Wallet positions

0x6139…6b7a

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$7.7K

Win rate

44.2%

Realized edge

+4.3 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +4.3 pp across 43 resolved positions, 95% CI [-4.2, +13.2], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-26 06:40:00 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Held	151,939.33	29.85¢	88.5¢	$134.5K	$241.0K	+196.5%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Held	72,276.9823	35.7¢	65.5¢	$47.3K	$21.5K	+83.4%	2026-11-04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Held	13,925.8655	39.82¢	87.65¢	$12.2K	$19.7K	+120.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	70,884.3776	25.2¢	40¢	$28.4K	$11.5K	+58.7%	—
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Held	1,181.7711	47.84¢	85.5¢	$1.0K	$7.7K	+78.7%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	53,965.0534	6.15¢	13.05¢	$7.0K	$6.1K	+112.0%	2028-11-08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3,540.4363	21.48¢	64.95¢	$2.3K	$5.4K	+202.3%	2027-01-01
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No	Held	28,569.0543	78.95¢	97.05¢	$27.7K	$5.2K	+22.9%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	21,650.6272	44.98¢	64.5¢	$14.0K	$4.2K	+43.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	20,576.3645	46¢	64.5¢	$13.3K	$3.8K	+40.2%	2026-11-04
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? No	Held	12,393.1494	55.99¢	79.5¢	$9.9K	$2.9K	+42.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	3,323.031	33.17¢	76.5¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+130.6%	2026-12-09
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Held	1,008.9798	34.46¢	92¢	$928.26	$2.6K	+167.0%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,555.5215	54.93¢	83.5¢	$1.3K	$2.5K	+52.0%	2027-01-01
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No	Held	10,224.05	77.09¢	97.6¢	$10.0K	$2.1K	+26.6%	2026-11-01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Held	29.0519	82.85¢	94.5¢	$27.45	$2.0K	+14.1%	2027-01-01
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Held	4,951.5189	71.17¢	95.55¢	$4.7K	$1.7K	+34.3%	2027-01-01
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? No	Held	2,021.5548	21.71¢	27¢	$545.82	$1.7K	+24.3%	2027-02-07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	2,610.3559	9.51¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No	Held	4,999.9842	64.83¢	86.5¢	$4.3K	$1.3K	+33.4%	2027-01-01
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	4,533.0151	23.62¢	42.5¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	+79.9%	2026-10-28
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	6,220.9202	17.47¢	17.15¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	-1.9%	2028-11-08
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	2,500.0062	74.02¢	95.95¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	+29.6%	2027-01-01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	1,686.2906	31.85¢	84.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+165.3%	2026-12-31
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	4,561.2321	50.67¢	72.5¢	$3.3K	$1.0K	+43.1%	2026-10-28
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	9,347.4873	24.1¢	34.5¢	$3.2K	$971.38	+43.1%	2026-11-04
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No	Redeemable	1,421.9427	13.41¢	0¢	$0.00	$965.51	-100.0%	2026-10-05
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No	Held	4,580.2533	69.48¢	89¢	$4.1K	$894.07	+28.1%	2027-01-01
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	1,716.75	34.84¢	71.5¢	$1.2K	$798.27	+105.2%	2026-10-28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	15,072.5434	24.8¢	4.5¢	$678.26	$735.76	-81.9%	2026-10-29
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	10,242.1854	19.58¢	25.8¢	$2.6K	$726.48	+31.7%	2026-10-28
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	7,439.584	9.92¢	15.5¢	$1.2K	$719.35	+56.1%	—
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Held	0.1222	58¢	65.5¢	$0.08	$699.05	+12.8%	2028-11-08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes	Held	10,791.5327	10.5¢	14¢	$1.5K	$684.19	+33.3%	2027-01-01
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No	Redeemable	1,499.9869	33¢	0¢	$0.00	$660.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	2,500	87¢	92.5¢	$2.3K	$652.50	+6.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	31,808.0371	4.51¢	0.35¢	$111.33	$628.83	-92.2%	2026-10-29
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? No	Held	2,297.59	11.9¢	34¢	$781.18	$601.00	+185.5%	2027-02-07
Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31? No	Held	1,362.15	56.05¢	98.8¢	$1.3K	$582.28	+76.3%	2026-11-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? No	Held	948.3147	33.07¢	32¢	$303.46	$503.59	-3.3%	2027-01-28
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No	Held	8,882.0032	28.99¢	31.5¢	$2.8K	$499.40	+8.6%	2027-01-17
Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31? No	Held	1,140.0498	42.1¢	82.7¢	$942.82	$462.79	+96.4%	2026-11-01
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Held	38,475.863	11.95¢	12.4¢	$4.8K	$427.77	+3.7%	2027-01-01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Held	3,810.4002	75.7¢	79.9¢	$3.0K	$393.11	+5.5%	2028-11-08
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? No	Held	476.47	46.94¢	90¢	$428.82	$361.96	+91.7%	2026-12-01
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	2,498.59	5.18¢	17.15¢	$428.51	$352.57	+230.6%	2027-02-07
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No	Held	11,850.9064	40.09¢	43¢	$5.1K	$345.76	+7.2%	2026-11-04
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,249.9912	25.88¢	0¢	$0.00	$343.75	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? Yes	Held	457	22.88¢	96.45¢	$440.78	$339.56	+321.5%	2026-11-04
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	1,311.09	35.99¢	60.35¢	$791.24	$319.36	+67.7%	2027-01-01
Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election? No	Held	553.76	58.77¢	75.5¢	$418.09	$273.30	+28.5%	2027-02-07
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No	Held	411.3281	57.94¢	87.5¢	$359.91	$262.19	+51.0%	2027-01-01
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? No	Held	919.1174	62.02¢	90.45¢	$831.34	$261.26	+45.8%	2026-11-01
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance Mexico	Redeemable	17,500.02	3.71¢	0¢	$0.00	$256.30	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Held	2,500	50¢	60.2¢	$1.5K	$255.00	+20.4%	2028-11-08
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	1,299.79	14.82¢	31.75¢	$412.68	$220.00	+114.2%	2027-01-01
Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2? No	Held	864	73.96¢	97.65¢	$843.70	$204.61	+32.0%	2026-11-03
Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election? No	Held	191.07	22.16¢	44¢	$84.07	$199.88	+98.5%	2027-02-07
Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? No	Held	2,206.53	29.58¢	36¢	$794.35	$191.55	+21.7%	2027-02-07
