Wallet positions

0x5188…c804

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

175

Realized PnL

-$92.9K

Win rate

75.4%

Realized edge

+0.1 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +0.1 pp across 175 resolved positions, 95% CI [-5.3, +4.5], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

357 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:18:25 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.3126	46.39¢	0¢	$0.00	$26.7K	-99.9%	2026-06-30
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No	Redeemable	10,073.3289	82.77¢	0¢	$0.00	$11.4K	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No	Redeemable	1,838.4062	6.34¢	0¢	$0.00	$9.5K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Redeemable	1,412.71	0.69¢	0¢	$0.00	$3.4K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	29,999.9858	28.33¢	35.5¢	$10.6K	$2.2K	+25.3%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	100,000.1166	85.34¢	84.5¢	$84.5K	$2.1K	-1.0%	2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	296,607.0621	5.05¢	0¢	$0.00	$2.0K	-100.0%	—
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? Yes	Redeemable	37.32	7¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.9K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,070.8823	5.83¢	1.8¢	$37.28	$1.7K	-69.1%	2027-01-01
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Held	14,070.65	82.44¢	93.7¢	$13.2K	$1.6K	+13.6%	2026-12-31
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? No	Redeemable	3,500	12.3¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.2K	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	34.1955	2.8¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.1K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Epstein client list released in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	3,284.81	4.13¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-01-01
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Held	22,861.37	66.23¢	70.5¢	$16.1K	$974.38	+6.4%	2028-01-01
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? No	Held	5,242.6082	33.79¢	33.5¢	$1.8K	$741.27	-0.9%	2028-01-01
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	6,023.475	19.18¢	0¢	$0.00	$731.14	-100.0%	2025-12-31
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	0.1101	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	$676.92	-90.8%	2026-03-31
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	3,056.9598	17.4¢	28.5¢	$871.23	$659.32	+63.7%	2027-07-01
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes	Redeemable	1,755.55	7.03¢	0¢	$0.00	$615.85	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No	Held	10,258.6591	51¢	56.5¢	$5.8K	$564.23	+10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? Yes	Held	20,000	26¢	28.5¢	$5.7K	$500.00	+9.6%	2026-11-01
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	23,921.4153	1.28¢	0¢	$0.00	$486.90	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31? Yes	Held	1,517.8431	58.06¢	78.5¢	$1.2K	$451.02	+35.2%	2026-12-31
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? No	Redeemable	26,834.0345	1.11¢	0¢	$0.00	$352.69	-100.0%	—
Will Trump pardon both turkeys? Yes	Redeemable	54.13	9.85¢	0¢	$0.00	$346.05	-100.0%	2025-11-25
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No	Held	13,527.0922	17.18¢	18.5¢	$2.5K	$320.25	+7.6%	2028-01-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	28,265.8416	2.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$285.34	-100.0%	2026-05-08
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	5,000.0072	2¢	0¢	$0.00	$271.85	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027? Yes	Held	982.7542	33.46¢	41.5¢	$407.84	$257.14	+24.0%	2027-10-01
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October? No	Redeemable	10,609.0544	18.65¢	0¢	$0.00	$155.32	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	3,299.8987	12.72¢	0¢	$0.00	$155.26	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	3,098.77	59.99¢	64.5¢	$2.0K	$139.46	+7.5%	2026-11-04
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No	Redeemable	293.75	45.56¢	0¢	$0.00	$138.78	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls? No	Redeemable	953.7083	14.03¢	0¢	$0.00	$138.45	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Held	5,300.08	86.95¢	87.8¢	$4.7K	$124.63	+1.0%	2026-12-31
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	127.6932	6.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$119.54	-100.0%	2025-10-10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Yes	Redeemable	5,965.2402	2.44¢	0¢	$0.00	$119.09	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29? No	Redeemable	61.4191	12¢	0¢	$0.00	$82.19	-100.0%	2025-09-29
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Held	158.1	71.12¢	96.85¢	$153.12	$40.67	+36.2%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31? No	Held	456.17	88.26¢	92.5¢	$421.96	$39.12	+4.8%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit? No	Redeemable	1,985.1357	0.38¢	0¢	$0.00	$32.70	-100.0%	2025-10-13
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	1.2443	41¢	0¢	$0.00	$26.79	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	47,233.6107	0.12¢	0¢	$0.00	$16.12	-100.0%	2026-01-23
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	2.5861	3¢	0¢	$0.00	$14.62	-99.9%	2025-12-31
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No	Held	297.04	93.8¢	97.5¢	$289.61	$10.99	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	100	7¢	12.2¢	$12.20	$5.20	+74.3%	2026-12-31
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes	Held	17	13¢	37.5¢	$6.38	$4.17	+188.5%	2026-12-31
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa hug on Monday? Yes	Redeemable	288.5624	3.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.95	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl” before September Yes	Redeemable	5	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2025-09-30
Will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl” between September 1-15 Yes	Redeemable	5	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2025-09-30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9,335.9476	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-08-24
Lighter Airdrop on January 2? Yes	Redeemable	112.26	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.22	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? Yes	Redeemable	186.47	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.56	-100.0%	2025-12-01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? No	Redeemable	119.8494	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.84	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Player 566 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	250	0.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.92	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 1? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.00	-100.0%	2026-04-01
