Wallet positions

0x564f…7026

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

388

Realized PnL

$10.4K

Win rate

59.3%

Realized edge

+1.6 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +1.6 pp across 388 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.4, +3.7], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

436 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:22:09 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,802.2472	13.46¢	69.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+414.7%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,725.49	20.97¢	69.5¢	$1.2K	$837.25	+231.3%	2027-01-01
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? Yes	Held	2,961.69	18.31¢	41.5¢	$1.2K	$711.31	+126.5%	2027-04-16
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No	Held	2,322.3678	44.34¢	39¢	$905.72	$531.04	-12.0%	2027-01-01
Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $8 in 2026? No	Held	672.24	28.31¢	77.5¢	$520.99	$409.18	+173.7%	2027-01-01
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,225.66	44.14¢	76.5¢	$937.63	$408.32	+73.3%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	338.39	14.35¢	67¢	$226.72	$365.47	+366.7%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,009.84	29.29¢	59.95¢	$605.40	$309.61	+104.7%	2027-01-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes	Held	740.56	29.81¢	74.5¢	$551.72	$301.55	+149.8%	2026-11-01
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	477.6	9.79¢	71.3¢	$340.53	$293.74	+627.8%	2026-11-01
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? Yes	Held	444.96	17.52¢	71.15¢	$316.59	$285.15	+306.0%	2026-11-02
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	1,488.67	8.89¢	26.5¢	$394.50	$283.53	+197.9%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	365.58	11.05¢	0¢	$0.00	$274.28	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,284.53	20.94¢	0¢	$0.00	$239.35	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	640.17	41.07¢	79¢	$505.73	$230.36	+92.3%	2026-11-01
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30? Yes	Held	313.91	8.35¢	34.5¢	$108.30	$155.41	+312.8%	2026-12-02
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,207.56	12.28¢	24.1¢	$291.02	$145.95	+96.1%	2026-12-31
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	840.31	58.68¢	75.5¢	$634.43	$141.34	+28.7%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	361.4	52.41¢	89.85¢	$324.72	$135.30	+71.4%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	556.1	17.77¢	35¢	$194.63	$132.36	+96.9%	2027-01-11
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No	Held	323.37	68.62¢	89.15¢	$288.28	$131.86	+29.9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	852.81	13.41¢	21.5¢	$183.35	$126.21	+60.2%	2026-10-31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	353.5	5.99¢	41.5¢	$146.70	$125.49	+591.7%	2026-12-31
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026? No	Held	812.53	77.24¢	92.5¢	$751.59	$123.94	+19.7%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	67.41	43.25¢	88.5¢	$59.66	$115.83	+104.6%	2026-10-31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	4,934.1602	1.33¢	3.65¢	$180.10	$114.04	+172.7%	2026-12-31
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? No	Held	106.98	73.47¢	86¢	$92.00	$109.84	+17.0%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	201.73	24.29¢	76.5¢	$154.32	$105.31	+214.8%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	164.65	26.13¢	72.5¢	$119.37	$104.88	+177.4%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	62.1	34.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$100.68	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	47.95	55.99¢	56¢	$26.85	$90.81	0.0%	2026-10-31
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	358.7	67.66¢	92¢	$330.00	$87.29	+36.0%	2027-07-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	610.45	11.74¢	26¢	$158.72	$87.02	+121.4%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	464.05	69.87¢	88¢	$408.36	$84.13	+25.9%	2026-11-01
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	248.98	7.79¢	41.5¢	$103.33	$83.92	+432.4%	2026-10-31
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes	Held	349.9925	52.42¢	76¢	$265.99	$82.50	+45.0%	2027-01-01
Will NYC have more than 6.25 inches of precipitation in October? No	Held	201.04	76.5¢	92¢	$184.96	$75.84	+20.3%	2027-01-08
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? Yes	Held	782.43	22.04¢	31.5¢	$246.47	$73.98	+42.9%	2026-12-02
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	565	38.62¢	51.5¢	$290.98	$72.76	+33.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	303.8	5.78¢	18.5¢	$56.20	$70.63	+220.0%	2026-11-01
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	247.8	69.26¢	92.5¢	$229.22	$70.61	+33.5%	2026-12-31
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	290	21.22¢	45.5¢	$131.95	$70.39	+114.3%	2027-01-11
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? Yes	Held	252.13	38.27¢	14.9¢	$37.57	$65.92	-61.1%	2027-04-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	660.02	9¢	18.5¢	$122.10	$62.70	+105.6%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.25 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	369.24	26.85¢	42.5¢	$156.93	$57.78	+58.3%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	201.4	14.74¢	42.5¢	$85.59	$55.90	+188.2%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	762.701	7.5¢	14.1¢	$107.54	$50.33	+88.0%	2026-12-31
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? No	Held	253.68	67.56¢	86.5¢	$219.43	$48.04	+28.0%	2026-12-01
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31? No	Held	463.35	77.06¢	87.4¢	$404.97	$47.87	+13.4%	2027-01-11
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? Yes	Held	262.96	17.22¢	35¢	$92.04	$46.73	+103.2%	2027-01-01
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	220	53.09¢	73¢	$160.60	$43.80	+37.5%	2026-11-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	459.21	13.3¢	17.5¢	$80.36	$43.38	+31.5%	2026-10-31
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	223.58	68.99¢	88¢	$196.75	$42.48	+27.5%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	429.34	15.76¢	25.45¢	$109.27	$41.56	+61.4%	2026-11-01
