Wallet ledger

0x564f…7026

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

388

Realized PnL

$10.4K

Win rate

59%

Realized edge

+0.016

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.016 across 388 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.00, +0.04]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (468 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No	Open	2,137	45¢	$547	+56%	2026-12-31
Will Mirana Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026? Yes	Open	371	30¢	$251	+225%	1970-01-01
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	537	10¢	$233	+418%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,738	11¢	$215	+116%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	397	29¢	$196	+172%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	335	35¢	$192	+165%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	277	16¢	$191	+422%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	357	16¢	$174	+305%	2026-08-31
Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026? No	Open	194	10¢	$172	+918%	1970-01-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	580	66¢	$163	+43%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	407	20¢	$142	+177%	2026-08-25
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	962	54¢	$141	+27%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	472	52¢	$128	+53%	2026-08-31
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	703	42¢	$125	+43%	2026-12-31
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	356	48¢	$124	+73%	2026-08-31
Will Mamdani say "Trump" or "President" during his announcement? No	Open	521	38¢	$123	+61%	2026-08-31
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes	Open	350	52¢	$110	+60%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	348	70¢	$92	+38%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	573	76¢	$89	+20%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,446	14¢	$89	+44%	2026-12-31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	3,638	2¢	$88	+147%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,008	52¢	$88	+17%	2026-10-31
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	275	27¢	$85	+113%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	290	18¢	$83	+161%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	339	13¢	$83	+182%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	153	3¢	$81	+1534%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	169	30¢	$80	+156%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	380	16¢	$79	+133%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	291	12¢	$77	+224%	2026-09-30
Will "Don't Look Down" - Rod Wave first week album sales be between 145k and 165k? No	Open	226	60¢	$77	+56%	2026-09-04
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	306	52¢	$77	+48%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	307	17¢	$72	+136%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	264	43¢	$69	+61%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	283	43¢	$66	+54%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	91	17¢	$66	+436%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	908	63¢	$62	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	201	15¢	$61	+205%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	345	16¢	$60	+108%	2026-09-30
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? No	Open	594	89¢	$60	+11%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	583	13¢	$59	+77%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	358	13¢	$59	+124%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	227	7¢	$59	+356%	2026-09-30
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	635	82¢	$54	+10%	2026-08-24
Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be less than 20k? Yes	Open	75	1¢	$53	+7056%	2026-08-28
Will Mamdani say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during his announcement? No	Open	196	37¢	$52	+71%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	264	18¢	$52	+108%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	73	11¢	$51	+605%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	229	13¢	$51	+170%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	183	65¢	$49	+41%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,316	11¢	$48	+33%	2026-12-31
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	118	30¢	$46	+132%	2026-08-28
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	839	8¢	$45	+65%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	153	59¢	$45	+50%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	541	89¢	$44	+9%	2026-08-31
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	173	7¢	$42	+346%	2026-08-28
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	195	19¢	$41	+110%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	467	24¢	$41	+37%	2026-09-30
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? Yes	Open	110	56¢	$41	+67%	2026-08-28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	322	80¢	$41	+16%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	232	16¢	$40	+108%	2026-10-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No	Open	651	4¢	$39	+152%	1970-01-01
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	198	80¢	$39	+24%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? No	Open	614	9¢	$39	+69%	2026-10-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	454	1¢	$38	+611%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	155	59¢	$37	+41%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	202	24¢	$37	+75%	2026-10-31
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	406	88¢	$36	+10%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	358	13¢	$36	+76%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	165	46¢	$35	+46%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	457	10¢	$34	+75%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	97	35¢	$33	+97%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	47	20¢	$32	+342%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	70	3¢	$32	+1431%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	75	7¢	$30	+539%	2026-08-31
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	263	45¢	$30	+25%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	605	6¢	$29	+76%	2026-12-31
