Wallet positions

0x511f…cbe1

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$484.93

Win rate

85.1%

Realized edge

+3.7 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +3.7 pp across 87 resolved positions, 95% CI [+1.5, +8.0], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-19 05:19:14 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	12.7945	69.2¢	72.85¢	$9.32	$16.2K	+5.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	710.5137	3.74¢	12.5¢	$88.81	$5.8K	+233.3%	2026-10-29
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	13.2759	1.6¢	67.5¢	$8.96	$4.9K	+4101.4%	2026-10-28
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No	Held	4.01	80.29¢	78.5¢	$3.15	$2.7K	-2.2%	2026-10-25
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes	Held	21.491	8.89¢	35¢	$7.52	$1.8K	+293.3%	2026-10-23
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? No	Held	21.4911	76.19¢	65¢	$13.97	$1.8K	-14.7%	2026-10-23
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes	Held	437.75	2.77¢	5.5¢	$24.08	$1.6K	+98.0%	2027-07-01
Will T1 win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	633.1942	4.91¢	15.5¢	$98.15	$1.6K	+215.5%	2026-11-29
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	3.574	1.12¢	77.85¢	$2.78	$1.3K	+6845.0%	2027-01-01
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes	Held	12.6519	2.77¢	7.5¢	$0.95	$1.2K	+170.0%	2027-07-01
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026? No	Held	22.4436	82.03¢	79.5¢	$17.84	$1.2K	-3.1%	2026-11-29
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting? Yes	Held	230.3777	20.31¢	82.3¢	$189.60	$1.0K	+305.1%	2026-12-10
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	1.6648	1.98¢	75.5¢	$1.26	$871.20	+3704.0%	2026-10-27
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	84.5183	4.83¢	31.5¢	$26.62	$854.74	+551.3%	2026-11-29
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	20.7691	99.62¢	99.75¢	$20.72	$786.43	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	2.2821	4.75¢	77.5¢	$1.77	$774.78	+1530.8%	2026-09-14
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	33.4882	0.88¢	63.5¢	$21.27	$770.97	+7065.4%	2027-01-02
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? Yes	Held	25.0842	9.14¢	61¢	$15.30	$758.74	+567.2%	2026-10-26
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	0.8548	1.74¢	66.5¢	$0.57	$745.06	+3699.9%	2026-10-25
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes	Held	117.8893	2.77¢	19.5¢	$22.99	$638.60	+602.0%	2027-07-01
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	12.7853	0.46¢	27.15¢	$3.47	$621.04	+5765.2%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? No	Held	22.663	65.48¢	61¢	$13.82	$597.78	-6.8%	2026-10-26
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	15.3838	76.99¢	81.05¢	$12.47	$532.67	+5.3%	2028-01-01
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	4.0029	1.89¢	21.5¢	$0.86	$514.55	+1033.1%	2026-10-25
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Held	9.3085	87.73¢	99.45¢	$9.26	$502.91	+13.4%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8464	33.47¢	100¢	$0.85	$474.79	+198.8%	2026-10-06
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	0.9423	5.62¢	60.5¢	$0.57	$464.50	+976.0%	2026-11-04
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes	Held	22.6729	8.92¢	39¢	$8.84	$435.22	+337.0%	2026-10-26
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	22.4456	4.83¢	20.5¢	$4.60	$433.43	+324.2%	2026-11-29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	17.4927	86.41¢	90.5¢	$15.83	$398.05	+4.7%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	15.3833	8.47¢	18.95¢	$2.92	$383.83	+123.6%	2028-01-01
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? No	Held	0.8548	41.99¢	33.5¢	$0.29	$377.44	-20.2%	2026-10-25
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	2.285	0.7¢	17.05¢	$0.39	$374.44	+2314.2%	2026-09-14
Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Held	1,980.63	18.17¢	36.5¢	$722.93	$370.34	+100.8%	—
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? No	Held	20.0086	50.44¢	54.5¢	$10.90	$368.90	+8.0%	2026-10-19
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	29	94.9¢	94.7¢	$27.46	$359.48	-0.2%	2027-01-01
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	10,446.6031	1.05¢	0.05¢	$5.22	$352.82	-95.3%	2027-01-01
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	303.405	4.83¢	17.5¢	$53.10	$340.58	+261.8%	2026-11-29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	17.4927	71.58¢	74.5¢	$13.03	$306.67	+4.1%	2028-01-01
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes	Held	4.6434	2.24¢	34.5¢	$1.60	$292.16	+1439.2%	2026-11-29
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes	Redeemable	0.9056	1.45¢	100¢	$0.91	$249.02	+6776.1%	2026-10-18
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? No	Held	0.8548	56.99¢	68.5¢	$0.59	$220.56	+20.2%	2026-10-25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8496	75.78¢	100¢	$0.85	$218.51	+31.9%	2026-10-06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	17.4927	8.5¢	25.5¢	$4.46	$200.09	+199.9%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	17.4912	8.54¢	9.5¢	$1.66	$194.73	+11.2%	2028-01-01
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Held	9.3117	99.09¢	99.65¢	$9.28	$192.28	+0.6%	2028-01-01
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	52.9¢	100¢	$0.48	$185.26	+89.0%	2027-04-01
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	51.5573	0.77¢	24.5¢	$12.63	$184.23	+3076.4%	2026-10-27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.1119	60.59¢	100¢	$0.11	$181.52	+64.9%	2026-10-05
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes	Held	214.17	2.63¢	5.5¢	$11.78	$172.51	+109.0%	2027-07-01
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	0.5773	19.38¢	97¢	$0.56	$163.41	+400.2%	2026-10-30
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes	Held	0.343	13.85¢	94.3¢	$0.32	$152.25	+580.6%	2026-10-31
Will England win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	14.2839	6.2¢	17.5¢	$2.50	$106.06	+181.9%	2027-06-14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	13.1211	93.1¢	96.55¢	$12.67	$104.62	+3.7%	2028-01-01