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	101.02	1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.01	-100.0%	2025-11-05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	8	13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.04	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Player 162 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	299.9915	0.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.08	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Player 112 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	300	0.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.14	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Player 38 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	300	0.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.20	-100.0%	2026-02-25
No airdrop by January 10 Yes	Redeemable	120	1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.20	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Yes	Redeemable	282.11	0.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.28	-100.0%	2025-11-21
Will Player 31 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	122.09	1.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.39	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Yes	Redeemable	64.1506	2.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.43	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? Yes	Redeemable	78.43	1.93¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.52	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 18 2025? Yes	Redeemable	510.19	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.53	-100.0%	2025-11-18
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Redeemable	20	7.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.61	-100.0%	2026-05-14
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Held	2,771.5189	2.3¢	2.25¢	$62.36	-$1.64	-2.6%	2028-01-01
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in November? Yes	Redeemable	1,075.7317	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.72	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? No	Redeemable	46.4	4.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.90	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Atlas global browser market share 3%+ on December 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.00	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump and Robert Fico only be photographed shaking hands? Yes	Redeemable	20	10.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.06	-100.0%	2026-01-17
Will Player 952 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	914.56	0.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.47	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Player 21 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	728.26	0.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.60	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Player 91 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	359.89	1.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.66	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Player 831 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	308.23	1.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.81	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2) No	Redeemable	5	79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.95	-100.0%	2025-11-02
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 1? Down	Redeemable	3,999.982	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.00	-100.0%	2026-01-01
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" this week? No	Redeemable	50	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.00	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit? No	Redeemable	20	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.00	-100.0%	2025-10-13
Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	16	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.16	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Up	Redeemable	10	42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.20	-100.0%	2025-11-08
Will Player 126 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	314.01	1.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.58	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 18? Yes	Redeemable	105.1	4.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.74	-100.0%	2025-12-19
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Yes	Redeemable	5.01	98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.91	-100.0%	2025-11-03
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Yes	Redeemable	10	50¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.00	-100.0%	2025-10-07
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? No	Redeemable	8	64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.12	-100.0%	2026-05-17
Will Trump say "Communist" during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	10	55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.50	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Will Sydney Sweeney apologize for her jeans ad in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	145.2233	4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.81	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa	Redeemable	10	60¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.07	-100.0%	2026-06-11
Will Player 99 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	493.64	1.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.07	-100.0%	2026-02-25
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch? No	Redeemable	229.8231	6.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.22	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? No	Redeemable	10	62.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.29	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? No	Redeemable	81.24	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.50	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	100	7.4¢	0.6¢	$0.60	-$6.80	-91.9%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes	Redeemable	55.58	11.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.90	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25? Yes	Redeemable	27.73	27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.49	-100.0%	2025-09-25
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8? Yes	Redeemable	12	67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.04	-100.0%	2025-12-08
Will "Patient Zero" hit 100m first week streams? Yes	Redeemable	544.52	1.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.48	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	200	4.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.49	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	18.5185	46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.52	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	389.24	2.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.69	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM events on November 7? No	Redeemable	973.94	0.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.90	-100.0%	2025-11-07
