Wallet positions

0x44c1…ebc1

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

216

Realized PnL

-$190.7K

Win rate

60.2%

Realized edge

-2.5 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -2.5 pp across 216 resolved positions, 95% CI [-6.3, +0.8], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

266 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:20:10 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No	Held	1,438,080.54	73.99¢	90.5¢	$1.30M	$212.2K	+22.3%	2028-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes	Held	0.2186	18.47¢	15.5¢	$0.03	$120.0K	-16.1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Held	0.2918	79.44¢	97.85¢	$0.29	$41.6K	+23.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Redeemable	15,899.7483	12.1¢	0¢	$0.00	$14.1K	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No	Held	0.1373	82.49¢	94.5¢	$0.13	$5.2K	+14.5%	2027-01-01
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? Yes	Held	0.1785	35.99¢	28.5¢	$0.05	$4.9K	-20.8%	2027-02-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No	Redeemable	9,194.0001	18.58¢	0¢	$0.00	$3.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No	Held	0.2	95¢	98.75¢	$0.20	$2.4K	+3.9%	2027-01-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes	Held	0.1339	25.12¢	28.5¢	$0.04	$2.1K	+13.1%	2026-11-04
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Held	30.2101	59.11¢	71.5¢	$21.60	$2.1K	+21.0%	2026-11-04
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No	Held	0.19	10¢	20.5¢	$0.04	$2.0K	+104.7%	2026-09-14
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	0.1951	37.69¢	58.25¢	$0.11	$1.6K	+54.4%	2026-06-03
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes	Held	12,207.5788	8.18¢	2.5¢	$305.19	$1.2K	-69.4%	2027-01-01
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No	Redeemable	0.2228	11.46¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.1K	-99.9%	2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	85,315.3317	22.19¢	22.5¢	$19.2K	$985.81	+1.4%	2027-01-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No	Held	30,955.1872	41.75¢	41.75¢	$12.9K	$957.35	-0.0%	2026-06-03
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes	Held	100.2999	15¢	5.5¢	$5.52	$830.44	-63.3%	2027-01-01
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes	Held	0.2397	3.83¢	1.25¢	<$0.01	$769.30	-67.4%	2027-01-01
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Held	805.67	34.36¢	98.65¢	$794.79	$517.93	+187.1%	2027-01-01
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes	Held	588.7839	1.99¢	2.55¢	$15.01	$449.09	+27.5%	2026-11-04
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? No	Redeemable	1,988.83	7¢	0¢	$0.00	$433.65	-100.0%	2026-06-09
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	24,999.46	25¢	26.5¢	$6.6K	$374.99	+6.0%	2026-11-04
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No	Held	0.15	69.12¢	99.85¢	$0.15	$374.73	+44.4%	2027-03-02
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	0.2113	47¢	63.5¢	$0.13	$348.98	+35.0%	2026-11-04
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes	Held	7.97	2¢	5.5¢	$0.44	$232.85	+175.0%	2027-01-01
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes	Held	300.33	34.33¢	61¢	$183.20	$201.98	+77.6%	2027-01-01
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Held	793.7388	16.84¢	26.5¢	$210.34	$131.89	+57.3%	2028-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Held	0.25	46.99¢	63.5¢	$0.16	$129.35	+35.1%	2026-11-04
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31? Yes	Held	826.7	59.85¢	74.5¢	$615.89	$121.04	+24.5%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	909.72	82.99¢	95.55¢	$869.24	$114.23	+15.1%	2026-10-31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Held	1.757	49.93¢	11.95¢	$0.21	$105.89	-76.1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes	Held	3,334.043	8.37¢	3.65¢	$121.69	$104.57	-56.4%	2027-01-01
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes	Redeemable	0.1987	83.19¢	100¢	$0.20	$101.46	+20.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,065.98	80¢	89.5¢	$954.05	$101.27	+11.9%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	0.3704	78.99¢	91.5¢	$0.34	$87.66	+15.8%	2026-11-04
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes	Held	0.27	4.16¢	6.7¢	$0.02	$65.49	+59.6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	0.1406	78.99¢	91.5¢	$0.13	$54.08	+15.8%	2026-11-04
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? No	Held	7,289.23	21.99¢	22.5¢	$1.6K	$36.45	+2.3%	2026-11-04
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes	Held	115.89	33.57¢	54.5¢	$63.16	$31.84	+62.3%	2027-12-31
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Held	0.19	93.09¢	95.85¢	$0.18	$31.09	+2.9%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	0.3832	35¢	83.95¢	$0.32	$28.10	+139.8%	2026-10-05
EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? Yes	Held	885.39	15.79¢	18.5¢	$163.80	$23.91	+17.1%	2027-01-01
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? Yes	Redeemable	0.18	54.4¢	100¢	$0.18	$19.27	+83.7%	2026-11-01
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No	Held	138.76	80¢	89.5¢	$124.19	$13.18	+11.9%	2026-11-04
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? No	Held	0.23	55.33¢	90.5¢	$0.21	$12.86	+63.5%	2027-01-01
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? Yes	Held	100	81¢	91.5¢	$91.50	$10.50	+13.0%	2027-01-01
Megaquake by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	0.27	21.65¢	0¢	$0.00	$8.41	-99.9%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	165	96.27¢	99.95¢	$164.92	$6.07	+3.8%	2026-10-31
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Held	100	40.5¢	45.95¢	$45.95	$5.45	+13.5%	2027-01-02
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No	Held	21.9	71¢	92.5¢	$20.26	$4.71	+30.3%	2027-01-01
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? Yes	Held	43.82	93.99¢	99¢	$43.38	$2.19	+5.3%	2026-11-04
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	262.3742	41¢	41.5¢	$108.89	$1.31	+1.2%	2026-06-03
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? Yes	Held	8	15¢	29¢	$2.32	$1.12	+93.3%	2027-01-01
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No	Held	124.75	95.88¢	96.7¢	$120.63	$1.01	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	5	74¢	82.5¢	$4.13	$0.42	+11.5%	2027-07-01
