Wallet positions

0x5a21…9318

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

316

Realized PnL

$955.74

Win rate

49.7%

Realized edge

+4.2 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +4.2 pp across 316 resolved positions, 95% CI [+2.2, +6.7], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:23:41 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No	Held	268,000	50¢	88.5¢	$237.2K	$103.2K	+77.0%	2028-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Held	250,000	50¢	82.05¢	$205.1K	$80.1K	+64.1%	2028-11-08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	3,671.4227	84.47¢	83.95¢	$3.1K	$19.3K	-0.6%	2026-10-05
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	845.2405	2.77¢	79.5¢	$671.97	$13.9K	+2762.1%	2026-09-14
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	313.7735	2.22¢	96.25¢	$302.01	$8.1K	+4231.7%	2026-11-04
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	840.57	2.77¢	16.95¢	$142.48	$6.6K	+510.2%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Held	1,348.3927	58.19¢	72.5¢	$977.58	$6.1K	+24.6%	2026-10-31
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes	Held	1,603.5151	3.12¢	96.65¢	$1.5K	$4.6K	+2992.9%	2026-12-06
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Held	70	83.44¢	84.5¢	$59.15	$4.1K	+1.3%	2026-10-05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Held	3,875.9842	55.88¢	84.5¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	+51.2%	2026-10-29
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No	Held	5,263.7375	16.26¢	18¢	$947.47	$2.6K	+10.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	7,623.2356	29.4¢	59.5¢	$4.5K	$2.3K	+102.4%	2026-12-09
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5,011.3039	45.54¢	77.5¢	$3.9K	$2.3K	+70.2%	2026-10-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No	Held	1,821.1415	28.11¢	25.5¢	$464.39	$1.8K	-9.3%	2026-12-09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	2,646.7032	41.45¢	83.5¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	+101.4%	2026-10-29
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	1,752.894	2.04¢	69.95¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+3327.7%	2026-12-31
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	1,560	3.84¢	98.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+2463.6%	2026-10-05
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	1,862.132	52.02¢	77¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+48.0%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes	Held	4,100.5203	7.26¢	3.65¢	$149.67	$1.4K	-49.8%	2027-01-01
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes	Held	12,814.9097	69.43¢	81¢	$10.4K	$1.3K	+16.6%	2027-01-01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	609.8016	14.99¢	41.5¢	$253.07	$1.3K	+176.7%	2026-06-03
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Held	1,599.9893	3.12¢	84¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+2588.0%	2026-09-20
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	465.3966	50.99¢	51.5¢	$239.68	$1.2K	+1.0%	2026-10-28
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,600.0773	0.71¢	43.25¢	$692.03	$1.1K	+5946.4%	2027-04-19
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	605	15.12¢	58.25¢	$352.41	$1.1K	+285.1%	2026-06-03
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	301.947	5.26¢	63.5¢	$191.74	$1.1K	+1106.5%	2027-02-01
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,233.8934	2.94¢	6.3¢	$203.74	$1.1K	+114.2%	2026-12-31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? No	Held	341.6912	46.99¢	46.5¢	$158.89	$1.0K	-1.1%	2026-10-26
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? No	Held	341.7247	71.06¢	69¢	$235.79	$1.0K	-2.9%	2026-10-26
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	306.7966	5.26¢	36.5¢	$111.98	$1.0K	+593.5%	2027-02-01
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes	Held	1,101.6667	10¢	92.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+825.0%	2027-01-31
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,497.48	8¢	43.5¢	$1.1K	$886.61	+443.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	591.9937	23.57¢	95.55¢	$565.65	$875.51	+305.3%	2028-01-01
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,200.0117	2.94¢	22.5¢	$720.00	$856.27	+665.0%	2026-12-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No	Held	2,739.8712	64.54¢	95.3¢	$2.6K	$842.53	+47.6%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes	Held	1,600.7429	4.99¢	42¢	$672.31	$817.03	+740.0%	2028-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Held	667.6425	3.57¢	95.5¢	$637.60	$805.30	+2574.1%	2027-01-08
Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	97¢	$679.00	$799.59	+3198.1%	2026-09-14
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,000	54.25¢	93.5¢	$1.9K	$785.00	+72.4%	2027-01-01
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,602.4683	0.72¢	17.5¢	$280.43	$771.38	+2300.5%	2027-04-19
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? No	Held	3,509.9109	77.98¢	99.95¢	$3.5K	$770.81	+28.2%	2026-10-16
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Held	700	16.66¢	97.6¢	$683.20	$738.96	+485.6%	2026-09-21
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	305.098	3.18¢	49.5¢	$151.02	$735.55	+1454.5%	2027-02-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes	Held	103.7627	19.99¢	27.5¢	$28.53	$734.26	+37.5%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes	Held	2,183.9295	55.04¢	81.5¢	$1.8K	$699.95	+48.1%	2028-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	300	3.18¢	51.5¢	$154.50	$679.34	+1514.7%	2027-02-01
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI? Yes	Held	1,300	5.26¢	55.5¢	$721.50	$670.96	+954.5%	2028-01-01
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? Yes	Held	605	3.03¢	98.15¢	$593.81	$669.45	+3139.0%	2026-09-21
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	1,788.7815	2.11¢	3.05¢	$54.56	$661.46	+44.0%	2026-12-09
Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland? Yes	Held	694.976	3.03¢	97.85¢	$680.03	$661.33	+3129.1%	2026-09-14
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	509.9903	2.04¢	92.45¢	$471.49	$652.32	+4430.3%	2026-10-05
Will Anders Öberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Norrbotten? Yes	Held	699.7255	3.22¢	96¢	$671.74	$649.29	+2876.0%	2026-09-14
Will Elin Norén be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Dalarna? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	95.95¢	$671.65	$648.32	+2778.5%	2026-09-14
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	2,263.5021	18.45¢	23.5¢	$531.92	$648.03	+27.4%	2026-12-09
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? Yes	Held	700	3.12¢	95.4¢	$667.80	$645.92	+2952.8%	2026-09-14
Will Marcel Van Hattem win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? Yes	Held	610	2.5¢	99.95¢	$609.70	$637.20	+3898.0%	2026-10-05
Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland? Yes	Held	700	3.12¢	79.5¢	$556.50	$628.39	+2444.1%	2026-09-14
Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? Yes	Held	700	3.44¢	93¢	$651.00	$626.86	+2597.1%	2026-09-14