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes	Held	5.9474	17.33¢	21.25¢	$1.26	$101.52	+22.6%	2026-12-01
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? Yes	Held	52.52	9.77¢	46.5¢	$24.42	$93.79	+375.7%	2026-10-25
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	16,269.9397	1.07¢	0.05¢	$8.13	$93.46	-95.3%	2026-10-31
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes	Held	420.6	2.38¢	10.5¢	$44.16	$92.03	+341.0%	2027-05-30
Will Netherlands win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	107.3739	5.47¢	5.5¢	$5.91	$83.82	+0.5%	2027-06-14
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4.1894	16.22¢	62.25¢	$2.61	$82.18	+283.6%	2026-10-31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	0.8526	2.23¢	100¢	$0.85	$78.42	+4376.5%	2026-10-06
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	3,714.9994	2.22¢	3.75¢	$139.31	$74.51	+68.8%	2026-11-04
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes	Held	4.8201	6.76¢	21.5¢	$1.04	$69.11	+217.8%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8383	85.69¢	100¢	$0.84	$60.54	+16.7%	2026-10-16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	13.1149	8.65¢	3.45¢	$0.45	$57.48	-60.1%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8316	89.57¢	100¢	$0.83	$52.94	+11.6%	2026-10-16
Will the Boston Celtics be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? Yes	Held	67.7034	5.25¢	12.5¢	$8.46	$52.94	+137.9%	2027-07-01
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? No	Held	20.0054	75.96¢	89¢	$17.80	$50.39	+17.2%	2026-10-20
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	63.0059	0.82¢	15.75¢	$9.92	$44.44	+1819.1%	2026-11-01
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	87.4¢	100¢	$0.48	$42.78	+14.4%	2026-10-10
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.41	73.59¢	100¢	$0.41	$41.94	+35.9%	2026-10-09
Will France win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	23.9908	5.7¢	20.5¢	$4.92	$38.23	+259.1%	2027-06-14
Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	23.9909	6.2¢	11.15¢	$2.67	$36.78	+79.6%	2027-06-14
Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? Yes	Held	0.6	15.66¢	18.9¢	$0.11	$35.29	+20.6%	2027-04-01
Will the Detroit Pistons be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? Yes	Held	31.3634	5.25¢	7.5¢	$2.35	$33.81	+42.7%	2027-07-01
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	35.13	4.53¢	5.3¢	$1.86	$33.55	+16.7%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	20.0085	7.72¢	45.5¢	$9.10	$33.51	+488.8%	2026-10-19
Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	4.6485	6.2¢	31.5¢	$1.46	$32.52	+407.4%	2027-06-14
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8307	99.51¢	100¢	$0.83	$32.38	+0.5%	2026-10-16
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	5.7519	84.18¢	59.95¢	$3.45	$28.18	-28.8%	2026-10-20
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4.1796	16.24¢	31.7¢	$1.32	$24.72	+95.1%	2026-10-31
Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes	Held	18.3402	6.25¢	96.25¢	$17.65	$22.47	+1440.0%	2026-10-21
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	61.67	1.77¢	30.25¢	$18.66	$21.98	+1601.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more? Yes	Held	4.02	8.17¢	95.4¢	$3.83	$19.97	+1067.6%	2026-11-04
Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections? Yes	Held	72.0616	5.14¢	14¢	$10.09	$19.76	+172.0%	2026-11-04
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Yes	Held	274.3908	4.95¢	12¢	$32.93	$19.61	+142.3%	2026-10-20
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.7222	96.96¢	100¢	$0.72	$18.25	+3.1%	2026-10-14
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	98.29¢	100¢	$0.48	$17.79	+1.7%	2027-04-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4173	85.31¢	100¢	$0.42	$17.78	+17.2%	2026-10-09
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? Yes	Held	249.7401	5.3¢	11¢	$27.47	$17.04	+107.3%	2026-10-20
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	94.45¢	100¢	$0.48	$15.77	+5.9%	2027-04-01
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	99.2329	6.07¢	1.15¢	$1.14	$14.83	-81.1%	2026-10-19
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.41	85.47¢	100¢	$0.41	$13.68	+17.0%	2026-10-09
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the United States? Yes	Held	15.56	3.44¢	1.7¢	$0.26	$13.16	-50.7%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? Yes	Held	5.5775	4.32¢	40.05¢	$2.23	$13.11	+826.2%	2026-10-20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.1887	87.44¢	69.75¢	$0.13	$12.79	-20.2%	2026-10-20
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	95.64¢	100¢	$0.48	$11.02	+4.6%	2026-10-10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%? Yes	Held	64	6.9¢	23.5¢	$15.04	$10.62	+240.1%	2026-11-04
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes	Held	4.9711	30.99¢	65.65¢	$3.26	$10.42	+111.8%	2026-11-15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	0.1056	11.06¢	100¢	$0.11	$9.84	+803.9%	2026-10-05
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.1767	93.25¢	99.55¢	$0.18	$9.25	+6.7%	2026-10-20
Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election? Yes	Held	60.7402	5.14¢	12¢	$7.29	$8.49	+133.2%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.1801	88.6¢	98.45¢	$0.18	$8.24	+11.0%	2026-10-20
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	61	0.38¢	13.5¢	$8.23	$8.00	+3396.5%	2030-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.1677	89.31¢	83.05¢	$0.14	$7.82	-7.0%	2026-10-20
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	29.0087	99.39¢	97.5¢	$28.28	$7.78	-1.9%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	10.6663	89.81¢	97.95¢	$10.45	$7.69	+9.1%	2026-10-20
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	2.4687	81.96¢	88.35¢	$2.18	$7.38	+7.8%	2026-10-20
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	229.5968	0.72¢	0.45¢	$1.03	$7.31	-38.3%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	15	23.16¢	68.5¢	$10.28	$6.80	+195.8%	2026-12-09
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	96.93¢	100¢	$0.48	$6.07	+3.1%	2026-10-10