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	27.56	55.47¢	95.75¢	$26.39	$41.52	+72.6%	2026-10-31
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No	Held	725	85.09¢	91¢	$659.75	$39.75	+6.9%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	229.01	12.49¢	29.35¢	$67.21	$38.59	+134.8%	2028-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	476.4	47.49¢	55.5¢	$264.40	$38.11	+16.8%	2027-01-01
Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	327	75.54¢	86.95¢	$284.33	$37.28	+15.1%	2026-10-08
Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	661.63	14.91¢	20.5¢	$135.63	$36.95	+37.4%	2027-06-30
Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	501.82	15.26¢	22.5¢	$112.91	$36.30	+47.4%	2026-11-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No	Held	162.54	9.77¢	31.9¢	$51.85	$35.96	+226.2%	2027-01-01
Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October? No	Held	260.4	72.69¢	86.5¢	$225.25	$35.95	+19.0%	2027-01-08
Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	80.4	16.99¢	61.5¢	$49.45	$35.78	+261.8%	2027-06-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	323.16	18.14¢	29¢	$93.72	$35.08	+59.8%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	500	5¢	12¢	$60.00	$35.00	+140.0%	2026-10-31
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	150.87	51.61¢	74¢	$111.64	$33.77	+43.4%	2027-06-30
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes	Held	198.29	73.37¢	90¢	$178.46	$32.96	+22.7%	2027-06-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	297.89	4.6¢	4.15¢	$12.36	$32.70	-9.9%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	336.85	44.44¢	54.15¢	$182.40	$32.01	+21.8%	2026-12-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	365.59	12.62¢	18.9¢	$69.10	$31.25	+49.7%	2027-01-11
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026? No	Held	177.303	86.17¢	94.45¢	$167.46	$31.23	+9.6%	2026-10-09
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	200	45¢	60.5¢	$121.00	$31.00	+34.4%	2027-07-01
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	241	80¢	92.5¢	$222.93	$30.13	+15.6%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	309.79	62.83¢	72.5¢	$224.60	$29.93	+15.4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	97.9	41.87¢	71.5¢	$70.00	$29.00	+70.7%	2026-11-01
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	218.04	34.05¢	47¢	$102.48	$28.23	+38.0%	2026-11-01
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	199.21	23.82¢	37.9¢	$75.50	$28.03	+59.1%	2026-12-01
Will Anthropic have the greatest valuation growth in September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	50.29	10¢	0¢	$0.00	$27.66	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	250.67	54.05¢	65¢	$162.94	$27.43	+20.2%	2026-12-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Held	40	78.92¢	80.1¢	$32.04	$26.21	+1.5%	2026-10-31
Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	277.63	77.08¢	86.5¢	$240.15	$26.14	+12.2%	2026-10-08
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	648.99	18.48¢	22.5¢	$146.02	$26.08	+21.7%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	77.74	44.12¢	77.5¢	$60.25	$25.94	+75.6%	2026-12-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	745.2805	4.12¢	7.55¢	$56.27	$25.50	+82.9%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? No	Held	478.01	82.12¢	83.6¢	$399.62	$24.92	+1.8%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	300	21.19¢	29.5¢	$88.50	$24.90	+39.2%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	141	32.42¢	49.5¢	$69.80	$24.08	+52.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	228.55	13.02¢	14.9¢	$34.05	$23.10	+14.4%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? No	Held	251.7	50¢	59¢	$148.50	$22.65	+18.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	478.36	9.93¢	14.65¢	$70.08	$22.56	+47.5%	2027-01-01
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? No	Held	120	76.66¢	95.4¢	$114.48	$22.48	+24.4%	2026-11-01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	330	30.75¢	37.5¢	$123.75	$22.25	+21.9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? No	Held	143.46	80.34¢	95.65¢	$137.22	$21.95	+19.0%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	35	7¢	66.5¢	$23.27	$20.82	+850.0%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	138.58	49.24¢	63.5¢	$88.00	$19.75	+28.9%	2026-12-01
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	81.01	65.24¢	89.5¢	$72.50	$19.65	+37.2%	2027-06-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	145.4	58.34¢	71.5¢	$103.96	$19.13	+22.5%	2027-01-01
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	40.93	12.99¢	59.5¢	$24.35	$19.03	+357.7%	2026-11-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	706.1	0.71¢	3.4¢	$24.01	$18.95	+374.5%	2026-12-01
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	243.45	0.2¢	7.9¢	$19.23	$18.75	+3850.0%	2026-11-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	59.99	45.99¢	77¢	$46.19	$18.60	+67.4%	2026-11-01
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? No	Held	128.59	81.44¢	95.8¢	$123.19	$18.46	+17.6%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	76.1	14.93¢	39.1¢	$29.76	$18.39	+161.8%	2027-01-01
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026? No	Held	278.2	75.99¢	82.5¢	$229.51	$18.08	+8.6%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	167.09	48.18¢	59¢	$98.58	$17.86	+22.4%	2026-12-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	10,778.8156	0.49¢	0.65¢	$70.06	$16.48	+30.7%	2026-11-01
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	145.82	50.34¢	76.5¢	$111.55	$16.43	+52.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	323.72	10.84¢	15.85¢	$51.31	$16.19	+46.1%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	397.67	13.47¢	17.5¢	$69.59	$16.00	+29.9%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? No	Held	244	90.9¢	97.3¢	$237.41	$15.59	+7.0%	2026-10-13
Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? No	Held	154.54	79.83¢	89.5¢	$138.31	$14.94	+12.1%	2026-11-01
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? Yes	Held	564.59	24.42¢	27¢	$152.44	$14.54	+10.5%	2026-12-02
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	80	50.24¢	67.5¢	$54.00	$13.80	+34.3%	2026-12-01
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? Yes	Held	321.06	26.32¢	30.5¢	$97.92	$13.42	+15.9%	2026-10-26
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? OpenAI	Held	79	62.49¢	79¢	$62.41	$13.04	+26.4%	2028-01-01
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	171.19	16.88¢	24.5¢	$41.94	$13.04	+45.1%	2027-01-11
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026? Yes	Held	196.78	6.99¢	13.5¢	$26.57	$12.79	+92.9%	2026-10-21
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	706.27	18.32¢	13.9¢	$98.17	$12.61	-24.1%	2026-10-31
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	300	80.25¢	86.5¢	$259.50	$12.57	+7.8%	2026-11-30
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	55.75	35.28¢	57.5¢	$32.06	$12.39	+63.0%	2026-12-01
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? Yes	Held	31	16.64¢	56¢	$17.36	$12.20	+236.4%	2026-10-13
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	1,999.99	0.5¢	1.1¢	$22.00	$12.00	+120.0%	2026-10-31
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? No	Held	235.37	31.69¢	36.5¢	$85.91	$11.30	+15.2%	2026-10-16
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	60.93	22.21¢	38.7¢	$23.58	$10.04	+74.2%	2026-11-01
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	333.86	50.99¢	54¢	$180.28	$10.02	+5.9%	2026-11-30
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	95	30¢	40.5¢	$38.48	$9.97	+35.0%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	330.01	18.48¢	21.5¢	$70.95	$9.96	+16.3%	2026-11-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	162.32	7.41¢	12.75¢	$20.70	$8.66	+71.9%	2027-01-01
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	170.77	16.46¢	21.5¢	$36.72	$8.59	+30.6%	2026-11-01
Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	110	71.27¢	79¢	$86.90	$8.50	+10.8%	2026-10-08
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	62	45¢	58.5¢	$36.27	$8.37	+30.0%	2027-01-01
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	194.48	18.59¢	22.5¢	$43.76	$7.59	+21.0%	2026-10-31
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	88.6	12.88¢	21¢	$18.61	$7.19	+63.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	205.61	75.53¢	79¢	$162.43	$7.12	+4.6%	2027-01-01
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes	Held	40	50¢	67.5¢	$27.00	$7.00	+35.0%	2027-06-30
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	39	11.99¢	29¢	$11.31	$6.63	+141.7%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	167.1	12.62¢	16.5¢	$27.57	$6.48	+30.7%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	80.27	44.58¢	52.65¢	$42.26	$6.48	+18.1%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	135.46	1.94¢	6.7¢	$9.08	$6.45	+245.2%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	80	14¢	22¢	$17.60	$6.40	+57.1%	2026-12-01
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? No	Held	49.97	86.69¢	98.4¢	$49.17	$5.85	+13.5%	2026-11-01
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 21, 2026? Yes	Held	207	6.13¢	8.9¢	$18.42	$5.73	+45.2%	2026-10-21
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? Yes	Held	20	25¢	53.5¢	$10.70	$5.70	+114.0%	2026-10-09
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	540.24	10.82¢	11.85¢	$64.02	$5.53	+9.5%	2026-11-01
Will xAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? No	Held	40	87¢	99.8¢	$39.92	$5.12	+14.7%	2026-10-13
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	57.1	16.18¢	25¢	$14.28	$5.03	+54.4%	2026-12-01
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? No	Held	335.08	58.99¢	60.5¢	$202.72	$5.03	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft? Yes	Held	52.5	32.99¢	42.5¢	$22.31	$4.99	+28.8%	2027-01-02
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes	Held	58.62	43.99¢	52.5¢	$30.78	$4.98	+19.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	163	12.99¢	16¢	$26.08	$4.89	+23.1%	2026-12-01
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? No	Held	40	84.15¢	96.25¢	$38.50	$4.84	+14.4%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	77.07	60.24¢	66.5¢	$51.25	$4.82	+10.4%	2026-12-01
Will there be fewer than 20 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? Yes	Held	106.25	9.26¢	0.45¢	$0.48	$4.74	-95.1%	2027-03-31
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	100	8.15¢	12.75¢	$12.75	$4.59	+56.3%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	90.8326	5¢	10.05¢	$9.13	$4.59	+101.0%	2026-12-01
Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? No	Held	123.8	82.33¢	86¢	$106.47	$4.54	+4.5%	2027-01-08
Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	20.1	24.99¢	47¢	$9.45	$4.42	+88.0%	2026-10-08
Google announces a training pause by October 31? No	Held	20	73¢	94.5¢	$18.90	$4.30	+29.5%	2026-11-01
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 14, 2026? Yes	Held	184.99	9.26¢	11.55¢	$21.37	$4.23	+24.7%	2026-10-14
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	119.98	13¢	16.5¢	$19.80	$4.20	+26.9%	2027-01-01
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	59.99	17.99¢	25¢	$15.00	$4.20	+38.9%	2026-11-01
Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	20.5	30¢	49.5¢	$10.15	$4.00	+65.0%	2026-10-08
Will KlingAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	235.12	1.4¢	3.1¢	$7.29	$3.99	+120.8%	2026-10-31
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Held	56.8	8.79¢	15.65¢	$8.89	$3.89	+77.8%	2026-11-01
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	436.49	1.1¢	1.95¢	$8.51	$3.68	+76.2%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	21	27.99¢	45¢	$9.45	$3.57	+60.7%	2026-12-01
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	164.67	2.23¢	4.4¢	$7.25	$3.56	+96.7%	2026-10-31
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October? No	Held	40	56¢	64.5¢	$25.80	$3.40	+15.2%	2026-11-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	110	20.77¢	23.85¢	$26.23	$3.38	+14.8%	2026-12-01
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	35.1	11.85¢	21.45¢	$7.53	$3.37	+80.9%	2026-10-31
Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	20	51¢	67.5¢	$13.50	$3.30	+32.4%	2026-10-08
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	77.2	89.89¢	94¢	$72.57	$3.17	+4.6%	2027-07-01