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? No	Held	1,861.46	89.38¢	99.25¢	$1.8K	$183.69	+11.0%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	171.48	10¢	11.85¢	$20.32	$183.17	+18.5%	2026-11-04
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes	Held	819.2246	17.24¢	20.5¢	$167.94	$179.34	+18.9%	2027-01-01
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes	Held	1,681.2035	50.33¢	50¢	$840.60	$140.92	-0.7%	2026-11-17
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	932.6696	8.1¢	0.05¢	$0.47	$136.04	-99.4%	—
Will Mohammed Ashiru Isa win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	456.11	11.56¢	18¢	$82.10	$133.59	+55.7%	2027-02-07
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	1,000.0086	8.2¢	0.45¢	$4.50	$131.40	-94.5%	—
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Yes	Redeemable	2,034.8385	24.01¢	0¢	$0.00	$127.26	-100.0%	2026-04-30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,505.5044	10.82¢	2.55¢	$63.89	$126.84	-76.4%	2026-11-01
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	195,828.9764	5.77¢	3¢	$5.9K	$115.12	-48.1%	2028-11-08
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,255.37	19.17¢	25¢	$313.84	$114.06	+30.4%	2027-02-07
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? Yes	Held	478.7514	18¢	6.95¢	$33.27	$113.89	-61.4%	2026-11-01
Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? No	Held	2,235.08	16.6¢	21¢	$469.37	$109.73	+26.5%	2027-02-07
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes	Held	1,738.9082	17.67¢	22.5¢	$391.25	$109.57	+27.3%	2027-01-02
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? Yes	Held	3,184.13	7¢	7.5¢	$238.81	$105.92	+7.1%	2026-12-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	11.35¢	$113.50	$105.69	+1352.9%	2028-11-08
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31? No	Held	955	88.25¢	99.2¢	$947.36	$104.56	+12.4%	2026-11-01
Will Democrats win exactly 12 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	262	13.57¢	27.5¢	$72.05	$102.74	+102.6%	2026-11-04
Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31? No	Held	280.2528	63.17¢	98.8¢	$276.89	$99.83	+56.4%	2026-11-01
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	91.4834	10¢	11¢	$10.06	$98.91	+10.0%	2026-11-04
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Held	983.6379	26.32¢	36¢	$354.11	$95.20	+36.8%	2026-10-26
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No	Held	500	75¢	94¢	$470.00	$95.00	+25.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	5,386.8886	39.83¢	41.5¢	$2.2K	$89.79	+4.2%	2026-11-04
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	9.35¢	$93.50	$85.69	+1096.9%	2028-11-08
Will Nwifuru Francis Ogbonna win the 2027 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election? No	Held	426.2506	13.66¢	19¢	$80.99	$84.14	+39.1%	2027-02-07
Will Mustapha Gubio win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election? No	Held	761.3351	13.76¢	17¢	$129.43	$82.96	+23.5%	2027-02-07
Will Democrats win exactly 11 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	244	13.57¢	17.5¢	$42.70	$82.39	+28.9%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	514.6	17.48¢	29.65¢	$152.58	$81.86	+69.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	875.4606	11.43¢	20.45¢	$179.03	$78.93	+78.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	610.0033	8.39¢	11.5¢	$70.15	$77.28	+37.0%	—
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	808.46	25.23¢	34.5¢	$278.92	$74.89	+36.7%	2026-10-26
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes	Held	4,576.8845	5.61¢	5.45¢	$249.44	$72.32	-3.0%	2027-01-01
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	457.35	30.22¢	44.5¢	$203.52	$70.87	+47.2%	2026-11-04
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Held	6,238.3506	26.26¢	24¢	$1.5K	$67.51	-8.6%	2027-01-17
Will Democrats win exactly 13 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	448.62	13.57¢	28.5¢	$127.86	$66.95	+109.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	463.4673	10¢	14.15¢	$65.58	$65.94	+41.5%	2026-11-04
Will Mohammed Umaru Bago win the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election? No	Held	722.22	21.27¢	27.5¢	$198.61	$65.10	+29.3%	2027-02-07
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	151.4805	10¢	2.65¢	$4.01	$56.87	-73.5%	2026-11-04
Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31? No	Held	250	77¢	99.55¢	$248.88	$56.38	+29.3%	2026-11-01
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No	Held	220.63	86.73¢	93¢	$205.19	$49.79	+7.2%	2027-01-01
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes	Held	299.9798	43.33¢	59.5¢	$178.49	$48.50	+37.3%	2027-01-05
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election? No	Held	199.99	16.2¢	22.5¢	$45.00	$47.50	+38.8%	2027-02-07
House control favorite on November 2? Democratic Party	Held	1,207.8	95¢	98.9¢	$1.2K	$47.10	+4.1%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 45%-50%? Yes	Held	121.1	15.14¢	28.5¢	$34.51	$45.81	+88.2%	2026-11-04
Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election? No	Held	750.13	16.35¢	19.5¢	$146.28	$42.76	+19.2%	2027-02-07
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 35%-40%? Yes	Held	91.1	7.5¢	31¢	$28.24	$42.64	+313.2%	2026-11-04
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes	Held	255.09	25.62¢	3.2¢	$8.16	$42.56	-87.5%	2026-11-17
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,023.858	16.98¢	20.5¢	$209.89	$42.06	+20.7%	2027-02-07
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? Yes	Held	2,169.5245	6.9¢	8.5¢	$184.41	$41.72	+23.1%	2027-01-17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%? Yes	Held	428.8636	17.54¢	26.5¢	$113.65	$38.41	+51.1%	2026-11-04
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,484.7585	39.62¢	42¢	$623.60	$36.90	+6.0%	2027-02-07
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No	Held	80	54¢	96.85¢	$77.48	$34.28	+79.4%	2027-01-01
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	634	87.52¢	93.5¢	$592.79	$32.98	+6.8%	2026-11-04
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,344.12	23.23¢	23.5¢	$315.87	$30.24	+1.1%	2027-02-07
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	3.8¢	$38.00	$30.19	+386.4%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	56.26	87.07¢	96.55¢	$54.32	$29.38	+10.9%	2026-11-04
Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	233.58	10.71¢	13¢	$30.37	$29.03	+21.3%	2027-02-07
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Yes	Redeemable	1,650.5424	8.45¢	0¢	$0.00	$28.01	-100.0%	2025-02-07
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? Yes	Held	3,400.5833	7.72¢	7.45¢	$253.34	$27.91	-3.5%	2027-01-01
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? No	Held	250	86¢	96.7¢	$241.75	$26.75	+12.4%	2027-01-01
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? Yes	Held	290.79	0.41¢	9.4¢	$27.33	$26.13	+2167.3%	2027-01-17
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? Yes	Held	486.4947	9.64¢	14.4¢	$70.06	$25.65	+49.3%	2027-01-15
