88	+6.1%	2026-11-04
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	310	87.14¢	94.5¢	$292.95	$22.80	+8.4%	2026-11-30
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes	Held	425.57	51.99¢	57.5¢	$244.70	$22.73	+10.6%	2027-05-30
Will a team from Pacific win VALORANT Champions 2026? No	Held	122.75	72.52¢	91¢	$111.70	$22.67	+25.5%	2026-10-20
Botafogo FR vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5 Over	Held	4,850	98¢	99.95¢	$4.8K	$22.57	+2.0%	2026-10-07
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes	Held	500	70¢	74.5¢	$372.50	$22.50	+6.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Labour Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No	Held	123.91	78.58¢	96.6¢	$119.70	$22.32	+22.9%	2026-10-08
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-07? Yes	Held	600	96.25¢	99.95¢	$599.70	$22.20	+3.8%	2026-10-08
Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship? Yes	Held	412.005	26.99¢	27¢	$111.24	$21.38	+0.0%	2026-11-08
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? Yes	Held	1,123.18	81.59¢	83.5¢	$937.86	$21.35	+2.3%	2026-11-04
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	150.03	75.55¢	74.5¢	$111.77	$21.32	-1.4%	2026-12-31
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? No	Held	256.07	80.24¢	88.5¢	$226.62	$21.14	+10.3%	2026-11-01
M25 Luan: Yuta Tomida vs Petr Bar Biryukov Yuta Tomida	Held	100	80¢	99.95¢	$99.95	$19.95	+24.9%	2026-10-15
T20 World Cup Asia Sub-Regional Qualifier A: Kuwait vs Thailand Thailand	Held	5,650	3.2¢	3.55¢	$200.57	$19.73	+10.9%	2026-10-15
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul? No	Held	380	94¢	99.15¢	$376.77	$19.57	+5.5%	2026-10-26
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? No	Held	208.06	73.14¢	82.5¢	$171.65	$19.46	+12.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No	Held	270	72.88¢	80¢	$216.00	$19.20	+9.8%	2026-11-04
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	140.66	91.3¢	96.4¢	$135.60	$18.95	+5.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? No	Held	170.66	72.01¢	83¢	$141.65	$18.75	+15.3%	2026-11-04
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes	Held	450	88.51¢	92.6¢	$416.70	$18.38	+4.6%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No	Held	220	77.16¢	76.5¢	$168.30	$18.38	-0.9%	2026-12-09
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	1,115.754	95.05¢	96.7¢	$1.1K	$18.37	+1.7%	2027-04-01
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026? No	Held	180	60.88¢	71¢	$127.80	$18.20	+16.6%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? Yes	Held	602	92.99¢	96¢	$577.92	$18.06	+3.2%	2026-11-04
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons Chunichi Dragons	Held	152.194	68.54¢	99.35¢	$151.20	$17.94	+45.0%	2026-10-10
Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? No	Held	220.02	73.34¢	81.5¢	$179.32	$17.93	+11.1%	2026-12-02
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? No	Held	136	68.41¢	81.5¢	$110.84	$17.80	+19.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the CO-05 House seat? Yes	Held	562.34	70.88¢	74¢	$416.13	$17.49	+4.4%	2026-11-04
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? No	Held	900.85	44.6¢	46.5¢	$418.90	$17.07	+4.2%	2026-11-29
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Yes	Held	3,528	2.91¢	3.4¢	$119.95	$17.06	+16.6%	2026-10-18
Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	228.41	88.15¢	88.15¢	$201.34	$16.75	-0.0%	2027-06-14
Will T1 win Worlds 2026? No	Held	273.14	84.2¢	84.5¢	$230.80	$16.36	+0.4%	2026-11-29
Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Held	238.3495	92.52¢	99.35¢	$236.80	$16.26	+7.4%	2026-10-09
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine? No	Held	221.9751	92.39¢	99.7¢	$221.31	$16.21	+7.9%	2026-11-30
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? No	Held	275	77.61¢	83.5¢	$229.63	$16.18	+7.6%	2026-10-21
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Held	156.7	88.91¢	98.95¢	$155.05	$15.73	+11.3%	2026-11-04
Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 16+ innings? No	Held	120.98	80¢	93¢	$112.51	$15.73	+16.3%	2026-11-16
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No	Held	164.87	57.61¢	66.5¢	$109.64	$14.65	+15.4%	2026-10-31
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? No	Held	300	90.7¢	95.25¢	$285.75	$13.65	+5.0%	2026-11-04
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes	Held	661.2787	20.75¢	22.4¢	$148.13	$13.39	+7.9%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3,862.6816	20.52¢	20.5¢	$791.85	$13.36	-0.1%	2026-11-01
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	480	87.83¢	90.5¢	$434.40	$12.80	+3.0%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No	Held	188.06	90.16¢	96.85¢	$182.14	$12.58	+7.4%	2027-01-01
