Wallet ledger

0xa0bc…d428

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$19.3K

Win rate

37%

Realized edge

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (120 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,592	43¢	$205	+13%	2027-01-01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	2,199	85¢	$135	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No	Open	587	69¢	$118	+29%	2027-01-01
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? No	Open	462	68¢	$86	+27%	2026-11-01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,500	90¢	$73	+2%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,055	77¢	$69	+8%	2026-12-31
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? No	Open	220	46¢	$52	+51%	2027-01-01
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No	Open	1,300	91¢	$36	+3%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No	Open	530	94¢	$27	+5%	2026-09-01
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? Yes	Open	700	69¢	$27	+6%	2026-09-30
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	478	29¢	$25	+18%	2026-09-20
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No	Open	1,000	92¢	$25	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,111	18¢	$20	+10%	2026-10-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? Yes	Open	916	17¢	$19	+12%	2026-10-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No	Open	300	77¢	$17	+7%	2027-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? No	Open	263	84¢	$14	+7%	2026-10-01
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? No	Open	688	98¢	$13	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? No	Open	232	85¢	$11	+5%	2026-08-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes	Open	300	67¢	$10	+5%	2026-12-31
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes	Open	300	57¢	$10	+6%	2026-09-20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	408	16¢	$8	+12%	2026-09-15
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	717	14¢	$8	+8%	2027-01-01
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? No	Open	216	93¢	$8	+4%	2026-10-01
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	274	97¢	$8	+3%	2026-07-31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No	Open	300	97¢	$7	+2%	2026-09-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No	Open	200	96¢	$6	+3%	2026-09-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No	Open	250	23¢	$6	+11%	2026-09-30
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No	Open	1,778	96¢	$5	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	16,629	0¢	$5	+12%	2026-09-30
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No	Open	95	92¢	$4	+5%	2026-09-01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? No	Open	400	99¢	$4	+1%	2026-09-01
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	100	52¢	$4	+8%	2026-08-24
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	156	29¢	$4	+9%	2027-01-01
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? Yes	Open	360	8¢	$4	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Open	1,390	0¢	$3	+94%	2026-12-31
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No	Open	1,078	98¢	$3	+0%	2026-10-01
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026? No	Open	127	96¢	$3	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No	Open	175	92¢	$3	+2%	2026-12-31
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? No	Open	522	98¢	$3	+1%	2026-10-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	500	12¢	$2	+4%	2026-09-08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Open	2,051	96¢	$2	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Open	100	94¢	$2	+3%	2026-12-31
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No	Open	9	58¢	$2	+41%	2026-12-31
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August? No	Open	199	98¢	$2	+1%	2026-08-31
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? No	Open	58	76¢	$2	+5%	2026-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No	Open	400	88¢	$2	+1%	2027-12-31
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes	Open	387	14¢	$2	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No	Open	900	98¢	$2	+0%	2026-09-30
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? No	Open	300	90¢	$2	+1%	2026-12-31
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No	Open	220	96¢	$2	+1%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	300	83¢	$2	+1%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? No	Open	300	98¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-15
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026? No	Open	38	95¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Yes	Open	28	87¢	$1	+4%	2026-10-27
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,849	0¢	$1	+14%	2026-09-30
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes	Open	1,000	0¢	$0	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? No	Open	25	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Syria by August 31, 2026? No	Open	20	97¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
António Guterres out by December 31? No	Open	2	74¢	$0	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	48	96¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Will A Just Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections? Yes	Open	1	1¢	$0	+76%	2026-09-20
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,840	0¢	-$0	-12%	2026-09-30
Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026? No	Open	100	95¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No	Open	106	7¢	-$1	-7%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No	Open	200	94¢	-$1	-0%	2026-10-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	2,032	0¢	-$1	-50%	2026-09-30
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in August 2026? No	Open	116	99¢	-$1	-1%	2026-08-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes	Open	300	90¢	-$2	-1%	2026-08-31
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Open	100	91¢	-$2	-2%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Yes	Open	300	15¢	-$2	-3%	2026-10-01
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? No	Open	108	90¢	-$2	-2%	2026-09-15
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	157	6¢	-$3	-33%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	300	45¢	-$3	-2%	2026-09-30
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No	Open	1,591	84¢	-$4	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Open	100	89¢	-$5	-6%	2026-12-31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Yes	Open	129	5¢	-$5	-85%	2026-08-31
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No	Open	300	49¢	-$8	-5%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? No	Open	193	44¢	-$8	-9%	2027-01-01
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No	Open	210	77¢	-$9	-6%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes	Open	453	3¢	-$10	-82%	2026-12-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes	Open	3,243	0¢	-$11	-68%	2026-12-31
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? Yes	Open	500	10¢	-$11	-23%	2026-08-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes	Open	554	3¢	-$15	-85%	2026-12-31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Yes	Open	500	7¢	-$21	-63%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? Yes	Open	268	13¢	-$21	-61%	2026-12-31
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	2,472	10¢	-$22	-9%	2026-12-31
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2028? No	Open	400	92¢	-$22	-6%	2026-12-31
Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	500	14¢	-$24	-34%	2026-08-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes	Open	400	8¢	-$25	-77%	2026-09-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Open	500	32¢	-$25	-16%	2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	300	36¢	-$28	-26%	2026-12-31
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,358	3¢	-$31	-75%	2026-09-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Open	700	11¢	-$33	-42%	2026-10-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	1,111	94¢	-$40	-4%	2026-09-20
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	276	46¢	-$41	-33%	2026-09-15
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,600	51¢	-$47	-4%	2027-01-01
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 Yes	Open	600	19¢	-$48	-42%	2026-12-31
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes	Open	1,262	13¢	-$52	-33%	2026-12-31
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Yes	Open	264	24¢	-$53	-84%	2026-09-01
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No	Open	500	78¢	-$53	-14%	2026-12-31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,111	20¢	-$54	-24%	2028-11-07
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No	Open	561	31¢	-$56	-33%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? Yes	Open	1,500	7¢	-$57	-52%	2026-09-30
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	3,080	12¢	-$63	-17%	2026-09-20
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	700	59¢	-$70	-17%	1970-01-01
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Open	400	28¢	-$74	-66%	2026-12-31
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	2,036	11¢	-$77	-35%	2026-09-20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Open	700	44¢	-$80	-26%	2026-12-31
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Open	400	31¢	-$82	-66%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,537	8¢	-$93	-80%	2026-09-30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,150	10¢	-$95	-79%	2026-10-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	3,100	12¢	-$114	-31%	2028-11-07
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes	Open	500	27¢	-$125	-91%	2026-09-01
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes	Open	1,686	35¢	-$141	-24%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	1,600	22¢	-$160	-47%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	21¢	-$179	-87%	2026-09-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Open	1,200	21¢	-$182	-73%	2026-09-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	24¢	-$225	-93%	2026-09-01
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	2,895	19¢	-$323	-58%	2026-09-20
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,365	41¢	-$395	-70%	2026-12-31

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