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	206.49	10¢	3.4¢	$7.02	$25.45	-66.0%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win 14 or more House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	444	13.57¢	19¢	$84.36	$24.10	+40.0%	2026-11-04
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	716.8925	4.83¢	7.55¢	$54.13	$23.56	+56.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Labour Party (LP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Held	60	65.3¢	92.7¢	$55.62	$22.87	+41.9%	2027-01-17
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? Yes	Held	265.93	13¢	21.5¢	$57.17	$22.60	+65.4%	2027-01-05
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	2.95¢	$29.50	$21.69	+277.6%	2028-11-08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 40%-45%? Yes	Held	141.1	7.5¢	22.75¢	$32.10	$21.51	+203.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? Yes	Held	100	61¢	82¢	$82.00	$21.00	+34.4%	2026-11-04
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Held	1,034.5337	23.66¢	23.5¢	$243.12	$20.43	-0.7%	2027-01-17
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	2.75¢	$27.50	$19.69	+252.0%	2028-11-08
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? No	Held	338.23	19.52¢	18¢	$60.88	$19.45	-7.8%	2027-02-07
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	184.39	21.99¢	32.5¢	$59.93	$19.36	+47.7%	2026-11-04
Will Hembe Herman Iorwase C. win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	503.46	0.94¢	4.65¢	$23.41	$18.68	+394.4%	2027-02-07
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes	Held	450.0053	32.22¢	4.5¢	$20.25	$18.47	-86.0%	2026-10-31
Will Coffie Emeni Samuel win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	2,124.38	3.05¢	3.9¢	$82.85	$17.89	+27.5%	2027-02-07
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? Yes	Held	496.37	9.63¢	13¢	$64.53	$16.69	+34.9%	2027-01-15
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	2.45¢	$24.50	$16.69	+213.6%	2028-11-08
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31? No	Held	623.12	96.6¢	99¢	$616.89	$14.95	+2.5%	2026-11-01
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	2.05¢	$20.50	$12.69	+162.4%	2028-11-08
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes	Held	423.3763	23.39¢	24.5¢	$103.73	$11.85	+4.7%	2027-01-01
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	1.9¢	$19.00	$11.19	+143.2%	2028-11-08
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? Yes	Held	816.4273	6.49¢	6.85¢	$55.93	$10.62	+5.4%	2027-02-01
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	1.65¢	$16.50	$8.69	+111.2%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%? Yes	Held	130.93	13.5¢	19.85¢	$25.99	$8.31	+47.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 15%-25%? Yes	Held	81	5.49¢	4.7¢	$3.81	$7.81	-14.5%	2026-11-04
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	617.3	27¢	27.5¢	$169.76	$7.59	+1.9%	2026-11-04
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No	Redeemable	1,699.01	4.28¢	0¢	$0.00	$7.21	-100.0%	2026-09-04
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	118.5	9.27¢	10.15¢	$12.03	$6.15	+9.4%	2027-02-07
Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? No	Held	122.79	87¢	91.65¢	$112.54	$5.71	+5.3%	2027-01-17
Will Shehu Bawa win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	184.06	3¢	5.6¢	$10.31	$4.79	+86.7%	2027-02-07
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	1.25¢	$12.50	$4.69	+60.0%	2028-11-08
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms? No	Held	74.8394	86.3¢	92.4¢	$69.15	$4.57	+7.1%	2026-11-04
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	1.15¢	$11.50	$3.69	+47.2%	2028-11-08
Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Held	2,067.1922	0.29¢	0.45¢	$9.30	$3.18	+52.0%	2027-01-17
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? No	Held	100	87.7¢	90.65¢	$90.65	$2.95	+3.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 0%-3%? No	Held	25	84¢	95.65¢	$23.91	$2.91	+13.9%	2026-11-04
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	1.05¢	$10.50	$2.69	+34.4%	2028-11-08
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	100	11¢	13.5¢	$13.50	$2.50	+22.7%	2026-12-31
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	203.22	20.03¢	1.1¢	$2.24	$2.38	-94.5%	2026-11-04
Will Danjuma Laah win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	68.16	0.19¢	3.35¢	$2.28	$2.15	+1575.6%	2027-02-07
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No	Held	105	10.88¢	12.85¢	$13.49	$2.07	+18.1%	2027-06-07
Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? No	Held	140.01	97.2¢	98.55¢	$137.98	$1.89	+1.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	18.1	13¢	23.05¢	$4.17	$1.82	+77.3%	2026-11-04
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.95¢	$9.50	$1.69	+21.6%	2028-11-08
Will Babagana Buhari win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	19.25	1.99¢	9.55¢	$1.84	$1.45	+377.5%	2027-02-07
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Held	25.01	0.3¢	5.2¢	$1.30	$1.23	+1633.2%	2027-06-07
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.9¢	$9.00	$1.19	+15.2%	2028-11-08
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.9¢	$9.00	$1.19	+15.2%	2028-11-08
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	13.02	75¢	83.5¢	$10.87	$1.09	+11.3%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 55% or more? Yes	Held	141.1	7.5¢	8.25¢	$11.64	$1.05	+9.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%? Yes	Held	10	10¢	18.5¢	$1.85	$0.85	+85.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 50%-55%? Yes	Held	141.1	7.5¢	8.05¢	$11.36	$0.77	+7.3%	2026-11-04
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Held	130.81	4.01¢	4.6¢	$6.02	$0.76	+14.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	20	1.5¢	5.15¢	$1.03	$0.73	+243.3%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	164.65	99.1¢	99.5¢	$163.83	$0.66	+0.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 20%-25%? No	Held	10	77¢	83.5¢	$8.35	$0.65	+8.4%	2026-11-04
Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? No	Held	5	86.7¢	99.65¢	$4.98	$0.65	+14.9%	2026-11-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 0%-3%? No	Held	25	86¢	88¢	$22.00	$0.50	+2.3%	2026-11-04
Will Ogboru Great Ovedje win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	10	0.2¢	4.75¢	$0.47	$0.46	+2275.0%	2027-02-07
Will Gabriel Pidomson win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	18.77	1.2¢	3.45¢	$0.65	$0.42	+187.4%	2027-02-07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	20	2¢	4.05¢	$0.81	$0.41	+102.5%	2026-11-04
Will the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? No	Held	117.81	98.07¢	98.65¢	$116.22	$0.41	+0.6%	2027-01-17
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%? Yes	Held	10	2¢	5.25¢	$0.53	$0.33	+162.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? Yes	Held	21	3.12¢	4.5¢	$0.94	$0.29	+44.0%	2027-01-17
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	10	2¢	4.5¢	$0.45	$0.25	+125.0%	2026-11-04
Will John Sunday Sura win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	17.86	1¢	1.95¢	$0.35	$0.17	+95.0%	2027-02-07