Will Shayne say "Polymarket" 2+ times during 60 Minutes? No	Redeemable	644	1.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.95	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	70	16.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.36	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes	Redeemable	381.8	2.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.36	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia by November 30? Yes	Redeemable	206.6666	5.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.79	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Player 42 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,756.81	0.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.95	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in November? No	Redeemable	15	82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.30	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8? Yes	Redeemable	46.33	27.07¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.55	-100.0%	2025-12-08
Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8? Yes	Redeemable	30	42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.60	-100.0%	2025-12-08
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down - October 15 Down	Redeemable	31.7742	40.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.77	-100.0%	2025-10-15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 27? No	Redeemable	925.39	1.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.85	-100.0%	2025-12-27
Will Player 45 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,763.18	0.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.90	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21? No	Redeemable	20	67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.40	-100.0%	2025-11-21
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20? No	Redeemable	60	22.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.60	-100.0%	2025-11-24
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? No	Redeemable	363.22	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.20	-100.0%	2026-03-18
Will Trump say "Biden" at the Kennedy Center Honors event? Yes	Redeemable	390.7518	3.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.41	-100.0%	2025-12-23
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	193.78	8.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.14	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September? Yes	Redeemable	510.5209	3.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.85	-100.0%	2025-10-03
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	1,415.31	1.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.20	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes	Redeemable	125.6502	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.59	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	44.99	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.45	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	300.7153	7.99¢	1.55¢	$4.66	-$18.67	-80.6%	2026-12-31
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next White House press briefing? No	Redeemable	400	4.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.17	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in November? Yes	Redeemable	499.9833	4.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.20	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? Yes	Redeemable	1,412.1017	1.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.24	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the US lose jobs in January? Yes	Redeemable	128	15.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.68	-100.0%	2026-02-06
Will Leavitt say "ICE" during the next White House press briefing? No	Redeemable	309.42	6.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$19.79	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 4? No	Redeemable	2,024.33	0.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.57	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will a contestant numbered 76 - 100 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	977.9674	2.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.30	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 27, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	378.21	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.40	-100.0%	2026-09-28
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	350.35	6.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.50	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Player 194 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	2,755.7649	0.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$23.08	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? Yes	Redeemable	30	80¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.19	-100.0%	2026-05-20
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	2.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.73	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in November? Yes	Redeemable	67.1927	0.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.76	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? No	Redeemable	300	11.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.86	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	5,478.8944	18.99¢	18.5¢	$1.0K	-$27.39	-2.6%	2027-01-01
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 42.5 on November 7 2025? No	Redeemable	106	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$27.56	-100.0%	2025-11-08
Will Trump disparage Ahmed al-Sharaa on Monday? Yes	Redeemable	549.0766	4.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$28.46	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	2,616.2309	1.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$28.79	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams? Yes	Redeemable	963.3015	2.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.43	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No	Held	11,972.1542	84.93¢	84.5¢	$10.1K	-$29.84	-0.5%	2027-04-01
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 10 2025? Yes	Redeemable	663.2177	4.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.87	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in October? No	Redeemable	68.75	43.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$30.13	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will Joe Biden attend Dick Cheney's funeral? No	Redeemable	60	52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.20	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	1,027	3.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.04	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes? No	Redeemable	174.57	19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$33.17	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes	Redeemable	415.66	8.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$34.03	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will a contestant numbered 101 - 125 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,856.6769	2.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$38.99	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Yes	Redeemable	119.99	33.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$40.10	-100.0%	2025-10-07
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	706.72	5.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.59	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 27? Down	Redeemable	220	19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.80	-100.0%	2025-12-27
