Wallet positions

0xb17d…59ae

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

314

Realized PnL

-$4.8K

Win rate

66.2%

Realized edge

-2.9 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -2.9 pp across 314 resolved positions, 95% CI [-6.3, +0.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-23 14:33:14 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,732.8033	31.36¢	38.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+22.7%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No	Held	900.008	89.11¢	93.5¢	$841.51	$298.25	+4.9%	2026-11-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	1,200.0044	82.87¢	83.5¢	$1.0K	$266.55	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Held	600.0097	92.99¢	98.05¢	$588.31	$233.88	+5.4%	2027-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	40	54¢	54.5¢	$21.80	$184.66	+0.9%	2027-01-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Held	400	76.87¢	91.5¢	$366.00	$164.00	+19.0%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	600.0001	80.33¢	78.5¢	$471.00	$155.00	-2.3%	2026-10-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No	Held	1,199.995	85.08¢	94.5¢	$1.1K	$153.80	+11.1%	2026-12-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Held	300	78.33¢	91.15¢	$273.45	$146.45	+16.4%	2027-01-01
Kash Patel out by December 31? No	Held	408.6869	69.03¢	82.5¢	$337.17	$137.05	+19.5%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Held	600.0011	93.33¢	96.45¢	$578.70	$136.45	+3.3%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Held	600	76.39¢	85.5¢	$513.00	$131.40	+11.9%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No	Held	1,040.9621	79.02¢	84.5¢	$879.61	$121.30	+6.9%	2027-01-01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Held	644.66	73.57¢	90.5¢	$583.42	$118.78	+23.0%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	128.715	14¢	20.5¢	$26.39	$117.68	+46.4%	2027-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	506.4679	69.15¢	81¢	$410.24	$105.34	+17.1%	2027-01-01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No	Held	200.0028	83.82¢	95.95¢	$191.90	$104.81	+14.5%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Held	500	41¢	61¢	$305.00	$100.00	+48.8%	2028-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,000	8.5¢	13.5¢	$270.00	$100.00	+58.8%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes	Held	1,149.9729	32.56¢	41¢	$471.49	$81.00	+25.9%	2027-01-01
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Held	199.9981	51¢	91.5¢	$183.00	$81.00	+79.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Held	600	88.5¢	94.5¢	$567.00	$75.00	+6.8%	2027-01-01
Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	10¢	84.9¢	$84.90	$74.90	+749.0%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,973.6842	12.36¢	12.5¢	$246.71	$73.71	+1.1%	2026-12-31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? No	Held	200	40.49¢	76.5¢	$153.00	$72.00	+88.9%	2027-01-01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Held	100.0117	90.74¢	93.5¢	$93.51	$71.45	+3.0%	2027-01-01
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Held	185.4369	55.26¢	83.5¢	$154.84	$53.71	+51.1%	2026-09-20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	300	68.33¢	91.5¢	$274.50	$52.50	+33.9%	2026-10-29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	400	67¢	71.5¢	$286.00	$52.00	+6.7%	2026-12-31
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? No	Held	438.1296	95.26¢	95.75¢	$419.51	$50.43	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Held	100	24¢	74¢	$74.00	$50.00	+208.3%	2026-09-07
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No	Held	149.9948	52¢	84.5¢	$126.75	$48.75	+62.5%	2026-10-31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No	Held	600.008	96.13¢	95.55¢	$573.31	$46.06	-0.6%	2027-01-01
Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Held	200	74.74¢	97.55¢	$195.10	$45.60	+30.5%	2026-10-26
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	900.0031	87.11¢	82¢	$738.00	$45.55	-5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	180	17.22¢	41.55¢	$74.79	$43.79	+141.3%	2027-01-01
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Held	120.33	66.74¢	99.95¢	$120.27	$39.96	+49.8%	2027-01-08
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Held	200	92.5¢	96.35¢	$192.70	$39.30	+4.2%	2027-01-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Held	416.3425	72.52¢	79.5¢	$330.99	$38.08	+9.6%	2027-01-01
Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? No	Held	180.44	76.09¢	97.2¢	$175.39	$37.97	+27.7%	2026-09-14
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes	Held	149.99	74¢	99.05¢	$148.56	$37.57	+33.9%	2027-01-05
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No	Held	200	74¢	92.5¢	$185.00	$37.00	+25.0%	2027-01-01
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes	Held	100	15¢	51¢	$51.00	$36.00	+240.0%	2027-07-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes	Held	150	73.66¢	97.05¢	$145.57	$35.08	+31.7%	2026-11-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes	Held	888.5552	81.18¢	83.5¢	$741.94	$34.56	+2.8%	2026-10-31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	80¢	97.2¢	$194.40	$34.40	+21.5%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	200	66¢	83¢	$166.00	$34.00	+25.8%	2027-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No	Held	269.8	81.49¢	94¢	$253.61	$33.74	+15.3%	2026-10-31
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No	Held	223.83	71.57¢	78.5¢	$175.71	$32.75	+9.7%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No	Held	400	91.5¢	99.65¢	$398.60	$32.60	+8.9%	2026-11-01
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No	Held	20.0066	68.99¢	99.6¢	$19.93	$32.12	+44.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	100	54.57¢	76¢	$76.00	$31.86	+39.3%	2026-11-03
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? No	Held	199.9975	52.99¢	68.5¢	$137.00	$31.00	+29.2%	2027-01-02
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	250	43.58¢	55.95¢	$139.88	$30.93	+28.4%	2028-01-01
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No	Held	200	81¢	96.45¢	$192.90	$30.90	+19.1%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Held	200	82.5¢	96.35¢	$192.70	$30.70	+16.8%	2027-01-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	150	68.53¢	88.9¢	$133.35	$30.55	+29.7%	2026-10-31
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	255	60.39¢	72¢	$183.60	$29.60	+19.2%	2026-10-25
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Held	220	74.45¢	87.5¢	$192.50	$28.70	+17.5%	2026-10-26
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No	Held	250	86.6¢	97.75¢	$244.38	$27.88	+12.9%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No	Held	100	47¢	74.5¢	$74.50	$27.50	+58.5%	2027-01-05