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes	Held	0.19	7.68¢	94.9¢	$0.18	$5.26	+1133.4%	2028-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.41	95.87¢	100¢	$0.41	$4.49	+4.3%	2026-10-09
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes	Held	2.77	10.25¢	24.5¢	$0.68	$4.08	+139.0%	2028-01-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	0.2946	93.78¢	100¢	$0.29	$3.99	+6.6%	2026-10-01
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Yes	Held	20.0293	9.78¢	15¢	$3.00	$3.80	+53.3%	2026-10-25
Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	74.59	0.91¢	2.95¢	$2.20	$3.31	+223.8%	2030-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? Yes	Held	2.2911	4.77¢	11.65¢	$0.27	$3.25	+144.2%	2026-10-20
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes	Held	20.7	7.66¢	12.5¢	$2.59	$3.20	+63.1%	—
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	38.34	0.38¢	4.55¢	$1.74	$2.65	+1078.4%	2030-01-01
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	64.17	5.18¢	8¢	$5.13	$2.41	+54.2%	2027-01-27
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	1.1899	3.22¢	30¢	$0.36	$2.37	+829.8%	2026-12-31
Will Tomáš Portlík be the next Mayor of Prague? Yes	Held	87	0.16¢	2.8¢	$2.44	$2.29	+1580.6%	2026-10-10
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? Yes	Held	2.35	11.96¢	91.3¢	$2.15	$1.86	+662.8%	2027-01-01
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	3	1.42¢	60.7¢	$1.82	$1.78	+4149.1%	2027-04-01
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.18	92.49¢	99.85¢	$0.18	$1.53	+7.9%	2026-10-20
Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague? Yes	Held	87	0.16¢	1.55¢	$1.35	$1.20	+830.3%	2026-10-10
Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings? Yes	Held	1.01	4.34¢	93.95¢	$0.95	$0.94	+2060.4%	2027-01-01
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes	Held	0.7881	2.36¢	99.9¢	$0.79	$0.77	+4118.8%	2026-10-06
Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Redeemable	0.65	75.99¢	100¢	$0.65	$0.72	+31.6%	2026-10-04
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	10.4	95.19¢	99.85¢	$10.38	$0.54	+4.9%	2026-10-20
Will Hayden Panettiere be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	3	1.42¢	18¢	$0.54	$0.50	+1160.0%	2026-12-31
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026? Yes	Held	6.68	2.81¢	11.7¢	$0.78	$0.47	+314.9%	2026-10-28
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Held	3.8955	6.6¢	18.5¢	$0.72	$0.46	+180.0%	2027-03-02
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	265.6499	0¢	0.15¢	$0.40	$0.40	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	0.941	2.56¢	40.5¢	$0.38	$0.36	+1481.5%	2026-11-04
Will BLG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	1.18	3.22¢	29¢	$0.34	$0.30	+798.9%	2026-12-31
Will HLE be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	1.18	3.22¢	28¢	$0.33	$0.29	+767.9%	2026-12-31
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? Yes	Held	3	1.42¢	11¢	$0.33	$0.29	+669.9%	2027-04-01
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	2.6212	16.66¢	23¢	$0.60	$0.17	+38.0%	2026-10-25
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026? No	Held	3.34	92.69¢	88.3¢	$2.95	$0.16	-4.7%	2026-10-28
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? No	Held	0.1887	93.5¢	99.55¢	$0.19	$0.15	+6.4%	2026-10-20
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	265.6499	0¢	0.05¢	$0.13	$0.13	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	265.6499	0¢	0.05¢	$0.13	$0.13	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	265.6499	0¢	0.05¢	$0.13	$0.13	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	265.6499	0¢	0.05¢	$0.13	$0.13	0.0%	2026-11-01
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes	Held	0.5066	14¢	27.5¢	$0.14	$0.07	+96.3%	2026-12-31
Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	1.18	3.22¢	8.5¢	$0.10	$0.06	+163.4%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	6.01	21.6¢	19¢	$1.14	$0.04	-12.0%	2026-12-09
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes	Held	0.5066	14¢	21¢	$0.11	$0.04	+49.8%	2026-12-31
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	37.5	0.86¢	0.75¢	$0.28	-$0.02	-13.7%	2026-10-31
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	48	0.86¢	0.6¢	$0.29	-$0.13	-31.0%	2026-10-31
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	48	0.86¢	0.55¢	$0.26	-$0.15	-36.7%	2026-10-31
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	48	0.86¢	0.5¢	$0.24	-$0.18	-42.5%	2026-10-31
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? No	Held	20	96¢	95¢	$19.00	-$0.20	-1.0%	2026-10-25
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	48	0.86¢	0.45¢	$0.22	-$0.20	-48.2%	2026-10-31
Will DeepSeek be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	48	0.86¢	0.2¢	$0.10	-$0.32	-77.0%	2026-10-31
Will The Debut win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Held	20	2.17¢	0.5¢	$0.10	-$0.33	-77.0%	2027-07-01
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	20.48	2.94¢	0.5¢	$0.10	-$0.50	-83.0%	2026-11-01
Will ByteDance be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	20.48	2.94¢	0.5¢	$0.10	-$0.50	-83.0%	2026-11-01
DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026? Yes	Held	20	11¢	8.5¢	$1.70	-$0.50	-22.7%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	80	5.18¢	4.55¢	$3.64	-$0.51	-12.3%	2027-01-27
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	77	1.77¢	0.75¢	$0.58	-$0.79	-57.8%	2026-12-31
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026? Yes	Held	20.1	3.33¢	0.5¢	$0.10	-$0.97	-85.0%	2026-10-31
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026? Yes	Held	20	3.33¢	0.5¢	$0.10	-$1.09	-85.0%	2026-10-26
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	77	1.77¢	0.15¢	$0.12	-$1.25	-91.6%	2027-01-01
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? No	Held	20	92¢	85¢	$17.00	-$1.40	-7.6%	2026-10-25
Will "Instadocs: AI Gone Wild" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes	Held	25	6.25¢	0.4¢	$0.10	-$1.46	-93.6%	2026-10-21
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	64.17	5.18¢	3.4¢	$2.18	-$1.65	-34.5%	2027-01-27
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Yes	Held	4.41	10.25¢	4.75¢	$0.21	-$1.69	-53.7%	2028-01-01
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	80	5.18¢	2.95¢	$2.36	-$1.79	-43.1%	2027-01-27
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	80	5.18¢	2.9¢	$2.32	-$1.83	-44.1%	2027-01-27
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Saudi Arabia? Yes	Held	31.4	3.44¢	0.55¢	$0.17	-$2.01	-84.0%	2028-01-01
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%? Yes	Held	113.48	9.77¢	9.4¢	$10.67	-$2.06	-3.8%	2026-10-25
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	99.08¢	100¢	$0.48	-$2.17	+0.9%	2026-10-10
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	15.0071	23.15¢	2.65¢	$0.40	-$2.19	-88.6%	2026-12-09
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%? Yes	Held	4.47	6.9¢	2.4¢	$0.11	-$2.22	-65.3%	2026-11-04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8495	99.29¢	100¢	$0.85	-$2.45	+0.7%	2026-10-06
Kamala Harris Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? Yes	Held	37	7.25¢	0.45¢	$0.17	-$2.52	-93.8%	2026-10-31
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Redeemable	0.4824	99.19¢	100¢	$0.48	-$2.59	+0.8%	2026-10-10
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes	Held	80	5.18¢	1.75¢	$1.40	-$2.75	-66.3%	2027-01-27
Will Ra'am win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	202.62	1.89¢	0.5¢	$1.01	-$2.83	-73.6%	2026-10-28
Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	245	1.23¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$2.90	-95.9%	2030-01-01
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	245	1.23¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$2.90	-95.9%	2030-01-01
Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	245	1.23¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$2.90	-95.9%	2030-01-01
Will Sahra Wagenknecht be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	245	1.23¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$2.90	-95.9%	2030-01-01
Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany? Yes	Held	245	1.23¢	0.05¢	$0.12	-$2.90	-95.9%	2030-01-01
Will Amcha Yisrael win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	202.62	1.89¢	0.4¢	$0.81	-$3.03	-78.9%	2026-10-28
Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	158	2.43¢	0.45¢	$0.71	-$3.14	-81.6%	2026-10-31
Will StepFun be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	158	2.43¢	0.45¢	$0.71	-$3.14	-81.6%	2026-10-31
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.41	98.41¢	100¢	$0.41	-$3.21	+1.6%	2026-10-09
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more? Yes	Held	39.87	6.9¢	0.45¢	$0.18	-$3.26	-93.5%	2026-11-04
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Redeemable	0.65	99.23¢	100¢	$0.65	-$3.32	+0.8%	2026-10-04
Will Augusto Cury win less than 1% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Redeemable	0.65	99.62¢	100¢	$0.65	-$3.39	+0.4%	2026-10-04
Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	158	2.43¢	0.1¢	$0.16	-$3.70	-95.9%	2026-10-31
Will Tencent be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	158	2.43¢	0.1¢	$0.16	-$3.70	-95.9%	2026-10-31
Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	275.8933	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.14	-$3.74	-96.4%	2026-11-01
Will Noam win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	202.62	1.89¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$3.74	-97.4%	2026-10-28
Will Blue and White win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	202.62	1.89¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$3.74	-97.4%	2026-10-28
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes	Held	15	9.94¢	1.55¢	$0.23	-$3.88	-84.4%	2026-12-09
Will Belgium win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	9.5109	6.2¢	1.85¢	$0.18	-$4.23	-70.2%	2027-06-14
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Yes	Held	4.63	10.25¢	5.1¢	$0.24	-$4.67	-50.2%	2027-12-31
Will Republicans win the Alaska Governor election and Democrats win the Alaska Senate election? Yes	Held	155.6302	5.14¢	3.1¢	$4.82	-$4.70	-39.8%	2026-11-04
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	30.0016	4.23¢	4.45¢	$1.33	-$5.05	+5.1%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? Yes	Held	10.6663	4.32¢	2.05¢	$0.22	-$5.49	-52.6%	2026-10-20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.41	99.32¢	100¢	$0.41	-$5.70	+0.7%	2026-10-09
Will John Rustad be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes	Held	192	3.03¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$5.72	-98.3%	2026-10-24
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 120 and 140 million views on week 1? No	Held	62	99.79¢	99.95¢	$61.97	-$5.80	+0.2%	2026-10-23
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.15¢	$0.62	-$7.49	-92.4%	2026-11-01
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.15¢	$0.62	-$7.49	-92.4%	2026-11-01
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.15¢	$0.62	-$7.49	-92.4%	2026-11-01
Will StepFun have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Nvidia have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will MiniMax have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	411.5033	1.97¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$7.91	-97.5%	2026-11-01
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	13.004	2.07¢	0.9¢	$0.12	-$8.53	-56.6%	2026-12-31
Will Singapore win Group D at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? Yes	Held	36.9	14.28¢	2.1¢	$0.77	-$8.89	-85.3%	2027-02-06
Will the Labor Party (PT) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Held	338	2.82¢	0.15¢	$0.51	-$9.04	-94.7%	2027-06-07
Will Esmerlyn Valdez win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will A.J. Ewing win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Joshua Baez win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2026-12-19
Will Andrew Painter win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Robby Snelling win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Jett Williams win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Zac Veen win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2026-12-19
