Wallet positions

0xa0bc…d428

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

116

Realized PnL

-$109.83

Win rate

47.4%

Realized edge

-3.6 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -3.6 pp across 116 resolved positions, 95% CI [-9.9, +2.7], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

274 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:19:09 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Held	2,052.3928	91.77¢	94¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+2.4%	2027-01-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,619.0309	13.21¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Yes	Redeemable	1,820.6306	2.62¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-04-15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	1,111.0074	84.27¢	84.5¢	$938.80	$1.0K	+0.3%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,040.2001	3.84¢	0¢	$0.00	$811.94	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	11,871.1951	1.77¢	0¢	$0.00	$763.93	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,349.6662	10.25¢	0¢	$0.00	$742.45	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No	Held	720.0097	51.79¢	82¢	$590.41	$696.52	+58.3%	2027-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes	Redeemable	829.99	23.13¢	0¢	$0.00	$400.47	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,000.0033	96.89¢	96.85¢	$1.9K	$397.68	-0.1%	2027-01-01
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,999.9936	6.47¢	0¢	$0.00	$338.04	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,933.6501	2.9¢	0¢	$0.00	$316.30	-100.0%	2026-06-17
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? No	Held	502.9994	75.39¢	91.5¢	$460.24	$232.37	+21.4%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	4,596.5624	4.92¢	0¢	$0.00	$209.03	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Held	1,007.4075	96.01¢	97.75¢	$984.74	$173.39	+1.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Held	311.0011	94.19¢	94.5¢	$293.90	$163.74	+0.3%	2027-01-01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No	Redeemable	129.0616	34.5¢	0¢	$0.00	$159.81	-100.0%	2026-09-04
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? Yes	Redeemable	300.0038	15.78¢	0¢	$0.00	$149.39	-100.0%	2026-07-13
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No	Held	550.1787	91.99¢	91.5¢	$503.41	$126.07	-0.5%	2027-01-01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No	Held	20.1045	64.57¢	84.5¢	$16.99	$118.61	+30.9%	2026-12-31
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,044.26	53.53¢	64¢	$668.33	$109.33	+19.6%	2027-01-01
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No	Held	2,204.62	91.77¢	95.65¢	$2.1K	$85.40	+4.2%	2027-01-01
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No	Held	500.167	91.6¢	93.5¢	$467.66	$84.03	+2.1%	2027-01-01
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	388.3512	1.2¢	3.95¢	$15.34	$72.53	+229.2%	2030-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	150.0151	35.66¢	36.5¢	$54.76	$68.25	+2.3%	2026-10-28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	643.6933	11.27¢	0¢	$0.00	$66.74	-100.0%	2026-07-18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,015.4155	15.9¢	0¢	$0.00	$64.27	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,419.6644	1.52¢	0¢	$0.00	$60.04	-100.0%	2026-04-30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	675.007	30.45¢	20.5¢	$138.38	$54.19	-32.7%	2026-11-01
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	55.245	40.92¢	0¢	$0.00	$50.62	-100.0%	2026-10-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	957.6968	5.39¢	0¢	$0.00	$42.30	-100.0%	2026-07-11
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) Yes	Held	400.0136	30.24¢	16.5¢	$66.00	$40.99	-45.5%	2026-10-31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No	Held	600	81.16¢	84.5¢	$507.00	$38.00	+4.1%	2027-01-01
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? No	Held	817.82	79.03¢	83¢	$678.79	$32.40	+5.0%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	1,620.3612	7¢	8.5¢	$137.73	$31.90	+21.4%	2026-12-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? Yes	Held	300	80¢	90.5¢	$271.50	$31.50	+13.1%	2026-10-16
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? No	Held	693.4	92.88¢	96.85¢	$671.56	$27.51	+4.3%	2026-10-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	455.1982	50.75¢	49.5¢	$225.32	$25.68	-2.5%	2027-07-01
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	404.2786	11¢	17¢	$68.73	$24.26	+54.5%	2027-01-01
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No	Held	299.99	77.6¢	84¢	$251.99	$24.00	+8.2%	2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? No	Redeemable	32.5059	39.99¢	0¢	$0.00	$22.19	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? Yes	Redeemable	1,919.872	9.83¢	0¢	$0.00	$22.11	-100.0%	2026-07-24
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? No	Held	620.01	90.99¢	93.5¢	$579.71	$21.11	+2.7%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.9546	15.38¢	0¢	$0.00	$20.01	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? No	Held	200	74¢	84¢	$168.00	$20.00	+13.5%	2026-11-01
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	145.13	16.54¢	18.5¢	$26.85	$19.20	+11.8%	2027-01-01
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3.0533	95.99¢	97.5¢	$2.98	$19.08	+1.6%	2027-01-01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	128.65	5¢	0¢	$0.00	$18.90	-100.0%	2026-09-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	499.9971	33¢	36.5¢	$182.50	$17.50	+10.6%	2026-12-01
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No	Redeemable	4.4133	52.42¢	0¢	$0.00	$17.22	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027? No	Held	69.5413	33¢	50.5¢	$35.12	$15.37	+53.0%	2027-04-01
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	232	13¢	19.25¢	$44.66	$14.50	+48.1%	2027-01-01
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No	Held	100	77¢	89.5¢	$89.50	$12.50	+16.2%	2026-11-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Held	1,816.9691	0.26¢	0.15¢	$2.73	$12.00	-43.9%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No	Held	500	92.2¢	94.5¢	$472.50	$11.50	+2.5%	2026-11-01
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No	Held	1,110.82	95.69¢	96.7¢	$1.1K	$11.19	+1.1%	2026-12-31
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31? No	Held	141	81.82¢	89.5¢	$126.19	$10.82	+9.4%	2026-12-31
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? Yes	Held	975.88	7.16¢	7.35¢	$71.73	$10.46	+2.6%	2027-02-01
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	724.86	3.87¢	5.3¢	$38.42	$10.32	+36.7%	2026-11-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? No	Held	96.92	88¢	98.3¢	$95.27	$10.31	+11.7%	2026-10-31