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? No	Held	150	78¢	96.3¢	$144.45	$27.45	+23.5%	2026-11-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Held	269.8	67.61¢	77.5¢	$209.09	$26.67	+14.6%	2026-11-04
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	80	50.25¢	82¢	$65.60	$25.40	+63.2%	2026-10-28
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	260	75.23¢	85¢	$221.00	$25.39	+13.0%	2027-01-21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? No	Held	120	66.33¢	86.5¢	$103.80	$24.20	+30.4%	2027-01-01
US recession by end of 2026? No	Held	200	81¢	92.5¢	$185.00	$23.00	+14.2%	2027-01-31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Held	199.9988	83¢	94.5¢	$189.00	$23.00	+13.9%	2027-01-01
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No	Held	100	64¢	86.5¢	$86.50	$22.50	+35.2%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No	Held	50	35¢	78.5¢	$39.25	$21.75	+124.3%	—
Will Richard Vereš be the next Mayor of Ostrava? Yes	Held	60	59.33¢	95.5¢	$57.30	$21.70	+61.0%	2026-10-10
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? No	Held	99.9976	75.79¢	97.2¢	$97.20	$21.40	+28.2%	2026-11-01
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	50	57¢	99.75¢	$49.88	$21.38	+75.0%	2027-07-01
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No	Held	100	78¢	98.8¢	$98.80	$20.80	+26.7%	2026-11-01
Will Jozef Viskupič win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	60	60¢	93.5¢	$56.10	$20.10	+55.8%	2026-10-25
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Held	399.9972	88.49¢	93.5¢	$374.00	$20.00	+5.6%	2026-12-01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No	Held	400	86.5¢	91.5¢	$366.00	$20.00	+5.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40	45.5¢	94.95¢	$37.98	$19.78	+108.7%	2026-11-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? Yes	Held	260	90.61¢	98.15¢	$255.19	$19.59	+8.3%	2026-10-23
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	60	52¢	84¢	$50.40	$19.20	+61.5%	2026-10-28
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	60	64¢	95.75¢	$57.45	$19.05	+49.6%	2026-10-31
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Held	200	86¢	95.5¢	$191.00	$19.00	+11.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	200	83¢	92.5¢	$185.00	$19.00	+11.4%	2026-10-29
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	77¢	86.5¢	$173.00	$19.00	+12.3%	2027-01-01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No	Held	240	63.66¢	71.5¢	$171.60	$18.80	+12.3%	2027-08-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No	Held	115.4	15.73¢	32¢	$36.93	$18.77	+103.4%	2026-12-01
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No	Held	200	86.44¢	95.8¢	$191.60	$18.70	+10.8%	2027-01-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No	Held	220	70.09¢	78.5¢	$172.70	$18.50	+12.0%	2026-12-01
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? No	Held	83.56	74.96¢	96.95¢	$81.01	$18.37	+29.3%	2027-01-15
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	199.9987	90.79¢	99.95¢	$199.90	$18.30	+10.1%	2026-10-27
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No	Held	400	91¢	95.55¢	$382.20	$18.20	+5.0%	2027-01-01
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten? Yes	Held	160	83.87¢	95.25¢	$152.40	$18.20	+13.6%	2026-09-14
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Held	200.0059	75.49¢	81.65¢	$163.30	$18.10	+8.1%	2026-09-14
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No	Held	179.9975	85.05¢	95.05¢	$171.09	$17.99	+11.8%	2026-12-31
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	269.99	87.31¢	93.7¢	$252.98	$17.23	+7.3%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No	Held	40	33¢	76¢	$30.40	$17.20	+130.3%	2027-01-01
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No	Held	170	67.17¢	77¢	$130.90	$16.70	+14.6%	2027-01-01
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes	Held	50	64¢	97.3¢	$48.65	$16.65	+52.0%	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Held	400	93.7¢	97.85¢	$391.40	$16.60	+4.4%	2027-01-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	80	79.24¢	99.9¢	$79.92	$16.52	+26.1%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of October 2026? No	Held	39.9958	57.49¢	98.25¢	$39.30	$16.30	+70.9%	2026-10-31
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes	Held	100	27¢	43¢	$43.00	$16.00	+59.3%	2027-01-01
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? No	Held	20	16.1¢	95.95¢	$19.19	$15.97	+496.0%	2027-06-07
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	89¢	96.9¢	$193.80	$15.80	+8.9%	2027-01-01
USMCA extended in 2026? No	Held	49.9952	62¢	93.5¢	$46.75	$15.75	+50.8%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No	Held	235.01	74.72¢	78¢	$183.31	$15.70	+4.4%	2026-12-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? No	Held	80	73¢	92.5¢	$74.00	$15.60	+26.7%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Held	700	90.28¢	92.5¢	$647.50	$15.50	+2.5%	2026-11-04
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? Yes	Held	100	62¢	77.5¢	$77.50	$15.50	+25.0%	2027-06-07
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No	Held	400	92.5¢	96.3¢	$385.20	$15.20	+4.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	200	83¢	90.5¢	$181.00	$15.00	+9.0%	2026-11-03
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? No	Held	50	60¢	90¢	$45.00	$15.00	+50.0%	2026-11-01
Will Lukáš Hájek be the next Mayor of Liberec? Yes	Held	40	54¢	90.5¢	$36.20	$14.60	+67.6%	2026-10-10
Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria? Yes	Held	100	64¢	78¢	$78.00	$14.00	+21.9%	2026-11-29
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No	Held	200	90¢	96.85¢	$193.70	$13.70	+7.6%	2027-01-01
Will Dagmar Škodová Parmová be the next Mayor of České Budějovice? Yes	Held	40	35¢	69¢	$27.60	$13.60	+97.1%	2027-06-30
Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship? No	Held	59.1607	62¢	84.5¢	$49.99	$13.31	+36.3%	2026-11-08
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	60	60.33¢	82.5¢	$49.50	$13.30	+36.7%	2026-11-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No	Held	240	92.58¢	97.75¢	$234.60	$12.40	+5.6%	2026-11-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No	Held	200	85¢	92.5¢	$185.00	$12.20	+8.8%	2026-10-31
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? No	Held	40	63.4¢	93.8¢	$37.52	$12.16	+47.9%	2027-06-07
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No	Held	300	83.99¢	88¢	$264.00	$12.00	+4.8%	2027-04-01
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	74¢	86¢	$86.00	$12.00	+16.2%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	80¢	91.5¢	$91.50	$11.50	+14.4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	99.99	17¢	28.5¢	$28.50	$11.50	+67.6%	2028-01-01
