Wallet ledger

0xb99b…b581

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$1.2K

Win rate

39%

Realized edge

-0.012

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.012 across 23 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.12, +0.15]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (30 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24? Yes	Open	1,871	1¢	$618	+3305%	2026-08-24
Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? Yes	Open	400	5¢	$226	+1130%	2026-08-31
Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan? Yes	Open	571	9¢	$137	+269%	2026-09-02
Will Hong Kong have 700mm or more of precipitation in August? No	Open	181	49¢	$87	+98%	2026-08-31
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 21? Yes	Open	263	68¢	$85	+48%	2026-08-21
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 21? No	Open	334	75¢	$82	+32%	2026-08-21
Will Marcus Rashford join Barcelona? No	Open	437	80¢	$73	+21%	2026-09-02
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in August? Yes	Open	422	4¢	$65	+387%	2026-08-31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22? Yes	Open	68	32¢	$46	+212%	2026-08-22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23? Yes	Open	135	66¢	$46	+51%	2026-08-23
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool? Yes	Open	124	40¢	$43	+87%	2026-09-02
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21? No	Open	135	70¢	$40	+43%	2026-08-21
Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027? No	Open	167	72¢	$27	+23%	2026-12-31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21? Yes	Open	139	81¢	$26	+23%	2026-08-21
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 23? Yes	Open	95	69¢	$26	+40%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22? No	Open	85	71¢	$25	+41%	2026-08-22
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China? Yes	Open	251	78¢	$24	+12%	2026-09-01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 24? Yes	Open	96	71¢	$19	+28%	2026-08-24
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22? No	Open	85	84¢	$14	+19%	2026-08-22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 23? No	Open	81	89¢	$9	+12%	2026-08-23
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes	Open	250	14¢	$8	+24%	2026-09-02
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? Yes	Open	20	55¢	$8	+69%	2026-09-02
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in August? Yes	Open	58	5¢	$5	+160%	2026-08-31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24? No	Open	135	85¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	327	68¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-16
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $125 in August? Yes	Open	43	9¢	-$3	-71%	2026-09-01
Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 32°C or higher on August 24? Yes	Open	37	81¢	-$3	-9%	2026-08-24
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 24? Yes	Open	53	74¢	-$8	-20%	2026-08-24
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	2,000	1¢	-$8	-36%	2026-10-31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22? Yes	Open	62	18¢	-$11	-100%	2026-08-22

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