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? No	Held	172.69	85.34¢	83.95¢	$144.97	$12.31	-1.6%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No	Held	193.1	85.86¢	92.2¢	$178.04	$12.23	+7.4%	2028-01-01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 8? No	Held	108.69	88.7¢	99.95¢	$108.64	$12.22	+12.7%	2026-10-08
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	152.6469	88.8¢	96.7¢	$147.61	$12.05	+8.9%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat? No	Held	350	70.14¢	73.5¢	$257.25	$11.75	+4.8%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	180	87.25¢	85.2¢	$153.36	$11.55	-2.4%	2028-01-01
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 7? No	Held	101.88	88.74¢	99.95¢	$101.83	$11.41	+12.6%	2026-10-07
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	358.82	59.36¢	62.5¢	$224.26	$11.25	+5.3%	2027-01-01
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October? No	Held	107.88	86.28¢	96.35¢	$103.94	$10.86	+11.7%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-26 House seat? No	Held	250	94.37¢	98.5¢	$246.25	$10.30	+4.4%	2026-11-04
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? No	Held	450	55.22¢	57.5¢	$258.75	$10.25	+4.1%	2026-10-31
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Held	127.7963	91.64¢	99.55¢	$127.22	$10.10	+8.6%	2027-01-01
Will a team from EMEA win VALORANT Champions 2026? No	Held	122.09	87.64¢	95.65¢	$116.78	$9.77	+9.1%	2026-10-20
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	110.0152	87.71¢	96.45¢	$106.11	$9.61	+10.0%	2026-10-30
New Mexico State vs. Florida International: O/U 49.5 Under	Held	300	96.8¢	99.95¢	$299.85	$9.45	+3.3%	2026-10-07
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 45%-50%? No	Held	120	90¢	97.85¢	$117.42	$9.42	+8.7%	2026-11-04
Will none of the listed platforms list tokenized stocks in the US by December 31, 2027? No	Held	360	82.99¢	87.9¢	$316.44	$9.25	+5.9%	2028-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	132.65	89.28¢	96.1¢	$127.48	$9.04	+7.6%	2026-11-01
Will "Primetime" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? No	Held	220	95.86¢	99.95¢	$219.89	$8.99	+4.3%	2026-10-04
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	2,491.6666	97.69¢	98.05¢	$2.4K	$8.76	+0.4%	2026-10-10
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	130.34	83.55¢	83.5¢	$108.83	$8.75	-0.1%	2026-12-31
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? No	Held	303.9487	68.65¢	71.5¢	$217.32	$8.66	+4.2%	2026-10-27
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? No	Held	321.56	64.7¢	67.4¢	$216.73	$8.66	+4.2%	2026-11-29
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	1,444.5414	13.95¢	13¢	$187.79	$8.62	-6.9%	2026-10-05
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-07? No	Held	200	95.65¢	99.95¢	$199.90	$8.60	+4.5%	2026-10-07
Will Monterrey win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? No	Held	350	92.71¢	95.1¢	$332.85	$8.35	+2.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting? No	Held	120	92¢	98.85¢	$118.62	$8.22	+7.4%	2026-10-30
Will AloisNL Win the ADC Race 2026? No	Held	227.16	83.46¢	87.05¢	$197.74	$8.15	+4.3%	2027-01-01
Will SpearShot Win the ADC Race 2026? No	Held	155.83	94.81¢	99.75¢	$155.44	$7.69	+5.2%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No	Held	188.06	95.51¢	99.6¢	$187.31	$7.69	+4.3%	2027-01-01
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 8? Yes	Held	850	99¢	99.9¢	$849.15	$7.65	+0.9%	2026-10-08
Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat? Yes	Held	150	81.44¢	86.5¢	$129.75	$7.59	+6.2%	2026-11-04
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	146	94.9¢	95.45¢	$139.36	$7.59	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the IN-01 House seat? No	Held	140	94.3¢	99.6¢	$139.44	$7.42	+5.6%	2026-11-04
Will Azzapp Win the ADC Race 2026? No	Held	110.1	92.27¢	98.95¢	$108.94	$7.34	+7.2%	2027-01-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? No	Held	111.2	83.63¢	93.4¢	$103.86	$7.29	+11.7%	2026-10-16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	161.9035	95.06¢	94.3¢	$152.68	$7.07	-0.8%	2028-01-01
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? No	Held	160	95.42¢	99.75¢	$159.60	$6.92	+4.5%	2026-10-21
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 7? No	Held	100.7412	93.32¢	99.95¢	$100.69	$6.67	+7.1%	2026-10-07
Will Rachel peak at Category 5? No	Held	111.19	92.99¢	98.75¢	$109.80	$6.40	+6.2%	2026-10-16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election? Yes	Held	250	49¢	51.5¢	$128.75	$6.25	+5.1%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	640	92.95¢	93.9¢	$600.96	$6.02	+1.0%	2026-11-04
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? No	Held	280.16	87.03¢	89.15¢	$249.76	$5.92	+2.4%	2026-10-21
