Wallet ledger

0xb17d…59ae

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

314

Realized PnL

-$4.8K

Win rate

66.2%

Realized edge

-2.9 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -2.9 pp across 314 resolved positions, 95% CI [-6.3, +0.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (500 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No	Open	1,327	22¢	$194	+67%	2027-07-01
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	217	29¢	$131	+208%	2026-10-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Open	1,200	78¢	$110	+12%	2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Open	1,000	77¢	$93	+12%	2027-01-01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Open	700	74¢	$90	+18%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Open	500	41¢	$83	+40%	2028-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Open	780	48¢	$80	+21%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No	Open	480	77¢	$76	+21%	2026-09-30
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Open	400	70¢	$67	+24%	2027-01-01
Kash Patel out by December 31? No	Open	712	68¢	$66	+14%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Open	1,200	89¢	$60	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Open	200	51¢	$58	+57%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	800	93¢	$57	+8%	2026-09-01
Iran leadership change by September 30? No	Open	700	90¢	$54	+9%	2026-10-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Open	250	67¢	$51	+31%	2026-11-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No	Open	454	68¢	$51	+16%	2027-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Open	750	88¢	$51	+8%	2027-01-01
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes	Open	366	49¢	$49	+28%	2026-12-09
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes	Open	200	64¢	$47	+37%	2027-01-01
Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? Yes	Open	50	13¢	$43	+690%	2026-09-06
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? No	Open	329	80¢	$43	+16%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? No	Open	500	63¢	$42	+13%	1970-01-01
Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m? No	Open	260	84¢	$42	+19%	2026-09-06
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No	Open	124	39¢	$41	+85%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	120	60¢	$41	+57%	2026-10-01
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No	Open	400	81¢	$40	+12%	2027-01-01
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Open	120	67¢	$40	+50%	2026-12-31
Will Drake release a new album by September 30? No	Open	202	72¢	$39	+27%	2026-10-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Open	490	71¢	$39	+11%	2026-12-31
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Open	469	79¢	$37	+10%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No	Open	627	88¢	$36	+7%	2026-10-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No	Open	320	72¢	$36	+16%	2026-11-30
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No	Open	448	72¢	$35	+11%	1970-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? Yes	Open	100	37¢	$34	+91%	1970-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	80¢	$31	+19%	2027-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	304	48¢	$30	+21%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Yes	Open	60	18¢	$30	+281%	2026-09-08
Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	100	55¢	$30	+55%	2026-11-03
Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? No	Open	90	67¢	$30	+49%	2026-09-06
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? Yes	Open	438	4¢	$29	+166%	2027-01-20
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026? No	Open	50	39¢	$28	+144%	2026-09-12
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? Yes	Open	100	23¢	$28	+120%	2027-03-31
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? No	Open	105	42¢	$27	+61%	2026-10-01
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? No	Open	200	15¢	$27	+90%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? No	Open	450	77¢	$27	+8%	1970-01-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? No	Open	100	64¢	$26	+40%	2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	895	84¢	$25	+3%	2026-10-01
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? No	Open	160	65¢	$24	+23%	2026-09-14
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? No	Open	165	39¢	$24	+37%	1970-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No	Open	777	93¢	$24	+3%	2027-01-01
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No	Open	100	64¢	$23	+35%	2027-01-01
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No	Open	400	91¢	$22	+6%	2027-01-01
Will CDU win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	178	33¢	$22	+38%	2026-09-20
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Open	200	83¢	$22	+13%	1970-01-01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	83¢	$22	+13%	2027-01-01
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No	Open	170	80¢	$21	+15%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Yes	Open	200	17¢	$21	+61%	2026-09-08
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Yes	Open	120	79¢	$21	+22%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No	Open	200	88¢	$20	+11%	2026-09-30
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? Yes	Open	50	9¢	$19	+433%	2026-09-15
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	1,897	90¢	$19	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	200	83¢	$19	+11%	2026-11-03
Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	200	76¢	$19	+12%	2026-11-03
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No	Open	298	90¢	$19	+7%	2026-10-01
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Open	100	24¢	$19	+77%	2026-09-06
Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	120	27¢	$18	+57%	2026-09-30
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	60	30¢	$18	+102%	2026-09-13
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	100	71¢	$18	+25%	2026-10-01
Will Dr. Furlan win the 2026 Amapá gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	200	77¢	$18	+12%	2026-10-04
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	200	91¢	$18	+10%	2026-10-31
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No	Open	434	74¢	$18	+6%	2026-12-31
Will the highest temperature during Burning Man 2026 be 87°F or 88°F? Yes	Open	100	78¢	$17	+22%	2026-09-08