Will Ryan Waldschmidt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Bubba Chandler win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Didier Fuentes win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Rhett Lowder win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Justin Crawford win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Moises Ballesteros win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2026-12-19
Will Jonah Tong win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Charlie Condon win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Logan Henderson win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes	Held	506.416	2.08¢	0.05¢	$0.25	-$10.29	-97.6%	2027-01-01
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	30	96.29¢	95.55¢	$28.66	-$10.82	-0.8%	2027-01-01
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Yes	Held	160.76	9.78¢	5¢	$8.04	-$11.06	-48.9%	2026-10-25
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	73.7829	5.8¢	0.25¢	$0.18	-$11.77	-95.7%	2026-10-19
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	29	99.1¢	99.15¢	$28.75	-$11.96	+0.1%	2027-01-01
Will C9 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	424.3499	3.22¢	0.25¢	$1.06	-$12.63	-92.2%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? No	Held	99.2315	97.03¢	98.85¢	$98.09	-$13.10	+1.9%	2026-10-19
Will WBG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	330.3499	3.22¢	0.05¢	$0.17	-$13.43	-98.4%	2026-12-31
Will GAM be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	374.3499	3.22¢	0.05¢	$0.19	-$13.45	-98.5%	2027-01-15
Will CFO be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes	Held	424.3499	3.22¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$13.48	-98.5%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.84	99.59¢	100¢	$0.84	-$13.59	+0.4%	2026-10-06
Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	367.1412	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.55	-$13.83	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	606.9512	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.91	-$13.95	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Hegseth be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	600.3012	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.90	-$13.95	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	632.7312	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.95	-$13.97	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	640.3012	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.96	-$13.97	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	650.3012	2.29¢	0.15¢	$0.98	-$13.97	-93.5%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.84	99.79¢	100¢	$0.84	-$14.30	+0.2%	2026-10-06
Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Held	104.3712	2.29¢	0.1¢	$0.10	-$14.30	-95.6%	2026-12-31
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	2,909.6849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.45	-$14.94	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	686.9273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.34	-$15.01	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8383	97.12¢	100¢	$0.84	-$15.56	+3.0%	2026-10-16
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? No	Held	4.5392	89.08¢	88¢	$3.99	-$18.27	-1.2%	2026-10-20
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	87.6592	4.46¢	0.7¢	$0.61	-$18.29	-84.3%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.1057	96.9¢	100¢	$0.11	-$19.86	+3.1%	2026-10-05
Will Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$21.63	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$22.22	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,251.8273	1.8¢	0.05¢	$0.63	-$22.32	-97.2%	2026-10-05
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	87.6614	4.46¢	0.9¢	$0.79	-$24.69	-79.8%	2027-01-01
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%? Yes	Held	280.0079	4.72¢	0.65¢	$1.82	-$26.39	-86.2%	2026-10-20
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	2,319.9968	0.83¢	0.05¢	$1.16	-$26.80	-94.0%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.8383	99.3¢	100¢	$0.84	-$26.82	+0.7%	2026-10-16
Will Concepción Sánchez González win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? Yes	Held	555.6598	2.43¢	0.25¢	$1.39	-$30.47	-89.7%	2027-06-07
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	332.5968	0.92¢	0.05¢	$0.17	-$30.70	-94.6%	2026-12-31
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	629.4068	0.95¢	0.05¢	$0.31	-$30.82	-94.8%	2026-12-31
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,014.5968	0.8¢	0.05¢	$0.51	-$31.02	-93.8%	2026-12-31
Will Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,627.8353	1.9¢	0.05¢	$0.81	-$31.04	-97.4%	2026-10-05
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,922.8868	0.72¢	0.05¢	$0.96	-$31.46	-93.1%	2026-12-31
Will Yehude Simón Munaro win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	724.0773	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.36	-$31.59	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	2,319.9968	0.83¢	0.05¢	$1.16	-$31.66	-94.0%	2027-01-02
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	2,319.9968	0.83¢	0.05¢	$1.16	-$31.66	-94.0%	2026-12-31
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	2,319.9968	0.83¢	0.05¢	$1.16	-$31.68	-94.0%	2027-01-02
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	3,440.5168	0.98¢	0.05¢	$1.72	-$32.20	-94.9%	2026-12-31
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,217.0456	2.71¢	0.05¢	$0.61	-$32.41	-98.2%	2026-11-01
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,217.0456	2.71¢	0.05¢	$0.61	-$32.41	-98.2%	2026-11-01
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,217.0456	2.71¢	0.05¢	$0.61	-$32.41	-98.2%	2026-11-01
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,217.0456	2.71¢	0.05¢	$0.61	-$32.41	-98.2%	2026-11-01
Will Huang Kuo-chang win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes	Held	1,456.6433	2.28¢	0.05¢	$0.73	-$32.54	-97.8%	2026-11-29