W35 Wagga Wagga: Mio Mushika vs Himari Sato Himari Sato	Held	103.2849	94.49¢	99.95¢	$103.23	$5.64	+5.8%	2026-10-15
Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat? No	Held	517.75	70.44¢	71.5¢	$370.19	$5.47	+1.5%	2026-11-04
Will MrBeast's next video get between 130 and 140 million views on week 1? No	Held	473.2	98.8¢	99.95¢	$472.96	$5.42	+1.2%	2026-10-11
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes	Held	930.0035	19.57¢	17.2¢	$159.96	$5.40	-12.1%	2027-05-30
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 7? No	Held	125.95	95.75¢	99.95¢	$125.89	$5.28	+4.4%	2026-10-07
Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? No	Held	105	91.84¢	96.85¢	$101.69	$5.25	+5.4%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? No	Held	198	94.41¢	97¢	$192.06	$5.13	+2.7%	2027-07-01
Will ByteDance have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? No	Held	105	93.54¢	98.4¢	$103.32	$5.10	+5.2%	2026-11-01
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Held	200.44	83.99¢	86.5¢	$173.38	$5.01	+3.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-11 House seat? No	Held	250.48	92.81¢	94.8¢	$237.46	$4.98	+2.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party control the Maine Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	120	82¢	86¢	$103.20	$4.80	+4.9%	2026-11-04
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	178	71.94¢	74.5¢	$132.61	$4.54	+3.5%	2027-01-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000? No	Held	137.2222	91.29¢	94.5¢	$129.67	$4.39	+3.5%	2026-11-04
Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? No	Held	301.56	34.07¢	35.5¢	$107.05	$4.31	+4.2%	2026-11-29
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No	Held	211.4	93¢	95¢	$200.83	$4.23	+2.2%	2027-01-01
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? No	Held	341	93.3¢	94.5¢	$322.25	$4.07	+1.3%	2026-10-16
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? No	Held	413.3402	34.52¢	35.5¢	$146.74	$4.01	+2.8%	2026-10-27
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	2,000	94.5¢	94.7¢	$1.9K	$4.00	+0.2%	2027-04-01
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat? Yes	Held	200	86¢	88¢	$176.00	$4.00	+2.3%	2026-11-04
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000? No	Held	137.22	75.59¢	78.5¢	$107.72	$3.99	+3.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the MI-08 House seat? No	Held	167.87	91.6¢	93.95¢	$157.71	$3.94	+2.6%	2026-11-04
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? No	Held	200	97.78¢	99.75¢	$199.50	$3.92	+2.0%	2026-10-14
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat? Yes	Held	250	90¢	91.5¢	$228.75	$3.75	+1.7%	2026-11-04
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be less than 1,200,000? No	Held	117.22	96.3¢	99.3¢	$116.40	$3.51	+3.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat? Yes	Held	200	87.25¢	89¢	$178.00	$3.50	+2.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election? Yes	Held	249.01	54.67¢	56.5¢	$140.69	$3.42	+3.3%	2026-11-03
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? No	Held	136	71.02¢	73.5¢	$99.96	$3.36	+3.5%	2026-11-04
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No	Held	140	91.88¢	94.15¢	$131.81	$3.17	+2.5%	2026-11-04
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No	Held	107.6333	90.48¢	93.4¢	$100.53	$3.13	+3.2%	2027-01-31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 70%-75%? No	Held	110	91.29¢	93.85¢	$103.23	$2.81	+2.8%	2026-11-04
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	480	75.91¢	76.5¢	$367.20	$2.80	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No	Held	166	61.17¢	65.5¢	$108.73	$2.79	+7.1%	—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 50%-55%? No	Held	110.25	88.99¢	91.5¢	$100.88	$2.76	+2.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	660	64.09¢	64.5¢	$425.70	$2.70	+0.6%	2026-11-04
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027? No	Held	581.43	89.18¢	91¢	$529.10	$2.60	+2.0%	2026-12-31
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026? No	Held	117.7	95.71¢	97.9¢	$115.23	$2.58	+2.3%	2027-01-15
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat? No	Held	100	97.39¢	99.95¢	$99.95	$2.55	+2.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes	Held	1,330.15	61.22¢	61.5¢	$818.04	$2.49	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat? No	Held	131	95.04¢	96.9¢	$126.94	$2.43	+2.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	660	35.13¢	35.5¢	$234.30	$2.39	+1.0%	2026-11-04
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026? No	Held	117.7	96.64¢	98.65¢	$116.11	$2.36	+2.1%	2027-01-15
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? No	Held	549.07	65.07¢	65.5¢	$359.64	$2.36	+0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026? No	Held	228.27	98.62¢	99.65¢	$227.47	$2.34	+1.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No	Held	128.913	97.29¢	99¢	$127.62	$2.20	+1.8%	2026-10-08
