Wallet positions

0xa53b…4021

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

173

Realized PnL

$6.1K

Win rate

43.9%

Realized edge

+6.5 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +6.5 pp across 173 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.5, +12.6], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

110 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:19:56 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? Yes	Held	285.7658	75.94¢	71.5¢	$204.32	$620.54	-5.9%	2027-01-01
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? Yes	Held	1,085.4437	35.91¢	45¢	$488.45	$322.30	+25.3%	2026-12-31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 2? Yes	Redeemable	534.26	9¢	0¢	$0.00	$285.41	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8? No	Held	747.95	10.19¢	28.5¢	$213.17	$136.94	+179.6%	2026-10-08
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027? Yes	Held	200	73¢	65.6¢	$131.20	$91.03	-10.1%	2026-12-31
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? No	Held	1,214.34	26.49¢	29.65¢	$360.05	$88.11	+11.9%	2027-02-01
Will Ethena reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	463.2	20.32¢	39¢	$180.65	$86.49	+91.9%	2027-01-01
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? Yes	Held	155.0082	53.54¢	44.5¢	$68.98	$77.93	-16.9%	2026-12-31
Will Lighter dip to $3 before 2027? Yes	Held	480.26	56.87¢	70¢	$336.18	$62.22	+23.1%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	297.24	54.23¢	71¢	$211.04	$49.84	+30.9%	2027-01-01
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October? Yes	Held	299.99	29.59¢	41.5¢	$124.50	$35.70	+40.2%	2026-11-01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October? Yes	Held	60	33¢	66¢	$39.60	$19.80	+100.0%	2026-11-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 8? No	Held	771	34.99¢	37.5¢	$289.13	$19.28	+7.1%	2026-10-08
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October? Yes	Held	1,007	37.88¢	39.5¢	$397.76	$16.31	+4.3%	2026-11-01
Will XRP hit $2 by March 31, 2027? No	Held	159.89	55.14¢	65¢	$103.93	$15.75	+17.9%	2027-04-01
Will Solana hit $300 by December 31, 2027? No	Held	5.5833	76¢	57¢	$3.18	$13.43	-25.0%	2028-01-01
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	303.43	29.01¢	27¢	$81.93	$11.84	-7.0%	2027-01-01
Will edgeX reach $0.80 before 2027? Yes	Held	20.762	23.77¢	43¢	$8.93	$10.15	+80.8%	2027-01-01
Will edgeX reach $1.20 before 2027? Yes	Held	22.35	19.46¢	37¢	$8.27	$9.61	+90.1%	2027-01-01
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? Yes	Held	33.98	17.73¢	45¢	$15.29	$9.26	+153.7%	2026-12-31
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027? Yes	Held	1,759.08	11.99¢	12.5¢	$219.88	$8.80	+4.2%	2026-12-31
Will Solana hit $300 by September 30, 2027? No	Held	20.9933	69.22¢	55.5¢	$11.65	$8.63	-19.8%	2027-10-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes	Held	150.0065	50.94¢	45.4¢	$68.10	$7.27	-10.9%	2027-01-01
Will edgeX reach $1.40 before 2027? Yes	Held	80	12¢	21¢	$16.80	$7.20	+75.0%	2027-01-01
Will edgeX reach $1.60 before 2027? Yes	Held	124.8617	7.22¢	12¢	$14.98	$5.96	+66.1%	2027-01-01
Will Chainlink dip to $10 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5.0708	53¢	65.5¢	$3.32	$2.34	+23.6%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	0.2454	65¢	88.5¢	$0.22	$1.46	+36.0%	2027-10-01
Will Solana hit $150 by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	4.98	35¢	63¢	$3.14	$1.39	+80.0%	2027-04-01
Will Chainlink dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	7.9028	45¢	44¢	$3.48	$1.08	-2.2%	2027-01-01
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026? No	Held	2.73	35¢	70¢	$1.91	$0.96	+100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October? No	Held	1.55	68¢	71.5¢	$1.11	$0.05	+5.1%	2026-11-01
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	831	7.99¢	8¢	$66.48	<$0.01	+0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Ethena dip to $0.08 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1.4651	57¢	56.5¢	$0.83	>-$0.01	-0.9%	2027-01-01
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027? No	Redeemable	1.19	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.19	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027? Yes	Held	4.95	15¢	8¢	$0.40	-$0.34	-46.7%	2026-12-31
Will AVAX dip to $5 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2.8334	46¢	7.5¢	$0.21	-$0.36	-83.7%	2027-01-01
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October? Yes	Held	20.64	45¢	43¢	$8.88	-$0.41	-4.4%	2026-11-01
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	5.3539	58¢	55¢	$2.94	-$1.41	-5.2%	2028-01-01
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in October? No	Held	18.45	63¢	54.5¢	$10.06	-$1.77	-13.5%	2026-11-01
Will Solana hit $150 by December 31, 2027? No	Held	21	38¢	25¢	$5.25	-$2.53	-34.2%	2028-01-01
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December? Yes	Held	540	14¢	13.5¢	$72.90	-$2.70	-3.6%	2026-12-31
Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	26	55.88¢	39.5¢	$10.27	-$4.11	-29.3%	2027-10-01
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? No	Held	72	61.96¢	55.5¢	$39.96	-$4.65	-10.4%	2027-01-01
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027? Yes	Held	150	80¢	76.5¢	$114.75	-$5.25	-4.4%	2027-01-01
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.50 in September? Yes	Redeemable	450.2	24.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.45	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will AVAX dip to $6 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	47.0604	60.41¢	48¢	$22.59	-$5.84	-20.5%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum hit $6k by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	121	24.95¢	19.5¢	$23.59	-$6.60	-21.9%	2027-10-01
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October? Yes	Held	401	33.06¢	30.5¢	$122.31	-$7.81	-7.8%	2026-11-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? Yes	Held	25	43¢	11¢	$2.75	-$8.00	-74.4%	2026-12-31
US Dollar Index (DXY) Up or Down on October 7? Down	Redeemable	40	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.26	-100.0%	2026-10-07
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027? Yes	Held	25.99	53¢	17.5¢	$4.55	-$9.23	-67.0%	2026-12-31
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.00 in September? Yes	Redeemable	102.13	9.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.20	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Ethereum hit $6k by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	172.01	31.11¢	24.5¢	$42.14	-$11.13	-21.3%	2028-01-01
Will AVAX dip to $7 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	42	80¢	43¢	$18.06	-$15.54	-46.3%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	53.2048	45.98¢	15.5¢	$8.25	-$16.01	-66.3%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? Yes	Held	300	25.4¢	19.6¢	$58.80	-$16.97	-22.8%	2027-01-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	504.07	3.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.82	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 30? No	Redeemable	499.263	3.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.92	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $57 Week of October 5 2026? Yes	Held	164	20¢	8¢	$13.12	-$19.68	-60.0%	2026-10-09