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%? Yes	Held	280.0018	4.72¢	0.55¢	$1.54	-$32.55	-88.4%	2026-10-20
Will Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.15	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Jessica Viviana Linares Romero win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,597.494	1.91¢	0.05¢	$0.80	-$33.20	-97.4%	2026-10-05
Will Flor de María Hurtado Valdez win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.834	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.38	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.39	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Segundo Valdez Zavala win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.46	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Santiago Rosendo Abarca León win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.46	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Rubén José Ramírez Mateo win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.46	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.46	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Samir Frank Quispe Caballero win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,053.1273	2.03¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$33.87	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.88	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will Sandro Caller Gutiérrez win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes	Held	1,031.8273	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$33.90	-97.5%	2026-10-05
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes	Held	1,304	2.74¢	0.05¢	$0.65	-$35.10	-98.2%	2026-11-29
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes	Held	4.8238	6.78¢	10.55¢	$0.51	-$36.90	+55.5%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	483	7.69¢	0.05¢	$0.24	-$36.91	-99.3%	2026-11-04
Will Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? Yes	Held	1,581.9498	2.43¢	0.15¢	$2.37	-$37.30	-93.8%	2027-06-07
Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes	Held	1,955.1349	2¢	0.05¢	$0.98	-$38.28	-97.5%	2026-10-25
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$39.10	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	10.019	1.88¢	3.4¢	$0.34	-$40.66	+80.2%	2026-10-25
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$42.87	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? Yes	Held	1,827.6898	2.44¢	0.15¢	$2.74	-$45.03	-93.9%	2027-06-07
Will Auxerre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Le Mans win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Brest win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Angers win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Lorient win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Le Havre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes	Held	1,066.9982	4.37¢	0.05¢	$0.53	-$46.13	-98.9%	2027-06-15
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$47.30	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$48.95	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	204.0014	9.87¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$49.41	-99.5%	2026-10-19
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$51.28	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$51.28	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$51.28	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No	Held	14.2257	99.69¢	99.7¢	$14.18	-$51.77	0.0%	2028-01-01
Will Raymundo Vázquez Conchas win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? Yes	Held	2,156.4398	2.45¢	0.15¢	$3.23	-$52.87	-93.9%	2027-06-07
Will Héctor Bernardo Paredes Mora win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? Yes	Held	2,180.5198	2.45¢	0.15¢	$3.27	-$52.88	-93.9%	2027-06-07
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	30.0084	99.36¢	99.1¢	$29.74	-$53.09	-0.3%	2027-01-01
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	4,841.56	0.78¢	0.05¢	$2.42	-$53.39	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? No	Held	30.0084	98.9¢	99.3¢	$29.80	-$56.07	+0.4%	2027-01-01
Jonathan Bailey announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	4,001.5962	1.54¢	0.1¢	$4.00	-$57.65	-93.5%	2027-01-01
Tom Blyth announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	1,311.2387	1.54¢	0.05¢	$0.66	-$58.34	-96.8%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? No	Held	73.7815	99.56¢	99.75¢	$73.60	-$59.36	+0.2%	2026-10-19
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$59.70	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,049.5849	1.98¢	0.05¢	$1.52	-$59.91	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	3,356.4703	1.88¢	0.05¢	$1.68	-$61.76	-97.4%	2027-02-01
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Held	3,356.4703	1.88¢	0.05¢	$1.68	-$61.76	-97.4%	2027-02-01
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	1,322.1482	2.04¢	0.05¢	$0.66	-$63.96	-97.6%	2028-01-01
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7396	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$65.39	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	1,815.2349	1.95¢	0.05¢	$0.91	-$66.65	-97.4%	2026-12-31
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$66.68	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$66.86	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.22	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,054.2349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.55	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$67.55	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	0.9034	99.3¢	99.75¢	$0.90	-$67.72	+0.4%	2026-10-28
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,049.5849	1.98¢	0.05¢	$1.52	-$67.81	-97.5%	2026-12-31
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.81	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$67.85	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Nicolae Ciucă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.88	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.90	-97.5%	2026-12-31