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	166	25¢	$29	+70%	2026-08-25
Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 120k and 140k? No	Open	140	52¢	$29	+39%	2026-08-28
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,518	12¢	$28	+16%	2026-12-31
Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 100k and 120k? Yes	Open	80	24¢	$28	+144%	2026-08-28
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	127	9¢	$27	+248%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	387	22¢	$27	+31%	2026-09-30
Will "Don't Look Down" - Rod Wave first week album sales be between 85k and 105k? No	Open	99	64¢	$27	+43%	2026-09-04
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	204	19¢	$27	+68%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	307	21¢	$26	+41%	2026-09-30
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	130	12¢	$26	+173%	2026-08-25
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? Yes	Open	636	17¢	$26	+24%	2026-11-01
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	621	88¢	$26	+5%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	162	20¢	$25	+79%	2026-08-31
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No	Open	725	85¢	$25	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	192	31¢	$25	+41%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? No	Open	478	82¢	$24	+6%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	77	1¢	$23	+2968%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	66	26¢	$23	+137%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $325,000 and $330,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	625	3¢	$23	+112%	2026-09-30
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? No	Open	200	72¢	$23	+16%	2027-03-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	291	8¢	$22	+98%	2026-12-31
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	53	37¢	$22	+115%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	76	15¢	$20	+179%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	228	9¢	$20	+96%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	194	19¢	$19	+53%	2026-10-31
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? No	Open	180	34¢	$19	+31%	2027-01-01
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? No	Open	334	86¢	$18	+6%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	59	18¢	$18	+173%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	124	81¢	$18	+18%	2026-08-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,267	1¢	$18	+201%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	163	14¢	$18	+80%	2026-08-31
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? No	Open	116	20¢	$16	+69%	2026-08-28
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	171	25¢	$16	+37%	2026-10-31
Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be between 20k and 25k? No	Open	49	60¢	$16	+54%	2026-08-28
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	413	15¢	$16	+27%	2026-09-30
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	111	31¢	$16	+47%	2026-08-28
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	200	17¢	$15	+44%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	431	2¢	$15	+148%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	486	12¢	$14	+24%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	54	68¢	$13	+37%	2026-09-01
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	197	27¢	$13	+25%	2026-08-28
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	185	20¢	$13	+34%	2026-10-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	192	5¢	$13	+131%	2026-09-30
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	500	3¢	$12	+83%	2026-09-30
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	195	16¢	$12	+41%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	167	13¢	$12	+58%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	109	55¢	$12	+20%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	163	19¢	$12	+39%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	500	2¢	$12	+118%	2026-09-30
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	47	23¢	$11	+104%	2026-08-25
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	53	55¢	$11	+39%	2026-10-01
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	154	38¢	$11	+19%	2026-09-30
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	140	92¢	$11	+8%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	10¢	$11	+540%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	80	73¢	$10	+18%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	26	27¢	$10	+148%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	150	16¢	$10	+43%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	229	12¢	$10	+35%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	194	10¢	$10	+50%	2026-09-30
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? No	Open	33	31¢	$10	+94%	2026-08-28
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	39	5¢	$10	+490%	2026-09-30
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	99	25¢	$9	+38%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	53	18¢	$9	+101%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	110	21¢	$9	+39%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	151	55¢	$9	+11%	2026-10-31
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	100	20¢	$9	+45%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	353	8¢	$8	+28%	2026-09-30
Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	120	3¢	$8	+199%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	162	7¢	$8	+67%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	133	11¢	$8	+55%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	851	13¢	$8	+7%	2026-12-31
Will it rain in Miami, FL on August 23? No	Open	40	25¢	$8	+78%	2026-08-24
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	155	19¢	$8	+26%	2026-08-25
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	198	31¢	$8	+12%	2026-08-28
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	296	1¢	$7	+287%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	80	59¢	$7	+15%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,041	3¢	$7	+20%	2026-08-31