Will 55% or more of Cotton acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	40	40.49¢	47.5¢	$19.00	$2.80	+17.3%	2026-10-08
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	20	18.6¢	31.9¢	$6.38	$2.66	+71.5%	2026-11-01
Will 55% or more of Cattle inventory be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	20	36¢	49¢	$9.80	$2.60	+36.1%	2026-10-08
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? No	Held	80	88¢	91¢	$72.80	$2.40	+3.4%	2027-07-01
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	20	67¢	79¢	$15.80	$2.40	+17.9%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	132.86	6.16¢	7.85¢	$10.43	$2.24	+27.3%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	23.14	15¢	24.5¢	$5.67	$2.20	+63.3%	2026-10-31
Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	110.1	92.79¢	94.65¢	$104.21	$2.04	+2.0%	2026-10-08
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	20	8¢	17.5¢	$3.50	$1.90	+118.8%	2026-12-01
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	695.75	2.69¢	2.95¢	$20.52	$1.81	+9.6%	2026-11-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes	Held	37.4	51.99¢	56.5¢	$21.13	$1.68	+8.7%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	244.83	67.32¢	68¢	$166.48	$1.65	+1.0%	2026-12-01
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 8, 2026? Yes	Held	40	7¢	11.1¢	$4.44	$1.64	+58.6%	2026-10-08
Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	23.88	9.2¢	16¢	$3.82	$1.62	+73.7%	2027-06-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on October 31, 2026? No	Held	20	86.8¢	94.8¢	$18.96	$1.60	+9.2%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $397,000 and $407,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	34	14.39¢	18.6¢	$6.32	$1.43	+29.2%	2027-01-11
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 7, 2026? Yes	Held	14.4	0.67¢	10.35¢	$1.49	$1.39	+1430.6%	2026-10-07
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	167.6494	2.5¢	3.25¢	$5.45	$1.26	+30.0%	2026-10-31
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No	Held	20	89¢	94.45¢	$18.89	$1.09	+6.1%	2027-01-01
Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	11.61	3¢	9.85¢	$1.14	$0.80	+228.3%	2026-10-31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? No	Held	5.62	62.99¢	72.5¢	$4.07	$0.53	+15.1%	2027-01-01
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	8.2	10¢	16¢	$1.31	$0.49	+60.0%	2026-12-01
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026? No	Held	9.6	16.99¢	22¢	$2.11	$0.48	+29.4%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	29	4.99¢	5.95¢	$1.73	$0.28	+19.0%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? Yes	Held	251.87	10.65¢	10.5¢	$26.45	$0.25	-1.5%	2026-10-11
Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $5 in 2026? No	Held	40	72¢	72.5¢	$29.00	$0.20	+0.7%	2027-01-01
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? Yes	Held	75.51	50.86¢	51¢	$38.51	$0.11	+0.3%	2027-04-16
Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	228.62	0.48¢	0.5¢	$1.14	$0.03	+2.8%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	0.45	14¢	15.5¢	$0.07	<$0.01	+10.6%	2027-01-11
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	80	38¢	38¢	$30.40	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-01
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	11	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.02	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? Yes	Held	3.76	35.99¢	35¢	$1.32	-$0.04	-2.8%	—
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	19.84	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.06	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	12.15	0.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.06	-99.9%	2026-10-01
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.14	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	38	13.94¢	13.5¢	$5.13	-$0.17	-3.2%	2026-12-01
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31? No	Held	20	83¢	82¢	$16.40	-$0.20	-1.2%	2027-01-11
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	145.4	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.29	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 14, 2026? Yes	Held	75.7	5.41¢	5¢	$3.79	-$0.32	-7.7%	2026-10-14
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	39	7.99¢	7¢	$2.73	-$0.39	-12.5%	2026-11-01
Will 25% to 34% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	40	50.49¢	49.5¢	$19.80	-$0.40	-2.0%	2026-10-08
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	170.01	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.51	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October? No	Held	5.71	33.99¢	25¢	$1.43	-$0.51	-26.5%	2027-01-08
Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	30	7¢	5¢	$1.50	-$0.60	-28.6%	2026-10-08
Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Redeemable	213.81	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.64	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	29	2.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.66	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	10	6.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.67	-100.0%	2026-10-06
Will the median home value in NYC be between $582,000 and $609,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	35.26	2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.71	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	149.99	16.99¢	16.5¢	$24.75	-$0.75	-2.9%	2028-01-01
Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week? Yes	Held	30	95.89¢	93.15¢	$27.95	-$0.82	-2.9%	2026-10-08
Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	126	0.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.86	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 7, 2026? Yes	Held	51	4.25¢	2.5¢	$1.27	-$0.89	-41.2%	2026-10-07
Will 55% or more of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	20	51¢	46.5¢	$9.30	-$0.90	-8.8%	2026-10-08
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	334.99	18.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.91	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	148.1258	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.04	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	73.7	7.11¢	5.45¢	$4.02	-$1.23	-23.4%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	41	53.99¢	51¢	$20.91	-$1.23	-5.6%	2027-01-01