Will a contestant numbered 26 - 50 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	2,650.2569	1.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.29	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	3,188.03	1.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.63	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump say "Obama" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Yes	Redeemable	199.995	23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.00	-100.0%	2025-10-07
Will a contestant numbered 126 - 150 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,855.6202	2.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.39	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be above 3%? No	Redeemable	47.99	98.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.53	-100.0%	2026-05-20
Lighter Airdrop before January 1? No	Redeemable	321.11	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.17	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,090,000 and $1,100,000 by February 1? Yes	Redeemable	598.9	8.04¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.18	-100.0%	2026-02-01
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10? No	Redeemable	709.58	7.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.47	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Yes	Redeemable	3,439.68	1.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.98	-100.0%	—
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Yes	Redeemable	428.0754	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.37	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files? No	Redeemable	61.8	84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.91	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Rafael Jodar	Redeemable	100	53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$53.75	-100.0%	2026-05-20
LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? Yes	Redeemable	392.2011	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$54.91	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? Yes	Redeemable	4,999.6363	1.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$55.00	-100.0%	2025-11-14
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	103	54.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.35	-100.0%	2025-07-31
Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? No	Redeemable	548.0419	10.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$58.34	-100.0%	2025-10-13
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Yes	Redeemable	99.9904	59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$58.99	-100.0%	2025-09-30
Will Trump say "Olympic" during Panthers visit? Yes	Redeemable	1,243.6	5.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$62.55	-100.0%	2026-01-15
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? No	Redeemable	182.15	65.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$63.90	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	2,886.07	2.25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$65.21	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? No	Redeemable	77	87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$66.99	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? No	Redeemable	80.54	84.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$67.81	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by January 31? No	Redeemable	2,523.57	2.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$68.04	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will "Patient Zero" hit 90m first week streams? Yes	Redeemable	1,196.52	6.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.29	-100.0%	2026-10-02
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	529.7752	13.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$71.82	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,080,000 and $1,090,000 by February 1? Yes	Redeemable	431.22	16.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$73.21	-100.0%	2026-02-01
Will Leavitt say "President" 77+ times during the next White House press briefing? No	Redeemable	300	24.88¢	0¢	$0.00	-$74.64	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No	Held	16,972.31	36¢	35.5¢	$6.0K	-$74.72	-1.4%	2028-01-01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,200.27	3.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$75.01	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? No	Redeemable	573.95	13.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$77.01	-100.0%	2025-11-03
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? No	Redeemable	137.66	44.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.88	-100.0%	2025-10-03
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 18 2025? Yes	Redeemable	749.9836	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$82.50	-100.0%	2025-11-18
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	34,948.404	0.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$83.70	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition No	Redeemable	2,063.8283	4.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$84.22	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? No	Redeemable	2,339.19	5.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$84.70	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November? No	Redeemable	141.37	64.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$90.85	-100.0%	2025-11-30
LAPTOP airdrop by September 30? No	Redeemable	1,072.5806	4.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$92.88	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	170.1708	55.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$93.32	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August? Yes	Redeemable	322.92	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$93.65	-100.0%	2025-08-31
Will a contestant numbered 51 - 75 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	3,693.4864	2.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$93.69	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Yes	Redeemable	663.23	14.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$96.18	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday? No	Redeemable	135.25	13.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$97.17	-100.0%	2026-02-20
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? Yes	Redeemable	4,445.2802	2.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$97.81	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in November? Yes	Redeemable	1,654.1839	6.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$106.08	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes	Redeemable	932.4108	14.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$109.80	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Samsung release a trifold phone by December 31? No	Redeemable	220	50¢	0¢	$0.00	-$110.00	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 10 2025? Yes	Redeemable	280	41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$110.40	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Will Cynthia Lummis attend Dick Cheney's funeral? No	Redeemable	218.41	51.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$112.45	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Player 191 win Beast Games: Season 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,699.2676	6.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$115.38	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during events with Turkish president on September 25? Yes	Redeemable	312	38.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$121.62	-100.0%	2025-09-25