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election? Yes	Held	5	1¢	2.7¢	$0.14	$0.09	+170.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 40%-45%? No	Held	9	95.4¢	95.85¢	$8.63	$0.04	+0.5%	2026-11-04
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	150	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-12
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	74,999.9468	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Jatiya Party finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	963.72	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-12
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	74,999.9468	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win fewer than 60 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? Yes	Redeemable	357.67	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-08
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	74,999.9468	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	999.9918	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-26
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	24,999.9968	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	821.7675	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-28
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	74,999.9468	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	24,999.9968	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Zack Polanski – Green Party win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	999.9918	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-26
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	1,710.1433	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	74,999.9468	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win between 80 and 89 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? Yes	Redeemable	357.67	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-02-08
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes	Redeemable	835.9998	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? Yes	Redeemable	113.453	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-08-23
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Held	3.18	4¢	3.9¢	$0.12	>-$0.01	-2.5%	2027-01-01
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? Yes	Held	536.6225	9.2¢	8.45¢	$45.34	-$0.16	-8.2%	2026-11-04
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.75¢	$7.50	-$0.31	-4.0%	2028-11-08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 3%-6%? No	Held	20	84¢	81¢	$16.20	-$0.60	-3.6%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	30	15¢	12.5¢	$3.75	-$0.75	-16.7%	2026-11-04
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	10	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.20	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No	Held	99.9847	58¢	56.5¢	$56.49	-$1.50	-2.6%	2027-01-01
Will Jeremiah Akpan win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	2,050.66	3.12¢	3.05¢	$62.55	-$1.54	-2.4%	2027-02-07
Will Rodina win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	500	0.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.74	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31? Yes	Held	8.01	28¢	5.1¢	$0.41	-$1.83	-81.8%	2026-11-01
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.55¢	$5.50	-$2.31	-29.6%	2028-11-08
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.55¢	$5.50	-$2.31	-29.6%	2028-11-08
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.55¢	$5.50	-$2.31	-29.6%	2028-11-07
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Held	250	5.9¢	4.9¢	$12.25	-$2.50	-16.9%	2027-06-07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	221.54	8.33¢	1.85¢	$4.10	-$2.50	-77.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 25%-30%? Yes	Held	141.1	7.5¢	5.3¢	$7.48	-$3.11	-29.4%	2026-11-04
Will Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election? No	Held	41.65	90.4¢	90.85¢	$37.84	-$3.19	+0.5%	2027-02-07
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? Yes	Redeemable	249.9968	1.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.25	-100.0%	2026-09-06
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.45¢	$4.50	-$3.31	-42.4%	2028-11-08
Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	2,035.48	12.27¢	12¢	$244.26	-$3.42	-2.2%	2027-02-07
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election? Yes	Held	146	6.22¢	3.65¢	$5.33	-$3.77	-41.4%	2026-11-04
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? No	Redeemable	78.83	4.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.97	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? Yes	Held	100	19¢	14.75¢	$14.75	-$4.25	-22.4%	2026-11-04
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.35¢	$3.50	-$4.31	-55.2%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 15%-20%? No	Held	99.9936	77.49¢	73¢	$73.00	-$4.50	-5.8%	2026-11-04
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	3,313.4981	26.83¢	26¢	$861.51	-$4.97	-3.1%	2026-10-28
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	4,238.2541	24.52¢	23.5¢	$995.99	-$5.22	-4.2%	2027-01-01
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.25¢	$2.50	-$5.31	-68.0%	2028-11-08
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.15¢	$1.50	-$6.31	-80.8%	2028-11-08
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.15¢	$1.50	-$6.31	-80.8%	2028-11-08
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.15¢	$1.50	-$6.31	-80.8%	2028-11-08
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.15¢	$1.50	-$6.31	-80.8%	2028-11-08
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.15¢	$1.50	-$6.31	-80.8%	2028-11-08
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Held	237.56	24.65¢	22¢	$52.26	-$6.31	-10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first? Yes	Redeemable	513.12	1.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.35	-100.0%	2025-02-09
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes	Held	100	31¢	24.5¢	$24.50	-$6.50	-21.0%	2027-01-01
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	999.9924	1¢	0.35¢	$3.50	-$6.50	-65.0%	2026-10-28
Will James Ene Nwannaji win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	485.49	14.54¢	13¢	$63.11	-$6.77	-10.6%	2027-02-07
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	1,000	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.50	-$7.31	-93.6%	2028-11-08
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	109.9	22¢	15¢	$16.48	-$7.69	-31.8%	2027-01-01
Will Democrats win fewer than 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	344	13.57¢	0.65¢	$2.24	-$8.05	-95.2%	2026-11-04
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian Senate election? No	Held	1,047.38	19.9¢	19¢	$199.00	-$8.69	-4.5%	2027-01-17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 0%-15%? Yes	Held	206.7	5.15¢	0.15¢	$0.31	-$10.34	-97.1%	2026-11-04
Israel military response against Iran in October? No	Redeemable	3,257.98	59.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.10	-100.0%	2024-10-31