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	506	69¢	$17	+5%	2027-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No	Open	200	91¢	$16	+9%	2026-10-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? No	Open	100	83¢	$16	+20%	2026-10-01
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026? No	Open	70	76¢	$16	+30%	2026-08-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? Yes	Open	100	78¢	$16	+21%	2026-10-01
Trump out as President before 2027? No	Open	800	92¢	$16	+2%	2027-01-01
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes	Open	500	3¢	$16	+95%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Yes	Open	50	15¢	$16	+210%	2026-09-08
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Open	200	86¢	$15	+9%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	8¢	$15	+19%	2027-01-01
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? No	Open	106	69¢	$15	+21%	2027-01-01
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? Yes	Open	420	85¢	$15	+4%	2026-10-01
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	400	85¢	$14	+4%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? No	Open	100	32¢	$14	+43%	2027-03-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? No	Open	300	84¢	$14	+5%	2026-10-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? Yes	Open	100	65¢	$14	+21%	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No	Open	400	96¢	$14	+4%	2026-10-01
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? No	Open	178	79¢	$14	+10%	2027-07-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	100	80¢	$14	+17%	2027-01-01
Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m? No	Open	106	87¢	$13	+14%	2026-09-06
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? No	Open	400	96¢	$13	+3%	2026-10-01
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	80	63¢	$13	+26%	2026-09-14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Open	600	93¢	$13	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Dagmar Škodová Parmová be the next Mayor of České Budějovice? Yes	Open	40	35¢	$13	+91%	2027-06-30
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes	Open	150	89¢	$12	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	180	25¢	$12	+27%	2026-09-13
Will Jan Dohnal be the next Mayor of Ostrava? Yes	Open	130	25¢	$12	+36%	2027-06-30
USMCA extended in 2026? No	Open	50	62¢	$12	+38%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more? No	Open	134	60¢	$11	+14%	2026-11-03
Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election? No	Open	209	51¢	$11	+11%	2026-10-24
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No	Open	360	95¢	$11	+3%	2026-10-22
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	89¢	$11	+6%	2027-01-01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No	Open	200	83¢	$11	+7%	2027-01-01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Open	400	94¢	$11	+3%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes	Open	100	56¢	$11	+19%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No	Open	700	98¢	$10	+2%	2026-10-01
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September? No	Open	250	76¢	$10	+5%	2026-09-30
Will "The Fix" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	500	95¢	$10	+2%	2026-09-14
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No	Open	200	74¢	$10	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Laken Riley" during RNC Convention? No	Open	80	52¢	$10	+24%	2026-09-10
Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? No	Open	180	76¢	$10	+7%	2026-09-13
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes	Open	50	61¢	$10	+32%	2027-01-01
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? No	Open	40	63¢	$9	+36%	2027-06-06
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No	Open	75	82¢	$9	+15%	2027-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No	Open	300	84¢	$9	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? No	Open	40	67¢	$9	+33%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	100	17¢	$8	+50%	2026-12-31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Yes	Open	100	68¢	$8	+12%	2026-09-18
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	50	73¢	$8	+21%	2026-09-20
Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of September 19? Yes	Open	36	74¢	$8	+29%	2026-09-15
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	100	84¢	$8	+9%	2026-10-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Open	413	35¢	$8	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Florian Dinger win the next Göttingen mayoral election? Yes	Open	55	29¢	$8	+48%	2026-09-13
Will "By Any Means" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	1,000	99¢	$7	+1%	2026-09-14
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? No	Open	600	88¢	$7	+1%	2026-10-01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No	Open	200	92¢	$7	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Open	200	91¢	$7	+4%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by November 30? No	Open	200	88¢	$7	+4%	2026-12-01
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	120	62¢	$7	+9%	2026-09-11
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes	Open	100	64¢	$7	+11%	2026-10-05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	200	81¢	$7	+4%	2026-12-31
Will "By Any Means" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	394	98¢	$7	+2%	2026-09-14
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? No	Open	150	51¢	$7	+9%	2026-09-13
Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	40	51¢	$7	+32%	2026-09-13
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes	Open	100	15¢	$7	+43%	2027-06-30
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31? No	Open	50	79¢	$6	+16%	2027-01-01
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Open	300	96¢	$6	+2%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? No	Open	100	90¢	$6	+7%	2027-01-01
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? No	Open	80	75¢	$6	+10%	2026-11-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	60	70¢	$6	+14%	2026-11-01
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Over/Under 17%? Over	Open	40	54¢	$6	+27%	2026-09-13
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Open	250	90¢	$5	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Gisèle Pouhe Njall win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election? No	Open	100	52¢	$5	+11%	2026-10-05
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? No	Open	50	77¢	$5	+14%	2026-09-09