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in October? Yes	Held	506	33.45¢	29.5¢	$149.27	-$20.01	-11.8%	2026-11-01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in October? Yes	Held	1,329.369	5.11¢	3.6¢	$47.86	-$20.10	-29.6%	2026-11-01
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027? Yes	Held	150	66¢	52.5¢	$78.75	-$20.25	-20.5%	2027-01-01
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.50 in September? Yes	Redeemable	96	29.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.29	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	500	4.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.00	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Zcash dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	652.61	21.64¢	18¢	$117.47	-$23.79	-16.8%	2027-01-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 1? No	Redeemable	614.45	3.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.04	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? Yes	Held	755.6772	51.88¢	47.5¢	$358.95	-$26.52	-8.4%	2026-12-31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes	Held	800.83	12.99¢	9.5¢	$76.08	-$28.02	-26.9%	2027-01-01
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.00 in September? Yes	Redeemable	201.3181	15.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.44	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? Yes	Held	408.9977	35¢	26.9¢	$110.02	-$31.89	-23.1%	2026-12-31
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	262.1	12.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.34	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	540	5.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.58	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September? Yes	Redeemable	831.6	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.16	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1? Yes	Redeemable	620.47	7.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.94	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.00 in September? Yes	Redeemable	305.5057	27.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.30	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October? Yes	Held	305.19	40.79¢	24¢	$73.25	-$51.25	-41.2%	2026-11-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? No	Redeemable	1,645.1425	3.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$52.83	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 7? Up	Redeemable	851.96	6.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.02	-100.0%	2026-10-07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 5? Yes	Redeemable	1,074.8063	5.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$61.29	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Zcash dip to $400 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	214.14	36.82¢	7.5¢	$16.06	-$62.79	-79.6%	2027-01-01
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 7? Up	Redeemable	1,000	6.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.00	-100.0%	2026-10-07
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	716.16	9.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$67.78	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September? Yes	Redeemable	340.81	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$68.16	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	800	8.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$72.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 101.00 in September? Yes	Redeemable	301	24.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$75.46	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	915.57	8.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$76.79	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in September? Yes	Redeemable	300	27.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$82.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? Up	Redeemable	588.9633	14.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$82.55	-100.0%	2026-10-07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8? Yes	Held	853.21	13.37¢	3.35¢	$28.58	-$85.53	-75.0%	2026-10-08
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in September? Yes	Redeemable	782.56	10.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.27	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2? Yes	Redeemable	999.9964	8.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$88.00	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.07% in September? No	Redeemable	229.3211	38.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$89.64	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,625.83	24.73¢	18.5¢	$300.78	-$99.29	-25.2%	2027-01-01
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	646.73	15.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$101.70	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	850	14.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$119.50	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September? Yes	Redeemable	352.6269	37.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$121.31	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of October 5 2026? Yes	Held	813.57	24.99¢	9¢	$73.22	-$130.17	-64.0%	2026-10-09
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September? Yes	Redeemable	342.35	38.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$134.73	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 2? No	Redeemable	1,064.83	12.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.13	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? Yes	Held	1,027.7828	31.77¢	17.5¢	$179.86	-$146.71	-44.9%	2026-10-09
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $57 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	939.59	16.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$161.00	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 7? Yes	Held	1,122	14.52¢	0.05¢	$0.56	-$162.40	-99.7%	2026-10-08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 2? No	Redeemable	1,044.79	14.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$162.98	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	500	34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$174.49	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027? Yes	Held	904.97	40.76¢	21¢	$190.04	-$177.48	-48.5%	2026-12-31
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of September 28 2026? Yes	Redeemable	728.82	31.25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$234.09	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 7? Yes	Held	1,623.9671	17.23¢	0.05¢	$0.81	-$279.03	-99.7%	2026-10-08
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September? Yes	Redeemable	848	36.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$315.79	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September? Yes	Redeemable	1,146.95	37.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$433.68	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,013.3066	37.74¢	10¢	$201.33	-$824.91	-73.5%	2027-01-01

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