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	276	2¢	$7	+121%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes	Open	50	81¢	$7	+17%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	20	54¢	$7	+62%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	87	78¢	$7	+10%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	50¢	$6	+66%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,409	0¢	$6	+225%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	212	7¢	$6	+41%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	93	29¢	$6	+23%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	301	91¢	$6	+2%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	128	7¢	$6	+65%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026? Yes	Open	814	0¢	$6	+237%	2026-08-27
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	7	16¢	$6	+504%	2026-08-25
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	135	2¢	$6	+217%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? No	Open	13	56¢	$6	+77%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	28	5¢	$6	+415%	2026-09-30
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	103	36¢	$6	+15%	2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? No	Open	108	48¢	$5	+10%	2026-12-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	354	6¢	$5	+25%	2026-12-31
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	148	1¢	$5	+486%	2026-09-30
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	40	14¢	$5	+89%	2026-09-01
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	198	24¢	$5	+10%	2026-08-28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	979	0¢	$5	+114%	2026-08-25
Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Open	51	41¢	$5	+22%	2026-08-27
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	145	0¢	$4	+1500%	2026-09-30
Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? No	Open	88	94¢	$4	+5%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	39	8¢	$4	+131%	2026-10-31
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	32	34¢	$4	+37%	2026-09-01
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	170	2¢	$4	+99%	2026-08-25
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	23	80¢	$4	+21%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	15	13¢	$4	+196%	2026-10-31
Will Tencent have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? No	Open	56	91¢	$4	+7%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	405	7¢	$4	+13%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	23	15¢	$3	+100%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	24	23¢	$3	+62%	2026-09-30
Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on August 23? No	Open	60	92¢	$3	+6%	2026-08-24
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	694	1¢	$3	+38%	2026-08-31
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	32	9¢	$3	+115%	2026-08-28
Will Claude go down 14+ times in August? Yes	Open	140	2¢	$3	+110%	2026-08-31
Will "Don't Look Down" - Rod Wave first week album sales be between 125k and 145k? Yes	Open	20	17¢	$3	+91%	2026-09-04
Will "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	20	57¢	$3	+26%	2026-08-30
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	24	6¢	$3	+208%	2026-09-30
Will "Wildchild" - Alex Warren first week album sales be between 50k and 70k? Yes	Open	15	10¢	$3	+185%	2026-09-04
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of August 24 2026? No	Open	35	65¢	$3	+12%	2026-08-28
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	44	19¢	$2	+28%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	298	5¢	$2	+17%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	100	17¢	$2	+13%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	159	4¢	$2	+35%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	305	60¢	$2	+1%	2026-10-31
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	170	0¢	$2	+400%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	20	6¢	$2	+167%	2026-09-30
Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on August 23? No	Open	20	89¢	$2	+11%	2026-08-24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	135	3¢	$2	+48%	2026-10-31
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	147	1¢	$2	+135%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	705	0¢	$2	+66%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	120	13¢	$2	+12%	2026-12-31
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	70	34¢	$2	+7%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	190	1¢	$2	+71%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	58	4¢	$1	+55%	2026-10-31
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of August 24 2026? No	Open	50	49¢	$1	+5%	2026-08-28
Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	144	1¢	$1	+160%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	271	1¢	$1	+74%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	36	5¢	$1	+59%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	179	11¢	$1	+5%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes	Open	21	50¢	$1	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	0¢	$1	+1366%	2026-09-30
Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on August 23? No	Open	20	91¢	$1	+4%	2026-08-24
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	195	0¢	$1	+170%	2026-08-31
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	26	17¢	$1	+18%	2026-10-31
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	55	16¢	$1	+9%	2026-08-28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	150	17¢	$1	+3%	2026-12-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026? Yes	Open	553	2¢	$1	+7%	2026-08-28
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	97	1¢	$1	+125%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	62	1¢	$0	+114%	2026-09-30
Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	11	91¢	$0	+5%	2026-09-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	130	1¢	$0	+27%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	35	7¢	$0	+14%	2026-10-31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	223	2¢	$0	+10%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	62	14¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	2¢	$0	+190%	2026-09-30
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $560 Week of August 24 2026? No	Open	50	27¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-28
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	5	6¢	$0	+79%	2026-09-01
