Wallet ledger

0x4d4d…ac86

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

851

Realized PnL

-$68

Win rate

60%

Realized edge

-0.012

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.012 across 851 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.04, +0.01]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (101 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 23? Yes	Open	6	16¢	$5	+525%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 23? Yes	Open	8	52¢	$4	+94%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 23? No	Open	4	45¢	$2	+123%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23? Yes	Open	3	29¢	$2	+244%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 23? No	Open	5	60¢	$2	+66%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 24? Yes	Open	5	14¢	$2	+271%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 24? No	Open	3	61¢	$1	+63%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 23? No	Open	2	45¢	$1	+120%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 23? Yes	Open	2	48¢	$1	+108%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 23? No	Open	4	74¢	$1	+35%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 24? Yes	Open	6	32¢	$1	+48%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 24? Yes	Open	9	22¢	$1	+48%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 23? No	Open	2	52¢	$1	+92%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 24? Yes	Open	6	35¢	$1	+45%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 23? No	Open	3	73¢	$1	+37%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 23? No	Open	2	58¢	$1	+72%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 23? No	Open	4	81¢	$1	+23%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 23? Yes	Open	2	60¢	$1	+67%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on August 24? Yes	Open	10	10¢	$1	+55%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 24? No	Open	3	71¢	$0	+25%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 23? No	Open	4	90¢	$0	+11%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 24? No	Open	4	89¢	$0	+10%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 24? No	Open	5	88¢	$0	+9%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 23? No	Open	3	89¢	$0	+12%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24? No	Open	3	80¢	$0	+16%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 23? No	Open	1	77¢	$0	+30%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 23? No	Open	3	91¢	$0	+9%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 23? No	Open	1	78¢	$0	+28%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 24? No	Open	1	70¢	$0	+26%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 24? No	Open	5	78¢	$0	+6%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 24? No	Open	5	85¢	$0	+6%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 24? Yes	Open	5	22¢	$0	+20%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 23? No	Open	1	83¢	$0	+20%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 23? No	Open	1	87¢	$0	+15%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25? Yes	Open	4	26¢	$0	+10%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 24? No	Open	2	88¢	$0	+5%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 25? Yes	Open	3	31¢	$0	+8%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 24? No	Open	6	69¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 24? No	Open	4	71¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 24? No	Open	1	81¢	$0	+6%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 24? No	Open	1	67¢	$0	+6%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 25? Yes	Open	2	44¢	$0	+6%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25? No	Open	2	81¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25? No	Open	2	64¢	$0	+3%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 24? Yes	Open	5	39¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 25? No	Open	1	79¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 25? No	Open	1	92¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 24? Yes	Open	4	46¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on August 24? No	Open	1	90¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 25? No	Open	1	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	3	71¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 24? No	Open	4	91¢	$0	0%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25? No	Open	1	87¢	$0	0%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 25? No	Open	1	90¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 24? No	Open	1	75¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 24? No	Open	2	83¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 25? No	Open	1	91¢	-$0	-3%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 25? No	Open	2	86¢	-$0	-2%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	1	67¢	-$0	-4%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 25? Yes	Open	4	24¢	-$0	-6%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 25? No	Open	1	91¢	-$0	-9%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 24? Yes	Open	11	38¢	-$0	-3%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 25? Yes	Open	2	51¢	-$0	-12%	2026-08-25
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	1	93¢	-$0	-12%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	1	83¢	-$0	-19%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 24? No	Open	5	86¢	-$0	-5%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 24? No	Open	1	91¢	-$0	-22%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 24? Yes	Open	12	32¢	-$0	-8%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 24? No	Open	5	77¢	-$0	-8%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 24? Yes	Open	4	47¢	-$0	-19%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 24? Yes	Open	11	9¢	-$0	-44%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 24? No	Open	2	41¢	-$0	-45%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 24? Yes	Open	10	39¢	-$0	-12%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 24? Yes	Open	8	24¢	-$1	-33%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24? No	Open	5	87¢	-$1	-17%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on August 24? Yes	Open	11	9¢	-$1	-67%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 24? Yes	Open	10	29¢	-$1	-23%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 24? Yes	Open	12	35¢	-$1	-18%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 23? Yes	Open	10	8¢	-$1	-99%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 24? No	Open	7	60¢	-$1	-21%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 24? Yes	Open	10	10¢	-$1	-90%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 24? No	Open	5	78¢	-$1	-23%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 23? Yes	Open	4	26¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 23? No	Open	2	51¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 23? Yes	Open	2	52¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 23? No	Open	2	66¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 23? No	Open	2	64¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 23? No	Open	1	83¢	-$1	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24? Yes	Open	9	42¢	-$1	-29%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	5	76¢	-$1	-32%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 24? No	Open	7	61¢	-$1	-34%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 24? Yes	Open	6	36¢	-$1	-71%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24? Yes	Open	12	33¢	-$2	-42%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 24? Yes	Open	14	22¢	-$2	-71%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24? No	Open	5	86¢	-$3	-69%	2026-08-24
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 23? No	Open	6	54¢	-$3	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 23? Yes	Open	11	36¢	-$4	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 23? No	Open	7	59¢	-$4	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 23? Yes	Open	11	35¢	-$4	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23? No	Open	5	79¢	-$4	-100%	2026-08-23
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 23? Yes	Open	9	44¢	-$4	-100%	2026-08-23

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