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 29? Down	Redeemable	2,111.4583	5.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$124.46	-100.0%	2025-11-29
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico by November 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,220.1969	11.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$126.09	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Trump say "N Word" in January? Yes	Redeemable	2,871.2691	4.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$131.51	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? Yes	Redeemable	2,085.0507	2.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$134.41	-100.0%	2025-10-24
Will Jerome Powell be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	15,161.5029	0.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$135.32	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? No	Redeemable	2,000	7.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$143.99	-100.0%	2025-11-19
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29? No	Redeemable	714.1222	20.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.74	-100.0%	2025-09-29
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? No	Redeemable	676.04	21.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$147.39	-100.0%	2025-12-25
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No	Redeemable	213	69.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$147.99	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" this week? (December 1 - 7) No	Redeemable	908.51	16.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$148.73	-100.0%	2025-12-07
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Redeemable	1,997.35	7.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$148.73	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Leavitt say "Bill" or "Clinton" during the next White House press briefing? No	Redeemable	2,520.16	6.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$151.95	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	283.6057	11.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$154.31	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? No	Redeemable	3,000	5.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$155.78	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10? Yes	Redeemable	400	43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$172.00	-100.0%	2025-11-10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,062.87	17.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$180.90	-100.0%	2026-01-01
Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile by December 31? Yes	Redeemable	2,743.6625	6.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$183.10	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes	Redeemable	394.38	46.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$189.29	-100.0%	2026-06-22
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? No	Redeemable	2,838.2987	6.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$189.97	-100.0%	2025-12-31
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? No	Redeemable	1.3648	9.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$190.76	-99.9%	2026-01-31
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? No	Redeemable	350	56.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$196.66	-100.0%	2025-11-05
Thailand x Cambodia military engagement by November 30, 2025? No	Redeemable	1,443.04	14.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$205.59	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? Yes	Redeemable	4,673.57	4.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$205.64	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21? No	Redeemable	280	74.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$208.20	-100.0%	2025-11-21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Yes	Redeemable	8,085.86	2.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$213.43	-100.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,102.6	7.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$221.04	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	4,999.9818	78¢	73.5¢	$3.7K	-$225.00	-5.8%	2026-11-04
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? No	Redeemable	3,439.8671	6.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$236.01	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Yes	Redeemable	7,677.5745	3.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$238.50	-100.0%	2025-11-07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	7,665.5056	5.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$242.68	-100.0%	2026-05-08
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? No	Redeemable	370.26	66.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$244.81	-100.0%	2025-12-02
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? No	Redeemable	500	49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$245.00	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29? No	Redeemable	703.608	36.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$253.53	-100.0%	2025-09-29
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	60,821.231	0.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$253.87	-100.0%	2026-01-23
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? Yes	Redeemable	1,090	23.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$261.22	-100.0%	2025-12-08
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	46,773.7915	0.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$269.04	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January? Yes	Redeemable	1,349.59	20.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$276.00	-100.0%	2026-02-06
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in November? Yes	Redeemable	5,727.4912	4.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$283.19	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,635.49	8.17¢	0¢	$0.00	-$308.01	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Zizou Bergs Roberto Bautista Agut	Redeemable	399.9988	82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$328.00	-100.0%	2026-05-21
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? No	Redeemable	569.02	58.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$331.51	-100.0%	2026-04-21
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes	Redeemable	2,499.9964	13.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$345.00	-100.0%	2026-05-19
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,899.9859	19.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$363.99	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during his Squawk Box appearance on August 5? No	Redeemable	873.94	42.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$368.85	-100.0%	2025-08-05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	908.1428	36.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$371.02	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? No	Redeemable	689.9578	57.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$387.65	-100.0%	2025-11-07
