Wallet positions

0xbd04…fbb0

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

364

Realized PnL

$46.0K

Win rate

38.5%

Realized edge

+4.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +4.1 pp across 364 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.4, +8.3], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

283 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:18:42 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No	Held	40,368.9521	34.81¢	88.5¢	$35.7K	$22.7K	+154.2%	2027-01-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	18,869.6704	11.24¢	0¢	$0.00	$11.2K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	10,241.0743	24.55¢	0¢	$0.00	$11.0K	-100.0%	2026-05-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	23.8845	7.7¢	0¢	$0.00	$7.2K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No	Held	7,156.62	8.46¢	79.5¢	$5.7K	$6.4K	+839.3%	2026-11-01
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	29,142.9197	2.67¢	0¢	$0.00	$6.4K	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes	Held	14,602.1782	15.5¢	15.5¢	$2.3K	$6.2K	-0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	5,233.43	15.02¢	0¢	$0.00	$5.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	17,918.11	21.03¢	0¢	$0.00	$5.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	12,909.8942	24.16¢	0¢	$0.00	$5.2K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes	Redeemable	3,687.5815	29.73¢	0¢	$0.00	$5.2K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	936.9162	27.95¢	0¢	$0.00	$5.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? No	Redeemable	57,780.8755	4.49¢	0¢	$0.00	$4.6K	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	0.11	18.93¢	100¢	$0.11	$4.5K	+427.7%	2026-06-16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? No	Redeemable	13,325.1677	36.02¢	0¢	$0.00	$4.4K	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Held	7,822.8	45.44¢	93.5¢	$7.3K	$3.8K	+105.8%	2026-11-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No	Held	8,061.43	41.26¢	82¢	$6.6K	$3.3K	+98.7%	2027-01-01
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Held	10,360.9927	67.09¢	93.5¢	$9.7K	$2.7K	+39.4%	2027-01-04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Yes	Redeemable	2,291.9701	3.17¢	0¢	$0.00	$2.7K	-100.0%	2026-05-29
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Held	107.35	31.28¢	94.5¢	$101.45	$2.3K	+202.0%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	53.43	32.58¢	0¢	$0.00	$2.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes	Redeemable	183,726.6495	3.13¢	0¢	$0.00	$2.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? No	Redeemable	80,313.4138	8.06¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.9K	-100.0%	2026-08-09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	25,619.7584	25.78¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.9K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	92,825.0977	12.16¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No	Redeemable	5,347.4151	6.2¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	0.2967	7.96¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.8K	-99.8%	2026-08-01
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	29,128.0368	17.88¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.2K	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No	Redeemable	217.6175	7.99¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,770.59	32.71¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	103.81	18.86¢	0¢	$0.00	$918.63	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,249.57	19.6¢	0¢	$0.00	$826.50	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	9,105.65	1.21¢	0¢	$0.00	$776.83	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No	Redeemable	141.5	28.88¢	0¢	$0.00	$695.81	-100.0%	2026-06-07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Yes	Redeemable	99.9927	12.79¢	0¢	$0.00	$457.16	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	247,922.77	0.74¢	0¢	$0.00	$401.95	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes	Redeemable	11,632.0517	4.18¢	0¢	$0.00	$266.24	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No	Redeemable	352.8	16.99¢	0¢	$0.00	$260.48	-100.0%	2026-07-20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes	Redeemable	1,500	6.93¢	0¢	$0.00	$240.49	-100.0%	2026-06-03
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? No	Redeemable	904.9367	27.09¢	0¢	$0.00	$191.48	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	529.87	3.09¢	0¢	$0.00	$180.70	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	2,011.88	36.99¢	42.5¢	$855.05	$110.66	+14.9%	2026-11-04
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	21.13¢	0¢	$0.00	$96.99	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes	Redeemable	5	20.91¢	0¢	$0.00	$93.47	-100.0%	2026-07-07
Will Trump say "Ping-pong" or "Ping Pong" during Chinese State Banquet? Yes	Redeemable	5	16¢	0¢	$0.00	$14.23	-100.0%	2026-05-13
Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	41.28	2.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No	Redeemable	197.4986	41.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.94	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	202.14	0.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.10	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	23.02	11.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.57	-100.0%	2026-08-08
Will Trump say "Biden" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? No	Redeemable	10	27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.78	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? Yes	Redeemable	20	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.00	-100.0%	2026-07-15
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? No	Redeemable	198	2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.96	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes	Redeemable	2,169.87	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.34	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes	Redeemable	0.6647	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.81	-99.9%	2026-05-15
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? No	Redeemable	17	28.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1? Yes	Redeemable	128.22	4.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.72	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Held	360.79	12.53¢	10.95¢	$39.51	-$5.73	-12.7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? Yes	Redeemable	37	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.74	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No	Redeemable	2,296.28	0.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.85	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Trump say "Gold" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? Yes	Redeemable	40	21.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.96	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,019.59	1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.20	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? No	Redeemable	246.1	34.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.09	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	100	43.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.98	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	37.09	38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.09	-100.0%	2026-06-30
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on July 29? Yes	Redeemable	200	8.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.80	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	1.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.08	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	972.39	2.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.78	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	635.32	3.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.50	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will Trump say "Iran" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting? No	Redeemable	90	27.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.61	-100.0%	2026-05-27
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026? No	Redeemable	426.24	4.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.84	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	40	72.07¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.23	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes	Redeemable	742.09	3.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.45	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes	Held	1,178.67	18¢	15.5¢	$182.69	-$29.47	-13.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? Yes	Redeemable	50	58.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.94	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? Yes	Redeemable	1,007.93	3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.24	-100.0%	2026-07-12