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes	Held	100	27¢	15.5¢	$15.50	-$11.50	-42.6%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 9%-12%? Yes	Held	250	8.33¢	3.25¢	$8.13	-$12.71	-61.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	250	8.33¢	3.1¢	$7.75	-$13.08	-62.8%	2026-11-04
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	567.4045	2.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.16	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31? Yes	Held	2,500	1¢	0.45¢	$11.25	-$13.75	-55.0%	2026-11-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes	Held	500	23¢	20¢	$100.00	-$15.00	-13.0%	2026-12-01
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	288.32	10¢	5.55¢	$16.00	-$15.21	-44.5%	2026-11-04
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes	Held	999.9868	6.99¢	5.4¢	$54.00	-$16.00	-22.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 6%-9%? Yes	Held	252.3402	8.28¢	1.75¢	$4.42	-$16.49	-78.9%	2026-11-04
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days? Yes	Redeemable	143.8714	12.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.01	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	249.9981	7.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.75	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? Yes	Redeemable	2,030	0.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.27	-100.0%	2026-02-20
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? Yes	Redeemable	500	4.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.00	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	1,314.3557	14.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.33	-100.0%	2027-06-30
Brian Thompson Perp arrested on Sunday? Yes	Redeemable	999.9912	2.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.00	-100.0%	2024-12-08
No Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Sunday? No	Redeemable	999.9718	2.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.00	-100.0%	2024-12-08
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	2,660.01	7¢	6¢	$159.60	-$26.80	-14.4%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes	Redeemable	224.58	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.95	-100.0%	2026-11-05
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	817,184.4868	0.86¢	0.85¢	$6.9K	-$27.90	-2.3%	2028-11-08
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,028.0551	19.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$28.66	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	878.84	3.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.40	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9.64¢	3.6¢	$18.00	-$30.24	-62.7%	2027-01-15
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	976.2218	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.92	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9.64¢	3.45¢	$17.25	-$30.99	-64.2%	2027-01-15
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	2,709.0288	10.91¢	9.5¢	$257.36	-$31.20	-13.0%	2026-12-01
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	999.989	3.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat? Yes	Held	499.99	14¢	7.5¢	$37.50	-$32.50	-46.4%	2026-11-04
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69? Yes	Redeemable	107	32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.24	-100.0%	2024-12-23
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28? No	Redeemable	55.5555	64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$35.56	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%? No	Held	50	90¢	86.65¢	$43.33	-$36.20	-3.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? Yes	Held	4,099.2748	9.98¢	8¢	$327.94	-$36.57	-19.9%	2026-11-01
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9.64¢	2.25¢	$11.25	-$36.99	-76.7%	2027-01-15
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? No	Held	500	15¢	7.5¢	$37.50	-$37.50	-50.0%	2026-11-04
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Held	100	62.4¢	24.6¢	$24.60	-$37.80	-60.6%	2027-01-01
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes	Held	2,000	3.49¢	1.55¢	$31.00	-$39.00	-55.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	17.0144	83.6¢	85.85¢	$14.61	-$39.81	+2.7%	2026-11-04
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down	Redeemable	999.8829	4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.00	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	444	13.57¢	4.35¢	$19.31	-$40.94	-67.9%	2026-11-04
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31? Yes	Held	1,012.8887	13.81¢	9.5¢	$96.22	-$42.54	-31.2%	2027-01-01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes	Held	560.261	11.14¢	2.65¢	$14.85	-$43.89	-76.2%	2026-10-20
Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9.64¢	0.85¢	$4.25	-$43.99	-91.2%	2027-01-15
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Yes	Redeemable	360.4651	12.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.46	-100.0%	2026-05-03
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	376.5563	12.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.45	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026? Yes	Held	500	9.64¢	0.35¢	$1.75	-$46.49	-96.4%	2027-01-15
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Yes	Redeemable	99.9984	47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.00	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up	Redeemable	97.1832	48.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.28	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes	Held	3,302.0518	55.48¢	54¢	$1.8K	-$48.98	-2.7%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	494	12.9¢	2.55¢	$12.60	-$51.16	-80.2%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	36.2286	79¢	89¢	$32.24	-$51.57	+12.7%	2026-11-04
Will Trump say "Doge" during the X space? Yes	Redeemable	750	7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$52.50	-100.0%	2024-09-16
Will Emmanuel Friday Ben win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	2,050.66	3.12¢	0.55¢	$11.28	-$52.80	-82.4%	2027-02-07
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	6,962.5819	86.27¢	85.5¢	$6.0K	-$53.62	-0.9%	2026-11-04
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? Yes	Held	652.46	13¢	3.35¢	$21.86	-$54.58	-74.2%	2026-11-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? No	Held	1,000	12¢	6.5¢	$65.00	-$55.00	-45.8%	2026-10-29
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	3,056.2485	20.64¢	18.5¢	$565.41	-$56.95	-10.4%	2026-11-04
Will Democrats win exactly 12 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	218	76¢	72.5¢	$158.05	-$56.95	-4.6%	2026-11-04
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	24,141.9819	1.63¢	1.4¢	$337.99	-$57.37	-14.5%	2028-11-08
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,826.567	16.42¢	13¢	$237.45	-$57.46	-20.9%	2027-02-07
