Wallet ledger

0x5040…96cf

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

488

Realized PnL

$2.5K

Win rate

25%

Realized edge

+0.012

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.012 across 488 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.02, +0.05]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (36 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? Yes	Open	250	9¢	$27	+126%	2026-09-02
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes	Open	160	21¢	$25	+75%	2026-12-31
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? No	Open	96	18¢	$19	+107%	2026-09-02
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	350	12¢	$15	+36%	2027-07-01
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31? Yes	Open	136	21¢	$14	+49%	2026-09-01
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	128	27¢	$11	+31%	2026-10-01
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31? Yes	Open	100	55¢	$9	+16%	2026-10-31
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	100	44¢	$7	+15%	1970-01-01
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30? Yes	Open	103	53¢	$6	+11%	2026-10-01
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	100	83¢	$6	+7%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Open	100	83¢	$6	+7%	2026-11-03
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	120	11¢	$5	+41%	2026-09-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	672	0¢	$5	+233%	2026-09-30
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes	Open	150	27¢	$4	+11%	2026-01-31
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	100	4¢	$4	+114%	2026-08-31
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	35	46¢	$3	+17%	2026-08-28
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	40	48¢	$2	+13%	2026-08-25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	300	12¢	$2	+4%	2026-09-08
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? Yes	Open	255	5¢	$1	+8%	2026-08-23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Open	100	32¢	$1	+2%	2026-12-31
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No	Open	145	95¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes	Open	250	17¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	353	0¢	$0	+17%	2026-09-30
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	5	32¢	$0	+8%	2026-09-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	209	1¢	$0	+5%	2026-09-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes	Open	400	6¢	$0	0%	2026-09-30
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? Yes	Open	500	1¢	-$2	-30%	2026-08-23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	150	26¢	-$2	-5%	2026-10-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Yes	Open	98	20¢	-$2	-10%	2026-09-15
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	50	43¢	-$2	-9%	2026-09-16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	420	3¢	-$3	-19%	2026-09-01
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	1,500	1¢	-$3	-22%	2026-10-31
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	86	7¢	-$4	-66%	2026-08-25
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	150	22¢	-$5	-16%	2026-10-01
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes	Open	400	6¢	-$7	-27%	2026-12-31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? Yes	Open	200	6¢	-$7	-57%	2026-09-01

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