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 5, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	18	6.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.29	-100.0%	2026-10-06
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	147.06	0.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.40	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	28	4.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.41	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	128.07	13.12¢	12¢	$15.37	-$1.44	-8.6%	2026-11-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	443.76	18.85¢	18.5¢	$82.10	-$1.56	-1.9%	2026-12-01
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	20	61¢	52.5¢	$10.50	-$1.70	-13.9%	2026-10-31
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9.7	16.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.70	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	279.7609	5¢	4.35¢	$12.17	-$1.82	-13.0%	2026-12-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	36.15	4.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.84	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	312	60.59¢	60¢	$187.20	-$1.86	-1.0%	2027-07-01
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	127.85	1.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.91	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	60	23.33¢	20¢	$12.00	-$2.00	-14.3%	2027-01-01
Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	230.8254	0.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.04	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	5.44	42.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.39	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	59.4	5.49¢	1.35¢	$0.80	-$2.46	-75.5%	2026-10-31
Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	15.33	54.99¢	38.5¢	$5.90	-$2.53	-30.0%	2026-11-30
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	59.76	4.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.69	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	30.1	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.71	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	70	34¢	30¢	$21.00	-$2.80	-11.8%	2026-11-02
Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Redeemable	411.0237	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.88	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 12, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	41	6.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.98	-100.0%	2026-10-13
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31? Yes	Held	40.1	20¢	12.5¢	$5.01	-$3.01	-37.5%	2027-01-11
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,201,000 and $1,216,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	50.1	5.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.07	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	207.7524	1.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.12	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9.7	32.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.29	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	60	53.33¢	47.5¢	$28.50	-$3.50	-10.9%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	60	5.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.56	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	193.5	1.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.75	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	40	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.76	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in NYC be between $555,000 and $582,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	39.4	9.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.79	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	162.36	5.64¢	3.3¢	$5.36	-$3.82	-41.6%	2026-11-01
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	151.23	3.32¢	0.75¢	$1.13	-$3.90	-77.5%	2026-10-31
Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,192.6298	0.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.94	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	120.31	3.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.35	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? Yes	Redeemable	186.96	2.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.04	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	66.9	14.01¢	6.3¢	$4.21	-$5.16	-55.0%	2026-10-31
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 28, 2026? Yes	Held	142.82	11.73¢	8¢	$11.43	-$5.34	-31.9%	2026-10-28
Will exactly 6 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes	Held	235.61	2.32¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$5.35	-97.8%	2027-07-01
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? No	Held	283.94	53.43¢	51.5¢	$146.23	-$5.50	-3.6%	2027-07-01
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	153	3.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.50	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	119.19	4.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.54	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	88.9731	6.04¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.57	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	603.8639	1.5¢	0.55¢	$3.32	-$5.74	-63.3%	2026-12-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	488.77	5.08¢	3.9¢	$19.06	-$5.81	-23.4%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	40.03	30.52¢	15.5¢	$6.20	-$6.02	-49.2%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	159.49	3.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.60	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes	Held	19.99	46.99¢	11.5¢	$2.30	-$7.10	-75.5%	2027-01-01
Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October? Yes	Held	68	21¢	10.5¢	$7.14	-$7.14	-50.0%	2027-01-08
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	204.3	37.54¢	34¢	$69.46	-$7.24	-9.4%	2026-12-01
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	220.47	21.38¢	18¢	$39.68	-$7.46	-15.8%	2026-10-31