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	718.32	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$57.47	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,750.1218	4.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$58.40	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Held	230.7	49.58¢	22¢	$50.75	-$63.64	-55.6%	2027-01-01
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections? No	Held	31.36	98.2¢	98.9¢	$31.02	-$65.57	+0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"? No	Redeemable	860.15	7.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$66.27	-100.0%	2025-02-09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? Yes	Redeemable	1,250	5.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$69.25	-100.0%	2026-08-23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? No	Held	250	29¢	0.55¢	$1.38	-$70.83	-98.1%	2026-10-25
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? Yes	Held	3,092.25	35.71¢	27¢	$834.91	-$72.34	-24.4%	2026-11-01
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes	Redeemable	499.9788	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$75.00	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	821.48	10¢	0.6¢	$4.93	-$77.22	-94.0%	2026-11-04
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? No	Held	2,141.3392	86.71¢	88¢	$1.9K	-$78.58	+1.5%	2026-11-01
Will the US strike Iraq next? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	7.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.64	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike another country first? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	7.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.64	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	7.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.64	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike Cuba next? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	7.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.64	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No	Held	347.65	27.43¢	4.2¢	$14.60	-$80.78	-84.7%	2027-01-01
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down	Redeemable	1,190.1399	6.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$82.84	-100.0%	2026-02-16
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 Yes	Held	1,199.99	17.41¢	7.5¢	$90.00	-$85.99	-56.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" during the State of the Union address? No	Redeemable	613.6	22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.78	-100.0%	2026-02-24
Will egg prices be between $4.25-4.50 for January? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$90.00	-100.0%	2025-02-12
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Yes	Redeemable	250	36.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$90.25	-100.0%	2026-05-19
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 9%-12%? No	Held	80.1168	96.2¢	97.2¢	$77.87	-$90.42	+1.0%	2026-11-04
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No	Redeemable	456.88	20.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$92.76	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? No	Redeemable	2,165.4145	5.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$93.48	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? Yes	Redeemable	855.21	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$94.07	-100.0%	2024-11-04
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	21,892.789	2.05¢	1.55¢	$339.34	-$94.83	-24.7%	2028-11-08
Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat? Yes	Held	1,000	63¢	53.5¢	$535.00	-$95.00	-15.1%	2026-11-04
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes	Held	3,206.9614	7¢	4¢	$128.28	-$96.21	-42.9%	2027-01-01
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down	Redeemable	1,000	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.00	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	1,500	8.2¢	1.35¢	$20.25	-$102.83	-83.5%	—
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	499.9894	21.99¢	1.3¢	$6.50	-$103.50	-94.1%	2027-01-01
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down	Redeemable	999.8855	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$109.99	-100.0%	2026-02-15
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Yes	Redeemable	450.84	24.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$110.40	-100.0%	2024-12-31
Will Kamala Harris say "liar" during Oprah livestream? Yes	Redeemable	874.63	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$118.75	-100.0%	2024-09-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down	Redeemable	999.9229	11.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$119.84	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia speech on Oct 15? No	Redeemable	999.9659	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$120.00	-100.0%	2024-10-15
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No	Held	5,572.5446	20.72¢	18.5¢	$1.0K	-$123.66	-10.7%	2026-11-04
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"? Yes	Redeemable	368	33.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$123.74	-100.0%	2025-02-09
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"? Yes	Redeemable	327	37.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$123.76	-100.0%	2025-02-09
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No	Held	1,845.1202	53.44¢	45.5¢	$839.53	-$131.02	-14.9%	2026-11-08
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? No	Redeemable	250	54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$135.00	-100.0%	2025-01-20
Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	602	23.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$136.48	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No	Held	9,879.41	86.88¢	85.5¢	$8.4K	-$136.73	-1.6%	2026-11-04
Will another outcome occur in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	1,352.987	5.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$138.07	-100.0%	2026-02-12
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.00	-100.0%	—
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes	Redeemable	499.9908	28.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$142.50	-100.0%	2026-06-12
Will Chinda Kingsley Ogundu win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election? No	Held	1,891.89	18.09¢	10.5¢	$198.65	-$143.67	-42.0%	2027-02-07
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,525.9898	4.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.57	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	500	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$145.00	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"? Yes	Redeemable	250	60¢	0¢	$0.00	-$150.00	-100.0%	2025-02-09
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	532.925	31.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$167.94	-100.0%	2026-04-04
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	20.07¢	3¢	$30.00	-$170.74	-85.1%	2027-01-15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Held	182.2693	20¢	0.85¢	$1.55	-$171.90	-95.8%	2027-01-28