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$67.92	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,071.7349	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.54	-$67.99	-97.5%	2028-01-01
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes	Held	3,067.0849	1.99¢	0.05¢	$1.53	-$68.28	-97.5%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.6175	96.27¢	100¢	$0.62	-$68.75	+3.9%	2026-10-14
Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes	Held	4,636.4009	1.54¢	0.05¢	$2.32	-$69.50	-96.8%	2027-10-24
Will Nicolás del Caño win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes	Held	4,636.4009	1.54¢	0.05¢	$2.32	-$69.50	-96.8%	2027-10-24
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	400.5187	1.56¢	0.1¢	$0.40	-$70.07	-93.6%	2027-01-01
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes	Held	4,664.5887	1.61¢	0.05¢	$2.33	-$72.83	-96.9%	2027-01-01
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	57.5108	4.29¢	0.85¢	$0.49	-$79.60	-80.2%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	812.7714	8.45¢	0.05¢	$0.41	-$82.69	-99.4%	2026-10-19
Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,867.0328	2.19¢	0.05¢	$1.93	-$83.00	-97.7%	2026-10-27
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	861.5015	8.54¢	0.05¢	$0.43	-$86.92	-99.4%	2026-10-19
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	895.5015	8.6¢	0.05¢	$0.45	-$89.19	-99.4%	2026-10-19
Will Wales win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes	Held	1,772.0839	5.13¢	0.05¢	$0.89	-$90.12	-99.0%	2027-06-14
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Held	29.0108	4.54¢	2.5¢	$0.73	-$91.12	-45.0%	2027-01-01
Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$93.37	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$93.37	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Held	262	0.78¢	0.05¢	$0.13	-$93.37	-93.6%	2027-04-19
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? Yes	Held	941.9514	8.66¢	0.05¢	$0.47	-$93.82	-99.4%	2026-10-19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	11.0065	8.43¢	8.4¢	$0.92	-$94.99	-0.4%	2028-01-01
Will Elche win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	2,193.0132	2.96¢	0.05¢	$1.10	-$100.19	-98.3%	2027-06-15
Will Málaga win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	2,193.0132	2.96¢	0.05¢	$1.10	-$100.30	-98.3%	2027-06-15
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 180m and 190m by October 31? Yes	Held	1,106.3382	9.33¢	0.05¢	$0.55	-$111.50	-99.5%	2026-10-31
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be at least 200m by October 31? Yes	Held	1,126.3382	9.36¢	0.05¢	$0.56	-$111.51	-99.5%	2026-10-31
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 190m and 200m by October 31? Yes	Held	1,231.3382	9.1¢	0.05¢	$0.62	-$111.56	-99.5%	2026-10-31
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No	Held	10.019	99.78¢	96.6¢	$9.68	-$112.91	-3.2%	2026-10-25
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	422.0315	18.72¢	0.05¢	$0.21	-$116.19	-99.7%	2026-10-30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	71.5496	8.89¢	1.9¢	$1.36	-$119.81	-78.7%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	17.4878	8.54¢	3.9¢	$0.68	-$121.04	-54.3%	2028-01-01
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%? Yes	Held	908.6	6.68¢	0.05¢	$0.45	-$129.20	-99.3%	2027-01-31
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	3,165	1.88¢	0.05¢	$1.58	-$129.79	-97.3%	2026-10-25
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No	Held	10.026	99.79¢	99.3¢	$9.96	-$138.82	-0.5%	2026-10-25
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	17.4921	8.54¢	5.5¢	$0.96	-$155.91	-35.6%	2028-01-01
Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes	Held	1,541.9934	1.88¢	0.1¢	$1.54	-$158.70	-94.7%	2026-10-25
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	859.8615	19.22¢	0.05¢	$0.43	-$184.48	-99.7%	2026-10-30
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$188.77	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	2,034.9957	3.35¢	0.05¢	$1.02	-$202.16	-98.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes	Held	4.1795	16.24¢	6.25¢	$0.26	-$212.90	-61.5%	2026-10-31
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	20.7761	99.05¢	99.65¢	$20.70	-$218.61	+0.6%	2027-01-01
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$223.52	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$223.72	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$228.90	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$228.93	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$228.93	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	15,232.4391	2.21¢	0.05¢	$7.62	-$230.15	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	15,524.4391	2.21¢	0.05¢	$7.76	-$230.28	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	8,929.3147	2.49¢	0.05¢	$4.46	-$233.50	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Held	8,021.9733	3.29¢	0.05¢	$4.01	-$260.83	-98.5%	2027-06-15
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	8,549.1247	2.49¢	0.05¢	$4.27	-$267.57	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	8,549.1247	2.49¢	0.05¢	$4.27	-$267.57	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	8,549.1247	2.49¢	0.05¢	$4.27	-$267.57	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	14,127.6801	1.89¢	0.05¢	$7.06	-$272.40	-97.4%	2026-10-28
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	14,127.6801	1.89¢	0.05¢	$7.06	-$272.85	-97.4%	2026-10-28
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Held	14,127.6801	1.89¢	0.05¢	$7.06	-$272.85	-97.4%	2026-10-28
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.07	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Held	11,170.7847	2.45¢	0.05¢	$5.59	-$275.35	-98.0%	2026-10-26
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,651.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$290.64	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,651.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$290.64	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,492.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$296.30	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Held	7,880.9776	3.88¢	0.05¢	$3.94	-$304.26	-98.7%	2027-02-01