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	673.9794	1.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.35	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,264,000 and $1,284,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	153.34	5.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.40	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	283.27	11.49¢	8.5¢	$24.08	-$8.49	-26.1%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	110	35.36¢	27.5¢	$30.25	-$8.65	-22.2%	2026-10-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	43.72	19.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.78	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 28, 2026? Yes	Held	140	11¢	4.25¢	$5.95	-$9.45	-61.4%	2026-10-28
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	127.66	7.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.46	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	650.97	1.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.60	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	329.5	4.72¢	1.75¢	$5.77	-$9.81	-63.0%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	91.12	10.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.82	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	187.6	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.83	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes	Held	101.47	46.07¢	36¢	$36.53	-$10.22	-21.9%	2026-12-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	203.53	4.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.45	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	50	79¢	58¢	$29.00	-$10.50	-26.6%	2026-11-01
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	59	17.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.75	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,881.41	0.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.07	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	100.59	16.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.21	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	165	7¢	0.2¢	$0.33	-$11.22	-97.1%	2026-11-01
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? No	Redeemable	51	21.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.57	-100.0%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	107.92	17.44¢	6.5¢	$7.01	-$11.81	-62.7%	2026-11-01
Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	217.2733	6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.84	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will 35% to 44% of Milk Cows inventory be in D1-D4 drought this week? Yes	Held	60	49.33¢	28.5¢	$17.10	-$12.50	-42.2%	2026-10-08
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	182	7.14¢	0.15¢	$0.27	-$12.74	-97.9%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $542,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	113.82	10.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.98	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	65	91¢	71¢	$46.15	-$13.00	-22.0%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,017,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	230.65	5.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.08	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	150	9.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.13	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	9.06	38.51¢	23.5¢	$2.13	-$14.18	-39.0%	2026-11-01
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	245.81	50.54¢	23¢	$56.54	-$14.31	-54.5%	2027-01-01
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026? No	Held	240	76.5¢	70.5¢	$169.20	-$14.40	-7.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	77.57	18.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.53	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? Yes	Held	100	21¢	6¢	$6.00	-$15.00	-71.4%	2026-10-09
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	1.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.00	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	142	14.35¢	3.7¢	$5.25	-$15.13	-74.2%	2026-10-31
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? Yes	Redeemable	167.32	9.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.40	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	87.5	17.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.71	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	2,315.8615	4.48¢	3.8¢	$88.00	-$15.95	-15.3%	2026-10-31
Will "Bass Persuades" - Miley Cyrus first week album sales be less than 40k? Yes	Redeemable	110	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.06	-100.0%	2026-09-26
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	107	14.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.53	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? Yes	Held	840.39	22.5¢	20.5¢	$172.28	-$16.87	-8.9%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	227.0767	7.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.26	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	116.89	14.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.30	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	249.9805	7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.50	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	60.23	28.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.59	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	141.38	14.54¢	1.85¢	$2.62	-$17.95	-87.3%	2026-11-01
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,169,000 and $1,185,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	112.5	15.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.37	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	347.82	12.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.12	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,738.16	10.65¢	9.5¢	$165.13	-$19.35	-10.9%	2026-12-31