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? Yes	Held	50	58¢	80.5¢	$40.25	$11.25	+38.8%	2027-01-01
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? No	Held	40	34¢	62¢	$24.80	$11.20	+82.4%	2026-11-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	60	81¢	99.2¢	$59.52	$10.92	+22.5%	2026-11-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes	Held	150	71.81¢	79¢	$118.50	$10.78	+10.0%	2027-01-01
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? No	Held	20	43¢	95.1¢	$19.02	$10.42	+121.2%	2027-03-31
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? No	Held	300	96¢	99.45¢	$298.35	$10.35	+3.6%	2026-11-04
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	49.99	68¢	88.7¢	$44.34	$10.35	+30.4%	2026-11-01
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? Yes	Held	29.1358	72.68¢	93.65¢	$27.29	$10.12	+28.8%	2026-09-14
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31? No	Held	50	79¢	99.2¢	$49.60	$10.10	+25.6%	2027-01-05
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Held	300	96.33¢	99.65¢	$298.95	$9.95	+3.4%	2027-01-01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No	Held	75.3344	82¢	94.95¢	$71.53	$9.76	+15.8%	2027-01-01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	200	81.3¢	86.05¢	$172.10	$9.50	+5.8%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	66.1¢	89.65¢	$35.86	$9.42	+35.6%	2026-11-01
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026? Yes	Held	40	71¢	94¢	$37.60	$9.20	+32.4%	2026-10-27
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No	Held	162.8537	85.24¢	90.5¢	$147.38	$8.56	+6.2%	2027-01-01
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Held	300	94.83¢	97.65¢	$292.95	$8.45	+3.0%	2027-01-01
Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? No	Held	49.999	78¢	94.75¢	$47.37	$8.37	+21.5%	2027-01-02
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? No	Held	31.5555	64¢	89.5¢	$28.24	$8.05	+39.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Held	300	68.83¢	71.5¢	$214.50	$8.00	+3.9%	2026-11-04
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No	Held	200	92¢	96¢	$192.00	$8.00	+4.3%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Held	200	91¢	95¢	$190.00	$8.00	+4.4%	2027-04-01
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Held	249.9909	89.8¢	93¢	$232.49	$8.00	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	99.9966	70¢	78¢	$78.00	$8.00	+11.4%	2026-10-31
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	199.9923	56¢	60¢	$120.00	$8.00	+7.1%	2027-01-01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No	Held	237.46	93.84¢	97.2¢	$230.81	$7.97	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No	Held	100	90¢	97.55¢	$97.55	$7.55	+8.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	300	64¢	66.5¢	$199.50	$7.50	+3.9%	2026-11-04
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	300	91.16¢	93.65¢	$280.95	$7.45	+2.7%	2026-10-27
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	100	91¢	98.25¢	$98.25	$7.25	+8.0%	2026-10-30
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? No	Held	147.5022	92.95¢	97.85¢	$144.33	$7.22	+5.3%	2027-01-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? No	Held	50	85¢	99.35¢	$49.67	$7.17	+16.9%	2026-11-01
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No	Held	972.0624	68.26¢	67.2¢	$653.23	$7.11	-1.6%	2027-01-01
Pacifica FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Held	31.5789	62¢	84.5¢	$26.68	$7.11	+36.3%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	60	66.66¢	78.5¢	$47.10	$7.10	+17.8%	2027-01-01
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No	Held	250	76.2¢	79¢	$197.50	$7.00	+3.7%	2027-01-01
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? No	Held	100	89¢	95.95¢	$95.95	$6.95	+7.8%	2027-01-01
Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	80	87.8¢	96.4¢	$77.12	$6.88	+9.8%	2026-10-25
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? No	Held	80	65¢	73.5¢	$58.80	$6.80	+13.1%	2027-01-01
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? No	Held	100	84¢	90.5¢	$90.50	$6.50	+7.7%	2026-12-01
Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	40	67¢	83¢	$33.20	$6.40	+23.9%	2027-01-01
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? No	Held	20	68¢	99.85¢	$19.97	$6.37	+46.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	100	90.8¢	97.1¢	$97.10	$6.30	+6.9%	2026-11-04
Will Eva Nemčovská win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election? Yes	Held	60	46¢	56.5¢	$33.90	$6.30	+22.8%	2026-10-25
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	20	53¢	84.5¢	$16.90	$6.30	+59.4%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No	Held	37.7666	89¢	93.5¢	$35.31	$6.06	+5.1%	2026-12-01
Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election? Yes	Held	29.53	50¢	70.5¢	$20.82	$6.05	+41.0%	2026-10-25
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? No	Held	100	90¢	96.05¢	$96.05	$6.05	+6.7%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	60	86.3¢	96.3¢	$57.78	$6.00	+11.6%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40	75.2¢	90¢	$36.00	$5.92	+19.7%	2026-10-31
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	94¢	96.95¢	$193.90	$5.90	+3.1%	2027-01-01
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? No	Held	72.89	90¢	98.05¢	$71.47	$5.87	+8.9%	2027-01-01
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	50	86¢	97.5¢	$48.75	$5.75	+13.4%	2027-07-01
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No	Held	49.9855	73¢	84.5¢	$42.24	$5.75	+15.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	100	87¢	92.5¢	$92.50	$5.50	+6.3%	2026-11-04
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No	Held	100	80¢	85.5¢	$85.50	$5.50	+6.9%	2027-05-30
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	76¢	81.5¢	$81.50	$5.50	+7.2%	2027-01-01
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No	Held	100	58¢	63.5¢	$63.50	$5.50	+9.5%	2028-01-01
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? No	Held	60	50¢	59¢	$35.40	$5.40	+18.0%	2026-11-04
Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Yes	Held	40	23.3¢	36.8¢	$14.72	$5.40	+57.9%	2027-06-07
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	50	67¢	77.5¢	$38.75	$5.25	+15.7%	2026-09-14
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No	Held	140	79.28¢	83¢	$116.20	$5.20	+4.7%	2027-01-01
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? No	Held	60	87¢	95.65¢	$57.39	$5.19	+9.9%	2026-11-01
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31? No	Held	13.83	47¢	84.5¢	$11.69	$5.19	+79.8%	2027-01-01