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	120	73¢	$5	+6%	2026-09-11
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Open	100	61¢	$5	+9%	1970-01-01
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	60	72¢	$5	+13%	2026-09-13
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Open	300	95¢	$5	+2%	2027-01-01
Will "By Any Means" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No	Open	200	96¢	$5	+3%	2026-09-14
Will George Harvie win the 2026 Delta mayoral election? Yes	Open	40	38¢	$5	+34%	2026-10-17
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No	Open	40	85¢	$5	+15%	2026-10-01
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	100	78¢	$5	+7%	2026-09-20
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Open	100	16¢	$5	+33%	2026-12-31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	200	83¢	$5	+3%	2027-01-01
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No	Open	261	89¢	$5	+2%	2027-01-01
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No	Open	50	81¢	$5	+12%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	150	19¢	$5	+17%	2026-12-31
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	100	95¢	$5	+5%	2026-09-14
Will Michael Sowers win the 2026 PLL MVP award? Yes	Open	40	63¢	$5	+19%	2026-09-13
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? No	Open	50	91¢	$5	+10%	2026-10-01
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	100	95¢	$5	+5%	2026-09-14
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30? No	Open	47	90¢	$5	+11%	2026-09-30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No	Open	100	89¢	$5	+5%	2026-12-01
Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	100	29¢	$5	+16%	2026-09-20
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes	Open	100	27¢	$5	+17%	2027-01-01
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be 600,000 or more? No	Open	61	92¢	$4	+8%	2026-11-03
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? No	Open	50	84¢	$4	+10%	2027-01-01
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten? Yes	Open	160	84¢	$4	+3%	2026-09-13
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Open	310	77¢	$4	+2%	2026-09-13
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No	Open	200	86¢	$4	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo? Yes	Open	100	31¢	$4	+13%	2027-04-30
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Open	100	95¢	$4	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	108	94¢	$4	+4%	2027-01-01
Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? No	Open	30	87¢	$4	+15%	2026-09-06
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	100	79¢	$4	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Open	50	67¢	$4	+11%	2026-09-13
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Open	187	67¢	$4	+3%	2026-11-03
Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election? Yes	Open	40	38¢	$4	+24%	2026-09-18
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo? No	Open	41	56¢	$4	+15%	2027-04-30
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes	Open	100	72¢	$4	+5%	2027-12-31
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No	Open	100	61¢	$4	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes	Open	50	64¢	$4	+11%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No	Open	100	29¢	$4	+12%	2026-10-28
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes	Open	58	68¢	$3	+9%	2027-06-30
Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election? Yes	Open	43	58¢	$3	+14%	2026-10-04
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	300	99¢	$3	+1%	2026-10-04
Will Linke win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	40	74¢	$3	+11%	2026-09-20
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 105-109 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	180	71¢	$3	+3%	2026-09-13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? No	Open	200	97¢	$3	+2%	2026-10-01
Will Brendan Blomeley win the next Clarence mayoral election? No	Open	60	41¢	$3	+13%	2026-10-28
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? No	Open	73	90¢	$3	+5%	2027-01-01
Kash Patel out by September 30? No	Open	60	92¢	$3	+6%	2026-10-01
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? No	Open	50	88¢	$3	+7%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	200	98¢	$3	+2%	2026-09-16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	262	17¢	$3	+7%	2026-10-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? No	Open	200	80¢	$3	+2%	2026-10-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No	Open	200	92¢	$3	+2%	2027-01-01
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100? Yes	Open	40	62¢	$3	+12%	2026-10-01
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? No	Open	148	93¢	$3	+2%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	240	83¢	$3	+1%	2026-09-30
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No	Open	62	83¢	$3	+5%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	50	65¢	$3	+8%	2026-10-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No	Open	50	35¢	$3	+16%	1970-01-01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 9, 2026? No	Open	20	85¢	$3	+16%	2026-09-10
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026? No	Open	40	86¢	$3	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	100	95¢	$3	+3%	2026-10-31
Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland? Yes	Open	35	68¢	$3	+11%	2026-09-13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No	Open	400	97¢	$3	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	60	80¢	$3	+5%	2027-01-01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No	Open	500	93¢	$3	+1%	2027-01-01
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? No	Open	100	89¢	$3	+3%	2026-06-30
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? No	Open	50	72¢	$3	+7%	2026-09-12
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? Yes	Open	50	40¢	$3	+13%	2026-09-30
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	45	88¢	$2	+6%	2026-12-31
Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	98	39¢	$2	+6%	2026-09-20
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Open	20	77¢	$2	+15%	2026-12-31
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane? Yes	Open	40	56¢	$2	+10%	2026-11-05
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? No	Open	40	45¢	$2	+12%	2026-12-31
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	25	82¢	$2	+10%	2026-09-20