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	558.2991	3.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.48	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	100.01	19.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.31	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	30	89.66¢	20¢	$6.00	-$20.90	-77.7%	2026-12-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	122.03	29.34¢	12¢	$14.64	-$21.16	-59.1%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $325,000 and $330,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	624.94	3.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.39	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	715.6363	3.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.78	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	257.68	16.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	141.32	15.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.19	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes	Held	1,454.46	4.24¢	2.7¢	$39.27	-$22.42	-36.3%	2028-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026? Yes	Held	580.53	11.2¢	3.25¢	$18.87	-$22.55	-71.0%	2026-11-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? Yes	Held	512.25	9.31¢	4.2¢	$21.51	-$23.21	-54.9%	2026-10-25
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,317.4512	1.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$23.48	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	110.3	21.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.09	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	543.49	13.35¢	8.9¢	$48.37	-$24.23	-33.4%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	150	15.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.40	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Redeemable	369.81	6.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.29	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	93.19	28.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$27.54	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	397.95	6.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$27.99	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	208	13.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$28.69	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	405.47	6.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.15	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	275.97	10.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.30	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	431.22	33.07¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.46	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	151.71	19.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.99	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	214.74	13.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.17	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	234.57	12.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.87	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	352.59	8.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.88	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	272.25	11.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	175.31	17.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.13	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	63	53.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.22	-100.0%	2026-10-16
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,144.4139	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.96	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027? No	Held	390.9829	14.79¢	6¢	$23.46	-$34.37	-59.4%	2027-07-01
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Redeemable	200.45	16.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.48	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	671.8227	4.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.62	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	361.33	9.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.82	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	290.6	11.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$35.38	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No	Held	25.9437	44.56¢	39.1¢	$10.14	-$36.87	-12.3%	2027-01-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	8,989.2299	0.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$37.83	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	137.42	27.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$38.05	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	246	26.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$38.07	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	340.4	10.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$38.23	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	752.08	16.04¢	10.5¢	$78.97	-$41.71	-34.6%	2026-10-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	145	79.3¢	49.95¢	$72.43	-$42.56	-37.0%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	658.94	6.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.47	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	457.4086	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.74	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	88.66	28.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$43.91	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	262.97	16.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.05	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	220.0635	18.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.02	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	451.57	75.26¢	65¢	$293.52	-$46.34	-13.6%	2028-01-01
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? No	Redeemable	235.1	20.16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.74	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	357.67	13.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.16	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	350.28	13.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.93	-100.0%	2026-10-06
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	306.7	20.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$49.52	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	384.39	12.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.28	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	451.76	10.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.75	-100.0%	2026-10-06
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,628.9	10.4¢	7.25¢	$118.10	-$51.36	-30.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	169.47	89.76¢	58.35¢	$98.89	-$51.36	-35.0%	2027-01-01