Will Jozef Viskupič win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	92.5¢	$647.50	$624.17	+2675.0%	2026-10-25
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	625.35	4.76¢	92.5¢	$578.45	$615.08	+1842.5%	2027-01-01
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes	Held	699.4431	5.26¢	86¢	$601.52	$607.18	+1534.0%	2028-01-01
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	508.9631	3.84¢	86¢	$437.71	$606.71	+2136.0%	2026-10-05
Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Held	606.974	14.28¢	98.45¢	$597.57	$606.04	+589.2%	2026-09-21
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes	Held	730.9867	9.4¢	78¢	$570.17	$603.23	+729.6%	2027-01-01
Will Sanderson win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? Yes	Held	553.9615	2.5¢	99.95¢	$553.68	$596.78	+3898.0%	2026-10-05
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	702.9052	1.35¢	42.5¢	$298.73	$594.31	+3045.1%	2027-01-02
Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? Yes	Held	700	3.12¢	67¢	$469.00	$589.69	+2044.1%	2026-09-14
Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? Yes	Held	700	3.22¢	85.2¢	$596.40	$573.82	+2541.2%	2026-09-14
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? Yes	Held	604.7711	2.63¢	94.85¢	$573.63	$567.86	+3504.4%	2027-07-31
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	702.5987	1.35¢	54.05¢	$379.75	$565.45	+3899.9%	2027-01-02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No	Held	3,549.8149	75.85¢	91.5¢	$3.2K	$555.54	+20.6%	2026-10-16
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.03¢	81¢	$567.00	$545.79	+2573.0%	2027-02-07
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes	Held	1,600	4.99¢	24.85¢	$397.60	$542.69	+397.0%	2028-01-01
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Held	700	2.85¢	80¢	$560.00	$540.00	+2700.0%	2026-09-07
Will Mikael Andersson Elfgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland? Yes	Held	620	3.12¢	85¢	$527.00	$538.74	+2620.0%	2026-09-14
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Yes	Held	1,300	5.26¢	42.5¢	$552.50	$538.43	+707.5%	2028-01-01
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	77.9¢	$545.30	$521.97	+2237.0%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	977.5413	17.83¢	24.5¢	$239.50	$515.18	+37.4%	2028-01-01
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	700	0¢	72¢	$504.00	$504.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? Yes	Held	680.1158	3.12¢	47¢	$319.65	$489.13	+1404.0%	2026-09-14
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes	Held	1,070.6092	40.35¢	77.5¢	$829.72	$483.86	+92.0%	2028-01-01
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	71.5¢	$500.50	$479.91	+2331.1%	2026-09-14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	16,776.0604	77.26¢	88.05¢	$14.8K	$466.95	+14.0%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? Yes	Held	1,340.1245	27.37¢	60¢	$804.07	$459.65	+119.2%	2026-10-21
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	703.7976	8.32¢	71.95¢	$506.38	$447.82	+764.6%	2027-01-01
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,200	2.94¢	12.2¢	$390.40	$443.55	+314.8%	2026-12-31
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.7213	3.12¢	71.3¢	$293.56	$409.83	+2181.6%	2026-11-01
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? Yes	Held	384.2619	12.5¢	84.95¢	$326.43	$396.80	+579.6%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Held	1,889.4444	43.66¢	63.5¢	$1.2K	$386.68	+45.4%	2028-01-01
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes	Held	1,139.8333	42.71¢	76.5¢	$871.97	$385.04	+79.1%	2028-01-01
Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	695.7438	25¢	79.5¢	$553.12	$380.24	+218.0%	2027-04-18
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? No	Held	1,204.5335	42.56¢	74¢	$891.35	$378.63	+73.8%	2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	480	5¢	62.5¢	$300.00	$375.00	+1150.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No	Held	1,655.3718	74.42¢	97¢	$1.6K	$373.68	+30.3%	2027-01-05
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? No	Held	616.514	28.63¢	82.5¢	$508.62	$365.29	+188.1%	2026-10-24
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	47.37	16.66¢	76.5¢	$36.24	$363.14	+359.0%	2027-01-01
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? No	Held	956.8184	7.04¢	44.6¢	$426.74	$359.37	+533.4%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No	Held	1,407.3401	43.9¢	64.5¢	$907.73	$359.03	+46.9%	—
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Held	525.0457	17¢	9.5¢	$49.88	$358.36	-44.1%	2026-12-01
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 100k? No	Held	583.5083	5.28¢	65.5¢	$382.20	$351.35	+1139.1%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	277.5273	2.94¢	56¢	$155.42	$346.06	+1804.0%	2026-10-31
Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	927.1579	2.04¢	9.05¢	$83.91	$343.94	+343.5%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3,071.3993	91.3¢	95.45¢	$2.9K	$339.71	+4.5%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election? Yes	Held	700	1.35¢	49.5¢	$346.50	$337.04	+3563.1%	2028-11-07
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? Yes	Held	688.5	16.66¢	64.5¢	$444.08	$334.67	+287.0%	2026-10-27
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,603.5979	0.71¢	12.5¢	$200.45	$330.83	+1647.5%	2027-04-19
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	102.0056	2.94¢	41.5¢	$42.33	$320.74	+1311.0%	2026-10-31
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	622.1586	2.04¢	3.9¢	$24.26	$318.44	+91.1%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	1,071.6092	19.53¢	29.35¢	$314.52	$317.42	+50.3%	2028-01-01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No	Held	860	52¢	87.5¢	$752.50	$305.30	+68.3%	2028-01-01
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes	Held	390	4.54¢	38.5¢	$150.15	$293.15	+747.0%	2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	391.2367	4.54¢	26.5¢	$103.68	$293.13	+483.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	2,937.986	3.03¢	3.4¢	$99.89	$282.39	+11.9%	2028-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	400	26¢	94.5¢	$378.00	$274.00	+263.5%	2027-01-01
Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? Yes	Held	680.12	3.12¢	18¢	$122.42	$262.83	+476.0%	2026-09-14
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Held	17,273.7496	20.55¢	11.5¢	$2.0K	$259.57	-44.1%	2027-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	7,031.7479	23.16¢	23.5¢	$1.7K	$258.50	+1.4%	2026-12-09
Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? Yes	Held	700	2.85¢	38.5¢	$269.50	$249.50	+1247.5%	2026-09-14
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	480.6116	5¢	37.5¢	$180.23	$249.47	+650.0%	2027-01-01
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	390.336	4.54¢	16.85¢	$65.77	$243.02	+270.7%	2027-01-01
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	393.8337	4.54¢	6.35¢	$25.01	$235.77	+39.7%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes	Held	2,062.7594	59.15¢	71.15¢	$1.5K	$227.46	+20.3%	2028-01-01