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 7? No	Held	100	97.79¢	99.95¢	$99.95	$2.15	+2.2%	2026-10-07
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	94.16¢	95.95¢	$115.14	$2.14	+1.9%	2026-10-16
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,200,000 and 1,300,000? No	Held	117.22	96.42¢	98.25¢	$115.17	$2.14	+1.9%	2026-11-04
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? No	Held	1,285.1734	56.33¢	56.5¢	$726.12	$2.10	+0.3%	2026-11-29
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Kyle? No	Held	221.98	98.45¢	99.4¢	$220.65	$2.09	+1.0%	2026-11-30
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? No	Held	136	90.72¢	92.05¢	$125.19	$1.80	+1.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	160	97.67¢	98.75¢	$158.00	$1.72	+1.1%	2026-11-04
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Held	141.8759	72.34¢	73.55¢	$104.35	$1.71	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? No	Held	104.3	94.35¢	95.95¢	$100.08	$1.67	+1.7%	2026-11-04
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25? No	Held	119	97.01¢	98.4¢	$117.10	$1.64	+1.4%	2027-04-01
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	239.94	92.36¢	93.05¢	$223.26	$1.64	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026? No	Held	117.7	98.17¢	99.45¢	$117.05	$1.50	+1.3%	2027-01-15
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? No	Held	117.7	92.16¢	93.4¢	$109.93	$1.45	+1.3%	2027-01-15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	84.33¢	85.5¢	$102.60	$1.40	+1.4%	2026-10-16
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft? No	Held	284.79	99.04¢	99.5¢	$283.37	$1.30	+0.5%	2027-04-16
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft? No	Held	388.22	99.02¢	99.3¢	$385.50	$1.06	+0.3%	2027-04-16
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	142.8571	99.3¢	99.85¢	$142.64	$0.79	+0.6%	2026-12-18
Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No	Held	197.5845	98.64¢	98.95¢	$195.51	$0.60	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026? No	Held	117.7	96.67¢	97.15¢	$114.35	$0.55	+0.5%	2027-01-15
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? No	Held	159.78	98.95¢	99.3¢	$158.66	$0.54	+0.3%	2026-10-26
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	98.23¢	98.65¢	$118.38	$0.50	+0.4%	2026-10-16
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Leah? No	Held	138.58	99.62¢	99.95¢	$138.51	$0.44	+0.3%	2026-12-01
Will Orlando Sanchez win the 2026 Harris County Judge election? No	Held	120.0757	88.74¢	89.1¢	$106.99	$0.42	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Will Netherlands win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	248.41	94.91¢	94.5¢	$234.75	$0.40	-0.4%	2027-06-14
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? No	Held	284.08	99.56¢	99.7¢	$283.23	$0.40	+0.1%	2026-11-01
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 8? No	Held	179.9935	97.75¢	97.95¢	$176.30	$0.35	+0.2%	2026-10-08
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay? No	Held	148.98	99.72¢	99.95¢	$148.91	$0.33	+0.2%	2026-12-01
Will MrBeast's next video get between 120 and 130 million views on week 1? No	Held	200	99.79¢	99.95¢	$199.90	$0.30	+0.2%	2026-10-11
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Marco? No	Held	188.98	99.46¢	99.6¢	$188.22	$0.25	+0.1%	2026-12-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? No	Held	159.78	98.48¢	98.6¢	$157.54	$0.18	+0.1%	2026-10-26
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No	Held	106.06	99.69¢	99.85¢	$105.90	$0.16	+0.2%	2026-10-18
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	99.43¢	99.55¢	$119.46	$0.14	+0.1%	2026-10-16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 0%-5%? No	Held	112.29	97.83¢	97.95¢	$109.99	$0.12	+0.1%	2026-11-04
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No	Held	650.4371	96.2¢	96.35¢	$626.70	$0.11	+0.2%	2026-11-01
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	178	65.44¢	65.5¢	$116.59	$0.10	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on week 1? No	Held	200	99.89¢	99.95¢	$199.90	$0.10	+0.1%	2026-10-11
Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? No	Held	120	99.89¢	99.95¢	$119.94	$0.06	+0.1%	2026-10-13
Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? No	Held	120	99.89¢	99.95¢	$119.94	$0.06	+0.1%	2026-10-13
Will South African inflation be between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026? No	Held	100	99.41¢	99.45¢	$99.45	$0.03	+0.0%	2027-01-21
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? Yes	Held	164.62	72.99¢	73¢	$120.17	<$0.01	0.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? Yes	Held	505.3	96¢	96¢	$485.09	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? No	Held	500	86.5¢	86.5¢	$432.50	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