Will Donald Trump announce Sean O'Brien as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	6,216.21	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	8,446.0901	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	6,399.6701	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Johnny C. Taylor Jr. as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	9,210.9	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Vince Micone as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	6,502.13	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Bryan Slater as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	5,864.07	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Glenn Youngkin as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	5,524.2	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes	Redeemable	7,519.27	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	—
Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	14.99	3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.45	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid	Redeemable	5	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.55	-100.0%	2026-08-21
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	12	18¢	13¢	$1.56	-$0.60	-27.8%	2027-01-01
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,855.7857	30.77¢	30.5¢	$566.01	-$0.73	-0.9%	2027-01-01
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	5	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.80	-100.0%	2026-07-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? Yes	Held	23.78	16.99¢	11.5¢	$2.73	-$1.31	-32.4%	2027-01-01
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? Yes	Redeemable	6.49	19.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.31	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes	Held	5	36¢	8.5¢	$0.42	-$1.38	-76.4%	2027-01-01
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Held	42	14.3¢	10.95¢	$4.60	-$1.41	-23.4%	2027-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by September 17, 2026? No	Redeemable	29.8311	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.49	-100.0%	2026-09-17
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m? Yes	Redeemable	10	15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.50	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	18.5	11.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.30	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%? Yes	Redeemable	19.97	15.63¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.63	-100.0%	2026-05-26
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? Yes	Held	30	45¢	35.5¢	$10.65	-$2.85	-21.1%	2027-01-01
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	20	19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.80	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Held	17.77	86.99¢	65¢	$11.55	-$3.91	-25.3%	2028-01-01
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6? Yes	Redeemable	35.3	10.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.02	-100.0%	2026-08-07
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year? Yes	Redeemable	176.29	2.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.44	-100.0%	2026-10-31
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Yes	Held	19.77	31.65¢	7¢	$1.38	-$4.87	-77.9%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	88.04	79.23¢	73.5¢	$64.71	-$5.05	-7.2%	2026-10-31
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No	Redeemable	0.24	51.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.96	-99.9%	—
Will "Japan" be in the headlines this week? Yes	Held	50	50¢	35.5¢	$17.75	-$7.25	-29.0%	2026-10-11
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Redeemable	8.78	83.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.41	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	4,444.2135	12.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.50	-100.0%	2026-09-01
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? No	Redeemable	280	2.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.93	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	8.99	87.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.95	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026? Yes	Redeemable	62.96	12.81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.07	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Yes	Redeemable	41	19.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.35	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? Yes	Redeemable	20	47.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.70	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026? Yes	Redeemable	52.31	18.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.72	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	89.85	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.88	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Yes	Redeemable	10,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-06-08
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	132.76	7.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.50	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%? Yes	Redeemable	49.87	20.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.80	-100.0%	2026-05-26
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	340.5	3.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.90	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No	Held	145.51	51¢	43.5¢	$63.30	-$10.91	-14.7%	2026-11-16
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	40.27	28.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.01	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Yes	Redeemable	20	61¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.39	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? No	Redeemable	15	85.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.89	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? Yes	Redeemable	40.1	37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$14.84	-100.0%	2026-07-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? Yes	Held	160	15.16¢	5.85¢	$9.36	-$14.91	-61.4%	2027-01-01
Will Jon Hansen and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election? Yes	Redeemable	107.22	14.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.32	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will Toby Doeden and Jon Hansen advance to the South Dakota Republican Primary runoff election? Yes	Redeemable	107.22	14.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.32	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will Jon Hansen and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election? Yes	Redeemable	107.22	14.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.32	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? No	Redeemable	25.92	58.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.54	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	0.2561	49.53¢	64.5¢	$0.17	-$16.61	+30.2%	2026-11-04
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Yes	Redeemable	169.13	9.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.79	-100.0%	2026-06-29
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m? Yes	Redeemable	961.79	1.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.44	-100.0%	2026-08-02
Will Geno Ploeger be the runner-up of AGT Season 21? No	Redeemable	20,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 13, 2026? No	Redeemable	271.65	7.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.50	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	51.9501	39.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.51	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Trump say "Alaska" this week? No	Redeemable	750.9	2.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$22.59	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Redeemable	23,457.46	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$23.46	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2? Yes	Redeemable	283.18	9.21¢	0¢	$0.00	-$27.27	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No	Held	206.98	87.83¢	74¢	$153.17	-$28.64	-15.8%	2027-01-01
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	75	91¢	52.5¢	$39.38	-$28.88	-42.3%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	973.63	5.99¢	2.95¢	$28.72	-$29.69	-50.8%	2027-01-01
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? No	Held	0.1538	66¢	92¢	$0.14	-$31.06	+39.3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Yes	Redeemable	72.67	43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.25	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Held	0.2216	82.2¢	93.3¢	$0.21	-$31.43	+13.4%	2027-01-01
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? No	Redeemable	112	27.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$32.26	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Held	0.2119	64¢	77.5¢	$0.16	-$35.84	+21.0%	2027-01-01
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31? Yes	Held	572	14.51¢	8¢	$45.76	-$37.29	-44.9%	2026-11-01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	75.7	50.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$38.05	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	312.57	12.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$39.02	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	292.19	13.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$39.66	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	60.52	66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$39.94	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August? Yes	Redeemable	53.1	83.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$44.53	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	497.1	9.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.22	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	172.32	26.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$46.06	-100.0%	2026-08-20
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026? No	Redeemable	156.56	29.51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$47.51	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No	Redeemable	0.2	25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$48.90	-100.0%	2026-06-23
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	152.22	33.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.68	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	346.82	14.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$51.84	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	114.5	46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$52.67	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	530	9.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$52.79	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? No	Redeemable	373.68	14.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$55.83	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes	Held	866	20.36¢	13.5¢	$116.91	-$59.47	-33.7%	2027-01-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes	Held	639.22	28.7¢	19¢	$121.45	-$62.01	-33.8%	2027-01-01
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes	Held	665.66	26¢	12¢	$79.88	-$64.48	-53.8%	2027-01-01
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? No	Redeemable	125	55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$69.99	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Held	364.64	44.41¢	25¢	$91.16	-$70.81	-43.7%	2027-01-01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes	Held	264.41	43.13¢	15.5¢	$40.98	-$73.07	-64.1%	2026-12-31
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	719.01	9.9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$73.79	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? Yes	Held	219.19	34.48¢	0.05¢	$0.11	-$75.47	-99.9%	2026-10-02
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Held	1,340.46	34.91¢	29.15¢	$390.74	-$77.26	-16.5%	2027-01-01
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Under	Redeemable	205.12	37.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$78.59	-100.0%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	499.997	21.43¢	3.25¢	$16.25	-$90.92	-84.8%	2026-11-04
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes	Held	2,656.28	6.7¢	3.05¢	$81.02	-$97.08	-54.5%	2027-01-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? Yes	Redeemable	692.15	14.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$101.39	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A ZEDI Esports	Redeemable	564.53	17.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$104.11	-100.0%	2026-07-07
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 42m? Yes	Redeemable	357.23	28.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$105.24	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Yes	Redeemable	160.82	66.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$108.35	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? Yes	Redeemable	905.9	12.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$109.03	-100.0%	2026-08-04
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes	Held	7,486.32	27.02¢	25.5¢	$1.9K	-$114.08	-5.6%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	697.0405	25.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$116.13	-100.0%	2026-07-01
X banned in any European country by December 31? Yes	Held	773.54	29.61¢	14.5¢	$112.16	-$116.96	-51.0%	2027-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes	Held	997.98	29.84¢	18¢	$179.64	-$118.24	-39.7%	2027-01-01
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Held	272.58	61.17¢	17.5¢	$47.70	-$119.04	-71.4%	2027-01-01
Kash Patel out by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,261.75	10.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.01	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,094.03	3.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$144.60	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes	Held	1,500.83	16.84¢	6.5¢	$97.55	-$155.33	-61.4%	2026-11-01
Will Trump say "Tehran" in August? Yes	Redeemable	184.89	83.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$156.30	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes	Held	252.49	69.55¢	6.5¢	$16.41	-$159.20	-90.7%	2027-01-04
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes	Held	815.51	28.65¢	8.5¢	$69.32	-$164.38	-70.3%	2027-01-01
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	509.96	32.65¢	0¢	$0.00	-$166.55	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes	Held	3,002.76	13.11¢	7.5¢	$225.21	-$168.69	-42.8%	2027-01-01
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes	Redeemable	926.5769	19.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$172.56	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,014.2	16.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$174.10	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes	Redeemable	1,122.93	14.97¢	0¢	$0.00	-$175.32	-100.0%	2026-06-15
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? No	Redeemable	4,405.5084	5.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$183.37	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Yes	Redeemable	2,625.55	6.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$186.26	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Redeemable	6,426.8	2.92¢	0¢	$0.00	-$190.95	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes	Held	2,043.57	32.43¢	23.05¢	$471.04	-$191.77	-28.9%	2026-12-31
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m? No	Redeemable	1,306.78	14.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$196.34	-100.0%	2026-07-17
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? No	Redeemable	29,079.06	0.7¢	0¢	$0.00	-$211.14	-100.0%	2026-10-05
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Held	5,102.0537	94.56¢	94.5¢	$4.8K	-$211.36	-0.1%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes	Held	2,673.1347	12.48¢	4.4¢	$117.62	-$216.22	-64.8%	2027-01-01
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes	Held	2,456.52	19.94¢	8¢	$196.52	-$217.23	-59.9%	2027-01-01
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m? Yes	Redeemable	1,089.63	20.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$230.71	-100.0%	2026-06-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	575.45	40.25¢	0¢	$0.00	-$231.62	-100.0%	2026-06-19
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? No	Redeemable	363	63.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$232.44	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	1,168.48	21.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$265.08	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	0.2874	36.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$266.13	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? Yes	Redeemable	2,197.03	12.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$270.34	-100.0%	2026-06-01
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes	Redeemable	535.88	55.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$300.08	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week? Yes	Redeemable	999.9705	31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$309.99	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes	Redeemable	3,748.94	9.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$340.93	-100.0%	2026-06-22
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	3,610.48	9.29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$347.86	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes	Redeemable	1,209.7456	30.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$378.75	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No	Held	1,537.292	93.18¢	97.45¢	$1.5K	-$394.50	+4.6%	2026-11-04
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes	Redeemable	18,544.196	1.94¢	0¢	$0.00	-$426.29	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Held	4,221.39	33.75¢	22.5¢	$949.81	-$435.71	-33.3%	2027-01-01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes	Held	3,746.82	18.37¢	3¢	$112.40	-$480.35	-83.7%	2027-01-01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes	Held	16,605.85	7.59¢	4.5¢	$747.26	-$513.50	-40.7%	2027-01-01
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes	Redeemable	1,913.79	26.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$531.81	-100.0%	2026-06-23
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	1,940.98	28.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$574.67	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	15,239.66	4.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$667.54	-100.0%	2026-06-18
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	7,457.9777	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$742.45	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Held	8,788.84	34.86¢	25.5¢	$2.2K	-$767.62	-26.9%	2027-01-01
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	2,360.02	32.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$784.62	-100.0%	2026-06-30
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes	Held	37,126.0343	6.68¢	4.45¢	$1.7K	-$828.50	-33.4%	2027-01-01
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	0.2094	61.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$852.26	-99.9%	2026-05-31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	8,123.28	11.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$918.55	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,600	60.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$989.84	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No	Redeemable	277,664.4168	0.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes	Held	5,962.95	22.31¢	3.55¢	$211.68	-$1.1K	-84.1%	2027-01-01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	15,797.06	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-08-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes	Held	4,353.17	40.73¢	11.5¢	$500.61	-$1.3K	-71.8%	2027-01-01
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No	Redeemable	845.8757	32.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-02
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31? Yes	Redeemable	6,626	19.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	0.4117	84¢	79.5¢	$0.33	-$1.6K	-5.3%	2026-09-14
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes	Held	4,351.2436	56.75¢	19.5¢	$848.49	-$1.6K	-65.6%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	2,943.43	67.22¢	12¢	$353.21	-$1.6K	-82.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	8,268	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Held	0.49	88¢	97.5¢	$0.48	-$1.7K	+10.8%	2027-01-01
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? No	Redeemable	5,519.22	30.82¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	2026-11-03
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes	Redeemable	7,536.02	23.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.7K	-100.0%	2026-07-27
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Held	0.2955	73¢	94.5¢	$0.28	-$1.8K	+29.4%	2027-01-01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes	Held	6,387.96	39.24¢	8.5¢	$542.98	-$1.8K	-78.3%	2027-01-01
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m? No	Redeemable	6,710.52	31.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.2K	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No	Redeemable	3,000	77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	180,404.4628	1.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.6K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	11,489.99	24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Yes	Redeemable	6,574.22	42.27¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes	Redeemable	0.13	39.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.8K	-99.9%	2026-06-18
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	11,294.0988	28.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.9K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Redeemable	3,256.9	93.02¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.0K	-100.0%	2026-06-09
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes	Held	28,947.3914	23.68¢	5.5¢	$1.6K	-$3.0K	-76.8%	2027-01-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes	Held	12,406.3356	40.4¢	12.5¢	$1.6K	-$3.3K	-69.1%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes	Redeemable	6,247	52.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-15
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes	Redeemable	8,689.6842	41.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.7K	-100.0%	2026-06-14
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	61,404.1902	14.83¢	8.5¢	$5.2K	-$3.9K	-42.7%	2026-11-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? No	Redeemable	16,053.941	24.37¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.9K	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes	Redeemable	22,828.21	18.06¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.3K	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No	Redeemable	49,572.182	8.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? No	Redeemable	9,949.4808	44.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.5K	-100.0%	2026-07-12
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? No	Held	0.2	60.89¢	71.5¢	$0.14	-$4.6K	+17.4%	2027-02-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	25,658	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.1K	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes	Redeemable	11,633.767	29.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	126,580.62	4.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.8K	-100.0%	2026-09-16
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m? Yes	Redeemable	67,904.36	19.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m? Yes	Redeemable	30,307.835	19.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? Yes	Redeemable	32,495.16	19.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m? Yes	Redeemable	65,481.505	19.96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.1K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	30,088.71	20.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.2K	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Redeemable	35,011.1498	19.78¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes	Redeemable	12,877.65	51¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.6K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	19,457.3459	33.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.7K	-100.0%	2026-07-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	26,943.44	26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? Yes	Redeemable	2,655.88	37.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.7K	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No	Redeemable	10,349.92	81¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.4K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No	Redeemable	17,173.6873	59.53¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.2K	-100.0%	2026-09-04
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Held	375,601.8613	12.55¢	4.9¢	$18.4K	-$10.5K	-61.0%	2027-01-01
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes	Redeemable	50,652.6615	31.38¢	0¢	$0.00	-$15.9K	-100.0%	2026-08-04
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? No	Redeemable	46,557.7915	31.45¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.4K	-100.0%	2026-08-04
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Redeemable	25,598.34	66.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$17.1K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	42,131.4383	57.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.5K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	66,837.2976	38.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$25.7K	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	0.2315	82.99¢	84.5¢	$0.20	-$34.1K	+1.8%	2027-01-01
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs Team Liquid	Redeemable	299,999.9945	38.66¢	0¢	$0.00	-$116.0K	-100.0%	2026-08-22
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No	Redeemable	0.2949	77.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$124.4K	-100.0%	—
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	527,486.7215	8.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$169.9K	-100.0%	2026-05-31

Download this record (Researcher, or an address you have verified as your own):Record CSV JSON

Check available wallet history →