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing? Yes	Redeemable	26,012	0.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.96	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Congress" during the next White House Press Briefing? No	Redeemable	75	47.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$36.51	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during White House Correspondents Dinner? Yes	Redeemable	472.41	7.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$36.54	-100.0%	2026-07-24
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Yes	Held	72.51	63.86¢	12.5¢	$9.06	-$37.24	-80.4%	2027-01-01
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	148	24.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$37.90	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	9,866.83	0.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.43	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	8,100	0.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.66	-100.0%	2026-05-16
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	497.15	8.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.69	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Chirayu Rana sued? No	Redeemable	15,000	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.00	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? Yes	Redeemable	1,128.92	3.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.65	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Yes	Redeemable	5,000	0.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.78	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	302.87	15.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.49	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Warsh say "Fed" during swearing-in? No	Redeemable	190	25.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.75	-100.0%	2026-05-22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	5,530	0.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.48	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Yes	Redeemable	67	0.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$57.49	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	2,000	6.55¢	3.65¢	$73.00	-$58.08	-44.3%	2026-11-04
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? Yes	Redeemable	122	48.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$59.88	-100.0%	2026-06-24
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	424	14.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$63.92	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No	Redeemable	7,800	0.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.29	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? No	Redeemable	249.99	27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$67.50	-100.0%	2026-06-22
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11? Yes	Redeemable	683.35	5.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$74.78	-100.0%	2026-07-11
Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? Yes	Redeemable	171.9876	42.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$74.92	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5? Yes	Redeemable	2,178.16	3.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$76.17	-100.0%	2026-07-05
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes	Redeemable	845.03	9.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$83.04	-100.0%	2026-05-19
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	246.48	33.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$83.79	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,227.1978	5.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$84.31	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,313.12	2.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$85.00	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 3, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	659.93	13.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$86.26	-100.0%	2026-08-03
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No	Redeemable	3,948.62	2.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$88.39	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	150	25.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$90.71	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	808.54	11.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$95.46	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? Yes	Redeemable	995	9.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$96.13	-100.0%	2026-07-23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026? No	Redeemable	9,959	0.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$96.44	-100.0%	2026-06-21
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No	Redeemable	630.01	15.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$98.52	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? No	Redeemable	500	19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$98.85	-100.0%	2026-05-25
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? No	Redeemable	1,100	8.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.89	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	3,257	3.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.97	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Trump or Melania say "Ballroom" at the Military Mothers event? No	Redeemable	200	50¢	0¢	$0.00	-$102.00	-100.0%	2026-05-06
Will Bernie say "Bernie" during Fighting Oligarchy? No	Redeemable	300	33.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$102.35	-100.0%	2026-05-25
Will the White House Press Secretary say "President" 30+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? No	Redeemable	299	33.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$102.35	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	700	14.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$102.42	-100.0%	2026-03-14
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? No	Redeemable	1,000	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$104.50	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3? Yes	Redeemable	2,939.56	3.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$106.06	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4? Yes	Redeemable	2,445.39	4.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$114.39	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? Yes	Redeemable	1,001.16	11.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$119.60	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Yes	Redeemable	457	7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$119.71	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	4,111	3.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$131.55	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16? Yes	Redeemable	958.13	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$134.14	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	13,584.43	1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$135.84	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Held	519.76	46.88¢	18.5¢	$96.16	-$140.82	-60.5%	2027-01-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? No	Redeemable	1,771.2918	7.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.94	-100.0%	2026-07-12
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	328.49	46.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$141.99	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,087.37	13.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.35	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Trump or Melania say "Child" 5+ times at the Military Mothers event? No	Redeemable	508.3333	28.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$147.60	-100.0%	2026-05-06
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	650.26	23.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$152.81	-100.0%	2026-08-15
Iran leadership change by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	4,000	3.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$154.56	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? No	Redeemable	624.68	25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$156.17	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes	Redeemable	6,204.78	2.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$170.07	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	11,171.15	1.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$170.46	-100.0%	2026-07-11
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No	Redeemable	1,191.9521	21.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$171.84	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,500	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$180.08	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	2,064.07	8.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$183.83	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? No	Redeemable	6,174.53	3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$185.24	-100.0%	2026-07-18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10,000	0.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$199.21	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No	Redeemable	400	50.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$202.90	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? Yes	Redeemable	2,093.03	10.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$217.48	-100.0%	2026-07-13
Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner? Yes	Redeemable	755.46	27.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$217.62	-100.0%	2026-07-24
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,670.7391	5.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$219.64	-100.0%	2026-06-14
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,880.64	7.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$220.99	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	36.24¢	13.5¢	$135.00	-$227.45	-62.8%	2027-01-01
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,585.18	14.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$231.21	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6? Yes	Redeemable	4,978.46	4.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$238.76	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? No	Redeemable	8,266.44	2.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$238.81	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Yes	Redeemable	500	50¢	0¢	$0.00	-$250.00	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,500	16.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$259.03	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Iran full airspace closure by July 24? Yes	Redeemable	1,722.7158	15.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$267.95	-100.0%	2026-07-25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? No	Redeemable	495.54	54.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$275.26	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? No	Redeemable	4,133.93	7.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$302.44	-100.0%	2026-07-22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	8,428.95	3.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$303.02	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? Yes	Redeemable	2,678.43	11.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$303.26	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,119.43	14.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$303.45	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? No	Redeemable	21,338.81	1.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$310.72	-100.0%	2026-06-18
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	960.99	32.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$312.82	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	8,117.83	3.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$321.33	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8? Yes	Redeemable	2,908.45	11.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$326.44	-100.0%	2026-07-08
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? Yes	Redeemable	2,200	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$330.00	-100.0%	2026-07-24
Will Trump say "Interfere" or "Interference" during Speech to the Nation? No	Redeemable	1,086	29.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$333.28	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,442.83	22.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$333.49	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? No	Redeemable	1,069.579	31.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$335.30	-100.0%	2026-07-15
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No	Redeemable	2,492.1	13.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$336.49	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Yes	Redeemable	2,753.49	12.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$336.49	-100.0%	2026-06-12
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	6,000	5.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$342.55	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,864.3046	6.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$350.27	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? No	Redeemable	5,314.28	6.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$361.11	-100.0%	2026-07-28
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? No	Redeemable	1,070.16	34.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$372.12	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No	Redeemable	5,570.46	17.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$377.82	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? No	Redeemable	830.74	50.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$428.97	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes	Redeemable	3,303.8827	14.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$463.13	-100.0%	2026-06-18
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Yes	Redeemable	1,699.99	26.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$464.85	-100.0%	2026-05-16
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,317.23	14.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$472.36	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Yes	Redeemable	14,900	2.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$478.66	-100.0%	2026-05-27
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? Yes	Redeemable	7,735.81	6.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$482.63	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? No	Redeemable	810.8695	58.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$483.11	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,360.99	14.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$496.17	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	7,211.48	13.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$498.11	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? No	Redeemable	18,203.09	2.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$508.30	-100.0%	2026-07-26
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? No	Redeemable	30,080.97	1.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$519.95	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? No	Redeemable	2,931.29	17.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$533.53	-100.0%	2026-06-23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No	Redeemable	1,592.97	47.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$561.25	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Will Trump say "Russia" during Speech to the Nation? No	Redeemable	901.82	61.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$563.48	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Redeemable	17,630	3.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$568.60	-100.0%	2026-06-02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No	Redeemable	8,457.09	10.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$570.49	-100.0%	2026-06-21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,021.82	20.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$624.82	-100.0%	2026-07-18
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? Yes	Redeemable	2,927.8029	18.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$660.68	-100.0%	2026-07-11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Yes	Redeemable	15,414.48	4.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$666.94	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,691.96	18.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$688.43	-100.0%	2026-06-24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No	Redeemable	2,682.58	25.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$702.09	-100.0%	2026-07-29
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? Yes	Redeemable	14,229.3521	5.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$724.59	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? No	Redeemable	4,576.15	15.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$730.68	-100.0%	2026-06-25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? No	Redeemable	4,000	18.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$755.27	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	15,733.63	4.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$758.47	-100.0%	2026-06-15
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? Yes	Redeemable	16,647.76	4.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$765.20	-100.0%	2026-07-18
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No	Redeemable	4,512.61	16.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$766.21	-100.0%	2026-06-22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,631.16	21.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$779.65	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks? No	Redeemable	2,953.7666	25.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$786.66	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,406.68	24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$817.60	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No	Redeemable	43,989.6589	2.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$826.35	-100.0%	—
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Held	6,070.56	25.2¢	11.5¢	$698.11	-$831.70	-54.4%	2027-01-01
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	6,954.19	11.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$831.79	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No	Redeemable	1,730.21	48.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$835.15	-100.0%	2026-08-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,611.67	18.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$838.61	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes	Redeemable	5,836.77	15.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$903.03	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No	Redeemable	13,500.51	6.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$943.11	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Yes	Redeemable	34,391.42	2.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$960.86	-100.0%	2026-06-11
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Yes	Redeemable	4,389.78	22.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$967.38	-100.0%	2026-06-11
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	5,108	19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$970.52	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	17,894.34	5.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$989.66	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes	Redeemable	43,600	2.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-05-27
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes	Redeemable	541.01	37.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? No	Redeemable	6,500	15.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-07-25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	4,419.6657	23.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Speech to the Nation? No	Redeemable	2,662.5999	39.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	26,559.2884	19.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	11,229.0937	13.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes	Redeemable	27,906.76	4.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	5,000	28.75¢	5.5¢	$275.00	-$1.2K	-80.9%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	8,150.98	14.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.2K	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No	Redeemable	3,370.7195	31.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	18,243.04	6.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	7,123.73	18.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	90,679.07	1.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No	Redeemable	5,380.203	33.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-16
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.25	75¢	100¢	$0.25	-$1.4K	+33.3%	2026-09-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	5,508.69	30.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-10-31
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No	Redeemable	2,666	52.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	14,434	8.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	19,445.15	7.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? No	Redeemable	3,726.0609	39.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,535	41.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	6,258.3	24.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No	Redeemable	3,692.22	41.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-06-18
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Yes	Redeemable	3,020.9634	48.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-06-09
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No	Redeemable	6,962.11	24.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	12,438.3717	17.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No	Redeemable	20,000	8.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	—
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No	Redeemable	4,119.46	41.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	2026-06-19
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? No	Redeemable	83,500	2.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-08-12
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	300,742.82	0.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.0K	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,635.3068	54.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? No	Redeemable	40,096.81	5.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.2K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? No	Redeemable	3,000	82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.5K	-100.0%	2026-08-17
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	31,701.1607	29.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	24,380.58	11.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.9K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	18,157.4698	18.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.9K	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	12,505	24.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.1K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	62,153.46	5.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Yes	Redeemable	2,216.292	19.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.3K	-100.0%	—
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? No	Redeemable	7,253.04	47.25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-08
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Yes	Redeemable	95,274.6	3.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.5K	-100.0%	2026-06-10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	42,673.9443	11.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes	Redeemable	97,485.7995	4.04¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2026-05-25
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9,772.98	40.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	37,967.12	10.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.0K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	15,941	25.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.2K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes	Redeemable	51,754.4251	8.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	38,255.38	11.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.3K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Yes	Redeemable	9,748.9595	47.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.5K	-100.0%	2026-05-22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	15,761.2949	36.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.5K	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Yes	Redeemable	33,749.95	14.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.8K	-100.0%	2026-05-21
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No	Redeemable	27,614.073	20.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.0K	-100.0%	2026-06-08
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	39,393.25	13.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.2K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes	Held	12,087.25	56.15¢	12.5¢	$1.5K	-$5.3K	-77.7%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	50,959.1319	3.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.3K	-100.0%	2026-08-16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes	Redeemable	92,730.2895	10.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.6K	-100.0%	2026-05-29
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes	Redeemable	41,128.96	13.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? No	Redeemable	56,753.2388	14.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.2K	-100.0%	2026-08-15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No	Redeemable	48,959.5044	25.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.6K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No	Redeemable	28,020.5362	23.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.7K	-100.0%	2026-06-22
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	37,979.52	22.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.1K	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? Yes	Redeemable	69,844.19	11.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.2K	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	73,552.51	11.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? No	Redeemable	23,595.5377	37.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.9K	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes	Redeemable	18,573.5255	49.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.0K	-100.0%	2026-08-20
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No	Redeemable	138,132.1471	7.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.0K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	37,922.3317	34.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.5K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	234,913.6855	9.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No	Redeemable	114,506.6664	16.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.7K	-100.0%	2026-06-14
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No	Redeemable	84,621.0977	28.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$42.5K	-100.0%	2026-07-31

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