Will Jozef Viskupič win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	60	60¢	$2	+6%	2026-10-24
Will Marcel Van Hattem win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? Yes	Open	83	30¢	$2	+8%	2026-10-04
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No	Open	400	92¢	$2	+1%	2026-12-31
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? No	Open	80	65¢	$2	+4%	2027-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	80	57¢	$2	+4%	2027-03-14
Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) No	Open	80	82¢	$2	+3%	2027-06-30
Will "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office be less than 9m? No	Open	100	98¢	$2	+2%	2026-09-06
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	195	70¢	$2	+1%	2026-10-01
Will Kentucky have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? No	Open	70	94¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-10
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? No	Open	200	96¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-30
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	100	98¢	$2	+2%	2026-10-04
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No	Open	400	93¢	$2	+0%	2027-01-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes	Open	40	44¢	$2	+10%	2026-10-31
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026? No	Open	100	95¢	$2	+2%	2026-12-31
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No	Open	50	93¢	$2	+4%	2027-01-01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? Yes	Open	100	83¢	$2	+2%	2026-10-01
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? Yes	Open	61	76¢	$2	+3%	2026-10-21
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No	Open	20	91¢	$2	+9%	2026-09-08
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Open	100	78¢	$2	+2%	2026-09-13
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Open	300	88¢	$2	+1%	2026-11-03
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No	Open	100	93¢	$2	+2%	2027-01-01
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? No	Open	100	88¢	$2	+2%	2026-10-01
Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria? Yes	Open	100	64¢	$2	+2%	2026-11-28
US military draft authorized in 2026? No	Open	50	94¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m? No	Open	20	77¢	$1	+9%	2026-09-13
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	100	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Richard Vereš be the next Mayor of Ostrava? Yes	Open	60	59¢	$1	+4%	2027-06-30
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No	Open	50	91¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Journey" or "Travel" or "Travelled" during remarks at Steel Across America? No	Open	40	42¢	$1	+7%	2026-09-08
Will "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 9.5m? No	Open	33	96¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-06
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	100	64¢	$1	+2%	2027-04-30
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes	Open	179	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-08
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	200	95¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? No	Open	20	84¢	$1	+7%	2026-10-01
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? No	Open	90	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	200	67¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes	Open	200	63¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No	Open	100	94¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Lukáš Hájek be the next Mayor of Liberec? Yes	Open	40	54¢	$1	+5%	2027-06-30
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Open	100	70¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-31
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	37	50¢	$1	+5%	2027-03-14
Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	60	35¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? No	Open	50	97¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-16
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	80	79¢	$1	+1%	2027-02-06
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? No	Open	26	90¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-30
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats? No	Open	100	80¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-13
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	50	85¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No	Open	50	82¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No	Open	50	57¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No	Open	30	82¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	60	86¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 10, 2026? Yes	Open	20	90¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-11
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? No	Open	20	86¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-16
Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	213	11¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-30
Will Otti Alex Chioma win the 2027 Abia State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	40	89¢	$1	+2%	2027-02-06
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? Yes	Open	40	72¢	$1	+2%	2026-10-26
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 9, 2026? Yes	Open	20	90¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-10
Will Sabina Matos be the Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic nominee? Yes	Open	40	43¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-09
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	50	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-10
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	40	51¢	$1	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	20	94¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-30
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	100	94¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	100	87¢	$1	+1%	2026-11-03
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No	Open	100	82¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes	Open	100	70¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-09
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	100	61¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-20