Will South African inflation be between 3.5% and 3.8% in 2026? No	Held	100	99.31¢	99.3¢	$99.30	-$0.02	-0.0%	2027-01-20
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Nana? No	Held	188.98	99.66¢	99.65¢	$188.32	-$0.03	-0.0%	2026-12-01
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	110.02	99.33¢	99.3¢	$109.25	-$0.04	-0.0%	2026-10-30
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	100	99.79¢	99.75¢	$99.75	-$0.05	-0.1%	2026-10-16
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%? No	Held	116	99.55¢	99.5¢	$115.42	-$0.06	-0.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? No	Held	145.62	81.9¢	81.85¢	$119.19	-$0.07	-0.1%	2026-11-04
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%? No	Held	136	99.52¢	99.45¢	$135.25	-$0.11	-0.1%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	99.79¢	99.65¢	$119.58	-$0.18	-0.2%	2026-10-16
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? No	Held	178	81.02¢	80.85¢	$143.91	-$0.31	-0.2%	2028-01-01
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? No	Held	256.23	99.83¢	99.7¢	$255.46	-$0.34	-0.1%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	99.76¢	99.45¢	$119.34	-$0.38	-0.3%	2026-10-16
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? No	Held	150	96¢	95.7¢	$143.55	-$0.45	-0.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting? No	Held	120	99.69¢	99.3¢	$119.16	-$0.48	-0.4%	2026-10-30
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? No	Held	125	95.2¢	94.8¢	$118.50	-$0.50	-0.4%	2026-10-18
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%? No	Held	136	95.38¢	95¢	$129.20	-$0.52	-0.4%	2026-11-04
Will Republicans sweep the Georgia Senate and Governor elections? No	Held	108.3333	97¢	96.5¢	$104.54	-$0.54	-0.5%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	90¢	89.5¢	$107.40	-$0.60	-0.6%	2026-10-16
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	99.68¢	99.1¢	$118.92	-$0.70	-0.6%	2026-10-16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 35% or more? No	Held	112.299	89.28¢	88.65¢	$99.55	-$0.72	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Colorado in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	120	95.16¢	94.5¢	$113.40	-$0.80	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat? No	Held	227.1875	96.76¢	96.4¢	$219.01	-$0.84	-0.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? No	Held	564.2611	95.79¢	95.65¢	$539.72	-$0.84	-0.2%	2026-11-04
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North? No	Held	112.81	93.29¢	92.5¢	$104.35	-$0.89	-0.8%	2027-01-18
Will Ethos launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	140	97.09¢	96.45¢	$135.03	-$0.90	-0.7%	2027-01-01
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? Yes	Held	776	15.62¢	15.5¢	$120.28	-$0.96	-0.8%	2026-12-31
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 8? No	Held	140	92.34¢	91.65¢	$128.31	-$0.97	-0.8%	2026-10-08
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? No	Held	222.92	89.7¢	89.25¢	$198.96	-$1.00	-0.5%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	98.89¢	98.05¢	$117.66	-$1.02	-0.9%	2026-10-16
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	185.9166	62.55¢	62¢	$115.27	-$1.03	-0.9%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028? No	Held	390	98.36¢	98.1¢	$382.59	-$1.03	-0.3%	2027-12-31
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	209.94	94.99¢	94.5¢	$198.39	-$1.05	-0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%? No	Held	136	91.29¢	90.5¢	$123.08	-$1.08	-0.9%	2026-11-04
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%? No	Held	136	97.99¢	97.1¢	$132.06	-$1.22	-0.9%	2026-11-04
Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? No	Held	250	86¢	85.5¢	$213.75	-$1.25	-0.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat? No	Held	180	70.2¢	69.5¢	$125.10	-$1.27	-1.0%	2026-11-04
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	199.94	94.98¢	94.3¢	$188.54	-$1.37	-0.7%	2027-01-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%? No	Held	136	93.52¢	92.5¢	$125.80	-$1.40	-1.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting? No	Held	160	88.27¢	87.4¢	$139.84	-$1.40	-1.0%	2026-10-30
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.7% and 4.0%? No	Held	120	98¢	96.8¢	$116.16	-$1.44	-1.2%	2026-10-21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? No	Held	159.78	89.44¢	88.5¢	$141.41	-$1.51	-1.1%	2026-10-26
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	97.71¢	96.45¢	$115.74	-$1.52	-1.3%	2026-10-16
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	239.94	71.66¢	71¢	$170.36	-$1.60	-0.9%	2027-01-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000? No	Held	120	84.83¢	83.5¢	$100.20	-$1.60	-1.6%	2026-11-04