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,454.28	26.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$397.32	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	79,999.9984	34.99¢	34.5¢	$27.6K	-$399.91	-1.4%	2027-01-01
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,834.65	21.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$408.43	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November? Yes	Redeemable	3,003.7145	13.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$420.19	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes	Redeemable	6,047.3127	0.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$444.61	-100.0%	2026-10-31
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Redeemable	2,366.1629	18.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$445.43	-100.0%	2026-08-28
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? Yes	Redeemable	8,086.95	5.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$452.10	-100.0%	2025-10-24
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Yes	Redeemable	2,831.0775	16.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$464.79	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? No	Redeemable	2,322	20.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$465.26	-100.0%	2026-02-06
Will Donald Trump issue 0 executive order in the week of October 10? No	Redeemable	3,078.2689	15.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$472.20	-100.0%	2025-10-10
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? No	Redeemable	1,213.99	39.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$483.42	-100.0%	2025-08-01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 4? No	Redeemable	16,012.4195	2.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$486.06	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Yes	Redeemable	6,462.06	7.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$491.84	-100.0%	2026-03-31
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? No	Redeemable	2,670.46	17.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$498.73	-100.0%	2026-06-09
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	3,003.0272	16.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$506.46	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	52,653.09	0.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$520.27	-100.0%	2026-05-14
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? No	Redeemable	641.8214	89.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$521.34	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	54,515.5544	1.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$536.02	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Held	12,000	77.99¢	73.5¢	$8.8K	-$539.97	-5.8%	2026-11-04
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31? No	Redeemable	9,727.14	5.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$540.70	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference? Yes	Redeemable	4,096.76	12.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$550.42	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? No	Redeemable	2,200	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$572.00	-100.0%	2025-11-03
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes	Redeemable	94,185.5847	0.61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$581.97	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Kanye West / Ye rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Yes	Redeemable	3,833.3127	15.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$585.62	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18? Yes	Redeemable	35,250.1597	1.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$589.17	-100.0%	—
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? No	Redeemable	4,637.4	13.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$611.42	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	42,017.8083	1.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$634.38	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes	Redeemable	10,459.728	7.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$635.07	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Held	10,000.2032	12.23¢	4.9¢	$490.01	-$639.35	-59.9%	2027-01-01
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes	Redeemable	13,496.7648	5.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$676.80	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28? No	Redeemable	2,749.1764	0.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$689.09	-100.0%	—
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Held	25,435.54	26.26¢	23.5¢	$6.0K	-$695.61	-10.5%	2028-01-01
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? No	Redeemable	2,394.9191	27.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$748.74	-100.0%	2025-10-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	6,335	12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$760.20	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will a handshake between Trump and Mamdani only be photographed on November 21 2025? Yes	Redeemable	4,064.9243	20.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$835.10	-100.0%	2025-11-21
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No	Redeemable	4,253.8936	5.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$836.45	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Pope" in November? Yes	Redeemable	553.57	97.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$865.48	-100.0%	2025-11-30
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? No	Redeemable	1,268.5501	66.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$867.46	-100.0%	2025-12-02
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	14,034.0581	6.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$898.88	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Trump renames AI by September 30? No	Redeemable	2,707.1339	57.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$909.31	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview? Yes	Redeemable	171,586.0595	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$932.34	-100.0%	2026-01-21
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes	Redeemable	109,196.8653	1.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$937.58	-100.0%	—
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No	Redeemable	1,194.49	79.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$963.24	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? Yes	Redeemable	8,615.6233	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$966.91	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Trump kiss by May 31? No	Redeemable	2,510.87	38.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$980.78	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? No	Redeemable	38,854.4732	0.56¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? No	Redeemable	7,808.5223	13.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-04-01
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15? Yes	Redeemable	24,980.0576	4.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2025-10-24
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? Yes	Redeemable	3,305.49	32.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	31,343.81	14.99¢	11.5¢	$3.6K	-$1.1K	-23.3%	2027-01-01