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	857	1.72¢	0.05¢	$0.43	-$310.70	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,651.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$319.60	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,651.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$319.60	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,547.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.27	-$320.06	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,651.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$320.58	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,661.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$320.58	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,661.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$320.58	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes	Held	18,661.15	1.72¢	0.05¢	$9.33	-$320.58	-97.1%	2028-04-01
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	6,237.2794	2.63¢	0.05¢	$3.12	-$342.91	-98.1%	2026-09-14
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	7,793.2694	2.66¢	0.05¢	$3.90	-$343.61	-98.1%	2026-09-14
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	7,793.2694	2.66¢	0.05¢	$3.90	-$343.61	-98.1%	2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	37.4864	98.01¢	98.1¢	$36.77	-$344.88	+0.1%	2028-01-01
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$361.61	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	11.0122	93.79¢	91.6¢	$10.09	-$364.53	-2.3%	2028-01-01
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$366.27	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No	Held	17.4927	96.62¢	96.1¢	$16.81	-$374.47	-0.5%	2028-01-01
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$377.54	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$377.57	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	12,871.9031	1.06¢	0.05¢	$6.44	-$377.96	-95.3%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Held	17.4967	97.48¢	94.5¢	$16.53	-$379.28	-3.1%	2028-01-01
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$399.87	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$416.53	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$456.80	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,508.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.25	-$456.80	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$456.83	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$456.83	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Held	12,554.4491	2.21¢	0.05¢	$6.28	-$456.83	-97.7%	2026-11-04
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes	Held	1,086.7549	3.13¢	0.05¢	$0.54	-$494.12	-98.4%	2026-11-29
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	10,446.6005	1.05¢	0.05¢	$5.22	-$508.61	-95.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? Yes	Held	1,982.7821	20.22¢	0.1¢	$1.98	-$521.97	-99.5%	2026-12-10
Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? Yes	Held	466.0421	20.22¢	0.1¢	$0.47	-$522.43	-99.5%	2026-12-10
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	16,378.1243	2.99¢	0.05¢	$8.19	-$528.52	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	4,773.2443	2.99¢	0.05¢	$2.39	-$547.98	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	10,446.6031	1.05¢	0.05¢	$5.22	-$557.42	-95.3%	2027-01-01
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,729.0243	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.36	-$559.76	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,729.0143	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.36	-$559.77	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,777.1543	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.39	-$559.79	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	18,994.2943	2.99¢	0.05¢	$9.50	-$559.88	-98.3%	2026-10-31
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	16,269.9331	1.07¢	0.05¢	$8.13	-$569.76	-95.3%	2026-10-31
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	16,269.9331	1.07¢	0.05¢	$8.13	-$573.79	-95.3%	2026-10-31
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	16,269.9331	1.07¢	0.05¢	$8.13	-$588.28	-95.3%	2027-01-01
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Held	15,702.9033	1.07¢	0.05¢	$7.85	-$598.24	-95.4%	2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	26,965.5273	1.73¢	0.05¢	$13.48	-$613.21	-97.1%	2027-01-01
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	26,965.5273	1.73¢	0.05¢	$13.48	-$631.21	-97.1%	2026-12-31
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	26,965.5273	1.73¢	0.05¢	$13.48	-$631.64	-97.1%	2026-12-31
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	26,965.5273	1.73¢	0.05¢	$13.48	-$631.64	-97.1%	2027-01-01
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	24,269.5273	1.73¢	0.05¢	$12.13	-$641.77	-97.1%	2026-12-31
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win Worlds 2026? Yes	Held	12,160.9356	4.98¢	0.05¢	$6.08	-$723.22	-99.0%	2026-11-29
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Held	8.7865	99.37¢	99.85¢	$8.77	-$789.34	+0.5%	2027-01-01
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	25,016.69	2.58¢	0.1¢	$25.02	-$997.96	-96.1%	2026-10-28
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Held	8,269.11	2.58¢	0.1¢	$8.27	-$1.2K	-96.1%	2026-10-28
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 100 and 120 million views on week 1? Yes	Held	1,561.7698	12.62¢	0.05¢	$0.78	-$1.3K	-99.6%	2026-10-23
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 120 and 140 million views on week 1? Yes	Held	1,641.6571	12.51¢	0.05¢	$0.82	-$1.3K	-99.6%	2026-10-23
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	5,464.6929	16.06¢	0.05¢	$2.73	-$1.8K	-99.7%	2026-10-30
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	4,277.9229	16.08¢	0.05¢	$2.14	-$1.8K	-99.7%	2026-10-30
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	10,843.1429	15.01¢	0.05¢	$5.42	-$1.8K	-99.7%	2026-10-30

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