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No	Open	50	94¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Open	50	72¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Seoul have less than 75mm of precipitation in September? No	Open	40	52¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Seoul have less than 75mm of precipitation in September? Yes	Open	40	46¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-30
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? No	Open	40	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	60	93¢	$0	+1%	1970-01-01
Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election? No	Open	60	79¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No	Open	20	89¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-01
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	20	84¢	$0	+2%	2026-11-03
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? No	Open	20	83¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-14
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? No	Open	150	87¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? No	Open	100	96¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-01
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? Yes	Open	40	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No	Open	39	91¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	28	97¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	100	91¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Open	40	92¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? Yes	Open	200	93¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? No	Open	40	91¢	$0	+0%	2027-12-31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	100	93¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026? Yes	Open	150	98¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-01
Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No	Open	70	98¢	-$0	-0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	40	79¢	-$0	-1%	2026-10-01
Will Denis Zvizdić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? No	Open	40	87¢	-$0	-1%	2027-12-31
Will "Fall 2: Deadpoint" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	500	97¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-14
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? No	Open	50	82¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	50	79¢	-$0	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Andrea Kaiser win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election? Yes	Open	60	43¢	-$0	-1%	2026-10-26
Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes	Open	40	48¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-28
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 8, 2026? Yes	Open	20	90¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-09
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Open	60	74¢	-$0	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No	Open	200	90¢	-$1	-0%	2027-01-01
Will Marvel's Wolverine win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? No	Open	100	96¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-10
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Open	50	91¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-01
Will Gisèle Pouhe Njall win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election? Yes	Open	140	43¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-05
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in September? Yes	Open	40	78¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-30
Will Iowa have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? No	Open	30	95¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? No	Open	40	70¢	-$1	-2%	2027-02-01
Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	80	88¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-24
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? Yes	Open	60	68¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-16
Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election? Yes	Open	40	78¢	-$1	-3%	2026-10-24
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	40	76¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-11
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No	Open	237	94¢	-$1	-0%	2027-01-01
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Open	290	98¢	-$1	-0%	2027-01-01
Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship? No	Open	59	62¢	-$1	-2%	2026-11-08
Will the Democrats win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026? Yes	Open	40	84¢	-$1	-3%	2026-11-03
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? No	Open	120	66¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	200	22¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-13
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-24
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 27, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? No	Open	200	97¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-15
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? No	Open	200	73¢	-$1	-1%	2027-01-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	20	90¢	-$1	-6%	2026-09-08
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 29, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? Yes	Open	90	27¢	-$1	-6%	2026-10-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 16, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$1	-4%	2026-09-17
Will Jan Liggett win the 2026 Cambridge mayoral election? Yes	Open	40	57¢	-$1	-6%	2026-10-26
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Open	150	62¢	-$1	-2%	2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	300	73¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? No	Open	100	50¢	-$2	-3%	2026-09-13
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	60	64¢	-$2	-4%	2026-11-01
Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election? Yes	Open	60	60¢	-$2	-4%	2026-10-26
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? Yes	Open	60	42¢	-$2	-6%	2026-09-14
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	270	87¢	-$2	-1%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	40	72¢	-$2	-6%	2026-10-01
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? No	Open	600	95¢	-$2	-0%	2026-12-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? No	Open	282	13¢	-$2	-5%	2026-09-30
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Open	200	98¢	-$2	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	100	87¢	-$2	-2%	2027-03-14