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No	Redeemable	793.66	22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$174.61	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Held	2,836.3708	10.37¢	4.05¢	$114.87	-$175.39	-61.0%	2027-01-01
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? No	Redeemable	269.5798	66.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$182.93	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend? Yes	Redeemable	689.56	26.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$183.14	-100.0%	2024-10-28
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No	Redeemable	627.58	29.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$185.83	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Held	3,351.9274	8.76¢	3¢	$100.56	-$187.22	-65.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Held	12,682.223	1.56¢	1.4¢	$177.55	-$190.22	-10.7%	2027-01-28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes	Redeemable	9,153.8	2.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$191.96	-100.0%	2026-05-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up	Redeemable	1,465.4761	14.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$211.00	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$220.00	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No	Redeemable	332.23	68.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$228.33	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	10,724.9443	45.72¢	39.8¢	$4.3K	-$228.97	-13.0%	2028-11-08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$230.00	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? Yes	Held	1,253.199	38.36¢	19.5¢	$244.37	-$236.45	-49.2%	2026-11-03
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up	Redeemable	4,999.472	5.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$259.91	-100.0%	2026-02-16
Nothing Ever Happens: February Nothing	Redeemable	500	54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$270.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No	Held	4,499.9895	15.9¢	10.5¢	$472.50	-$272.48	-34.0%	2026-10-31
Will the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win 140 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? No	Redeemable	492.1997	56.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$278.25	-100.0%	2026-02-08
Will Henri Rousseau's "Femme en rouge dans la fôret" sell for $16m or greater? Yes	Redeemable	580.01	49.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$289.20	-100.0%	2024-11-19
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,205.4	24.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$290.48	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	1,753.1731	16.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$292.20	-100.0%	2027-06-30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	1,332.9552	95.77¢	99.35¢	$1.3K	-$294.57	+3.7%	2026-12-09
Faithless elector in US election? Yes	Redeemable	873.4614	33.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$296.91	-100.0%	2024-11-05
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes	Held	503.8211	62.74¢	2.15¢	$10.83	-$305.28	-96.6%	2027-01-01
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes	Held	500	66¢	2.45¢	$12.25	-$317.75	-96.3%	2026-12-31
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No	Redeemable	9,380.41	3.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$323.26	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? No	Redeemable	1,499.9799	21.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$324.99	-100.0%	2026-08-03
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? No	Redeemable	499.9957	65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$325.00	-100.0%	2026-09-06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes	Held	13,241.7943	30.95¢	28.5¢	$3.8K	-$325.47	-7.9%	2027-01-28
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes	Redeemable	765.8699	50.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$330.18	-100.0%	2026-02-22
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? No	Redeemable	2,422.7474	15.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$367.32	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	4,667.0366	10.57¢	2.65¢	$123.68	-$369.71	-74.9%	2026-12-09
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? Yes	Held	5,384.5234	10.15¢	3.35¢	$180.38	-$379.40	-67.0%	2027-02-01
Will Trump say "Trans" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? No	Redeemable	699.9979	56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$392.00	-100.0%	2024-10-20
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	2,425.15	16.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$401.24	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Held	3,793.1695	41.93¢	1.6¢	$60.69	-$408.41	-96.2%	2027-01-01
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Held	1,005.9923	51.74¢	11¢	$110.66	-$409.90	-78.7%	2027-03-02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? No	Redeemable	2,013.1184	20.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$413.14	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	53,973.5014	0.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$434.54	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9,923.4661	5.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$470.68	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes	Held	3,793.705	57.35¢	43.5¢	$1.7K	-$474.14	-24.2%	2026-11-08
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Yes	Redeemable	5,684.91	8.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$480.63	-100.0%	2025-02-07
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Yes	Redeemable	5,684.91	8.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$480.63	-100.0%	2025-02-07
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	7,216.2094	10.6¢	3.4¢	$245.35	-$519.75	-67.9%	2027-01-01
Will Trump tweet on inauguration day? No	Redeemable	4,814.0255	11.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$548.52	-100.0%	2025-01-20
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	3,796.6644	19.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$549.04	-100.0%	2026-02-26
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up	Redeemable	999.9397	55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$549.97	-100.0%	2026-02-15
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,418.0336	16.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$552.58	-100.0%	2026-03-04
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No	Redeemable	1,057.7832	52.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$560.62	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	2,500	23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$575.00	-100.0%	2025-05-07