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes	Held	100	61.19¢	9.5¢	$9.50	-$51.70	-84.5%	2027-01-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	353.01	14.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.90	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	999.9776	6¢	0.4¢	$4.00	-$56.00	-93.3%	2027-01-01
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	100	55.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.39	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	345.24	16.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$57.41	-100.0%	2026-09-30
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? Yes	Held	445.4	20.66¢	7¢	$31.18	-$60.85	-66.1%	2027-01-01
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	846.99	8.43¢	1.2¢	$10.16	-$61.29	-85.8%	2026-11-01
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	180.02	33.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.77	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	317.32	19.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.05	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,967.65	17.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.47	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	685.86	13.94¢	4.4¢	$30.18	-$65.47	-68.5%	2026-10-31
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,370.93	4.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.55	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	141.06	52.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$70.18	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes	Redeemable	213.32	32.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.13	-100.0%	2027-06-30
Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	442.8	15.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$73.23	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,450.905	3.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$75.66	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,082.21	6.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$76.75	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	577.7144	13.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$77.33	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 160T tokens the week of September 28? Yes	Redeemable	259.6	29.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$77.90	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	408.19	18.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.40	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	214.4	47.18¢	24.5¢	$52.53	-$78.68	-48.1%	2026-10-31
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	618.9629	12.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.75	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	359.9	23.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$85.13	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes	Held	650.13	43.73¢	30.5¢	$198.29	-$86.05	-30.3%	2028-01-01
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	657.84	12.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,315.73	10.88¢	4.15¢	$54.60	-$88.57	-61.9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	175.98	48.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$89.37	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	504.8533	17.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$89.86	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? No	Redeemable	1,020.73	11.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$89.92	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	644.75	13.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$90.59	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	533.42	45.85¢	32.5¢	$173.36	-$91.54	-29.1%	2026-10-31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,530.41	11.61¢	5.3¢	$81.11	-$96.65	-54.4%	2026-12-31
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,120.9	18.61¢	9.5¢	$106.49	-$102.13	-49.0%	2027-01-01
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	348.29	28.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$113.06	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,445.96	13.86¢	6¢	$86.76	-$113.69	-56.7%	2026-12-31
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,546.49	4.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$119.95	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	320.45	37.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$125.30	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,053.67	14.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$125.72	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	742.06	19.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$151.11	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	959.94	15.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$157.61	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	413.61	67.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$195.96	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? Yes	Held	957.91	39.84¢	18¢	$172.42	-$209.22	-54.8%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	793.8029	43.38¢	16¢	$127.01	-$217.35	-63.1%	2027-01-01
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,063.33	24.2¢	2.55¢	$27.11	-$230.24	-89.5%	2026-11-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes	Held	651.39	62.52¢	38.5¢	$250.79	-$236.00	-38.4%	2026-12-31
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,204.51	34.52¢	11.5¢	$138.52	-$277.38	-66.7%	2027-01-01
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes	Held	2,501.44	14.92¢	3.15¢	$78.80	-$294.57	-78.9%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? Yes	Redeemable	727.85	51.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$383.01	-100.0%	2026-10-11
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,009.4073	24.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$496.37	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,572.91	51.48¢	15.5¢	$243.80	-$565.93	-69.9%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,171.6079	15.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$670.65	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Redeemable	867.61	90.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$789.10	-100.0%	2026-09-30

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