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No	Held	100	94¢	99.15¢	$99.15	$5.15	+5.5%	2026-12-31
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No	Held	100	92¢	97.15¢	$97.15	$5.15	+5.6%	2027-01-29
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	200	64¢	66.5¢	$133.00	$5.00	+3.9%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	150	18.8¢	22.05¢	$33.08	$4.88	+17.3%	2028-01-01
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? No	Held	40	59¢	71¢	$28.40	$4.80	+20.3%	2026-10-30
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	140	94.94¢	98.35¢	$137.69	$4.77	+3.6%	2026-10-27
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No	Held	20	55.5¢	78.7¢	$15.74	$4.64	+41.8%	—
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No	Held	400	96.5¢	97.65¢	$390.60	$4.60	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No	Held	69.9907	46¢	52.5¢	$36.75	$4.55	+14.1%	2026-11-30
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará? Yes	Held	60	82¢	89.5¢	$53.70	$4.50	+9.1%	2026-10-26
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	100	40¢	44.5¢	$44.50	$4.50	+11.3%	—
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? No	Held	50	88¢	96.45¢	$48.23	$4.22	+9.6%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Held	99.99	95.2¢	99.4¢	$99.39	$4.20	+4.4%	2027-04-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No	Held	61.85	83.42¢	90.2¢	$55.79	$4.19	+8.1%	2027-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	93.96	88¢	92.4¢	$86.82	$4.13	+5.0%	2027-01-01
Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Held	100	87¢	91¢	$91.00	$4.00	+4.6%	2027-07-01
Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? No	Held	50	89¢	97¢	$48.50	$4.00	+9.0%	2027-03-01
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027? No	Held	20	74¢	94¢	$18.80	$4.00	+27.0%	2028-01-01
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? No	Held	59.94	86.84¢	93.4¢	$55.98	$3.93	+7.5%	2027-04-01
Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election? Yes	Held	9.3	25.6¢	67.7¢	$6.30	$3.92	+164.5%	2027-06-07
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No	Held	200	95¢	96.95¢	$193.90	$3.90	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026? No	Held	40	85.5¢	95.25¢	$38.10	$3.90	+11.4%	2026-12-31
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026? No	Held	100	95.49¢	99.35¢	$99.35	$3.85	+4.0%	2026-11-29
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	107.8166	94¢	97.55¢	$105.18	$3.83	+3.8%	2027-01-01
Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland? Yes	Held	150	81.66¢	84.2¢	$126.30	$3.80	+3.1%	2026-09-14
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	100	92.7¢	96.45¢	$96.45	$3.75	+4.0%	2027-01-01
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	80	22¢	26.5¢	$21.20	$3.60	+20.5%	2027-01-01
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	80	19¢	23.5¢	$18.80	$3.60	+23.7%	2026-12-31
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	100	66¢	69.5¢	$69.50	$3.50	+5.3%	2026-10-28
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No	Held	30	82¢	93.5¢	$28.05	$3.45	+14.0%	2027-01-01
Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Yes	Held	40	28¢	36.55¢	$14.62	$3.42	+30.5%	2027-06-07
Will Dillon Roberts win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	22¢	30.5¢	$12.20	$3.40	+38.6%	2026-10-28
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	37.02	50¢	59¢	$21.84	$3.33	+18.0%	2027-07-01
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	100	96.6¢	99.9¢	$99.90	$3.30	+3.4%	2026-10-28
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? No	Held	100	93¢	96.25¢	$96.25	$3.25	+3.5%	2026-11-01
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No	Held	100	93¢	96.25¢	$96.25	$3.25	+3.5%	2027-01-01
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	50	77¢	83.5¢	$41.75	$3.25	+8.4%	2026-12-31
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? No	Held	150	87.06¢	89.2¢	$133.80	$3.20	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 26M in October? No	Held	20	82¢	97.55¢	$19.51	$3.11	+19.0%	2026-10-31
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	44.8558	88¢	94.85¢	$42.55	$3.07	+7.8%	2026-12-31
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes	Held	240	62.24¢	63.5¢	$152.40	$3.00	+2.0%	2026-11-29
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? No	Held	20	25¢	40¢	$8.00	$3.00	+60.0%	2026-09-21
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? Yes	Held	99.99	34¢	37¢	$37.00	$3.00	+8.8%	2027-01-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	710	76.08¢	76.5¢	$543.15	$2.95	+0.5%	2026-09-14
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Held	49.9971	72¢	77.5¢	$38.75	$2.75	+7.6%	2027-01-01
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No	Held	39	39¢	46¢	$17.94	$2.73	+17.9%	2026-11-17
Plague case in US by December 31? No	Held	40	86¢	92.5¢	$37.00	$2.60	+7.6%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No	Held	50	91¢	96.1¢	$48.05	$2.55	+5.6%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No	Held	100	62.5¢	65¢	$65.00	$2.50	+4.0%	2026-12-01
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Held	20	77¢	89.5¢	$17.90	$2.50	+16.2%	2027-01-01
Will Marvel's Wolverine win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? No	Held	100	96¢	98.4¢	$98.40	$2.40	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	80	79¢	82¢	$65.60	$2.40	+3.8%	2027-02-07
Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Gengar? No	Held	60	52¢	56¢	$33.60	$2.40	+7.7%	2026-10-30
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? Yes	Held	20	79¢	91¢	$18.20	$2.40	+15.2%	2027-04-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? No	Held	59.9909	78¢	82¢	$49.19	$2.40	+5.1%	2027-04-01
Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election? No	Held	20	81¢	92¢	$18.40	$2.20	+13.6%	2026-11-30
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? No	Held	39.99	91.1¢	96.55¢	$38.61	$2.18	+6.0%	2027-12-31
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? No	Held	12.0937	68¢	86¢	$10.40	$2.18	+26.5%	2027-01-01
Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election? No	Held	28.8497	27¢	34.5¢	$9.95	$2.16	+27.8%	2026-12-05
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	80	88¢	90.5¢	$72.40	$2.00	+2.8%	2026-11-01
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026? No	Held	20	48¢	58¢	$11.60	$2.00	+20.8%	2026-10-31
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? No	Held	5	58¢	97.7¢	$4.88	$1.99	+68.4%	2027-01-01
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? No	Held	20	87.5¢	97.3¢	$19.46	$1.96	+11.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	60	93¢	96.25¢	$57.75	$1.95	+3.5%	2026-11-04
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	128	84¢	85.5¢	$109.44	$1.92	+1.8%	2029-01-01
Will Denis Zvizdić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? No	Held	40	87.2¢	91.85¢	$36.74	$1.86	+5.3%	2028-08-01
Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	40	78¢	82.5¢	$33.00	$1.80	+5.8%	2027-01-01
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Held	50	93.3¢	96.65¢	$48.33	$1.68	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	28¢	32¢	$12.80	$1.60	+14.3%	2026-10-28
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	100	82¢	83.5¢	$83.50	$1.50	+1.8%	2027-07-01
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No	Held	100	79¢	80.5¢	$80.50	$1.50	+1.9%	2027-01-01
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? No	Held	100	51¢	52.5¢	$52.50	$1.50	+2.9%	2027-06-30
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31? Yes	Held	99.9966	97¢	98.5¢	$98.50	$1.50	+1.5%	2026-10-31
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Held	290	98.49¢	99¢	$287.10	$1.45	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? No	Held	39.99	94¢	97.6¢	$39.03	$1.44	+3.8%	2026-12-31
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No	Held	17.99	66¢	74¢	$13.31	$1.44	+12.1%	2027-01-01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	180.46	75.27¢	76.05¢	$137.24	$1.40	+1.0%	2027-01-01
Anduril IPO before 2027? No	Held	15	89¢	98.25¢	$14.74	$1.39	+10.4%	2027-01-01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No	Held	38.94	91¢	94.45¢	$36.78	$1.34	+3.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes	Held	20	64¢	70.5¢	$14.10	$1.30	+10.2%	2026-11-04
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	50	72¢	74.5¢	$37.25	$1.25	+3.5%	2026-11-04
Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election? Yes	Held	20	59¢	65¢	$13.00	$1.20	+10.2%	2026-10-28
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? No	Held	39.9954	69¢	72¢	$28.80	$1.20	+4.3%	2026-11-02
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? No	Held	14.65	82¢	90¢	$13.19	$1.17	+9.8%	2027-01-01
Plague pandemic in 2026? No	Held	40	95.25¢	98.15¢	$39.26	$1.16	+3.0%	2027-01-01
US military draft authorized in 2026? No	Held	50	94¢	96.3¢	$48.15	$1.15	+2.4%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? No	Held	21.27	45¢	50¢	$10.63	$1.06	+11.1%	2027-06-01
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Held	40	91.5¢	94.15¢	$37.66	$1.06	+2.9%	2027-01-01
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No	Held	100	94.5¢	95.55¢	$95.55	$1.05	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be 600,000 or more? No	Held	61	91.99¢	93.55¢	$57.07	$0.95	+1.7%	2026-11-04
Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	20	59¢	63.5¢	$12.70	$0.90	+7.6%	2026-11-03
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No	Held	8.81	60¢	70¢	$6.17	$0.88	+16.7%	2026-10-27
Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No	Held	70	98.23¢	99.4¢	$69.58	$0.81	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? No	Held	20	90¢	94¢	$18.80	$0.80	+4.4%	2027-01-01
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? No	Held	50	82¢	83.5¢	$41.75	$0.75	+1.8%	2027-01-01
Will Forza Horizon 6 win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards? No	Held	20	82¢	85.5¢	$17.10	$0.70	+4.3%	2026-12-10
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No	Held	54.23	77.56¢	78.85¢	$42.76	$0.70	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	40	90¢	91.5¢	$36.60	$0.60	+1.7%	2026-11-04
Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026? No	Held	20	77.67¢	80.5¢	$16.10	$0.56	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No	Held	50	94¢	95.1¢	$47.55	$0.55	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Will Lamine Yamal rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? No	Held	5.01	74¢	84¢	$4.21	$0.50	+13.5%	2026-12-31
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No	Held	99.99	63.49¢	64¢	$63.99	$0.50	+0.8%	2028-01-01
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	50	85¢	86¢	$43.00	$0.50	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? No	Held	5.71	92¢	99.55¢	$5.68	$0.43	+8.2%	2026-11-01
Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? No	Held	160	76.24¢	76.5¢	$122.40	$0.40	+0.3%	2026-10-28
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? No	Held	50	95¢	95.7¢	$47.85	$0.35	+0.7%	2026-10-25
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? No	Held	10	71¢	74.5¢	$7.45	$0.35	+4.9%	2026-11-04
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Colorado be between 2,700,000 and 2,850,000? No	Held	5	62¢	69¢	$3.45	$0.35	+11.3%	2026-11-04
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No	Held	14.19	77.7¢	79.35¢	$11.26	$0.23	+2.1%	2027-04-01
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? No	Held	5	85¢	88.5¢	$4.42	$0.17	+4.1%	2026-12-31
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Held	3.58	96.3¢	97.85¢	$3.50	$0.06	+1.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	200	73.99¢	74¢	$148.00	<$0.01	+0.0%	2026-11-04
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No	Held	400	90.5¢	90.5¢	$362.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes	Held	400	75.5¢	75.5¢	$302.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-04
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	200	53¢	53¢	$106.00	$0.00	0.0%	2027-02-01
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Held	80	90¢	90¢	$72.00	$0.00	0.0%	2027-04-01
Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027? Yes	Held	99.9923	35¢	35¢	$35.00	$0.00	0.0%	2027-05-01
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	20	34¢	34¢	$6.80	$0.00	0.0%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026? Yes	Held	40.12	83.98¢	83.5¢	$33.50	-$0.19	-0.6%	2026-11-04
Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Held	20	81¢	80¢	$16.00	-$0.20	-1.2%	2027-02-01
Will Brendan Blomeley win the next Clarence mayoral election? No	Held	60	41¢	40.5¢	$24.30	-$0.30	-1.2%	2026-10-28
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	20	84¢	82.5¢	$16.50	-$0.30	-1.8%	2026-11-03
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Held	28.14	96.7¢	95.3¢	$26.82	-$0.39	-1.4%	2027-01-01
Will Otti Alex Chioma win the 2027 Abia State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	40	89¢	88¢	$35.20	-$0.40	-1.1%	2027-02-07
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Held	200	98.49¢	98.2¢	$196.40	-$0.60	-0.3%	2027-01-01
Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No	Held	50	85.8¢	84.4¢	$42.20	-$0.70	-1.6%	2027-07-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	50	29¢	27.5¢	$13.75	-$0.75	-5.2%	2027-01-01
Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Charizard? No	Held	40	57¢	55¢	$22.00	-$0.80	-3.5%	2026-10-30
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No	Held	100	93.5¢	92.65¢	$92.65	-$0.85	-0.9%	2026-11-01
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes	Held	60	70¢	68.5¢	$41.10	-$0.90	-2.1%	2026-11-29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Held	200	92¢	91.5¢	$183.00	-$1.00	-0.5%	2027-01-01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No	Held	100	82¢	81¢	$81.00	-$1.00	-1.2%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No	Held	100	76¢	75¢	$75.00	-$1.00	-1.3%	2026-12-01
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes	Held	50	61¢	58.9¢	$29.45	-$1.05	-3.4%	2027-01-01
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes	Held	70.8064	38¢	36.5¢	$25.84	-$1.06	-3.9%	2027-03-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? No	Held	20	92¢	86.5¢	$17.30	-$1.10	-6.0%	2026-12-01
Will “I Can't Love You Anymore” by Ella Langley and Morgan Wallen win Musical Event of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? Yes	Held	20	37¢	31.5¢	$6.30	-$1.10	-14.9%	2026-11-19
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	49.9995	79¢	76.5¢	$38.25	-$1.25	-3.2%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes	Held	548.1176	83.72¢	83.5¢	$457.68	-$1.26	-0.3%	2026-10-29
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026? No	Held	10	43¢	30¢	$3.00	-$1.30	-30.2%	2026-12-01
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No	Held	100	74¢	72.5¢	$72.50	-$1.50	-2.0%	2027-01-01
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No	Held	64.07	75.35¢	73¢	$46.77	-$1.51	-3.1%	2026-11-30
Will Louise Bloomfield win the next Hobart mayoral election? Yes	Held	39.41	12¢	8.05¢	$3.17	-$1.56	-32.9%	2026-10-28
Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election? No	Held	60	79¢	76¢	$45.60	-$1.80	-3.8%	2026-10-28
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	400	90¢	89.5¢	$358.00	-$2.00	-0.6%	2028-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	100	55¢	53¢	$53.00	-$2.00	-3.6%	2027-01-01
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No	Held	49.99	82.7¢	78.55¢	$39.27	-$2.07	-5.0%	2026-11-15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	18.2	69¢	56¢	$10.19	-$2.37	-18.8%	2027-01-01
Will Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	19.9914	30¢	17.5¢	$3.50	-$2.50	-41.7%	2027-02-07
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes	Held	10	54¢	28.5¢	$2.85	-$2.55	-47.2%	2026-10-31
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No	Held	39.99	95¢	88.5¢	$35.39	-$2.60	-6.8%	2026-09-07
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane? Yes	Held	40	56¢	49.5¢	$19.80	-$2.60	-11.6%	2026-11-05
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? No	Held	34	80¢	71¢	$24.14	-$3.06	-11.3%	2027-02-01
Will Ján Nosko win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election? Yes	Held	20	57¢	39.5¢	$7.90	-$3.50	-30.7%	2026-10-25
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No	Held	240	38¢	36.5¢	$87.60	-$3.60	-3.9%	2030-01-01
Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election? Yes	Held	60	60¢	54¢	$32.40	-$3.60	-10.0%	2026-10-27
Will Tony Mulder win the next Clarence mayoral election? Yes	Held	80	26.4¢	21.75¢	$17.40	-$3.72	-17.6%	2026-10-28
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No	Held	103.8888	67.17¢	63.5¢	$65.97	-$3.82	-5.5%	2026-10-27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes	Held	600	91.66¢	91¢	$546.00	-$4.00	-0.7%	2026-10-25
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes	Held	100	80¢	76¢	$76.00	-$4.00	-5.0%	2026-11-30
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	20	53¢	31¢	$6.20	-$4.40	-41.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	19.99	47¢	24.5¢	$4.90	-$4.50	-47.9%	2026-11-03
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	500	71.4¢	70.5¢	$352.50	-$4.50	-1.3%	2026-10-28
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? No	Held	100	72¢	67.5¢	$67.50	-$4.50	-6.3%	2026-11-01
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? No	Held	100	8¢	3.5¢	$3.50	-$4.50	-56.3%	2026-09-21
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No	Held	60	38¢	30¢	$18.00	-$4.80	-21.1%	2026-11-04
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? Yes	Held	438.44	3.94¢	2.85¢	$12.50	-$4.81	-27.8%	2027-01-21
Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? No	Held	39.99	77.99¢	65.5¢	$26.19	-$5.00	-16.0%	2026-10-28
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	149.9957	62.49¢	58¢	$87.00	-$5.00	-7.2%	2027-02-01
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No	Held	200	93¢	90.5¢	$181.00	-$5.00	-2.7%	2026-11-01
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31? No	Held	200	70¢	67.5¢	$135.00	-$5.00	-3.6%	2026-12-31
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? No	Held	40	78¢	65.5¢	$26.20	-$5.00	-16.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	40	72¢	59.5¢	$23.80	-$5.00	-17.4%	2028-01-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes	Held	40	60¢	47.5¢	$19.00	-$5.00	-20.8%	2026-11-30
Will Ismael Burgueño Ruiz win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election? Yes	Held	18	41¢	11.65¢	$2.10	-$5.28	-71.6%	2027-06-07
Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	18¢	4.7¢	$1.88	-$5.32	-73.9%	2026-11-03
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes	Held	20	64.5¢	37.55¢	$7.51	-$5.39	-41.8%	2027-01-01
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No	Held	100	78¢	72.5¢	$72.50	-$5.50	-7.1%	2027-07-01
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	50	81¢	70¢	$35.00	-$5.50	-13.6%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes	Held	35.88	38.39¢	22.95¢	$8.23	-$5.54	-40.2%	—
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? No	Held	20	66¢	37.85¢	$7.57	-$5.63	-42.7%	2026-09-14
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No	Held	50	57¢	45.5¢	$22.75	-$5.75	-20.2%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? No	Held	140	77.14¢	73¢	$102.20	-$5.80	-5.4%	2027-02-01
Will Michelle Dracoulis win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	61¢	46.5¢	$18.60	-$5.80	-23.8%	2026-10-28
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	50	16¢	3.95¢	$1.98	-$6.03	-75.3%	2026-10-31
Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	200	76.01¢	73¢	$146.00	-$6.03	-4.0%	2026-11-04
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	200	77.69¢	74.5¢	$149.00	-$6.40	-4.1%	2026-11-04
Will Paul Franklin (steel guitar) win Musician of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? No	Held	40	67¢	51¢	$20.40	-$6.40	-23.9%	2026-11-19
Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? Yes	Held	40	73¢	56.5¢	$22.60	-$6.60	-22.6%	2026-11-04
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026? Yes	Held	80	13¢	4.75¢	$3.80	-$6.60	-63.5%	2026-12-31
Will Rastislav Mochnacký win the 2026 Prešov mayoral election? Yes	Held	45.1201	23.88¢	8.2¢	$3.70	-$7.08	-65.7%	2026-10-25
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Held	80	81¢	72¢	$57.60	-$7.20	-11.1%	2026-10-31
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? No	Held	40	70¢	52¢	$20.80	-$7.20	-25.7%	2026-10-30
Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday? No	Held	42.63	39¢	22¢	$9.38	-$7.25	-43.6%	2027-02-01
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No	Held	80	48.75¢	39.65¢	$31.72	-$7.28	-18.7%	2027-01-01
Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 20 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Held	100	89¢	81.5¢	$81.50	-$7.50	-8.4%	2026-10-26
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027? Yes	Held	50	20¢	4.65¢	$2.33	-$7.67	-76.8%	2026-12-31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Held	50	62¢	46.5¢	$23.25	-$7.75	-25.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No	Held	402.32	85.46¢	83.5¢	$335.94	-$7.92	-2.3%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Held	200	91.5¢	87.35¢	$174.70	-$8.30	-4.5%	2028-11-08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes	Held	70	35.84¢	23.85¢	$16.70	-$8.39	-33.5%	2027-01-01
Will Andrea Kaiser win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election? Yes	Held	60	43¢	29¢	$17.40	-$8.40	-32.6%	2026-10-27
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? No	Held	100	64¢	55.5¢	$55.50	-$8.50	-13.3%	—
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? No	Held	170	79.82¢	74.7¢	$126.99	-$8.71	-6.4%	2027-01-01
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	57¢	35¢	$14.00	-$8.80	-38.6%	2026-12-31
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	53.9542	30¢	13.5¢	$7.28	-$8.90	-55.0%	2027-07-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? No	Held	120	65¢	57.5¢	$69.00	-$9.00	-11.5%	2028-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No	Held	20	66¢	17.5¢	$3.50	-$9.70	-73.5%	2026-11-30
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? No	Held	40	72¢	47.5¢	$19.00	-$9.80	-34.0%	2026-12-10
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	58¢	33.5¢	$13.40	-$9.80	-42.2%	2026-12-31
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	56¢	31.5¢	$12.60	-$9.80	-43.8%	2026-12-31
GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027? No	Held	100	23¢	13¢	$13.00	-$10.00	-43.5%	2027-12-31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	99.9927	78¢	67.75¢	$67.75	-$10.25	-13.1%	2026-11-01
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Held	99.99	64.1¢	53.8¢	$53.79	-$10.30	-16.1%	2027-04-19
Will Jeff Fawcett win the 2026 Brandon mayoral election? Yes	Held	59.99	72¢	54.5¢	$32.69	-$10.50	-24.3%	2026-10-29
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? Yes	Held	50	70¢	49¢	$24.50	-$10.50	-30.0%	2027-04-01
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? No	Held	80.851	53¢	40¢	$32.34	-$10.51	-24.5%	2027-01-10
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes	Held	100	56¢	45¢	$45.00	-$11.00	-19.6%	2027-01-01
Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	78¢	50.5¢	$20.20	-$11.00	-35.3%	2026-10-25
Will Igor Choma win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	69.23	23.66¢	7.55¢	$5.23	-$11.16	-68.1%	2026-10-25
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	39.995	44¢	16¢	$6.40	-$11.20	-63.6%	2026-10-28
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election? Yes	Held	50	50¢	27.5¢	$13.75	-$11.25	-45.0%	2026-10-27
Will Russell Yaxley win the next Glenorchy mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	40¢	11.5¢	$4.60	-$11.40	-71.3%	2026-10-28
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026? Yes	Held	20	82¢	23¢	$4.60	-$11.80	-72.0%	2026-11-11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	600.0044	40.74¢	37¢	$222.00	-$12.00	-9.2%	2026-11-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? Yes	Held	100	37¢	24¢	$24.00	-$13.00	-35.1%	—
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	40	46¢	6¢	$2.40	-$13.20	-87.0%	2026-10-31
Will Jan Liggett win the 2026 Cambridge mayoral election? Yes	Held	40	57¢	23.5¢	$9.40	-$13.40	-58.8%	2026-10-27
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes	Held	20	92¢	23.35¢	$4.67	-$13.73	-74.6%	2027-01-01
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Held	399.99	17¢	13.5¢	$54.00	-$14.00	-20.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	400	69.5¢	66¢	$264.00	-$14.00	-5.0%	2026-11-04
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	50	93¢	65¢	$32.50	-$14.00	-30.1%	2028-01-01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	160	10¢	1.15¢	$1.84	-$14.16	-88.5%	2027-01-01
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Held	299.9923	6.66¢	1.9¢	$5.70	-$14.30	-71.5%	2026-09-07
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	600	94¢	91.5¢	$549.00	-$15.00	-2.7%	2028-01-01
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? Yes	Held	50	44¢	13.5¢	$6.75	-$15.25	-69.3%	2027-04-16
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40	48¢	8¢	$3.20	-$16.00	-83.3%	2026-10-31
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No	Held	181.2472	64¢	55¢	$99.69	-$16.31	-14.1%	2027-01-01
Will Peter Hambálek win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	80	25.5¢	5¢	$4.00	-$16.40	-80.4%	2026-10-25
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? No	Held	40	48¢	6.35¢	$2.54	-$16.66	-86.8%	2026-09-14
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Held	120	49¢	35¢	$42.00	-$16.80	-28.6%	2027-03-14
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? No	Held	100	70¢	52.5¢	$52.50	-$17.50	-25.0%	2028-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes	Held	200	51¢	41.5¢	$83.00	-$19.00	-18.6%	2026-11-23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	100	78¢	58.5¢	$58.50	-$19.50	-25.0%	2027-04-01
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes	Held	58.24	68¢	34.5¢	$20.09	-$19.51	-49.3%	2027-07-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026? Yes	Held	40	90¢	39¢	$15.60	-$20.40	-56.7%	2026-09-24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes	Held	300	56.33¢	49.5¢	$148.50	-$20.50	-12.1%	2026-11-16
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No	Held	50	75¢	34¢	$17.00	-$20.50	-54.7%	2026-10-31
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections? Yes	Held	100	30.88¢	9.55¢	$9.55	-$21.33	-69.1%	2026-10-05
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more? No	Held	134.1	60¢	41¢	$54.98	-$21.60	-31.7%	2026-11-04
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No	Held	287.1319	72.62¢	65¢	$186.64	-$21.90	-10.5%	2028-01-01
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? Yes	Held	40	72¢	14.5¢	$5.80	-$23.00	-79.9%	2026-10-26
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No	Held	199.9914	62.74¢	51¢	$102.00	-$23.50	-18.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	80	56.5¢	27¢	$21.60	-$23.60	-52.2%	2026-11-26
Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday? No	Held	50	78¢	30¢	$15.00	-$24.00	-61.5%	2027-02-01
Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026? Yes	Held	149.9941	97.69¢	81.35¢	$122.02	-$24.52	-16.7%	2027-01-01
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Held	100	69¢	43.5¢	$43.50	-$25.50	-37.0%	2027-07-01
Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	100	51¢	25.5¢	$25.50	-$25.50	-50.0%	—
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? No	Held	249.9963	66.79¢	56.5¢	$141.25	-$25.75	-15.4%	2027-07-01
Will Željko Komšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Yes	Held	200	17.2¢	3.9¢	$7.80	-$26.60	-77.3%	2028-08-01
Will Ondřej Talíř be the next Mayor of České Budějovice? Yes	Held	340	11.79¢	3.8¢	$12.92	-$27.18	-67.8%	2027-06-30
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Held	100	37¢	9.4¢	$9.40	-$27.60	-74.6%	2026-09-20
Will Jan Dohnal be the next Mayor of Ostrava? Yes	Held	130	25.3¢	3.2¢	$4.16	-$28.74	-87.4%	2026-10-10
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes	Held	100	48.2¢	18.55¢	$18.55	-$29.65	-61.5%	2027-01-01
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No	Held	260	41.36¢	29.7¢	$77.22	-$30.34	-28.2%	2026-10-25
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	743.2832	47.87¢	43.5¢	$323.33	-$32.08	-9.1%	2027-07-01
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31? Yes	Held	208	18.34¢	2.05¢	$4.26	-$33.89	-88.8%	2026-10-31
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	149.9916	76.33¢	52.5¢	$78.75	-$35.75	-31.2%	2026-10-27
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	200	65¢	47¢	$94.00	-$36.00	-27.7%	2027-01-01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Held	999.99	63.19¢	59.5¢	$594.99	-$37.00	-5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	151.7	29¢	3.75¢	$5.69	-$38.30	-87.1%	2026-11-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) Yes	Held	100	49¢	5.5¢	$5.50	-$43.50	-88.8%	2026-10-31
Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election? No	Held	208.88	50.58¢	29.5¢	$61.62	-$44.03	-41.7%	2026-10-25
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? No	Held	200	73.19¢	50.8¢	$101.60	-$44.80	-30.6%	2027-01-21
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No	Held	560	86.53¢	78.5¢	$439.60	-$45.00	-9.3%	2026-11-01
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes	Held	150	76.33¢	45.65¢	$68.47	-$46.02	-40.2%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? Yes	Held	165.0504	30.02¢	1.8¢	$2.97	-$46.59	-94.0%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Held	200	86¢	87.5¢	$175.00	-$47.00	+1.7%	2026-12-31
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No	Held	100	69¢	21.5¢	$21.50	-$47.50	-68.8%	2026-12-01
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	1,134.61	28.98¢	25¢	$283.65	-$48.91	-13.7%	2027-07-01
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	280	18.99¢	1.35¢	$3.78	-$49.42	-92.9%	2026-11-01
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? No	Held	200	32¢	5.5¢	$11.00	-$53.00	-82.8%	2026-09-14
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	349.9923	46.28¢	22.5¢	$78.75	-$53.44	-51.4%	2027-01-01
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Held	200	57¢	27.5¢	$55.00	-$59.00	-51.8%	2027-01-01
Will Drake release a new album by December 31? Yes	Held	200	46¢	16.5¢	$33.00	-$59.00	-64.1%	2027-01-01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	100	67¢	6.5¢	$6.50	-$60.50	-90.3%	2026-10-31
Will Tomáš Hrubý be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem? Yes	Held	116.28	56¢	2.65¢	$3.08	-$62.04	-95.3%	2027-06-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	100	78¢	10.5¢	$10.50	-$67.50	-86.5%	2026-10-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	544.1043	67.49¢	55¢	$299.26	-$68.01	-18.5%	2027-07-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes	Held	588.9792	70.94¢	59¢	$347.50	-$70.35	-16.8%	2026-11-16
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200	51¢	12.5¢	$25.00	-$77.00	-75.5%	2027-01-01
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Held	296.45	39.17¢	9¢	$26.68	-$89.44	-77.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	642.63	60.45¢	46.5¢	$298.82	-$89.66	-23.1%	2026-12-31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	350	49.57¢	23.5¢	$82.25	-$91.25	-52.6%	2026-10-05
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No	Held	399.9909	64.99¢	61.5¢	$245.99	-$94.00	-5.4%	2027-01-01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Held	220.0043	44.09¢	8.5¢	$18.70	-$108.49	-80.7%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes	Held	500	64.39¢	42¢	$210.00	-$112.00	-34.8%	2028-01-01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Held	2,625.0326	10.18¢	4.05¢	$106.31	-$133.02	-60.2%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200	69¢	2.4¢	$4.80	-$133.20	-96.5%	2026-11-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? Yes	Held	185.8643	77.81¢	3.2¢	$5.95	-$138.68	-95.9%	2026-10-25
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	500	65.69¢	34.5¢	$172.50	-$156.00	-47.5%	2026-12-31
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes	Held	400	59.71¢	20.5¢	$82.00	-$156.86	-65.7%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	927.3687	16.92¢	3.4¢	$31.53	-$166.75	-79.9%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,250	54.07¢	38.5¢	$481.25	-$194.75	-28.8%	2027-04-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Held	509.4	62.19¢	23.35¢	$118.94	-$197.86	-62.5%	2026-10-05
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Held	809.9559	43.85¢	15¢	$121.49	-$233.69	-65.8%	2027-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	182.6389	87.36¢	79.5¢	$145.20	-$313.19	-9.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,081.1615	1.81¢	0.25¢	$5.20	-$345.38	-86.2%	2026-11-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,218.5792	33.19¢	21.5¢	$476.99	-$577.10	-35.2%	2026-11-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Held	3,900.6504	46.48¢	11.5¢	$448.57	-$1.4K	-75.3%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,400	61.13¢	6.5¢	$91.00	-$1.9K	-89.4%	2026-11-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5,732.9766	73.85¢	33.75¢	$1.9K	-$2.3K	-54.3%	2027-01-01

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