Iran leadership change by October 31? No	Held	200	94¢	98.15¢	$196.30	$8.30	+4.4%	2026-11-01
Houthi military action against Mecca by October 31, 2026? No	Held	321.91	94.75¢	97.1¢	$312.57	$7.54	+2.5%	2026-10-31
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Turkmenistan? Yes	Held	21	14¢	48¢	$10.08	$7.14	+242.9%	2026-10-11
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes	Redeemable	1,260.3472	3.47¢	0¢	$0.00	$6.85	-100.0%	2026-07-16
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? No	Held	150	85.99¢	90.5¢	$135.75	$6.75	+5.2%	2026-10-16
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? No	Held	100	85¢	90.5¢	$90.50	$5.50	+6.5%	2027-01-01
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? No	Held	300	90.2¢	92¢	$276.00	$5.40	+2.0%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Syria by October 31, 2026? No	Held	400	95¢	96.3¢	$385.20	$5.20	+1.4%	2026-10-31
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No	Held	396.9	94¢	95.3¢	$378.25	$5.16	+1.4%	2027-01-01
António Guterres out by December 31? No	Held	24.56	53.33¢	71.5¢	$17.56	$4.46	+34.1%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No	Held	800	91¢	91.5¢	$732.00	$4.00	+0.5%	2026-11-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	441.54	3¢	0¢	$0.00	$3.68	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	110.51	8¢	11¢	$12.16	$3.32	+37.5%	2028-01-01
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? No	Held	109.8018	93.83¢	96.8¢	$106.29	$3.26	+3.2%	2026-11-01
Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026? No	Held	132	91¢	93¢	$122.76	$2.64	+2.2%	2026-12-31
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026? No	Held	45.95	88.48¢	94¢	$43.19	$2.54	+6.2%	2026-11-01
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? No	Held	72.4	92¢	95.5¢	$69.14	$2.53	+3.8%	2026-10-18
Will Onimusha: Way of the Sword win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? Yes	Held	299.9789	1.1¢	1.9¢	$5.70	$2.40	+72.7%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes	Held	2,054.1333	0.24¢	0.35¢	$7.19	$2.08	+40.8%	2027-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes	Held	199.99	17¢	18¢	$36.00	$2.00	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	385.36	2.8¢	3.3¢	$12.72	$1.93	+17.9%	2027-04-01
Plague case in US by December 31? No	Held	385	86.51¢	87¢	$334.95	$1.85	+0.6%	2027-01-01
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No	Held	508.91	96.1¢	96.45¢	$490.84	$1.78	+0.4%	2027-01-01
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	235.13	0¢	0.65¢	$1.53	$1.53	0.0%	2027-04-01
Putin visits US by December 31, 2026? No	Held	300	90¢	90.5¢	$271.50	$1.50	+0.6%	2027-01-01
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31? No	Held	14.9807	74¢	82.5¢	$12.36	$1.27	+11.5%	2027-01-01
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No	Held	428.54	96.5¢	96.55¢	$413.76	$0.85	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	581.07	88.42¢	88.5¢	$514.25	$0.46	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in Turkmenistan? Yes	Held	41	15.46¢	16.5¢	$6.76	$0.42	+6.7%	2026-10-11
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No	Held	157.68	94.48¢	94.6¢	$149.17	$0.18	+0.1%	2026-12-31
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? No	Held	300	93¢	93¢	$279.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Resident Evil Requiem win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? Yes	Held	299.9975	13¢	13¢	$39.00	$0.00	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	100	29¢	29¢	$29.00	$0.00	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will A Just Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections? Yes	Redeemable	1.26	1.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.02	-99.5%	2027-08-01
Will Russia win the UEFA EURO 2028? Yes	Held	280.01	0.09¢	0.05¢	$0.14	-$0.14	-49.9%	2028-07-24
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	29.9888	3.7¢	2.65¢	$0.79	-$0.31	-28.4%	2027-01-01
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	156.8	5.85¢	5.65¢	$8.86	-$0.33	-3.6%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? Yes	Held	303	0.6¢	0.15¢	$0.45	-$0.49	-75.0%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Held	100	19¢	18.5¢	$18.50	-$0.50	-2.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 20? Yes	Redeemable	48.04	1.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.62	-100.0%	2026-09-21
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes	Held	617.4948	1.1¢	0.25¢	$1.54	-$0.94	-77.3%	2027-01-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	200	33¢	32.5¢	$65.00	-$1.00	-1.5%	2026-12-01
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027? No	Held	945.3558	95.92¢	95.55¢	$903.29	-$1.10	-0.4%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? Yes	Held	314.8871	0.82¢	0.45¢	$1.42	-$1.17	-45.2%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	300	12¢	6.5¢	$19.50	-$1.50	-45.8%	2026-11-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,031.54	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.03	-100.0%	2026-10-01
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Held	396.54	96.62¢	95.8¢	$379.89	-$3.26	-0.8%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	8.77	42.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.86	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026? No	Held	1,000.55	99.8¢	99.4¢	$994.55	-$4.00	-0.4%	2026-10-05
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	194.28	8.09¢	6¢	$11.66	-$4.06	-25.8%	2026-11-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,839.87	0.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.18	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,555.0858	22.78¢	22.5¢	$349.89	-$4.47	-1.3%	2027-02-01
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	130	3.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.17	-100.0%	2026-09-15
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? No	Held	389.9835	32¢	30.5¢	$118.94	-$5.85	-4.7%	2027-07-01
Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season? No	Held	100	69¢	62¢	$62.00	-$7.00	-10.1%	2027-06-15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	176.75	4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.07	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? No	Redeemable	702.1739	1.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.15	-100.0%	2026-08-04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No	Redeemable	19.99	39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.80	-100.0%	2026-06-19
Nothing Ever Happens: October Something	Held	399.9882	7.99¢	6¢	$24.00	-$8.00	-25.0%	2026-10-31
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? No	Held	488	76.35¢	74.5¢	$363.56	-$9.06	-2.4%	2027-01-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes	Held	3,242.9013	0.47¢	0.15¢	$4.86	-$10.58	-68.5%	2027-01-01
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? No	Redeemable	25	43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.75	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by May 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,000	1.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	921.4968	3.77¢	2.55¢	$23.50	-$11.31	-32.5%	2027-04-01
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	982.44	2.4¢	1.2¢	$11.79	-$11.70	-50.0%	2027-04-01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,399.9472	4.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.93	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Yes	Redeemable	500	2.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.00	-100.0%	2026-07-14
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes	Redeemable	49	28.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.71	-100.0%	2026-07-10
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	50.86	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.75	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes	Held	199.99	17¢	9.5¢	$19.00	-$15.00	-44.1%	2026-12-31
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? Yes	Redeemable	300	5.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.53	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	137.23	12.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.81	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	499.9899	3.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? Yes	Held	500	9¢	5¢	$25.00	-$20.00	-44.4%	2026-11-01
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No	Held	509	32.99¢	29¢	$147.61	-$20.36	-12.1%	2029-01-20
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No	Redeemable	100	21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.50	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? Yes	Held	277.8658	12.62¢	4.6¢	$12.78	-$22.31	-63.6%	2026-12-31
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	437	5.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.41	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24) Yes	Redeemable	99.9924	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.00	-100.0%	2026-05-24
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No	Redeemable	252.7645	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.16	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election? Yes	Redeemable	184.4426	5.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$28.06	-100.0%	2026-10-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	449.994	44.99¢	41¢	$184.50	-$28.50	-8.9%	2026-11-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes	Redeemable	9,636.535	0.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.27	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Redeemable	200	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.00	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	62.0526	50.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.87	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	116	28.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.08	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	500	6.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.00	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	4,100.8938	1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.31	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	256.9705	38.91¢	25¢	$64.24	-$35.76	-35.8%	2026-10-31
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200	49¢	29.5¢	$59.00	-$39.00	-39.8%	2027-01-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	171.3858	40.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$39.32	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes	Redeemable	100	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.00	-100.0%	2026-05-30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	651.7772	57.53¢	49.95¢	$325.56	-$41.74	-13.2%	2027-01-01
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No	Redeemable	100	41.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.90	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	200	22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.00	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Yes	Redeemable	91.73	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.63	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	218.2	45.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.82	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	194.5	22.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.87	-100.0%	2026-09-15
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31? No	Redeemable	90	54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.60	-100.0%	2026-11-01
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,357.7795	1.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.73	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes	Redeemable	799.9351	6.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.99	-100.0%	2026-06-19
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	500	9.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$49.00	-100.0%	2026-09-01
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No	Redeemable	153.9357	34.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.16	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No	Redeemable	295.65	17.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$54.96	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes	Redeemable	500	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$55.00	-100.0%	2026-07-14
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	72.42	75.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$55.17	-100.0%	2026-06-30
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? Yes	Redeemable	199.9988	28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.00	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? No	Redeemable	172.9311	31.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$57.19	-100.0%	2026-08-17
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	200	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$58.00	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes	Held	300.0062	13.18¢	6.5¢	$19.50	-$59.21	-50.7%	2027-01-01
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	899.9989	6.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,200	5.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.00	-100.0%	2026-08-16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	686.2285	9.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.31	-100.0%	2026-06-18
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	264.168	23.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.77	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes	Held	1,399.9792	11.14¢	6.5¢	$91.00	-$65.00	-41.7%	2026-11-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,444.5227	2.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.16	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	593.28	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.26	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	409.99	16.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$67.50	-100.0%	2026-09-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,199.9439	5.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$67.59	-100.0%	2026-07-25
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Held	223.5543	31¢	13¢	$29.06	-$68.47	-58.1%	2027-01-01
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	588.5103	11.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$68.64	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	699.9896	11.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes	Redeemable	950.83	7.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.77	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? No	Redeemable	399.9995	17.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$72.44	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	609.3939	37.28¢	22.5¢	$137.11	-$72.95	-39.6%	2027-01-01
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes	Held	400	28¢	9.5¢	$38.00	-$74.00	-66.1%	2027-01-01
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	299.9902	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Yes	Redeemable	300	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.00	-100.0%	2026-04-21
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	3,800.0089	11.04¢	8.05¢	$305.90	-$78.46	-27.1%	2028-11-08
Will Trump praise Allah again by August 31? No	Redeemable	100	80¢	0¢	$0.00	-$80.00	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Yes	Redeemable	500	16.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$81.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	333.8372	35.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$83.85	-100.0%	2026-08-24
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? Yes	Held	999.984	20.89¢	12.5¢	$125.00	-$84.00	-40.2%	2026-10-16
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,518.66	2.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$86.58	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,697.1673	9.34¢	5.35¢	$144.30	-$87.92	-42.7%	2027-01-01
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	199.984	46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$91.99	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	500.0038	7.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$93.97	-100.0%	2026-04-15
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	999.9911	9.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$98.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.00	-100.0%	2026-05-27
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	400	25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.00	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,077.3857	9.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$101.02	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,186.559	4.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$101.52	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? No	Redeemable	572.0678	20.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$102.21	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Yes	Held	700	26.28¢	11.5¢	$80.50	-$103.50	-56.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes	Redeemable	85.668	4.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$103.66	-100.0%	2026-05-25
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	546.6081	19.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$103.98	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? No	Held	257.16	50.75¢	9.5¢	$24.43	-$106.08	-81.3%	2026-11-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes	Redeemable	980.55	11.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$106.18	-100.0%	2026-06-30
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance France	Redeemable	300	36.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$108.82	-100.0%	2026-07-14
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	190	58.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$111.60	-100.0%	2026-09-15
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes	Held	1,586.0849	34.03¢	27¢	$428.24	-$116.38	-20.7%	2027-01-04
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes	Held	1,511.1137	10.68¢	3.95¢	$59.69	-$118.98	-63.0%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Held	800.01	29.99¢	18.5¢	$148.00	-$122.05	-38.3%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,292.33	5.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$123.02	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,123.38	5.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$123.38	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	499.9897	58.57¢	34.5¢	$172.50	-$125.50	-41.1%	2026-11-04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.9838	24.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$125.59	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? No	Redeemable	400	32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$128.00	-100.0%	2026-06-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,699.9952	7.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$133.40	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	2,800	4.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$133.92	-100.0%	2026-07-20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No	Redeemable	599.9978	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$138.19	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Ethereum flipped in 2026? No	Redeemable	312.0061	49.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.48	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	200	48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$148.00	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	1,400	21.5¢	12¢	$168.00	-$150.00	-44.2%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	16.57¢	13.5¢	$135.00	-$151.00	-18.5%	2027-01-01
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No	Redeemable	749.9781	21.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$156.55	-100.0%	2026-03-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,079.14	5.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$171.85	-100.0%	2026-08-14
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Yes	Redeemable	534.807	20.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$173.04	-100.0%	2026-05-01
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? No	Redeemable	400	45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$180.00	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? Yes	Held	1,211.8231	25.52¢	10.5¢	$127.24	-$182.06	-58.9%	2026-11-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes	Redeemable	1,149.0003	12.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$184.90	-100.0%	2026-06-03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	699.9522	27.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$198.98	-100.0%	2026-08-23
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	969.24	16.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$200.28	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	5,140.8031	3.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$202.03	-100.0%	2026-08-15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	699.9732	35.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$204.99	-100.0%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,556.9323	11.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$207.39	-100.0%	2026-10-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,999.9965	9.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$210.45	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? No	Redeemable	499.9865	42.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$215.42	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	2,790.8378	7.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$220.52	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No	Redeemable	300	73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$228.00	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,300.006	13.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$238.83	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? No	Redeemable	3,399.9913	10.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$245.03	-100.0%	2026-06-01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$250.00	-100.0%	2026-05-29
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30? No	Redeemable	494.53	51.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$254.15	-100.0%	2026-09-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,197.036	19.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$262.87	-100.0%	2026-05-05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? No	Redeemable	999.9908	27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$270.00	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	299.999	93.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$280.00	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes	Redeemable	1,299.995	23.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$296.00	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	1,430.3292	34.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$319.26	-100.0%	2026-09-20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,499.9903	13.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$331.98	-100.0%	2026-08-15
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	758.78	44.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$336.98	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No	Redeemable	705.8446	47.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$338.43	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? No	Redeemable	499.983	69.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$348.69	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	400	52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$356.00	-100.0%	2026-06-15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	799.9996	37.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$400.41	-100.0%	2026-08-08
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? No	Redeemable	499.9859	78.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$414.49	-100.0%	2026-04-21
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? No	Redeemable	1,005.8882	23.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$416.07	-100.0%	2027-10-01
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No	Redeemable	999.9971	43.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$418.05	-100.0%	2026-06-08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? No	Redeemable	1,799.9843	23.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$428.15	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No	Redeemable	600	73.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$444.00	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,501.8816	3.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$449.99	-100.0%	2026-05-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	3,233.1996	16.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$461.94	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	6,726.3292	7.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$468.88	-100.0%	2026-08-15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? No	Redeemable	2,785.2282	17.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$475.64	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,689.3877	9.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$481.93	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,293.7943	41.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$559.24	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No	Redeemable	672.28	87.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$591.23	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Redeemable	5,840.812	11.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$607.53	-100.0%	2026-09-20
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes	Redeemable	5,306.2549	17.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$681.89	-100.0%	2026-08-20
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,143.3893	22.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$728.71	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No	Redeemable	1,634.5789	81.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$975.67	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	14,591.3002	14.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	6,641.6953	63.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? No	Redeemable	9,384.6773	52.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.5K	-100.0%	2026-12-31

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