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	331.23	4.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026? No	Redeemable	7,497.5718	15.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.2K	-100.0%	2026-02-06
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Yes	Redeemable	42.5313	38.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.2K	-100.0%	2026-05-17
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	637,213.0635	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	—
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No	Held	29,567.8199	15.91¢	11.5¢	$3.4K	-$1.3K	-27.8%	2028-01-01
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" 7+ times during Saudi PM events on November 18? No	Redeemable	2,262.64	59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2025-11-18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Yes	Redeemable	27,389.8041	5.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15? No	Redeemable	1,627	85.22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-08-15
Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025? Yes	Redeemable	6,462.57	22.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2025-11-21
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? No	Redeemable	17,902.9201	11.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Yes	Redeemable	5,899.2221	20.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Redeemable	4,413.75	32.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.4K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	80,745.2718	1.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? No	Redeemable	21.9293	58.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? No	Redeemable	28,949.6069	5.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2025-12-19
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday? No	Redeemable	4,761.2673	32.01¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.5K	-100.0%	2025-11-21
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Redeemable	1,740.55	89.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	90,200.8178	1.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? No	Redeemable	2,475.1965	74.67¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.8K	-100.0%	2025-11-04
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	11,278.1908	20.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.9K	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Yes	Redeemable	6,885.46	27.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.9K	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? No	Redeemable	12,676.6408	22.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.9K	-100.0%	2026-03-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	14,519.83	7.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.0K	-100.0%	2026-05-11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? No	Redeemable	11,339.4	17.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.0K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes	Redeemable	27,134.77	8.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.2K	-100.0%	2027-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? No	Redeemable	12,586.55	16.87¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	97,307	2.42¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.4K	-100.0%	2026-05-13
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Yes	Redeemable	10,332.92	22.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.4K	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	47,705.805	5.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.6K	-100.0%	2026-05-14
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes	Redeemable	30,658.5933	10.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? No	Redeemable	43,697.5261	6.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? No	Redeemable	2.4916	68.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.2K	-100.0%	—
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Yes	Redeemable	17,117.6524	19.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.3K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	23,899.6189	15.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.7K	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes	Redeemable	117.9612	5.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.8K	-100.0%	2026-04-30
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No	Redeemable	23,802.0934	25.86¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2027-12-31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 4? No	Redeemable	12,982.59	31.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.3K	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	12,571.0747	36.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.6K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2? No	Redeemable	16,053.2917	29.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.6K	-100.0%	2026-02-25
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No	Redeemable	14,627.2863	32.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? No	Redeemable	6,828.5181	77.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? No	Redeemable	12,197.55	55.85¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	9,309.38	77.95¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.3K	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? No	Redeemable	9,964.42	73.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.4K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	67,041.8308	12.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-07
No airdrop in 2025? Yes	Redeemable	25,815.6062	35.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.6K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No	Held	38,918.779	39.63¢	14.5¢	$5.6K	-$10.0K	-63.4%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	60.3985	41.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.4K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? No	Redeemable	9,422.5038	73.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$11.7K	-100.0%	2026-08-12
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? No	Redeemable	23,026.4618	54.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.6K	-100.0%	2026-01-01
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? No	Redeemable	37,380.689	38.34¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.7K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	216,657.655	10.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.6K	-100.0%	2026-05-15
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? No	Redeemable	99,967.9719	14.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.8K	-100.0%	2025-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? No	Redeemable	37,305.05	44.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	33,330.1399	61.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.3K	-100.0%	2026-01-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	95,198.8269	11.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.5K	-100.0%	2026-04-22

Download this record (Researcher, or an address you have verified as your own):Record CSV JSON

Check available wallet history →