Wallet ledger

0xa18c…d792

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$10.9K

Win rate

80%

Realized edge

+0.106

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.106 across 44 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.03, +0.24]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (82 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Open	8,284	67¢	$1.3K	+23%	2027-01-03
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No	Open	17,187	94¢	$512	+3%	2026-10-01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No	Open	14,999	84¢	$475	+4%	2027-01-01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No	Open	40,000	92¢	$172	+0%	2026-12-31
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No	Open	2,500	87¢	$150	+7%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by September 30? No	Open	2,500	91¢	$139	+6%	2026-10-01
Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	3,036	92¢	$108	+4%	2026-12-31
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? No	Open	739	80¢	$69	+12%	2027-07-31
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? No	Open	994	92¢	$67	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No	Open	2,410	80¢	$66	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	1,159	88¢	$61	+6%	2026-12-31
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No	Open	1,664	86¢	$58	+4%	2026-12-31
GTA VI released by October 31? No	Open	4,375	97¢	$52	+1%	2026-10-31
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Open	602	77¢	$45	+10%	2027-01-01
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes	Open	1,000	93¢	$40	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,500	93¢	$38	+2%	2025-12-31
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	200	67¢	$35	+26%	2026-10-31
Nick Fuentes federally charged? No	Open	2,428	98¢	$33	+1%	2026-09-30
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No	Open	2,500	97¢	$30	+1%	2026-10-01
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Open	1,500	95¢	$29	+2%	2026-12-31
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? No	Open	1,000	89¢	$25	+3%	2026-12-31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? No	Open	60	56¢	$25	+74%	2026-09-01
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on August 31? No	Open	79	70¢	$22	+40%	2026-08-31
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No	Open	100	60¢	$22	+37%	1970-01-01
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,885	92¢	$22	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31? No	Open	500	86¢	$21	+5%	2026-08-31
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? No	Open	1,293	95¢	$19	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	500	82¢	$18	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31? No	Open	500	94¢	$14	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? No	Open	880	65¢	$13	+2%	2026-09-13
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No	Open	869	93¢	$13	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes	Open	450	94¢	$11	+3%	2026-12-31
Discord IPO before 2027? No	Open	31	43¢	$9	+65%	2026-12-31
Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31? No	Open	100	88¢	$9	+10%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31? No	Open	500	96¢	$8	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? No	Open	166	75¢	$7	+6%	2027-01-01
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? No	Open	57	85¢	$5	+10%	2026-12-31
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No	Open	880	95¢	$5	+1%	2027-01-01
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No	Open	606	95¢	$4	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? No	Open	751	51¢	$4	+1%	2027-05-30
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Open	209	96¢	$4	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? No	Open	100	94¢	$4	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027? No	Open	100	96¢	$3	+3%	1970-01-01
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? No	Open	381	97¢	$3	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship? No	Open	285	62¢	$2	+1%	2027-05-30
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No	Open	130	95¢	$2	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	15	86¢	$2	+12%	2026-09-20
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No	Open	27	82¢	$2	+7%	1970-01-01
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027? No	Open	100	96¢	$1	+2%	1970-01-01
US x China Military clash before 2027? No	Open	181	95¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Shakira's monthly listeners figure hit 115m by August 31? No	Open	93	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Open	226	88¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No	Open	225	97¢	$1	+0%	2026-10-22
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No	Open	9	79¢	$1	+8%	2027-06-30
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	15	89¢	$1	+4%	2026-12-31
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No	Open	5	74¢	$1	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes	Open	10	95¢	$0	+3%	2026-06-01
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	14	88¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Is Earth flat? No	Open	32	99¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No	Open	4	94¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Shakira's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by August 31? No	Open	99	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-31
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? No	Open	24	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No	Open	5	93¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No	Open	3,390	95¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	6	95¢	-$0	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No	Open	100	98¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30? No	Open	5	99¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-30
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No	Open	28	52¢	-$0	-3%	2026-12-31
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No	Open	100	66¢	-$3	-4%	2026-10-01
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	20	22¢	-$3	-57%	2026-09-20
Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass? No	Open	30	80¢	-$3	-14%	2026-11-03
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	1,000	98¢	-$4	-0%	2028-11-07
Chud the Builder convicted? No	Open	172	89¢	-$5	-3%	2027-07-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Open	900	95¢	-$9	-1%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31? Yes	Open	100	30¢	-$27	-90%	2026-08-31
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No	Open	1,000	90¢	-$30	-3%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? Yes	Open	100	67¢	-$66	-98%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No	Open	2,538	94¢	-$73	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31? No	Open	888	50¢	-$102	-23%	2027-01-01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Open	37,320	68¢	-$200	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No	Open	14,705	50¢	-$271	-4%	2027-05-30
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? No	Open	2,707	54¢	-$388	-27%	2027-01-01

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →