Wallet ledger

0x6139…6b7a

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$7.7K

Win rate

44.2%

Realized edge

+4.3 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +4.3 pp across 43 resolved positions, 95% CI [-4.2, +13.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (262 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	292,113	30¢	$148.0K	+170%	2026-12-31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	72,277	36¢	$10.7K	+42%	2026-11-03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Open	15,293	37¢	$7.6K	+133%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	62,965	6¢	$4.4K	+112%	2028-11-07
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	72,776	24¢	$3.5K	+20%	1970-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No	Open	6,477	29¢	$2.4K	+126%	2026-11-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	20,348	34¢	$2.3K	+33%	2026-10-04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Open	8,894	18¢	$2.1K	+132%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	19,742	44¢	$1.7K	+20%	2026-11-03
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No	Open	6,000	65¢	$1.5K	+40%	2027-01-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? No	Open	4,097	40¢	$1.4K	+85%	2026-10-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	18,076	44¢	$1.3K	+16%	2026-11-03
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Open	4,952	71¢	$1.2K	+34%	2026-12-31
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Yes	Open	2,272	46¢	$1.1K	+109%	2026-10-01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Open	2,009	34¢	$1.0K	+150%	2027-01-01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	2,750	57¢	$989	+63%	2026-12-31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	1,686	32¢	$894	+166%	2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Open	2,182	48¢	$843	+81%	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No	Open	10,000	91¢	$835	+9%	2026-10-01
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No	Open	3,580	65¢	$775	+33%	2027-01-01
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	5,629	22¢	$747	+60%	2026-10-27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	7,500	21¢	$712	+45%	2026-10-28
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	816,184	1¢	$654	+9%	2028-11-07
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	1,323	13¢	$585	+340%	2026-12-31
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No	Open	1,801	13¢	$551	+228%	2026-10-04
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	2,509	5¢	$511	+403%	2027-02-06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? No	Open	962	34¢	$498	+153%	2026-10-01
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	10,440	10¢	$469	+45%	1970-01-01
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? Yes	Open	1,521	22¢	$375	+111%	2026-09-30
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	1,717	35¢	$372	+62%	2026-10-27
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	1,311	36¢	$346	+73%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,556	55¢	$335	+39%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No	Open	2,500	86¢	$331	+15%	2026-10-01
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? Yes	Open	457	23¢	$330	+315%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	12,449	58¢	$311	+4%	2028-11-07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	1,938	28¢	$295	+54%	2026-12-09
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Open	4,577	51¢	$267	+11%	2026-10-27
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	1,895	20¢	$255	+67%	2026-10-27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	7,500	50¢	$238	+6%	2026-09-16
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes	Open	1,739	18¢	$223	+73%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	12,500	51¢	$213	+3%	2026-09-16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	1,500	60¢	$193	+22%	2026-12-31
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes	Open	1,681	50¢	$188	+22%	2026-11-17
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? No	Open	2,628	12¢	$186	+60%	2027-02-06
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	1,300	15¢	$175	+91%	2027-01-01
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes	Open	494	9¢	$171	+370%	2026-10-04
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	411	58¢	$146	+61%	2026-12-31
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? No	Open	983	82¢	$140	+17%	2026-11-01
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	55,000	50¢	$138	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	21,893	2¢	$118	+26%	2028-11-07
Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election? No	Open	1,019	59¢	$109	+18%	2027-02-06
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? Yes	Open	496	11¢	$87	+157%	2027-01-15
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? No	Open	617	57¢	$86	+25%	2026-09-06
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	6,221	17¢	$85	+8%	2028-11-07
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No	Open	500	75¢	$83	+22%	2027-01-01
Will Mohammed Ashiru Isa win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	642	10¢	$78	+116%	2027-02-06
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election? No	Open	1,451	19¢	$77	+28%	2027-02-06
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Open	552	65¢	$77	+22%	2026-09-13
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? Yes	Open	250	1¢	$76	+2350%	2026-09-06
Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? No	Open	2,241	17¢	$76	+20%	2027-02-06
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? No	Open	872	21¢	$73	+41%	2027-02-06
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	106	26¢	$69	+254%	2026-09-30
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	1,938	58¢	$68	+6%	2028-11-07
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	1,500	9¢	$66	+49%	1970-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Open	1,563	20¢	$60	+20%	2027-01-27