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? No	Held	121.69	90.17¢	88.8¢	$108.06	-$1.67	-1.5%	2026-10-14
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Held	480	98.27¢	97.9¢	$469.92	-$1.80	-0.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? No	Held	369.99	82¢	81.5¢	$301.54	-$1.85	-0.6%	2026-11-04
Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	239.94	89.79¢	89¢	$213.55	-$1.90	-0.9%	2027-01-01
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 8? No	Held	180	92.65¢	91.55¢	$164.79	-$1.99	-1.2%	2026-10-08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 5%-10%? No	Held	112.29	96.23¢	94.45¢	$106.06	-$2.01	-1.9%	2026-11-04
Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No	Held	214.051	99.11¢	98.05¢	$209.88	-$2.28	-1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 35%-45%? No	Held	107.25	99.29¢	97.05¢	$104.09	-$2.41	-2.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? No	Held	260	79¢	78¢	$202.80	-$2.60	-1.3%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Held	120	95.44¢	93.25¢	$111.90	-$2.64	-2.3%	2026-10-16
Will Germany win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	208.39	98.93¢	98.2¢	$204.64	-$2.76	-0.7%	2027-06-14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 10%-15%? No	Held	112.29	97.56¢	95.1¢	$106.79	-$2.76	-2.5%	2026-11-04
Will Bijan Robinson have 1,574.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Held	340	59.35¢	58.5¢	$198.90	-$2.90	-1.4%	2027-01-27
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? No	Held	352.7	94.11¢	93.2¢	$328.72	-$3.24	-1.0%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? No	Held	159.78	95.63¢	93.6¢	$149.55	-$3.25	-2.1%	2026-10-26
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? No	Held	198	94.89¢	93.25¢	$184.63	-$3.26	-1.7%	2028-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat? Yes	Held	577	87.08¢	86.5¢	$499.11	-$3.38	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No	Held	143.91	79.59¢	77¢	$110.81	-$3.73	-3.3%	2026-10-08
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 8? No	Held	140	98.52¢	95.65¢	$133.91	-$4.03	-2.9%	2026-10-08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 75% or more? No	Held	120	99.19¢	95.65¢	$114.78	-$4.26	-3.6%	2026-11-04
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%? No	Held	136	97.79¢	94.65¢	$128.72	-$4.28	-3.2%	2026-11-04
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? No	Held	136	94.52¢	91.3¢	$124.17	-$4.39	-3.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Labour Party candidate win 50% or more of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No	Held	143.91	91.2¢	88¢	$126.64	-$4.61	-3.5%	2026-10-08
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	195.25	99.79¢	99.75¢	$194.76	-$4.89	-0.1%	2026-12-01
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West? No	Held	127.99	94.33¢	90.45¢	$115.77	-$4.98	-4.1%	2027-01-18
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? No	Held	220	81.79¢	79.5¢	$174.90	-$5.05	-2.8%	2026-11-30
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Held	176	87¢	84¢	$147.84	-$5.28	-3.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? No	Held	161.33	83.81¢	80.5¢	$129.87	-$5.34	-4.0%	2026-11-04
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 7, 2026? No	Held	160	97.04¢	93.55¢	$149.68	-$5.59	-3.6%	2026-10-08
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat? No	Held	261.27	69.16¢	67¢	$175.05	-$5.66	-3.1%	2026-11-04
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000? No	Held	120	90¢	84.3¢	$101.16	-$6.84	-6.3%	2026-11-04
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	195.25	99.69¢	98.65¢	$192.61	-$7.02	-1.1%	2026-12-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	353.82	39.55¢	37.5¢	$132.68	-$7.28	-5.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	142.1914	86.75¢	81.5¢	$115.89	-$7.47	-6.1%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat? No	Held	500	32¢	30.5¢	$152.50	-$7.50	-4.7%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T? No	Held	198	97.95¢	94.1¢	$186.32	-$7.64	-3.9%	2028-01-01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%? No	Held	136	98.49¢	92.8¢	$126.21	-$7.74	-5.8%	2026-11-04
Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat? No	Held	345.41	31.77¢	29.5¢	$101.90	-$7.84	-7.1%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No	Held	198	81.99¢	77.9¢	$154.24	-$8.12	-5.0%	2028-01-01
Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? No	Held	185.84	91.59¢	95.15¢	$176.83	-$8.30	+3.9%	2027-05-30
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No	Held	1,122.94	54.58¢	39¢	$437.95	-$8.54	-28.5%	2026-12-01
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No	Held	176.06	70.53¢	65.5¢	$115.32	-$8.86	-7.1%	2026-10-18