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? No	Redeemable	1,650.2988	62.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$635.86	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union address? No	Redeemable	3,048.7269	21.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$665.55	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? No	Redeemable	811.7044	82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$665.60	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October? Yes	Held	7,736.708	8.81¢	0.35¢	$27.08	-$681.45	-96.0%	2027-02-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes	Held	1,249.9751	58.59¢	4.05¢	$50.62	-$681.86	-93.1%	2026-11-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,099.9736	62.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$686.98	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	8,972.16	6.56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$738.63	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Trump say "McDonald's" at debate? Yes	Redeemable	4,948.0446	15.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$750.64	-100.0%	2024-09-10
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August? Yes	Redeemable	1,403.0897	13.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$777.80	-100.0%	2027-02-01
Trump positive favorability on Day 100? Yes	Redeemable	1,876.7539	43.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$809.19	-100.0%	2025-04-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down	Redeemable	10,999.755	7.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$830.00	-100.0%	2026-02-15
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? No	Redeemable	5,999.9001	2.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$850.62	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes	Held	22,793.549	9.77¢	6¢	$1.4K	-$859.48	-38.6%	2027-01-02
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	12,014.9073	8.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$897.06	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference? No	Redeemable	1,250	75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$937.50	-100.0%	2025-01-29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? No	Redeemable	7,674.4288	13.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$967.04	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Trump visit China by June 30? No	Redeemable	33,414.4768	2.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$967.42	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	5,312.504	18.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$967.42	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes	Held	23,102.9666	8.05¢	3.65¢	$843.26	-$1.0K	-54.7%	2027-01-01
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	2,553.6629	36.75¢	12.5¢	$319.21	-$1.1K	-66.0%	2026-10-28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	35,208.5715	3.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-05-11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,999.9629	44.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-05-30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	12,262.58	14.63¢	5.5¢	$674.44	-$1.3K	-62.4%	2026-11-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,953.312	27.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-08-08
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	37,161.9628	3.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 75-99 tries? Yes	Redeemable	3,274.44	46.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2024-12-27
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	7,000.0123	25.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-04-01
Trump positive favorability on March 1? Yes	Redeemable	3,405.55	46.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2025-03-01
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? No	Held	15,574.4122	9.03¢	1.5¢	$233.62	-$1.7K	-83.4%	2026-10-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	14,999.9337	12.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? Yes	Held	49,294.1936	6.47¢	1.55¢	$764.06	-$2.4K	-76.1%	2026-11-01
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Redeemable	17,551.2532	14.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.6K	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Trump positive favorability on April 1? Yes	Redeemable	5,938.3389	43.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.6K	-100.0%	2025-04-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Held	60,004.5415	10.64¢	6.5¢	$3.9K	-$2.6K	-38.9%	2026-12-01
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? Yes	Redeemable	6,460.99	43.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-100.0%	2025-10-20
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	26,574.5068	10.09¢	1.1¢	$292.32	-$3.0K	-89.1%	2026-11-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Held	45,607.8023	20.76¢	13.5¢	$6.2K	-$3.3K	-35.0%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	23,833.8628	8.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.6K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Yoon arrested by Friday? Yes	Redeemable	8,160.4493	48.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2025-01-03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes	Held	216,081.4915	18.43¢	16¢	$34.6K	-$4.8K	-13.2%	2027-01-01
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	289,827.7875	1.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.0K	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Redeemable	5,431.945	22.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.4K	-100.0%	2026-10-26
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? No	Redeemable	18,654.6036	29.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.5K	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? No	Redeemable	2,500.008	15.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.2K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30? No	Redeemable	16,058.0108	38.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.2K	-100.0%	2024-09-30
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? No	Redeemable	2,500.0082	32.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.4K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	29,249.4041	13.66¢	3.2¢	$935.98	-$6.7K	-76.6%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	22,411.6875	30.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.7K	-100.0%	2026-04-24
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	67,394.5278	4.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	57,442.6182	2.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.1K	-100.0%	2026-04-23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	50,231.4302	21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.5K	-100.0%	2026-04-23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	106,047.0887	10.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.7K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes	Held	170,354.4028	7.81¢	1.35¢	$2.3K	-$13.0K	-82.7%	2026-11-01
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Redeemable	77,499.7315	20.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No	Redeemable	82,964.1851	28.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.0K	-100.0%	2026-04-30

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