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? Yes	Open	1,240	7¢	$58	+64%	2027-01-01
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? No	Open	528	84¢	$55	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	592	17¢	$44	+42%	2026-11-03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	8,149	7¢	$41	+7%	2026-09-30
Will Mohammed Umaru Bago win the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election? No	Open	722	21¢	$38	+25%	2027-02-06
Will Nwifuru Francis Ogbonna win the 2027 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election? No	Open	580	14¢	$37	+46%	2027-02-06
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes	Open	182	29¢	$36	+68%	2026-10-31
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No	Open	80	54¢	$33	+77%	2027-01-01
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election? No	Open	770	40¢	$32	+10%	2027-02-06
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election? No	Open	977	17¢	$30	+18%	2027-02-06
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	20,000	2¢	$30	+9%	2028-11-07
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	455	10¢	$29	+63%	2026-11-03
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	617	27¢	$28	+17%	2026-11-03
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	282	12¢	$27	+77%	2026-09-30
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	36	12¢	$25	+562%	2026-09-15
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? Yes	Open	250	9¢	$25	+106%	2026-09-21
Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election? No	Open	311	22¢	$24	+35%	2027-02-06
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes	Open	2,599	56¢	$22	+2%	2026-11-03
Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? No	Open	2,442	30¢	$22	+3%	2027-02-06
Will the Labour Party (LP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Open	60	65¢	$18	+46%	2027-01-16
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? No	Open	489	20¢	$17	+18%	2027-01-16
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? No	Open	250	86¢	$16	+8%	2027-01-01
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No	Open	221	87¢	$16	+8%	2027-01-01
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	544	30¢	$15	+9%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	505	10¢	$15	+30%	2026-11-03
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	338	10¢	$14	+40%	2026-09-15
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No	Open	100	51¢	$14	+26%	2027-10-24
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	2,500	26¢	$13	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	234	11¢	$12	+49%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	500	9¢	$12	+27%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	173	87¢	$10	+7%	2026-11-03
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No	Open	100	58¢	$9	+16%	2027-01-01
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election? No	Open	995	18¢	$9	+5%	2027-02-06
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? Yes	Open	118	15¢	$9	+47%	2026-11-03
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Open	1,004	24¢	$8	+3%	2027-01-16
Will Hembe Herman Iorwase C. win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	503	1¢	$8	+171%	2027-02-06
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	$7	+101%	2026-11-03
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 Yes	Open	1,200	17¢	$7	+3%	2027-01-01
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No	Open	382	54¢	$6	+3%	2026-11-07
Will Mustapha Gubio win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election? No	Open	747	14¢	$6	+5%	2027-02-06
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? No	Open	338	20¢	$5	+8%	2027-02-06
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 55% or more? Yes	Open	91	8¢	$5	+69%	2026-11-03
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? Yes	Open	291	0¢	$5	+394%	2027-01-16
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? Yes	Open	61	3¢	$5	+233%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%? No	Open	100	90¢	$5	+5%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	$4	+62%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 50%-55%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	$4	+62%	2026-11-03
Will Coffie Emeni Samuel win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	2,124	3¢	$4	+6%	2027-02-06
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election? No	Open	1,345	23¢	$4	+1%	2027-02-06
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	$3	+49%	2026-11-03
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	$3	+6%	2027-01-15
Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Open	2,067	0¢	$3	+52%	2027-01-16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Open	29	83¢	$3	+13%	2027-01-01
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election? No	Open	100	15¢	$3	+20%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	245	10¢	$3	+13%	2026-11-03
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	119	9¢	$2	+17%	2027-02-06
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Open	131	4¢	$2	+36%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	438	9¢	$2	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Danjuma Laah win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	68	0¢	$2	+1300%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 0%-3%? No	Open	25	84¢	$1	+5%	2026-11-03
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? No	Open	100	77¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	35	10¢	$1	+20%	2026-11-03
Will Ogboru Great Ovedje win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	10	0¢	$1	+3475%	2027-02-06
Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? No	Open	56	87¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 3%-6%? No	Open	20	84¢	$1	+4%	2026-11-03