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes	Held	1,600	3.12¢	17¢	$272.00	$222.00	+444.0%	2026-09-20
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	410.0294	3.12¢	23.85¢	$97.79	$220.90	+663.2%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes	Held	442.6794	44.37¢	93.5¢	$413.91	$217.48	+110.7%	2027-01-05
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3,639.4106	3.73¢	1.5¢	$54.59	$216.51	-59.8%	2026-11-01
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,601.1776	0.72¢	12.45¢	$199.35	$211.92	+1619.8%	2027-04-19
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OA? Yes	Held	1,300	5.26¢	21.15¢	$274.95	$205.73	+301.9%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT? Yes	Held	1,296.3211	5.26¢	17.5¢	$226.86	$197.36	+232.5%	2028-01-01
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes	Held	3,463.7883	72.33¢	78¢	$2.7K	$196.15	+7.8%	2026-12-10
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes	Held	457.5878	4.46¢	7¢	$32.03	$192.55	+56.8%	2028-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No	Held	661.428	27.1¢	55.5¢	$367.09	$187.81	+104.8%	2026-11-30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No	Held	600	66¢	96.95¢	$581.70	$185.70	+46.9%	2026-10-31
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	395.5173	3.12¢	47¢	$185.89	$182.91	+1404.0%	2026-11-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,000	72¢	89.5¢	$895.00	$175.00	+24.3%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Held	97.4083	34.56¢	69.5¢	$67.70	$174.01	+101.1%	2027-01-05
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? Yes	Held	195	4¢	92.55¢	$180.47	$172.67	+2213.8%	2026-10-12
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027? No	Held	347.8025	33.79¢	42.5¢	$147.82	$171.89	+25.8%	2027-07-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	2,248.8396	3.45¢	1.45¢	$32.61	$167.70	-58.0%	2028-01-01
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? Yes	Held	699.99	3.12¢	8¢	$56.00	$166.67	+156.0%	2026-09-14
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	508.9875	3.84¢	12.5¢	$63.62	$164.12	+225.0%	2026-10-05
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? No	Held	440.1279	51.96¢	88¢	$387.31	$158.00	+69.3%	2026-10-16
Reya FDV above $10M one day after launch? No	Held	419.2803	24.61¢	61¢	$255.76	$152.54	+147.8%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump endorse Marco Rubio in the 2028 US Presidential election? Yes	Held	700	1.35¢	23¢	$161.00	$151.54	+1602.1%	2028-11-07
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No	Held	740.4902	75.37¢	95.5¢	$707.17	$149.01	+26.7%	2027-01-01
Will Marie Morell be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland? Yes	Held	700	3.12¢	15¢	$105.00	$143.09	+380.0%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No	Held	437	21.05¢	24.5¢	$107.06	$143.07	+16.3%	2027-01-05
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	169.1395	1.88¢	28.5¢	$48.20	$141.64	+1410.6%	2026-10-25
Will Anna Strandh Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? Yes	Held	700	2.85¢	22.75¢	$159.25	$139.25	+696.3%	2026-09-14
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	20.5¢	$143.50	$135.97	+1806.6%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? Yes	Held	5,135.6191	10.12¢	10.5¢	$539.24	$135.44	+3.7%	2026-10-11
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Held	660.86	3.57¢	4.75¢	$31.39	$135.29	+33.0%	2027-01-08
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes	Held	4,222.6398	13.27¢	16.4¢	$692.51	$131.82	+23.5%	2028-01-01
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes	Held	939.7383	75.51¢	89.5¢	$841.07	$131.45	+18.5%	2028-01-01
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	395.5173	3.12¢	31.85¢	$125.97	$122.99	+919.2%	2026-11-01
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	72¢	95.5¢	$477.50	$117.50	+32.6%	2027-01-01
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes	Held	756.46	81.06¢	96.6¢	$730.74	$117.49	+19.2%	2028-01-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? No	Held	610	80.36¢	99.05¢	$604.21	$114.01	+23.3%	2026-10-09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	1,140.3135	14.28¢	16.5¢	$188.15	$112.46	+15.5%	2028-01-01
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	700	0¢	15¢	$105.00	$105.00	0.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	228.86	21¢	65¢	$148.76	$100.70	+209.5%	2028-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	119.051	50.99¢	87.5¢	$104.17	$98.45	+71.6%	2027-01-01
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	15¢	$105.00	$97.47	+1295.1%	2027-04-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 5-11? No	Held	200	38.99¢	87.7¢	$175.40	$97.42	+124.9%	2026-10-12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No	Held	344.0558	42.62¢	70.7¢	$243.25	$96.59	+65.9%	—
Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C or below on October 8? Yes	Held	100	4¢	99.95¢	$99.95	$95.95	+2398.8%	2026-10-08
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,000	9¢	13.5¢	$270.00	$90.00	+50.0%	2027-01-01
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9? Yes	Held	163.3251	47.19¢	100¢	$163.33	$86.24	+111.9%	2026-07-09
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? Yes	Held	297.3115	73.14¢	96.15¢	$285.87	$85.78	+31.5%	2027-07-01
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? Yes	Held	688.5	16.66¢	28.5¢	$196.22	$85.31	+71.0%	2026-10-27
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes	Held	2,679.2973	95.32¢	98.5¢	$2.6K	$85.06	+3.3%	2028-01-01
Will Hanna Ekblad be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? Yes	Held	795.51	2.94¢	7.1¢	$56.48	$84.70	+141.4%	2026-09-14
Will Tommie Ekered be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	14.85¢	$103.95	$83.36	+404.9%	2026-09-14
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	700	0¢	11.5¢	$80.50	$80.50	0.0%	2027-01-01
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Held	541.1502	82.33¢	98.35¢	$532.22	$80.05	+19.5%	2027-01-01
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes	Held	492.9583	47.98¢	64¢	$315.49	$78.92	+33.4%	2028-01-01
Will Barry Avotu Johnson win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.03¢	14.3¢	$100.10	$78.89	+371.9%	2027-02-07
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	451.8542	38.13¢	55.5¢	$250.78	$78.45	+45.5%	2028-01-01
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,601.7988	0.72¢	3.45¢	$55.26	$76.86	+373.2%	2027-04-19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes	Held	2,046.35	3.37¢	7.05¢	$144.27	$75.22	+109.0%	2027-01-05
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	1,600	0.71¢	3.05¢	$48.80	$75.11	+326.4%	2027-04-19
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? No	Held	1,000	78¢	85.5¢	$855.00	$75.00	+9.6%	2026-11-01
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 14, 2026? Yes	Held	289.9898	3.33¢	25.8¢	$74.82	$74.48	+674.0%	2026-10-15
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? Yes	Held	272.4766	13.09¢	38.5¢	$104.90	$73.85	+194.0%	2027-01-01
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	442.4554	12.5¢	8.85¢	$39.16	$73.80	-29.2%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No	Held	430	37.4¢	54.5¢	$234.35	$73.53	+45.7%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No	Held	362.9495	47.99¢	65.5¢	$237.73	$73.38	+36.5%	—
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	199.509	0¢	36.5¢	$72.82	$72.82	0.0%	2026-12-31
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No	Held	349.885	6.89¢	27.5¢	$96.22	$72.09	+298.8%	2028-01-01
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more? Yes	Held	350.7977	15.34¢	34.5¢	$121.03	$67.19	+124.8%	2026-10-08
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	395.5173	3.12¢	17.5¢	$69.22	$66.24	+460.0%	2026-10-31
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes	Held	480.6357	3.22¢	5.6¢	$26.92	$66.16	+73.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	10.5¢	$73.50	$65.97	+876.6%	2027-04-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? No	Held	227.3083	31.05¢	36.5¢	$82.97	$64.48	+17.5%	2026-10-18
Reya FDV above $40M one day after launch? No	Held	200	32¢	64¢	$128.00	$64.00	+100.0%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	1,051.7241	58.63¢	64.5¢	$678.36	$61.64	+10.0%	2026-11-30
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No	Held	100	27.98¢	24.5¢	$24.50	$61.48	-12.5%	2026-11-04
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? No	Held	1,304.6254	89.89¢	96.8¢	$1.3K	$59.56	+7.7%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40.2615	81.23¢	84.5¢	$34.02	$58.31	+4.0%	2026-11-01
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	500	3¢	14.5¢	$72.50	$57.50	+383.3%	2027-07-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? Yes	Held	430	58.67¢	71.5¢	$307.45	$55.15	+21.9%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.0781	86.76¢	97.65¢	$488.33	$54.68	+12.5%	2026-12-31
Will Malin Sjölander be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? Yes	Held	700	3.22¢	10.9¢	$76.30	$53.72	+237.9%	2026-09-14
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	3,906.9835	3.15¢	3.4¢	$132.84	$52.38	+7.7%	2027-01-29
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes	Held	814.3795	69.24¢	75.45¢	$614.45	$50.51	+9.0%	2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? No	Held	1,000	94.65¢	99.65¢	$996.50	$50.00	+5.3%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No	Held	627.199	90.2¢	98¢	$614.66	$48.91	+8.6%	2027-01-05
Will Björn Tenland Nurhadi be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	3.45¢	$24.15	$47.20	+17.3%	2026-09-14
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? No	Held	211.7463	30.23¢	52.5¢	$111.17	$47.16	+73.7%	2026-09-14
Will Kenneth Östberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland? Yes	Held	620	3.12¢	4.5¢	$27.90	$46.02	+44.0%	2026-09-14
Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes	Held	353.6793	3.22¢	16.2¢	$57.30	$45.89	+402.2%	2027-07-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No	Held	1,000	87¢	91.5¢	$915.00	$45.00	+5.2%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Yes	Held	1,300.0042	5.26¢	8.55¢	$111.15	$44.28	+62.5%	2028-01-01
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October? Yes	Held	1,000	17.07¢	21.5¢	$215.00	$44.27	+25.9%	2026-11-01
Will Robert Thunfors be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? Yes	Held	700	2.85¢	9.1¢	$63.70	$43.70	+218.5%	2026-09-14
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	321.068	46.92¢	8.5¢	$27.29	$42.59	-81.9%	2026-11-01
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30? No	Held	110.22	40¢	78.5¢	$86.52	$42.43	+96.3%	2026-10-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	2,391.114	1.53¢	3¢	$71.73	$41.74	+94.9%	2026-12-09
Will Pia Lundin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland? Yes	Held	700	2.85¢	8.8¢	$61.60	$41.60	+208.0%	2026-09-14
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%? Yes	Held	350.6989	13.74¢	25¢	$87.67	$39.49	+81.9%	2026-10-08
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No	Held	809.3093	26.26¢	31¢	$250.89	$39.38	+18.0%	2027-01-01
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No	Held	62.3717	50.32¢	41.45¢	$25.85	$38.97	-17.6%	2027-01-01
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	64.37	29¢	89.5¢	$57.61	$38.94	+208.6%	2027-07-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 9? Yes	Held	149.8076	5.5¢	31.35¢	$46.96	$38.72	+470.0%	2026-10-09
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Yes	Held	619.9751	18.87¢	25.05¢	$155.30	$38.29	+32.7%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No	Held	747.0611	80.99¢	94.5¢	$705.97	$37.64	+16.7%	2027-01-05
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes	Held	500	92.1¢	99.5¢	$497.50	$37.00	+8.0%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No	Held	155.2807	47.63¢	70.5¢	$109.47	$35.50	+48.0%	2028-01-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? No	Held	166.0305	40.89¢	62¢	$102.94	$35.04	+51.6%	2026-10-15
Will Kristalina Georgieva be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes	Held	123.8574	2.12¢	29.55¢	$36.60	$33.96	+1289.0%	2027-07-01
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes	Held	123.8574	2.12¢	29.55¢	$36.60	$33.96	+1289.0%	2027-07-01
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	701.6174	8.32¢	13.15¢	$92.26	$33.83	+57.9%	2027-01-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? Yes	Held	239.7068	8.39¢	18.5¢	$44.35	$33.41	+120.3%	2026-10-13
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11? Yes	Held	199.9969	23.49¢	40¢	$80.00	$33.02	+70.3%	2026-10-12
Will Ogboru Great Ovedje win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.03¢	7.65¢	$53.55	$32.34	+152.5%	2027-02-07
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No	Held	270.6222	83.99¢	94¢	$254.38	$32.19	+11.9%	2027-01-05
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,350.0098	97.08¢	99.45¢	$1.3K	$31.95	+2.4%	2027-01-01
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%? Yes	Held	350.7675	13.92¢	23¢	$80.68	$31.82	+65.1%	2026-10-08
Will Håkan Karlsson-Nyborg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	7.45¢	$52.15	$31.56	+153.3%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)? Yes	Held	1,207.2746	3.01¢	4.8¢	$57.95	$31.14	+59.4%	2028-01-01
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	173.9542	83.48¢	92.5¢	$160.91	$30.28	+10.8%	2026-11-01
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	498.0305	93.45¢	99.7¢	$496.54	$30.26	+6.7%	2026-12-31
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	700	0¢	4.3¢	$30.10	$30.10	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	5.35¢	$37.45	$29.92	+397.6%	2027-04-01
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes	Held	227.0959	54.21¢	84.5¢	$191.90	$29.84	+55.9%	2028-01-01
Will Joe Burrow be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	5.25¢	$36.75	$29.22	+388.3%	2027-04-01
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	199.9144	1.4¢	15.45¢	$30.89	$28.07	+997.1%	2026-10-10
Will Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump Jr. in the 2028 US Presidential election? Yes	Held	700	1.35¢	5.25¢	$36.75	$27.29	+288.5%	2028-11-06
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026? Yes	Held	289.9898	3.33¢	12.45¢	$36.10	$26.02	+273.5%	2026-10-14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes	Held	3,404.0777	11.07¢	11.5¢	$391.47	$25.99	+3.8%	2026-10-26
Will Rafael Fiziev fight Benoit Saint-Denis next? Yes	Held	99.8478	6.24¢	30.5¢	$30.45	$24.21	+388.0%	2027-06-27
Will Baidu be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	415.5173	3.12¢	8.95¢	$37.19	$24.21	+186.4%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump endorse Eric Trump in the 2028 US Presidential election? Yes	Held	700	1.35¢	4.8¢	$33.60	$24.14	+255.2%	2028-11-07
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	4.5¢	$31.50	$23.97	+318.5%	2027-04-01
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	4.5¢	$31.50	$23.97	+318.5%	2027-04-01
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,233.8867	2.94¢	3.15¢	$101.87	$23.62	+7.1%	2027-01-01
Will Mile Svilar (Roma) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Serie A season? Yes	Held	69.9894	1.78¢	35.5¢	$24.85	$23.60	+1888.0%	2027-06-15
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? No	Held	52.716	47¢	91.5¢	$48.24	$23.46	+94.7%	2026-11-01
Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes	Held	353.6793	3.22¢	9.6¢	$33.95	$22.54	+197.6%	2027-07-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October? No	Held	50	49.6¢	93.5¢	$46.75	$21.95	+88.5%	2026-11-01
StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Held	266.8071	38.35¢	46.5¢	$124.07	$21.73	+21.2%	2027-01-01
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes	Held	900	0.4¢	2.75¢	$24.75	$21.15	+587.5%	2027-01-01
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	999.9875	18.39¢	20.5¢	$205.00	$21.06	+11.4%	2027-01-01
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? No	Held	403.1597	90.3¢	95.5¢	$385.02	$20.93	+5.7%	2027-01-01
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.0493	95.48¢	99.65¢	$498.30	$20.93	+4.4%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $70 in 2026? No	Held	152.9382	80.99¢	94.6¢	$144.68	$20.80	+16.8%	2027-01-01
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T? No	Held	204.9861	71.54¢	83¢	$170.14	$20.13	+16.0%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No	Held	228.8552	75.99¢	84.5¢	$193.38	$19.45	+11.2%	2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? Yes	Held	93.38	14.92¢	35¢	$32.68	$18.74	+134.5%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump in the 2028 US Presidential election? Yes	Held	700	1.35¢	4¢	$28.00	$18.54	+196.0%	2028-11-07
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes	Held	957.1	90.8¢	92.6¢	$886.27	$17.21	+2.0%	2026-12-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October? No	Held	500	95.9¢	99.25¢	$496.25	$16.75	+3.5%	2026-11-01
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 15? Yes	Held	259.9902	88.17¢	94.5¢	$245.69	$16.45	+7.2%	2026-10-16
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027? Yes	Held	403.0877	5.96¢	10¢	$40.31	$16.28	+67.7%	2027-01-01
Will Patrick Mahomes be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Held	700	1.07¢	3.4¢	$23.80	$16.27	+216.2%	2027-04-01
Will Mia Frisk be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County? Yes	Held	700	2.94¢	5.2¢	$36.40	$15.81	+76.8%	2026-09-14
Will Peter Hambálek win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	5.5¢	$38.50	$15.17	+65.0%	2026-10-25
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,000	12¢	13.5¢	$135.00	$15.00	+12.5%	2027-01-01
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? No	Held	35.2865	54.59¢	96.85¢	$34.17	$14.91	+77.4%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes	Held	3,536.7678	11.15¢	10.5¢	$371.36	$14.12	-5.9%	2028-01-01
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes	Held	39.42	61¢	96¢	$37.84	$13.80	+57.4%	2028-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Held	45.1846	44¢	74.5¢	$33.66	$13.78	+69.3%	2027-01-01
Will Nkwoala Emeka win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election? Yes	Held	700	3.03¢	4.95¢	$34.65	$13.44	+63.4%	2027-02-07
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	458.1309	90.39¢	97.9¢	$448.51	$13.04	+8.3%	2028-01-01
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No	Held	873.6255	93.21¢	94.7¢	$827.32	$12.99	+1.6%	2028-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	854.9553	89.93¢	98.35¢	$840.85	$12.92	+9.4%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes	Held	107.354	29¢	41¢	$44.02	$12.88	+41.4%	2026-11-30
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Held	164.9166	15.69¢	23.5¢	$38.76	$12.87	+49.7%	2026-09-14
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	890	97.27¢	98.7¢	$878.43	$12.65	+1.5%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	1,051.7037	40.31¢	41.5¢	$436.46	$12.50	+2.9%	2026-12-31
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	271.2178	84.97¢	89.5¢	$242.74	$12.28	+5.3%	2026-11-01
Will Sebastian Cehlin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	5.05¢	$35.35	$12.02	+51.5%	2026-09-14
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No	Held	47.6	61¢	84.15¢	$40.06	$11.02	+38.0%	2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? No	Held	108.6403	67.69¢	77.5¢	$84.20	$10.66	+14.5%	2027-02-01
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500	96.1¢	98.2¢	$491.00	$10.50	+2.2%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? No	Held	299.9861	61.08¢	64.5¢	$193.49	$10.23	+5.6%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Held	2,046.3446	95.21¢	95.7¢	$2.0K	$10.02	+0.5%	2027-01-05
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 5-11? No	Held	550	96.45¢	98.25¢	$540.38	$9.88	+1.9%	2026-10-12
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026? Yes	Held	1,103.4265	18.33¢	18.5¢	$204.13	$9.76	+0.9%	2027-01-01
OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026? No	Held	69.163	70¢	72.5¢	$50.14	$9.52	+3.6%	2026-10-16
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	496.4217	43.09¢	45¢	$223.39	$9.47	+4.4%	2026-10-28
Manchester City punishment announced by November 20? No	Held	40	65.5¢	88.5¢	$35.40	$9.20	+35.1%	2026-11-21
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.1081	97.65¢	99.75¢	$498.86	$9.16	+2.1%	2026-12-31
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	337.3168	96.92¢	99.6¢	$335.97	$9.08	+2.8%	2026-12-31
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? No	Held	271.2359	13.65¢	17¢	$46.11	$9.07	+24.5%	2026-10-16
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No	Held	820.4016	84.04¢	84.5¢	$693.24	$9.04	+0.5%	2028-01-01
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by November 30? No	Held	79.9879	82.99¢	94¢	$75.19	$8.80	+13.3%	2026-12-01
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No	Held	103.9603	89.57¢	97.9¢	$101.78	$8.66	+9.3%	2028-01-01
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No	Held	60.17	74.17¢	88.5¢	$53.25	$8.62	+19.3%	2028-01-01
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? Yes	Held	59.9206	40.5¢	54.5¢	$32.66	$8.39	+34.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	499.9899	96.32¢	97.95¢	$489.74	$8.11	+1.7%	2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? Yes	Held	38.05	50¢	70.5¢	$26.83	$7.73	+41.0%	2027-01-01
Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	36.54	77¢	98.1¢	$35.85	$7.71	+27.4%	2026-11-01
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	355.5755	97.79¢	99.9¢	$355.22	$7.49	+2.2%	2026-12-31
Will Sofia Jarl be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Dalarna? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	4.4¢	$30.80	$7.47	+32.0%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC? Yes	Held	2,100.0227	4.99¢	5.35¢	$112.35	$7.43	+7.0%	2028-01-01
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.032	97.69¢	99.1¢	$495.53	$7.06	+1.4%	2026-12-31
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? Yes	Held	879.3859	13.75¢	14.5¢	$127.51	$6.54	+5.4%	2028-01-01
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	498.4029	98.07¢	99.45¢	$495.66	$5.91	+1.4%	2026-12-31
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	150.3599	94.73¢	98.6¢	$148.25	$5.81	+4.1%	2027-01-01
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.0131	98.54¢	99.65¢	$498.26	$5.52	+1.1%	2026-12-31
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026? Yes	Held	30	65.33¢	83.5¢	$25.05	$5.45	+27.8%	2026-11-01
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Held	623.56	79.48¢	80.35¢	$501.03	$5.40	+1.1%	2028-01-01
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? No	Held	199.8935	91.79¢	94.5¢	$188.90	$5.40	+2.9%	2028-01-01
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T? Yes	Held	89.87	33.66¢	39.5¢	$35.50	$5.25	+17.3%	2028-01-01
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30? No	Held	53.8695	86.2¢	95.3¢	$51.34	$4.90	+10.6%	2026-12-01
Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week? No	Held	47.1372	84.77¢	86.6¢	$40.82	$4.87	+2.2%	2026-10-09
Manchester City punishment announced by December 18? Yes	Held	71.8	34.99¢	41.5¢	$29.80	$4.67	+18.6%	2026-12-19
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)? Yes	Held	1,284.359	2.81¢	3.15¢	$40.46	$4.38	+12.1%	2028-01-01
Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Held	123.59	94.81¢	98.25¢	$121.43	$4.24	+3.6%	2027-01-01
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.089	93.6¢	94.35¢	$471.83	$4.14	+0.8%	2026-12-31
Will Robert Fredriksson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? Yes	Held	700	3.12¢	3.7¢	$25.90	$4.03	+18.4%	2026-09-14
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	175.2539	60.15¢	54.5¢	$95.51	$3.89	-9.4%	2026-11-01
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by June 30, 2027? No	Held	69.9855	68.99¢	74.5¢	$52.14	$3.85	+8.0%	2027-07-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Held	93.4457	93.9¢	97.95¢	$91.53	$3.78	+4.3%	2027-01-05
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Held	93.3658	81.99¢	85.5¢	$79.83	$3.27	+4.3%	2027-01-01
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	107.2171	95.4¢	98.05¢	$105.13	$2.84	+2.8%	2028-01-01
Base FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	100.5318	61.25¢	64¢	$64.34	$2.76	+4.5%	2028-01-01
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	40	88¢	94.5¢	$37.80	$2.60	+7.4%	2026-11-30
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	500.0748	99.21¢	99.75¢	$498.82	$2.56	+0.5%	2026-12-31
Will Eduardo Paes win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round? No	Held	160	92¢	93.5¢	$149.60	$2.40	+1.6%	2026-10-26
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 October 5-11? No	Held	124.415	98.28¢	99.85¢	$124.23	$1.95	+1.6%	2026-10-12
Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? Yes	Held	700	3.33¢	3.6¢	$25.20	$1.87	+8.0%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	1,176.9797	12.02¢	14.8¢	$174.19	$1.81	+23.0%	2028-01-01
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? Yes	Held	199.9056	13.65¢	14.5¢	$28.99	$1.69	+6.2%	2027-08-01
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 8? Yes	Held	30	85¢	90.5¢	$27.15	$1.65	+6.5%	2026-10-08
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	183.2632	99.18¢	99.85¢	$182.99	$1.49	+0.7%	2026-12-31
Will XRP reach $2.80 in October? No	Held	40	95¢	98.6¢	$39.44	$1.44	+3.8%	2026-11-01
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%? Yes	Held	350.7891	14.62¢	15¢	$52.62	$1.33	+2.6%	2026-10-08
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? No	Held	59.9785	47.54¢	49.5¢	$29.69	$1.18	+4.1%	2026-11-01
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	35.9868	95¢	97.9¢	$35.23	$1.04	+3.1%	2027-01-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 8? No	Held	77.2643	96.3¢	97.55¢	$75.37	$0.96	+1.3%	2026-10-08
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? No	Held	60	81¢	82.5¢	$49.50	$0.90	+1.9%	2027-01-01
Will there be 7+ walk-offs during the 2026 MLB Postseason? No	Held	40	92.87¢	95.05¢	$38.02	$0.87	+2.3%	2026-11-16
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 5-11? No	Held	90	97.9¢	98.85¢	$88.97	$0.85	+1.0%	2026-10-12
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	39.9879	82.99¢	85¢	$33.99	$0.80	+2.4%	2026-10-31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 8? No	Held	77.2616	98.59¢	99.55¢	$76.91	$0.73	+1.0%	2026-10-08
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes	Held	69.1532	63.51¢	71.5¢	$49.44	$0.70	+12.6%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40.1746	95.59¢	94.8¢	$38.09	$0.58	-0.8%	2026-10-31
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes	Held	415.9758	12.72¢	12.85¢	$53.45	$0.52	+1.0%	2028-01-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? No	Held	260	88.3¢	88.5¢	$230.10	$0.50	+0.2%	2026-10-11
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? No	Held	81.9376	98.7¢	99.05¢	$81.16	$0.29	+0.4%	2026-11-01
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round? No	Held	135.08	83.29¢	83.5¢	$112.79	$0.28	+0.2%	2026-10-26
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Held	39.9888	96.27¢	96.85¢	$38.73	$0.23	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027? No	Held	25	94.99¢	95.5¢	$23.88	$0.13	+0.5%	2026-12-31
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on October 8? No	Held	51.593	99.79¢	99.7¢	$51.44	-$0.05	-0.1%	2026-10-08
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? No	Held	30	97.4¢	97.15¢	$29.14	-$0.07	-0.3%	2027-03-01
Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? No	Held	25.345	99.89¢	99.6¢	$25.24	-$0.08	-0.3%	2026-10-09
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on October 8? No	Held	51.593	99.79¢	99.6¢	$51.39	-$0.10	-0.2%	2026-10-08
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No	Held	439.9907	98.85¢	98.8¢	$434.71	-$0.25	-0.1%	2026-12-31
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? No	Held	25.3305	99.79¢	98.7¢	$25.00	-$0.28	-1.1%	2026-10-09
Will the Montreal Canadiens record 80+ points? Yes	Held	60	92¢	91.5¢	$54.90	-$0.30	-0.5%	2027-04-30
