Wallet ledger

0xb4f2…e5fa

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

357

Realized PnL

$27.8K

Win rate

75%

Realized edge

+0.026

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.026 across 357 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.02, +0.07]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (35 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No	Open	36,101	7¢	$23.5K	+942%	2027-01-01
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No	Open	15,323	33¢	$8.5K	+167%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No	Open	7,638	27¢	$5.4K	+265%	2026-09-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No	Open	8,625	41¢	$2.7K	+76%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Open	21,658	18¢	$2.2K	+54%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	10,000	87¢	$1.3K	+15%	2026-09-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? No	Open	6,300	85¢	$847	+16%	2026-09-15
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Open	2,625	56¢	$748	+51%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No	Open	5,711	88¢	$606	+12%	2026-09-01
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? No	Open	6,166	84¢	$415	+8%	2026-12-31
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No	Open	2,086	65¢	$362	+27%	2026-12-31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	20,000	91¢	$300	+2%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No	Open	7,769	93¢	$275	+4%	2026-09-01
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	2,707	73¢	$267	+14%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? No	Open	10,579	66¢	$247	+4%	2026-10-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Open	15,000	92¢	$225	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026? No	Open	448	52¢	$209	+90%	2026-09-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Yes	Open	971	67¢	$200	+31%	2026-09-30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes	Open	560	78¢	$107	+25%	2026-08-31
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	664	78¢	$92	+18%	2026-12-31
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? No	Open	432	61¢	$63	+24%	2027-01-01
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? No	Open	1,106	75¢	$53	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No	Open	258	73¢	$47	+25%	2026-12-31
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No	Open	55	40¢	$27	+121%	2025-10-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No	Open	813	93¢	$19	+2%	2026-09-01
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? No	Open	398	68¢	$18	+7%	2027-01-01
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Open	96	66¢	$18	+28%	2026-01-31
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No	Open	366	80¢	$17	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	881	82¢	$15	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	55	47¢	$14	+56%	2026-12-31
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? No	Open	99	84¢	$4	+5%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? No	Open	97	93¢	-$10	-11%	2026-09-15
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No	Open	200	38¢	-$12	-16%	2029-01-20
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	147	57¢	-$70	-83%	2026-12-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Open	4,010	67¢	-$117	-4%	2026-11-01

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