Will John Sunday Sura win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	12	1¢	$1	+460%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 12% or more? Yes	Open	10	2¢	$0	+198%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 9%-12%? Yes	Open	10	2¢	$0	+175%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%? Yes	Open	10	2¢	$0	+168%	2026-11-03
Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat? Yes	Open	10	63¢	$0	+5%	2026-11-03
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? Yes	Open	60	5¢	$0	+10%	2026-12-31
Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? Yes	Open	21	3¢	$0	+44%	2027-01-16
Will the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Open	118	98¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-16
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	13	75¢	$0	+3%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? Yes	Open	43	61¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-04
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? Yes	Open	17	9¢	$0	+9%	2026-11-03
Will Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	8	5¢	$0	+29%	2027-02-06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No	Open	101	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	10	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-11-03
Will Babagana Buhari win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	19	2¢	$0	+5%	2027-02-06
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? No	Open	500	65¢	$0	0%	2026-09-06
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 0%-3%? No	Open	25	86¢	$0	0%	2026-11-03
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Open	3	4¢	$0	0%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 15%-25%? Yes	Open	6	8¢	-$0	-22%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	5	86¢	-$0	-3%	2026-11-03
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes	Open	15	3¢	-$0	-87%	2026-06-01
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat? Yes	Open	134	30¢	-$1	-2%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 25%-30%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	-$2	-22%	2026-11-03
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? Yes	Open	99	2¢	-$2	-88%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No	Open	445	93¢	-$2	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	540	16¢	-$2	-3%	2026-10-04
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes	Open	500	12¢	-$3	-4%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 0%-15%? Yes	Open	91	8¢	-$3	-38%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	750	4¢	-$3	-11%	1970-01-01
Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election? No	Open	783	16¢	-$3	-2%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election? Yes	Open	71	8¢	-$5	-89%	2026-11-03
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes	Open	300	43¢	-$5	-4%	2026-11-30
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	1,000	1¢	-$6	-55%	2026-10-27
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	500	7¢	-$6	-17%	2026-09-20
Will Jeremiah Akpan win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	2,051	3¢	-$7	-10%	2027-02-06
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? Yes	Open	2,170	7¢	-$9	-6%	2027-01-16
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? No	Open	50	81¢	-$10	-23%	2026-09-06
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? Yes	Open	100	19¢	-$10	-51%	2026-11-03
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	1,000	11¢	-$10	-9%	2026-09-20
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	205	10¢	-$11	-55%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	2,500	87¢	-$13	-1%	2026-11-03
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Open	634	88¢	-$13	-2%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	190	10¢	-$13	-69%	2026-11-03
Will Chinda Kingsley Ogundu win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election? No	Open	1,392	18¢	-$14	-5%	2027-02-06
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Open	238	25¢	-$15	-25%	2027-01-01
Will James Ene Nwannaji win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	485	15¢	-$15	-21%	2027-02-06
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? No	Open	37	71¢	-$16	-61%	2026-08-31
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,000	5¢	-$17	-37%	2026-09-30
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	21¢	-$18	-8%	2027-01-15
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Open	2,000	79¢	-$20	-1%	2026-09-13
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	500	9¢	-$21	-47%	1970-01-01
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	2,660	7¢	-$21	-12%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat? Yes	Open	500	14¢	-$27	-39%	2026-11-03
Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	2,201	12¢	-$28	-10%	2027-02-06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes	Open	560	11¢	-$31	-50%	2026-12-31
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,786	6¢	-$32	-32%	2027-01-01
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Open	1,000	7¢	-$32	-46%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? No	Open	500	15¢	-$35	-47%	2026-11-03
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	3,793	42¢	-$35	-2%	2027-01-01
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	-$36	-64%	2027-01-15
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	-$39	-70%	2027-01-15
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	-$40	-72%	2027-01-15
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? No	Open	426	74¢	-$42	-13%	2026-09-30
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes	Open	217	20¢	-$43	-98%	2026-11-03
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	988	20¢	-$44	-22%	2026-10-27
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	100	62¢	-$46	-73%	2026-12-31
Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	-$46	-82%	2027-01-15
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes	Open	17,794	10¢	-$48	-3%	2027-01-01
Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026? Yes	Open	500	11¢	-$49	-89%	2027-01-15
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	274	20¢	-$52	-95%	2026-11-03
Will Emmanuel Friday Ben win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	2,051	3¢	-$53	-82%	2027-02-06
Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	705	10¢	-$54	-77%	2026-11-03
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes	Open	2,064	17¢	-$57	-16%	2026-01-31
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Open	231	50¢	-$59	-52%	2027-01-01
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes	Open	255	26¢	-$60	-91%	2026-11-17
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	933	9¢	-$65	-76%	1970-01-01
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? Yes	Open	392	20¢	-$65	-84%	2026-09-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes	Open	13,605	9¢	-$67	-5%	2026-11-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? No	Open	5,822	15¢	-$68	-8%	2026-09-30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Open	379	20¢	-$68	-90%	2027-01-27
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? Yes	Open	1,238	6¢	-$70	-99%	2026-08-31
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Open	3,352	9¢	-$76	-26%	2027-01-01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	500	22¢	-$77	-70%	2026-12-31
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? Yes	Open	530	20¢	-$80	-75%	2026-08-31
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? Yes	Open	1,393	28¢	-$81	-21%	2026-08-31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	1,500	9¢	-$82	-60%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	1,000	9¢	-$83	-92%	1970-01-01
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? Yes	Open	609	20¢	-$88	-73%	2026-09-30
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes	Open	3,207	7¢	-$90	-40%	2027-01-01
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No	Open	348	27¢	-$92	-96%	2027-01-01
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes	Open	2,864	59¢	-$93	-6%	2026-11-07
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	483	20¢	-$94	-98%	2026-10-28
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No	Open	8,002	29¢	-$101	-4%	2027-01-16
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? Yes	Open	6,052	10¢	-$102	-17%	2026-11-01
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes	Open	152	74¢	-$109	-97%	2026-11-04
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes	Open	4,577	6¢	-$122	-47%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Open	8,101	25¢	-$129	-6%	2026-11-03
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	55,000	50¢	-$138	-1%	2028-11-07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? Yes	Open	3,750	5¢	-$151	-84%	2026-10-01
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Open	2,836	10¢	-$181	-61%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? Yes	Open	5,000	5¢	-$232	-93%	2026-09-15
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October? Yes	Open	4,503	11¢	-$233	-46%	2026-10-31
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? Yes	Open	1,764	15¢	-$250	-94%	2026-08-31
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? Yes	Open	3,960	12¢	-$263	-55%	2026-11-30
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes	Open	500	66¢	-$283	-86%	2026-12-31
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes	Open	504	63¢	-$288	-91%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? Yes	Open	6,692	12¢	-$295	-37%	2026-09-22
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Open	1,006	52¢	-$299	-57%	2026-12-31
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? No	Open	1,206	43¢	-$311	-60%	2026-12-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Open	20,694	5¢	-$313	-32%	2026-10-01
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September? Yes	Open	4,171	10¢	-$364	-84%	2026-09-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Open	10,738	18¢	-$394	-20%	2026-11-30
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	10,242	19¢	-$412	-21%	2026-10-27
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	7,216	11¢	-$440	-58%	2027-01-01
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Open	29,019	12¢	-$444	-12%	2027-01-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	24,361	50¢	-$549	-5%	2026-10-04
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes	Open	1,250	59¢	-$564	-77%	2026-11-01
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August? Yes	Open	5,278	13¢	-$706	-100%	2026-08-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Open	34,396	23¢	-$709	-9%	2027-01-01
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,825	27¢	-$709	-46%	2027-01-16
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes	Open	16,423	9¢	-$756	-51%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	14,308	8¢	-$805	-67%	2026-09-15
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Yes	Open	7,823	20¢	-$871	-57%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes	Open	18,507	12¢	-$913	-40%	2026-10-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	5,000	20¢	-$957	-96%	2026-10-28
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	4,554	37¢	-$1.4K	-82%	2026-12-31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes	Open	7,495	20¢	-$1.4K	-95%	2026-11-03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes	Open	98,815	20¢	-$4.3K	-22%	2027-01-01
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	195,829	6¢	-$4.6K	-40%	2028-11-07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	49,927	16¢	-$6.0K	-73%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes	Open	234,639	8¢	-$7.4K	-42%	2026-10-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Open	106,047	11¢	-$9.8K	-84%	2026-09-30

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