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	100	69¢	-$2	-3%	2027-03-14
Will the Left Party (V) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	80	85¢	-$2	-3%	2026-09-13
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	150	94¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-20
Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? Yes	Open	40	73¢	-$2	-8%	2026-11-03
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? Yes	Open	50	70¢	-$2	-6%	2027-04-01
Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? Yes	Open	500	73¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-13
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? No	Open	40	74¢	-$2	-8%	2026-10-01
Will "Japan" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	30	82¢	-$2	-10%	2026-09-13
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	100	38¢	-$3	-7%	2027-03-14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	974	14¢	-$3	-2%	2026-12-31
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No	Open	40	95¢	-$3	-7%	2026-12-31
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes	Open	150	76¢	-$3	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? Yes	Open	50	44¢	-$3	-13%	2027-04-15
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	27	77¢	-$3	-14%	2026-10-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	200	56¢	-$3	-3%	2026-10-04
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	100	55¢	-$3	-5%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	60	43¢	-$3	-12%	2026-10-01
Will Onyeka Oshionwu win the next Göttingen mayoral election? Yes	Open	100	50¢	-$3	-6%	2026-09-13
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	80	56¢	-$3	-7%	2026-11-26
Will Michelle Dracoulis win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election? Yes	Open	40	61¢	-$3	-13%	2026-10-28
Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland? Yes	Open	100	85¢	-$4	-4%	2026-09-13
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No	Open	100	33¢	-$4	-11%	2028-06-30
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No	Open	54	71¢	-$4	-9%	2026-10-27
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	220	21¢	-$4	-8%	2026-11-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	50	62¢	-$4	-12%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? No	Open	400	92¢	-$4	-1%	2026-09-22
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No	Open	100	83¢	-$4	-5%	2027-01-01
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	200	92¢	-$4	-2%	2026-10-31
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	620	69¢	-$4	-1%	2026-09-30
Will SPD win between 28% and 31% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	109	34¢	-$4	-12%	2026-09-20
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes	Open	538	23¢	-$4	-3%	2026-12-31
Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 47m? No	Open	300	75¢	-$5	-2%	2026-09-13
Will "Hacks" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	40	85¢	-$5	-15%	2026-09-14
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? No	Open	64	87¢	-$5	-9%	2026-10-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	100	55¢	-$6	-10%	2027-01-01
Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	90	84¢	-$6	-7%	2026-09-20
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? Yes	Open	150	48¢	-$6	-8%	2026-09-13
Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC Convention? No	Open	148	59¢	-$6	-7%	2026-09-10
Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	40	60¢	-$6	-24%	2026-09-14
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No	Open	140	79¢	-$6	-5%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 25, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$6	-17%	2026-09-26
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? No	Open	60	87¢	-$6	-12%	2026-12-31
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Open	185	55¢	-$6	-6%	2026-09-20
Will Karen Harper win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? Yes	Open	60	45¢	-$6	-23%	2026-10-17
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	50	83¢	-$6	-15%	2026-10-01
Will Eva Nemčovská win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election? Yes	Open	60	46¢	-$6	-23%	2026-10-24
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	250	44¢	-$6	-6%	2028-01-01
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	180	17¢	-$7	-22%	2026-12-31
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Open	100	37¢	-$7	-19%	2026-09-20
Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election? Yes	Open	40	69¢	-$7	-25%	2026-10-17
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,050	4¢	-$7	-17%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? Yes	Open	165	30¢	-$7	-15%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	200	68¢	-$7	-5%	2027-01-01
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	100	32¢	-$8	-23%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? No	Open	433	92¢	-$8	-2%	1970-01-01
Will Jeff Fawcett win the 2026 Brandon mayoral election? Yes	Open	60	72¢	-$8	-19%	2026-10-28
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	40	67¢	-$8	-31%	2026-09-30
Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes? No	Open	60	57¢	-$8	-25%	2026-09-20
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	260	75¢	-$8	-4%	2027-01-21
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Open	100	40¢	-$9	-21%	1970-01-01
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? Yes	Open	70	58¢	-$9	-21%	2026-09-11
Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? No	Open	160	76¢	-$9	-8%	2026-10-28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	300	33¢	-$9	-10%	2026-10-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	200	92¢	-$10	-5%	2028-11-07
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	100	87¢	-$10	-11%	2026-09-20
Will "Widow's Bay" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	60	82¢	-$10	-20%	2026-09-14
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Open	400	86¢	-$10	-3%	2027-01-03
Will Hong Kong have less than 275mm of precipitation in September? Yes	Open	152	52¢	-$10	-13%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Yes	Open	150	60¢	-$10	-11%	2026-09-08
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30? No	Open	233	57¢	-$11	-8%	2026-09-30
Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? Yes	Open	60	69¢	-$11	-28%	2026-10-04
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? No	Open	100	70¢	-$12	-16%	2027-12-31