Will China’s CPI increase by at least 1.1% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? No	Held	140	79.77¢	72.9¢	$102.06	-$9.62	-8.6%	2026-10-14
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be 1,800,000 or more? No	Held	137.22	89.18¢	81.75¢	$112.18	-$10.21	-8.3%	2026-11-04
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? No	Held	364.45	96.35¢	93.3¢	$340.03	-$11.14	-3.2%	2026-10-27
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? No	Held	349.8	46.4¢	43¢	$150.41	-$11.91	-7.3%	2026-10-31
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No	Held	720.7346	30.26¢	17.65¢	$127.21	-$13.45	-41.7%	2026-10-28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	500	69.21¢	66.5¢	$332.50	-$13.57	-3.9%	2026-12-31
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	150.03	93.75¢	91.5¢	$137.28	-$15.27	-2.4%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No	Held	982.8257	88.8¢	87.2¢	$857.02	-$15.77	-1.8%	2026-11-29
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? No	Held	463.14	95.1¢	94.85¢	$439.29	-$16.03	-0.3%	2026-11-29
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? No	Held	540	66.51¢	63.5¢	$342.90	-$16.30	-4.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No	Held	143.91	81.29¢	69.5¢	$100.02	-$16.98	-14.5%	2026-10-08
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	275.44	96.46¢	96.85¢	$266.76	-$18.08	+0.4%	2027-01-01
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? Yes	Held	218.25	64¢	55.5¢	$121.13	-$18.55	-13.3%	2027-01-01
Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2 No	Held	363.3	50.57¢	45.3¢	$164.57	-$19.16	-10.4%	—
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	34,589.5199	0.76¢	0.35¢	$121.06	-$20.46	-54.0%	2028-11-08
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	800	72.45¢	80.5¢	$644.00	-$20.98	+11.1%	2027-06-15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	140	98.52¢	98.55¢	$137.97	-$22.13	+0.0%	2028-01-01
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? No	Held	335.69	45.43¢	38¢	$127.56	-$24.95	-16.4%	2026-10-26
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No	Held	198	79.98¢	66¢	$130.68	-$27.70	-17.5%	2028-01-01
Will the Vikings win the season series against the Packers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No	Held	260	61.46¢	49.5¢	$128.70	-$31.10	-19.5%	2027-01-12
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	180	97.27¢	96.5¢	$173.70	-$31.11	-0.8%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	165.25	97.35¢	96.6¢	$159.63	-$34.10	-0.8%	2028-01-01
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	150.03	95.07¢	91.7¢	$137.58	-$37.11	-3.5%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No	Held	513.34	81.03¢	73.7¢	$378.33	-$37.64	-9.0%	2026-11-04
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? No	Held	283.0134	81.55¢	93¢	$263.20	-$38.77	+14.0%	2026-10-10
Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2 No	Held	376.0465	67.95¢	56.5¢	$212.47	-$43.08	-16.9%	—
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026? No	Held	284.94	97.92¢	98.8¢	$281.52	-$45.50	+0.9%	2027-02-01
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	130.74	71.34¢	78.5¢	$102.63	-$45.83	+10.0%	2026-12-31
Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks	Held	199.7952	62.87¢	84.95¢	$169.73	-$48.53	+35.1%	2026-10-09
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? No	Held	671.79	50.21¢	42¢	$282.15	-$55.17	-16.4%	2026-10-24
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes	Held	884.209	77.66¢	77.5¢	$685.26	-$55.90	-0.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? Yes	Held	1,675.37	46.93¢	43.5¢	$728.79	-$57.59	-7.3%	2026-11-04
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No	Held	315.63	98.86¢	98.9¢	$312.16	-$57.60	+0.0%	2028-03-31
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026? No	Held	343.14	94.79¢	94.75¢	$325.13	-$61.73	-0.1%	2026-11-29
Will The Weeknd be the top artist for 2026? No	Held	264.94	99.81¢	99.85¢	$264.54	-$63.54	+0.0%	2027-02-01
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? No	Held	400	77.59¢	58.5¢	$234.00	-$76.40	-24.6%	2027-04-16
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes	Held	1,150	18.58¢	10.4¢	$119.60	-$78.40	-44.0%	2026-12-01
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? No	Held	352.7	56.75¢	31.85¢	$112.33	-$87.85	-43.9%	2027-01-01
Will Greece win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	248.41	97.49¢	97.45¢	$242.08	-$90.42	-0.1%	2027-06-14
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	130.03	78.69¢	85.85¢	$111.63	-$92.27	+9.1%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	155.2469	97.4¢	97.3¢	$151.06	-$93.07	-0.1%	2026-12-01
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026? No	Held	306.74	83.39¢	83.5¢	$256.13	-$96.54	+0.1%	2026-11-29