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	11	0¢	$0	+1025%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	43	4¢	$0	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	413	0¢	$0	+25%	2026-08-31
Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	12	1¢	$0	+220%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	545	0¢	$0	+6%	2026-09-01
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	113	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-08-31
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? No	Open	3	95¢	$0	+3%	2026-10-31
Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	186	0¢	$0	+17%	2026-09-30
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	30	0¢	$0	+125%	2026-08-31
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-25
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-25
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-25
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? No	Open	80	88¢	$0	0%	2026-12-18
Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	165	7¢	$0	0%	2026-10-31
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? No	Open	5	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-01
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	91	15¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	60	2¢	-$0	-2%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	6	89¢	-$0	-1%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	119	4¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	10	7¢	-$0	-9%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	47	5¢	-$0	-4%	2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Open	83	87¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will MiniMax have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	781	0¢	-$0	-5%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	581	1¢	-$0	-5%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	238	14¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-01
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	60	4¢	-$0	-8%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	686	1¢	-$0	-5%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in NYC be between $582,000 and $609,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	35	2¢	-$0	-38%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	29	5¢	-$0	-20%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	29	2¢	-$0	-50%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	16	2¢	-$0	-98%	2026-08-25
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	138	1¢	-$0	-24%	2026-08-31
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	113	58¢	-$0	-1%	2026-11-01
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	743	0¢	-$0	-50%	2026-08-31
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	43	30¢	-$0	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	20	32¢	-$0	-6%	2026-09-01
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? No	Open	25	99¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-01
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be 70k or more? No	Open	19	99¢	-$1	-3%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	85	15¢	-$1	-5%	2026-10-31
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? No	Open	25	99¢	-$1	-3%	2026-09-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	36	6¢	-$1	-38%	2026-09-30
Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	231	1¢	-$1	-42%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	2,046	0¢	-$1	-22%	2026-08-31
Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	83	2¢	-$1	-66%	2026-08-31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	2,227	1¢	-$1	-5%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	16	7¢	-$1	-87%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	62	34¢	-$1	-5%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	125	2¢	-$1	-37%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	37¢	-$1	-29%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	938	0¢	-$1	-70%	2026-08-31
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $570 Week of August 24 2026? No	Open	70	54¢	-$1	-3%	2026-08-28
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No	Open	20	89¢	-$1	-7%	2027-01-01
Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	455	0¢	-$1	-84%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	171	16¢	-$1	-5%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	130	23¢	-$1	-4%	2026-10-31
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	21	10¢	-$1	-62%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	1,128	1¢	-$1	-15%	2026-08-26
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	17¢	-$1	-88%	2026-09-30
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	494	1¢	-$2	-34%	2026-08-31
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	818	1¢	-$2	-28%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	21	10¢	-$2	-78%	2026-08-28
Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	273	1¢	-$2	-58%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	118	2¢	-$2	-75%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	45	10¢	-$2	-42%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	171	2¢	-$2	-71%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	60	28¢	-$2	-13%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	75	4¢	-$2	-74%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	2,104	0¢	-$2	-36%	2026-08-31
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	30	9¢	-$2	-87%	2026-09-30
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,611	1¢	-$2	-30%	2026-08-31
Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	217	6¢	-$2	-19%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	1¢	-$3	-50%	2026-08-31
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	100	19¢	-$3	-13%	2026-08-25
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	33¢	-$3	-80%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,201,000 and $1,216,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	50	6¢	-$3	-88%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	81	15¢	-$3	-21%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	243	20¢	-$3	-6%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,017,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	231	5¢	-$3	-22%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	150	12¢	-$3	-17%	2026-08-31
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	50	6¢	-$3	-99%	2026-08-31
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	77	12¢	-$3	-34%	2026-08-28
Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	60	6¢	-$3	-97%	2026-09-30
Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026? Yes	Open	5	69¢	-$3	-97%	1970-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	882	2¢	-$3	-20%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $555,000 and $582,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	39	9¢	-$3	-96%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	40	9¢	-$4	-98%	2026-09-30
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	390	56¢	-$4	-2%	2026-10-01
Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	2,000	1¢	-$4	-40%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	495	15¢	-$4	-5%	2026-09-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,611	1¢	-$4	-52%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	470	2¢	-$4	-57%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	91	10¢	-$4	-47%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	706	3¢	-$5	-21%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	89	6¢	-$5	-88%	2026-09-30
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	44	14¢	-$5	-81%	2026-08-25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,730	3¢	-$5	-9%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	48	13¢	-$5	-80%	2026-08-31
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	558	3¢	-$5	-26%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	398	7¢	-$5	-19%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Open	604	2¢	-$5	-57%	2026-12-31
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes	Open	20	82¢	-$5	-32%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	140	11¢	-$5	-35%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	142	14¢	-$5	-27%	2026-10-31
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	674	1¢	-$6	-67%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No	Open	499	86¢	-$6	-1%	1970-01-01
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes	Open	20	47¢	-$6	-63%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	272	11¢	-$6	-19%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	818	18¢	-$6	-4%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	353	14¢	-$6	-12%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	169	90¢	-$6	-4%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	500	2¢	-$6	-63%	2026-09-30
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	2¢	-$7	-43%	2026-09-30
Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be between 25k and 30k? Yes	Open	95	18¢	-$7	-41%	2026-08-28
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	139	16¢	-$7	-31%	2026-08-31
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	45	77¢	-$7	-21%	2026-09-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,264,000 and $1,284,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	153	5¢	-$7	-90%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	250	7¢	-$7	-42%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	150	9¢	-$7	-55%	2026-09-30
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	135	60¢	-$8	-9%	2026-10-01
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	227	17¢	-$8	-20%	2026-08-28
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	165	7¢	-$8	-69%	2026-10-31
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Open	90	34¢	-$8	-26%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	261	10¢	-$8	-33%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	249	4¢	-$8	-81%	2026-08-31
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,644	2¢	-$9	-30%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	188	5¢	-$9	-99%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $542,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	114	11¢	-$10	-79%	2026-09-30
Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	20	50¢	-$10	-99%	2026-09-30
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	20	50¢	-$10	-99%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	207	14¢	-$10	-36%	2026-08-31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	3,090	0¢	-$11	-87%	2026-08-31
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	197	18¢	-$11	-29%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	107	15¢	-$11	-68%	2026-09-30
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	80	91¢	-$11	-15%	2026-09-01
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by December 31? No	Open	280	50¢	-$11	-8%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	145	79¢	-$12	-10%	2027-01-01
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	117	12¢	-$12	-87%	2026-08-25
Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	959	2¢	-$12	-61%	2026-08-31
Benedict Wong as Wong? No	Open	177	37¢	-$13	-20%	2026-12-18
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	836	3¢	-$13	-53%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	481	13¢	-$14	-21%	2026-08-31
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	1,848	1¢	-$14	-84%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,169,000 and $1,185,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	113	16¢	-$15	-83%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	403	4¢	-$15	-92%	2026-08-31
Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026? No	Open	167	61¢	-$16	-16%	2026-09-01
Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be between 30k and 35k? Yes	Open	121	16¢	-$16	-83%	2026-08-28
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	773	4¢	-$17	-57%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	151	14¢	-$17	-78%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	299	8¢	-$17	-74%	2026-08-31
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	127	15¢	-$17	-90%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,153,000 and $1,169,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	288	10¢	-$17	-60%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	477	14¢	-$18	-27%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,532	3¢	-$18	-40%	2026-08-31