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election? No	Open	60	50¢	-$12	-38%	2026-10-04
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No	Open	80	49¢	-$12	-31%	2027-01-01
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	250	83¢	-$12	-6%	2026-09-20
Will Arthur Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? No	Open	100	66¢	-$13	-19%	2026-10-04
Will Marcio Bittar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election? Yes	Open	81	55¢	-$13	-29%	2026-10-04
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No	Open	200	63¢	-$13	-10%	2026-12-31
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections? Yes	Open	100	31¢	-$13	-42%	2026-10-04
Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? No	Open	80	83¢	-$13	-20%	2026-10-04
Will Trump say "Vegan" during RNC Convention? No	Open	81	86¢	-$13	-19%	2026-09-10
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 20, 2026? Yes	Open	40	90¢	-$14	-39%	2026-09-21
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 17, 2026? Yes	Open	60	90¢	-$15	-28%	2026-09-18
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	80	55¢	-$15	-35%	2026-09-20
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31? Yes	Open	208	18¢	-$15	-40%	2026-10-31
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No	Open	200	37¢	-$16	-22%	2026-10-11
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	94	88¢	-$16	-19%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Monopoly" this week? No	Open	60	63¢	-$16	-43%	2026-09-13
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	124	34¢	-$17	-39%	2026-09-16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 19, 2026? Yes	Open	60	90¢	-$17	-32%	2026-09-20
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	85	66¢	-$18	-32%	2026-09-20
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	51¢	-$18	-18%	2027-01-01
Will Tomáš Hrubý be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem? Yes	Open	116	56¢	-$21	-32%	2027-06-30
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? Yes	Open	40	95¢	-$21	-56%	2026-09-16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? No	Open	450	25¢	-$22	-19%	2026-09-30
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	235	81¢	-$22	-12%	2026-10-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? Yes	Open	400	60¢	-$24	-10%	2027-03-31
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	300	66¢	-$25	-13%	2026-09-13
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	140	84¢	-$26	-22%	2026-10-01
Will Drake release a new album by September 30? Yes	Open	200	22¢	-$26	-61%	2026-10-01
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes	Open	500	64¢	-$27	-8%	2028-01-01
Will Chewy say "Amazon" during earnings call? Yes	Open	200	39¢	-$27	-35%	2026-09-09
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? Yes	Open	269	81¢	-$28	-13%	1970-01-01
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? Yes	Open	100	62¢	-$28	-45%	2027-06-06
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No	Open	181	64¢	-$28	-24%	2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	200	65¢	-$29	-22%	2027-01-01
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? No	Open	200	32¢	-$29	-45%	2026-09-13
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? Yes	Open	280	52¢	-$32	-22%	2026-09-13
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	100	76¢	-$35	-46%	2027-01-01
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No	Open	625	81¢	-$35	-7%	2026-12-31
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	261	71¢	-$36	-20%	2026-09-20
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	100	71¢	-$37	-51%	2026-10-01
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	1,513	29¢	-$38	-9%	2027-07-01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	700	92¢	-$40	-6%	2027-07-01
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Open	200	45¢	-$45	-49%	2026-12-31
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	200	56¢	-$45	-40%	2027-01-01
Will Drake release a new album by December 31? Yes	Open	200	46¢	-$47	-51%	2027-01-01
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30? No	Open	100	76¢	-$48	-63%	2026-10-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	309	74¢	-$49	-21%	2026-10-04
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Open	220	44¢	-$50	-51%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	927	17¢	-$50	-32%	2026-11-01
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes	Open	950	33¢	-$51	-16%	2027-01-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No	Open	200	34¢	-$51	-76%	2026-10-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,114	52¢	-$55	-9%	2026-09-16
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Open	2,700	19¢	-$60	-12%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 15+ times during remarks at Steel Across America? Yes	Open	270	50¢	-$61	-45%	2026-09-08
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	743	48¢	-$62	-17%	2027-07-01
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Open	200	57¢	-$63	-55%	2027-01-01
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? Yes	Open	240	59¢	-$66	-47%	2026-10-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	550	76¢	-$68	-16%	2027-07-01
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Open	296	39¢	-$82	-71%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	533	68¢	-$84	-23%	2027-07-01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No	Open	354	61¢	-$101	-47%	2026-09-04
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	779	21¢	-$122	-74%	2027-01-01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	1,000	63¢	-$137	-22%	2027-01-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Open	810	44¢	-$169	-48%	2027-01-01
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30? Yes	Open	2,450	9¢	-$192	-88%	2026-10-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes	Open	1,250	54¢	-$201	-30%	2027-04-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,213	40¢	-$231	-48%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	73¢	-$389	-53%	2026-11-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,303	35¢	-$636	-79%	2026-11-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Open	3,501	50¢	-$880	-51%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,583	81¢	-$1.0K	-28%	2027-01-01

Download this record (Researcher, or an address you have verified as your own):Record CSV JSON

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →