Wallet ledger

0x44c1…ebc1

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

-$1.06M

Win rate

69%

Realized edge

+0.034

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.034 across 54 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.02, +0.10]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (87 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? No	Open	58,313	42¢	$14.0K	+57%	2026-08-31
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Open	20,487	59¢	$2.5K	+21%	2026-11-03
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	85,315	22¢	$2.0K	+10%	2027-01-01
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31? Yes	Open	6,626	20¢	$729	+55%	2026-09-01
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	806	34¢	$408	+147%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	1,097	65¢	$324	+45%	2026-12-31
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	15,556	14¢	$230	+11%	2026-11-01
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	782	80¢	$151	+24%	2026-12-31
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	5,102	95¢	$145	+3%	2026-12-31
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30? Yes	Open	733	42¢	$122	+39%	2026-10-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? No	Open	289	76¢	$70	+32%	2026-08-04
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes	Open	1,032	27¢	$57	+20%	2026-12-31
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	974	6¢	$49	+83%	2026-12-31
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No	Open	1,537	93¢	$46	+3%	2026-11-03
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%? No	Open	173	85¢	$27	+18%	2026-08-12
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? No	Open	250	92¢	$19	+8%	2026-08-04
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–1.2%? No	Open	142	91¢	$13	+10%	2026-08-12
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes	Open	589	2¢	$11	+90%	2026-11-03
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? No	Open	256	97¢	$6	+2%	2026-11-03
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.8–1%? No	Open	40	86¢	$6	+16%	2026-08-12
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No	Open	125	96¢	$4	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes	Open	30	76¢	$4	+19%	2026-09-08
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Open	22	71¢	$4	+26%	2026-12-31
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? Yes	Open	140	97¢	$3	+2%	2026-11-03
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	5	74¢	$1	+18%	2027-06-30
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? Yes	Open	8	15¢	$0	+30%	2027-01-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-04
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? Yes	Open	44	94¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Yes	Open	35	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-04
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Open	18	87¢	-$0	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Open	2	50¢	-$1	-64%	2026-12-31
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	12	18¢	-$1	-42%	2027-01-01
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? Yes	Open	7	86¢	-$1	-16%	2026-11-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? Yes	Open	24	17¢	-$1	-26%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes	Open	5	36¢	-$1	-69%	2027-01-01
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Open	42	14¢	-$2	-29%	2026-12-31
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	19¢	-$3	-80%	2026-08-31
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Yes	Open	20	32¢	-$3	-54%	2026-12-31
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? Yes	Open	30	45¢	-$4	-28%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	231	35¢	-$5	-6%	2026-10-04
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes	Open	100	15¢	-$9	-57%	2026-12-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? Yes	Open	160	15¢	-$12	-49%	2026-12-31
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes	Open	16,606	8¢	-$15	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Open	666	26¢	-$17	-10%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August? Yes	Open	53	83¢	-$20	-45%	2026-08-31
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Open	365	44¢	-$29	-18%	2026-12-31
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No	Open	207	88¢	-$36	-20%	2026-12-31
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	75	91¢	-$44	-64%	2027-01-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes	Open	639	29¢	-$59	-32%	2026-12-31
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes	Open	866	20¢	-$59	-34%	2027-01-01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes	Open	264	43¢	-$68	-59%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	500	21¢	-$73	-68%	1970-01-01
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes	Open	3,003	13¢	-$79	-20%	2026-12-31
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes	Open	3,334	8¢	-$79	-28%	2026-12-31
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes	Open	2,044	32¢	-$83	-13%	2026-12-31
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Open	273	61¢	-$97	-58%	2026-12-31
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? Yes	Open	692	15¢	-$101	-100%	2026-08-04
Will Trump say "Tehran" in August? Yes	Open	185	84¢	-$104	-67%	2026-08-31
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes	Open	2,656	7¢	-$108	-60%	1970-01-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? Yes	Open	906	12¢	-$109	-100%	2026-08-04
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Open	4,483	38¢	-$114	-7%	2026-12-31
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes	Open	816	29¢	-$115	-49%	2026-12-31
X banned in any European country by December 31? Yes	Open	774	30¢	-$125	-54%	2026-12-31
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes	Open	252	70¢	-$131	-75%	2027-01-03
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes	Open	2,457	20¢	-$146	-30%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes	Open	2,673	12¢	-$160	-48%	2026-12-31
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31? Yes	Open	1,168	22¢	-$228	-89%	2026-09-01
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	3,882	86¢	-$277	-8%	2026-06-16
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,856	31¢	-$321	-56%	2027-01-01
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes	Open	7,961	82¢	-$341	-5%	1970-01-01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Open	4,221	34¢	-$391	-27%	2026-12-31
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes	Open	3,747	18¢	-$445	-65%	2026-12-31
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? Yes	Open	943	52¢	-$491	-99%	2026-08-04
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? Yes	Open	4,444	13¢	-$535	-95%	2026-09-01
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes	Open	12,208	8¢	-$626	-63%	2026-12-31
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes	Open	5,963	22¢	-$705	-53%	2026-12-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Open	4,353	41¢	-$1.0K	-57%	2026-12-31
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes	Open	4,351	57¢	-$1.4K	-57%	2027-01-01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes	Open	6,388	39¢	-$1.6K	-63%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	2,943	67¢	-$1.6K	-83%	2026-12-31
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? Yes	Open	31,164	71¢	-$2.3K	-10%	2026-08-31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	16,524	15¢	-$2.4K	-98%	2026-09-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes	Open	12,406	40¢	-$2.7K	-54%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes	Open	30,089	21¢	-$4.3K	-69%	2026-10-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes	Open	28,947	24¢	-$4.7K	-68%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	26,943	26¢	-$6.9K	-99%	2026-09-01
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	30,939	54¢	-$7.4K	-44%	2026-08-11

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