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? No	Held	25.3305	99.79¢	98.55¢	$24.96	-$0.32	-1.3%	2026-10-09
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 8? No	Held	51.5902	98.09¢	97.2¢	$50.15	-$0.46	-0.9%	2026-10-08
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $3T? No	Held	158.4575	96.87¢	96.45¢	$152.83	-$0.67	-0.4%	2028-01-01
Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	233.3505	99.79¢	99.5¢	$232.18	-$0.69	-0.3%	2026-10-28
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Held	423.5759	48¢	47.5¢	$201.20	-$0.73	-1.0%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40	99¢	97.75¢	$39.10	-$0.89	-1.3%	2026-10-31
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	266.793	54.11¢	53.5¢	$142.73	-$1.65	-1.1%	2027-01-01
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T? Yes	Held	89.4002	93.18¢	90.6¢	$81.00	-$2.31	-2.8%	2028-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	107.3478	68.99¢	66.5¢	$71.39	-$2.68	-3.6%	2026-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes	Held	699.5839	5.26¢	4.75¢	$33.23	-$3.40	-9.7%	2028-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 20, 2026? Yes	Held	909.126	3.12¢	2.7¢	$24.55	-$3.47	-13.6%	2026-10-20
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	6,957.9962	0.65¢	0.6¢	$41.75	-$3.59	-7.9%	2027-04-19
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	69.37	71.9¢	63.25¢	$43.88	-$6.00	-12.0%	2028-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? Yes	Held	108.5985	31.3¢	25.5¢	$27.69	-$6.31	-18.5%	2027-03-01
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)? Yes	Held	1,275.3235	2.69¢	2.15¢	$27.42	-$6.96	-20.3%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AAGI? Yes	Held	1,300.005	5.26¢	4.9¢	$63.70	-$7.42	-6.9%	2028-01-01
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	476	12.19¢	10.5¢	$49.98	-$8.06	-13.9%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No	Held	78.2237	84¢	73.5¢	$57.49	-$8.21	-12.5%	2027-01-05
Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	80	88.19¢	77.85¢	$62.28	-$8.28	-11.7%	2027-10-01
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4? No	Held	88.9976	85.91¢	81.1¢	$72.18	-$8.54	-5.6%	2026-12-02
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	1,636.5261	4.77¢	3.75¢	$61.37	-$10.63	-21.5%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? Yes	Held	2,100.154	4.99¢	4.45¢	$93.46	-$11.53	-11.0%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	287.2728	99.06¢	97.6¢	$280.38	-$14.20	-1.5%	2026-10-31
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? No	Held	451.8457	60.69¢	57.5¢	$259.81	-$14.46	-5.3%	2027-07-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? Yes	Held	1,680.8881	14.56¢	7¢	$117.66	-$14.86	-51.9%	2026-10-10
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes	Held	538.7507	20.3¢	8¢	$43.10	-$16.28	-60.6%	2027-01-05
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Held	499.996	95.44¢	91.5¢	$457.50	-$19.71	-4.1%	2027-01-01
Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	142.6945	97.72¢	98¢	$139.84	-$22.52	+0.3%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Yes	Held	2,055.723	4.99¢	3.9¢	$80.17	-$23.30	-22.0%	2028-01-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? Yes	Held	609.9642	11.01¢	6.6¢	$40.26	-$26.91	-40.1%	2026-10-16
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes	Held	1,099.9999	10¢	6.6¢	$72.60	-$26.94	-34.0%	2027-01-31
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Held	2,677.8232	3.38¢	2.25¢	$60.25	-$30.34	-33.5%	2028-01-01
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31? Yes	Held	110.2142	55.99¢	26.5¢	$29.21	-$32.51	-52.7%	2026-11-01
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,203.8867	2.94¢	1.3¢	$41.65	-$36.16	-55.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes	Held	990.3296	6.13¢	2.45¢	$24.26	-$36.45	-60.0%	2027-01-05
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	1,792.1558	2.77¢	3¢	$53.76	-$36.55	+8.0%	2026-09-14
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes	Held	1,315.2592	8.59¢	2.2¢	$28.94	-$38.80	-74.4%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM? Yes	Held	1,300	5.26¢	2.35¢	$30.55	-$40.14	-55.3%	2028-01-01
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026? No	Held	159.9894	94.93¢	96.35¢	$154.15	-$41.87	+1.5%	2026-10-30
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No	Held	334.7033	63.93¢	54.5¢	$182.41	-$42.49	-14.8%	2027-01-05
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	499.9941	16.29¢	7.5¢	$37.50	-$43.99	-54.0%	2027-07-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? Yes	Held	150	88.99¢	59.5¢	$89.25	-$44.25	-33.1%	2026-10-09
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? Yes	Held	639.7763	10.81¢	3.8¢	$24.31	-$44.88	-64.9%	2027-07-01
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 5-11? No	Held	375.58	95.9¢	99.05¢	$372.01	-$45.28	+3.3%	2026-10-12
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	215.15	90.81¢	90.8¢	$195.36	-$47.77	-0.0%	2026-10-31
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes	Held	345.58	55.39¢	41.5¢	$143.42	-$48.00	-25.1%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No	Held	278.5335	97.4¢	97.45¢	$271.43	-$49.19	+0.0%	2027-01-05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Held	525.0472	73.99¢	81.5¢	$427.91	-$49.74	+10.1%	2027-01-01
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026? No	Held	34.2429	92.59¢	95.9¢	$32.84	-$53.66	+3.6%	2026-10-28
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 50k? Yes	Held	581.6141	86.89¢	77.5¢	$450.75	-$54.67	-10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	89.7289	93.31¢	96.95¢	$86.99	-$54.83	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,233.8867	2.94¢	1.55¢	$50.13	-$54.98	-47.3%	2026-12-31
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? Yes	Held	859.9918	43.71¢	36.5¢	$313.90	-$62.04	-16.5%	2029-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	129.63	58.98¢	39.5¢	$51.20	-$62.11	-33.0%	2027-07-01
Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,313.8867	2.94¢	1.45¢	$48.05	-$62.73	-50.7%	2026-12-31
Will Gabriel Attal, but not Édouard Philippe, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	695.74	25¢	15.65¢	$108.88	-$66.08	-37.4%	2027-04-18
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? Yes	Held	688.5	16.66¢	6.7¢	$46.13	-$70.26	-59.8%	2026-10-27
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026? No	Held	44.2429	90.09¢	86¢	$38.05	-$70.79	-4.6%	2026-10-22
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026? No	Held	40.1101	90.26¢	90.35¢	$36.24	-$71.19	+0.1%	2026-10-20
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026? No	Held	31.16	93.59¢	96.35¢	$30.02	-$71.78	+2.9%	2026-10-27
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes	Held	203.1912	75.85¢	78.5¢	$159.51	-$75.22	+3.5%	2026-12-16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes	Held	999.9806	27.43¢	19.5¢	$195.00	-$79.38	-28.9%	2026-10-31
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	971.4158	68¢	59.5¢	$577.99	-$82.61	-12.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	324.7215	47.15¢	14.5¢	$47.08	-$86.16	-69.3%	2027-01-01
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No	Held	756.4117	16.99¢	5.5¢	$41.60	-$86.99	-67.6%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No	Held	363.4044	95.14¢	96.7¢	$351.41	-$89.05	+1.6%	2027-01-05
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	500.0007	98.09¢	98.85¢	$494.25	-$92.52	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes	Held	407.401	74.62¢	81.5¢	$332.03	-$92.62	+9.2%	2027-01-05
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	150	98¢	99.35¢	$149.03	-$94.81	+1.4%	2027-01-01
Will Taylor Rogers be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,719.2797	2.94¢	1¢	$37.19	-$102.26	-66.0%	2026-12-31
Will Liz Huston be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,704.2547	2.94¢	0.75¢	$27.78	-$103.00	-74.5%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes	Held	2,345.8835	7.92¢	1.05¢	$24.63	-$103.96	-86.8%	2028-01-01
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	3,969.0467	2.94¢	0.6¢	$23.81	-$110.20	-79.6%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes	Held	1,204.5239	54.66¢	45.5¢	$548.06	-$110.45	-16.8%	2027-01-01
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,328.8	67.63¢	59¢	$783.99	-$114.80	-12.8%	2026-11-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 9, 2026? No	Held	260.6908	99.79¢	99.35¢	$259.00	-$116.58	-0.5%	2026-10-09
Will Discord IPO by December 31, 2026? No	Held	278.4741	84.19¢	95¢	$264.55	-$117.47	+12.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	2,531.6194	8.59¢	3.6¢	$91.14	-$118.12	-58.1%	2028-01-01
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	4,117.1397	2.94¢	0.6¢	$24.70	-$119.96	-79.6%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	1,096.5317	6.44¢	3.5¢	$38.38	-$125.72	-45.7%	2028-01-01
Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	695.74	25¢	5.5¢	$38.27	-$136.57	-78.0%	2027-04-18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	600	33¢	9.5¢	$57.00	-$141.00	-71.2%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes	Held	562.014	33.16¢	6.5¢	$36.53	-$149.88	-80.4%	2027-01-05
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? No	Held	1,376.1298	71.2¢	60.5¢	$832.56	-$150.08	-15.0%	2027-01-01
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No	Held	119.0564	91.96¢	98.65¢	$117.45	-$155.29	+7.3%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Yes	Held	530.5989	64.46¢	32.5¢	$172.44	-$169.59	-49.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,500	94.66¢	96.95¢	$1.5K	-$170.75	+2.4%	2027-01-01
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes	Held	1,581.2365	25.73¢	14.5¢	$229.28	-$177.60	-43.6%	2027-01-01
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	619.2469	68.05¢	34¢	$210.54	-$210.87	-50.0%	2027-01-01
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	1,139.8245	55.28¢	35.5¢	$404.64	-$225.46	-35.8%	2028-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes	Held	450.9078	53.36¢	31.85¢	$143.61	-$235.08	-40.3%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	400.0022	67.96¢	7.5¢	$30.00	-$241.85	-89.0%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? No	Held	341.7781	93.55¢	93.6¢	$319.90	-$247.21	+0.0%	2026-10-26
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,500	13.03¢	3.15¢	$78.75	-$247.25	-75.8%	2027-01-01
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes	Held	2,051.6066	52.54¢	40.5¢	$830.90	-$255.81	-22.9%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	1,670.0701	63.02¢	70.5¢	$1.2K	-$256.20	+11.9%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes	Held	1,363.0093	23.34¢	4.65¢	$63.38	-$256.21	-80.1%	2027-01-05
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	591.5388	95.94¢	99.45¢	$588.29	-$260.44	+3.7%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	523.1802	72.78¢	22.5¢	$117.72	-$263.07	-69.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	12,260.9956	4.25¢	1.05¢	$128.74	-$266.44	-75.3%	2026-12-09
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? Yes	Held	5,139.3744	11.62¢	4.9¢	$251.83	-$283.43	-57.9%	2026-10-18
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? Yes	Held	4,706.2515	11.08¢	4.2¢	$197.66	-$286.08	-62.1%	2026-10-25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026? Yes	Held	5,222.7681	9.49¢	3.25¢	$169.74	-$289.82	-65.8%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1,341.5702	99.43¢	98.8¢	$1.3K	-$331.20	-0.6%	2028-01-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Yes	Held	3,400.8877	11¢	0.7¢	$23.81	-$353.70	-93.6%	2026-10-26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No	Held	2,399.1931	32.32¢	17.5¢	$419.86	-$355.69	-45.9%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Yes	Held	2,419.5992	10.28¢	2.5¢	$60.49	-$386.19	-75.7%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	1,347.5942	70.07¢	33.5¢	$451.44	-$395.28	-52.2%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	232.053	95.81¢	94.3¢	$218.83	-$395.72	-1.6%	2028-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes	Held	1,665.2836	60.34¢	36.05¢	$600.33	-$404.58	-40.3%	—
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	12,594.6541	3.24¢	0.35¢	$44.08	-$407.19	-89.2%	2026-12-09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,739.8074	32.76¢	13.5¢	$369.87	-$527.74	-58.8%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,497.4395	90.79¢	69.5¢	$1.7K	-$531.94	-23.5%	2027-01-01
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	2,646.1342	2.77¢	1.2¢	$31.75	-$548.73	-56.8%	2026-09-14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	6,133.8961	7.15¢	0.55¢	$33.74	-$575.66	-92.3%	2026-10-29
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Held	2,244.3116	54.97¢	26¢	$583.52	-$650.29	-52.7%	2028-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,200	66.81¢	36.5¢	$803.00	-$667.00	-45.4%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	4,549.6968	35.49¢	20.5¢	$932.69	-$682.40	-42.3%	2026-11-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? No	Held	1,990.5105	51.16¢	25.5¢	$507.58	-$737.37	-50.2%	2026-11-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	699.985	98.22¢	99.35¢	$695.44	-$862.31	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes	Held	14,552.951	26.47¢	18.5¢	$2.7K	-$1.0K	-30.1%	2027-01-01
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No	Held	2,369.2694	92.88¢	97.2¢	$2.3K	-$1.0K	+4.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	267.9364	98.43¢	98.65¢	$264.32	-$1.2K	+0.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	8,460.1062	17.88¢	2.95¢	$249.57	-$1.3K	-83.5%	2026-12-09
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	14,155.6338	25.78¢	10.5¢	$1.5K	-$2.2K	-59.3%	2026-12-09
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,759.7859	80.42¢	81.5¢	$2.2K	-$2.5K	+1.3%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	250,110	50¢	17.95¢	$44.9K	-$80.2K	-64.1%	2028-11-08
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	268,000	50¢	11.5¢	$30.8K	-$103.2K	-77.0%	2028-01-01

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