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	115.25	99.79¢	99.65¢	$114.85	-$97.50	-0.2%	2026-12-01
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	115.25	99.89¢	99.55¢	$114.73	-$97.91	-0.4%	2026-12-01
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	155.25	99.79¢	99.4¢	$154.32	-$97.95	-0.4%	2026-12-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	120.96	99.49¢	96.6¢	$116.85	-$99.80	-2.9%	2026-12-01
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026? No	Held	343.14	99.33¢	99.25¢	$340.57	-$100.84	-0.1%	2026-11-29
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No	Held	145.69	97.8¢	96.2¢	$140.15	-$101.16	-1.6%	2028-01-01
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No	Held	1,278.24	85.66¢	77.5¢	$990.64	-$104.33	-9.5%	2026-10-27
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No	Held	160	98¢	97.85¢	$156.56	-$120.81	-0.2%	2028-01-01
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No	Held	612.6919	66.88¢	89.45¢	$548.05	-$127.44	+33.7%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Held	382.61	46.19¢	32.5¢	$124.35	-$134.64	-29.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? No	Held	1,000	60¢	46.5¢	$465.00	-$135.00	-22.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No	Held	916.5	88.66¢	85.5¢	$783.61	-$135.47	-3.6%	2026-11-04
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026? No	Held	271.4645	93.15¢	94.05¢	$255.31	-$145.46	+1.0%	2027-02-01
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Held	39,816.5041	33.74¢	27.5¢	$10.9K	-$153.67	-18.5%	2026-11-04
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? No	Held	280.1672	93.2¢	96.25¢	$269.66	-$176.06	+3.3%	2027-02-01
Will Italy win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	228.41	98.09¢	98.45¢	$224.87	-$177.03	+0.4%	2027-06-14
Will Belgium win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	203.9	98.84¢	98.6¢	$201.05	-$179.20	-0.3%	2027-06-14
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027? No	Held	174.5708	82.31¢	90.5¢	$157.99	-$180.10	+9.9%	2026-12-31
Will Norway win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? No	Held	178.54	98.87¢	98.15¢	$175.24	-$180.80	-0.7%	2027-06-14
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No	Held	174.15	96.18¢	99.85¢	$173.89	-$186.37	+3.8%	2027-03-02
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins	Held	1,416.84	74.46¢	61¢	$864.27	-$190.78	-18.1%	2026-10-19
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	7,424.2855	23.28¢	15.15¢	$1.1K	-$202.99	-34.9%	2028-11-08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	440	78.63¢	23¢	$101.20	-$244.80	-70.8%	2026-11-01
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Held	119.52	97.39¢	97¢	$115.93	-$245.89	-0.4%	2026-09-14
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No	Held	5,834.6323	67.26¢	62.5¢	$3.6K	-$281.54	-7.1%	2026-10-27
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No	Held	387.73	99.69¢	99.95¢	$387.54	-$327.18	+0.3%	2026-10-11
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Ducks	Held	2,000	25¢	5¢	$100.00	-$400.00	-80.0%	2026-10-08
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026? No	Held	300.16	97.67¢	97.55¢	$292.81	-$471.52	-0.1%	2026-11-29
Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026? No	Held	283.14	98.69¢	98.65¢	$279.32	-$477.54	-0.1%	2026-11-29
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Held	5,360.23	93.8¢	95.05¢	$5.1K	-$486.11	+1.3%	2027-04-01
World Championship of Legends: England Champions vs West Indies Champions West Indies Champions	Held	2,201.2864	92.25¢	99.95¢	$2.2K	-$630.12	+8.3%	2026-10-14
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No	Held	194.6618	92.75¢	91.9¢	$178.89	-$672.71	-0.9%	2026-10-31
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins LG Twins	Held	1,813.3277	79.12¢	25.55¢	$463.31	-$1.0K	-67.7%	2026-10-12
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Held	637.401	99.47¢	99.4¢	$633.58	-$1.3K	-0.1%	2026-12-31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? No	Held	189.3181	98.39¢	99.95¢	$189.22	-$1.3K	+1.6%	2026-10-11
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	5,258.3437	49.43¢	36.5¢	$1.9K	-$1.5K	-26.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	636.67	98.91¢	98.95¢	$629.98	-$1.8K	+0.0%	2026-12-09
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No	Held	355.6	99.04¢	99.85¢	$355.07	-$2.6K	+0.8%	2027-04-01
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	750	99.69¢	99.65¢	$747.38	-$11.8K	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	1,157.9925	98.9¢	98.95¢	$1.1K	-$15.0K	+0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	611.2523	99.59¢	99.5¢	$608.20	-$28.9K	-0.1%	2027-01-01

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