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes	Open	1,406	9¢	-$18	-15%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	400	6¢	-$18	-72%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	30	62¢	-$18	-100%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	461	6¢	-$19	-71%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	142	40¢	-$19	-34%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	208	13¢	-$20	-70%	2026-09-30
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? No	Open	284	53¢	-$20	-13%	2026-12-18
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	408	12¢	-$20	-39%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	180	12¢	-$20	-92%	2026-08-28
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	175	18¢	-$20	-65%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	204	24¢	-$20	-41%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	141	15¢	-$20	-95%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	235	13¢	-$21	-71%	2026-09-30
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 93 km/h or below in August? Yes	Open	43	53¢	-$21	-94%	2026-09-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	125	20¢	-$22	-86%	2026-08-31
Will Mamdani say "Health" during his announcement? No	Open	149	33¢	-$23	-47%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	226	13¢	-$24	-79%	2026-09-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	205	21¢	-$24	-55%	2026-09-30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes	Open	301	9¢	-$24	-93%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	258	17¢	-$24	-56%	2026-09-30
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	166	15¢	-$25	-100%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,488	11¢	-$25	-16%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,861	1¢	-$25	-96%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	2,234	3¢	-$26	-42%	2026-08-31
Will it rain in Boston, MA on August 23? No	Open	61	46¢	-$26	-92%	2026-08-24
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	250	17¢	-$26	-62%	2026-08-31
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	3,445	1¢	-$26	-72%	2026-08-31
Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	550	6¢	-$27	-85%	2026-09-01
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes	Open	297	9¢	-$27	-99%	2026-08-24
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes	Open	100	61¢	-$27	-44%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? No	Open	569	41¢	-$29	-12%	2026-09-30
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? Yes	Open	445	21¢	-$30	-32%	2026-12-31
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	684	7¢	-$31	-66%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	163	27¢	-$31	-72%	2026-08-31
Will Morgan Wallen's highest daily YouTube views be between 5M and 5.5M? Yes	Open	109	31¢	-$32	-94%	2026-08-23
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	340	11¢	-$34	-92%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes	Open	979	42¢	-$36	-9%	1970-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? No	Open	393	26¢	-$37	-37%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	358	20¢	-$37	-53%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	700	11¢	-$38	-50%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,334	12¢	-$41	-27%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	384	13¢	-$42	-87%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	202	22¢	-$44	-97%	2026-08-31
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	321	15¢	-$44	-89%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	335	19¢	-$46	-73%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	3,953	6¢	-$47	-21%	2026-08-31
Will valve announce Arjun as the new hero at The International 2026? Yes	Open	242	20¢	-$48	-100%	1970-01-01
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	358	16¢	-$48	-86%	2026-08-25
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	847	8¢	-$51	-72%	2026-11-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	825	11¢	-$52	-58%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	246	27¢	-$52	-79%	2026-09-30
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	3,005	20¢	-$55	-9%	2026-10-01
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	195	42¢	-$55	-67%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	496	17¢	-$56	-68%	2026-08-31
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	360	23¢	-$60	-72%	2026-09-30
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes	Open	558	13¢	-$62	-86%	2026-09-01
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	496	15¢	-$62	-84%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	354	18¢	-$63	-100%	2026-08-25
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	513	15¢	-$64	-85%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	806	11¢	-$65	-73%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	603	14¢	-$75	-91%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	853	16¢	-$79	-57%	2026-08-31
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	955	19¢	-$88	-48%	2026-08-31
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	616	15¢	-$88	-93%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,183	10¢	-$91	-77%	2026-08-31
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? Yes	Open	159	64¢	-$92	-91%	2026-08-28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	305	37¢	-$105	-93%	2026-08-31
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,031	19¢	-$109	-55%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	234	49¢	-$114	-99%	2026-08-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	377	36¢	-$119	-87%	2026-08-31
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	656	22¢	-$122	-84%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	410	49¢	-$140	-69%	2026-08-31
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30? Yes	Open	1,357	19¢	-$179	-69%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,573	14¢	-$196	-87%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,541	14¢	-$202	-97%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	397	53¢	-$202	-95%	2026-08-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	5,055	5¢	-$212	-92%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,818	19¢	-$259	-76%	2026-08-31
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	917	80¢	-$659	-90%	2026-08-24
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	2,011	52¢	-$938	-89%	2026-08-31

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →