Wallet ledger

0x6864…294b

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$436

Win rate

53.7%

Realized edge

+0.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +0.1 pp across 41 resolved positions, 95% CI [-2.7, +10.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (201 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	10,000	50¢	$3.1K	+61%	2028-11-07
Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$238	+380%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$228	+364%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	300	6¢	$211	+1121%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$178	+284%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$158	+252%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 760-799 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$148	+236%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$144	+1395%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$103	+381%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$89	+329%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	8¢	$87	+111%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$82	+303%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	400	4¢	$75	+485%	2026-09-15
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	200	14¢	$71	+250%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	358	4¢	$70	+511%	2026-09-15
Will Elon tweet 720-759 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$68	+108%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	3,812	4¢	$66	+42%	2026-09-15
Will Elon tweet 960-999 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$66	+105%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$61	+225%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$56	+544%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$51	+498%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$50	+187%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$47	+452%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$47	+452%	2026-11-01
Will Elon tweet 1040-1079 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$42	+66%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$40	+383%	2026-11-01
Will Elon tweet 680-719 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$38	+60%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$33	+121%	2026-09-18
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	200	14¢	$29	+103%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	300	8¢	$29	+122%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	200	4¢	$25	+329%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$24	+82%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? No	Open	100	64¢	$19	+29%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 640-679 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$19	+30%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$18	+176%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? No	Open	800	96¢	$18	+2%	2028-01-01
Will Elon tweet 1000-1039 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,900	3¢	$15	+25%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	500	97¢	$13	+3%	2026-09-18
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No	Open	300	94¢	$13	+5%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	600	97¢	$12	+2%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$11	+42%	2026-09-18
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? No	Open	200	89¢	$11	+6%	2027-07-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	3,700	4¢	$10	+6%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 1080-1119 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	$10	+15%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	$8	+29%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in October 2026? No	Open	498	98¢	$8	+2%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	$7	+73%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	342	95¢	$6	+2%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	90¢	$6	+7%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	200	90¢	$6	+3%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	400	82¢	$4	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? No	Open	100	90¢	$4	+4%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	500	0¢	$2	+110%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	281	94¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	400	94¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in October 2026? No	Open	600	100¢	$2	+0%	2026-11-01
Will Elon tweet 360-399 times in September 2026? No	Open	3,400	100¢	$2	+0%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 400-439 times in September 2026? No	Open	3,200	100¢	$2	+0%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	80	90¢	$1	+2%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	25	80¢	$1	+6%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? No	Open	100	87¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	97¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	500	100¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	98¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	100	99¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	200	100¢	$1	+0%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	87¢	$1	+1%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	25	80¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	300	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-18
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	100	93¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	4	75¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in October 2026? No	Open	8	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-01
Will Elon tweet 280-319 times in September 2026? No	Open	2,400	100¢	$0	0%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	300	100¢	$0	0%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	700	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in October 2026? No	Open	100	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	20	2¢	-$0	-79%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$0	-3%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	4¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-15
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes	Open	50	66¢	-$0	-1%	2027-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	84¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-18
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	200	14¢	-$1	-2%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	110	99¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? No	Open	100	90¢	-$1	-1%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	90¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	100	96¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-18
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	100	81¢	-$2	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	100	2¢	-$2	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	100	2¢	-$2	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? No	Open	400	99¢	-$2	-1%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	186	78¢	-$2	-2%	2026-09-15
Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? No	Open	200	87¢	-$3	-2%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? No	Open	361	84¢	-$3	-1%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	100	4¢	-$4	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$4	-58%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	200	2¢	-$4	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$5	-45%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$5	-18%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$6	-54%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$6	-59%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	285	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	285	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	285	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	285	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	295	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$6	-61%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	300	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	305	2¢	-$6	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$7	-63%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$7	-65%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	1¢	-$7	-82%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	320	2¢	-$7	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	320	2¢	-$7	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	320	2¢	-$7	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	63¢	-$7	-6%	2027-07-01
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	420	2¢	-$7	-79%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	355	2¢	-$8	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	355	2¢	-$8	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	200	4¢	-$8	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	360	2¢	-$8	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	475	2¢	-$8	-75%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	371	2¢	-$8	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	420	2¢	-$8	-91%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	420	2¢	-$8	-91%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	420	2¢	-$8	-91%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	450	2¢	-$9	-91%	2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in October 2026? Yes	Open	450	2¢	-$10	-98%	2026-11-01
Will Elon tweet 1280-1319 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,992	3¢	-$10	-17%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 1120-1159 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	-$11	-17%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	300	4¢	-$11	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	300	4¢	-$11	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	300	4¢	-$11	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	300	4¢	-$11	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 1400 or more times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,236	3¢	-$13	-33%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$13	-49%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 600-639 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	-$14	-22%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$14	-51%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	500	4¢	-$14	-73%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	500	4¢	-$15	-79%	2026-09-18
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes	Open	200	14¢	-$17	-59%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	500	4¢	-$18	-96%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	500	4¢	-$18	-96%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	500	4¢	-$19	-99%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,300	3¢	-$20	-49%	2026-09-15
Will Elon tweet 1240-1279 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,992	3¢	-$20	-33%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 1160-1199 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,992	3¢	-$20	-33%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 1200-1239 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,992	3¢	-$20	-33%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	600	4¢	-$22	-95%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 1360-1399 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,971	3¢	-$22	-36%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	600	4¢	-$22	-96%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	600	4¢	-$22	-96%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,300	3¢	-$23	-69%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$24	-88%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$24	-90%	2026-09-18
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$24	-91%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 320-359 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	800	3¢	-$25	-98%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$26	-95%	2026-09-18
Will Elon tweet 200-239 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	851	3¢	-$26	-98%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 1320-1359 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,992	3¢	-$26	-42%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	700	4¢	-$27	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? No	Open	100	51¢	-$28	-54%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,200	2¢	-$28	-98%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	2,700	2¢	-$30	-57%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	800	4¢	-$30	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	900	4¢	-$34	-97%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	900	4¢	-$34	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	900	4¢	-$34	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	900	4¢	-$34	-99%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	900	4¢	-$34	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,900	2¢	-$36	-81%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,200	3¢	-$36	-90%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 480-519 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,224	3¢	-$36	-95%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,500	3¢	-$37	-87%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	4¢	-$37	-96%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,400	3¢	-$37	-91%	2026-09-15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	1,300	3¢	-$37	-95%	2026-09-15
Will Elon tweet 440-479 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,320	3¢	-$40	-97%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 520-559 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,438	3¢	-$41	-92%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,092	4¢	-$41	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 560-599 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	1,467	3¢	-$44	-95%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,500	5¢	-$50	-66%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,564	4¢	-$59	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon tweet 240-279 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	-$62	-98%	2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times in September 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	3¢	-$62	-98%	2026-10-01
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,700	4¢	-$65	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	2,584	3¢	-$69	-98%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	1,900	4¢	-$72	-99%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	3,000	3¢	-$84	-98%	2026-09-11
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	3,200	3¢	-$103	-98%	2026-09-11
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	10,000	50¢	-$3.1K	-61%	2028-11-07

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