Wallet positions

0x3ec5…c370

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

2013

Realized PnL

$17.87

Win rate

98.0%

Realized edge

-0.3 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge -0.3 pp across 2013 resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.0, +0.3], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

66 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:18:51 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026? No	Held	20.9205	95.6¢	99.35¢	$20.78	$0.78	+3.9%	2026-09-30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? Yes	Held	20.8333	96¢	99.7¢	$20.77	$0.77	+3.9%	2026-10-08
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23? No	Held	20.8333	96¢	99.6¢	$20.75	$0.75	+3.7%	2026-09-24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? Yes	Held	20.8333	96¢	98.95¢	$20.61	$0.61	+3.1%	2026-10-10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? Yes	Held	20.4145	97.96¢	99.95¢	$20.40	$0.40	+2.0%	2026-10-06
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.5973	97.09¢	98.95¢	$20.38	$0.38	+1.9%	2026-10-09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? Yes	Held	20.8333	96¢	97.55¢	$20.32	$0.32	+1.6%	2026-10-10
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.8333	95.99¢	97.4¢	$20.29	$0.29	+1.5%	2026-10-09
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.75 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.7253	96.49¢	97.55¢	$20.22	$0.22	+1.1%	2026-10-09
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 8, 2026? Yes	Held	20.6185	96.99¢	97.65¢	$20.13	$0.13	+0.7%	2026-10-09
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026? No	Held	20.429	97.9¢	98.55¢	$20.13	$0.13	+0.7%	2026-10-11
Houthi military action against Mecca by September 30, 2026? No	Held	20.2428	98.79¢	99.45¢	$20.13	$0.13	+0.7%	2026-09-30
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? Yes	Held	20.5549	97.29¢	97.75¢	$20.09	$0.09	+0.5%	2026-10-09
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.6185	96.99¢	97.25¢	$20.05	$0.05	+0.3%	2026-10-09
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30? No	Held	20.3251	98.39¢	98.2¢	$19.96	-$0.04	-0.2%	2026-09-30
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? No	Held	20.1771	99.12¢	98.9¢	$19.96	-$0.04	-0.2%	2026-09-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? No	Held	20.2634	98.69¢	98.45¢	$19.95	-$0.05	-0.3%	2026-10-09
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026? No	Held	20.202	98.99¢	98.7¢	$19.94	-$0.06	-0.3%	2026-10-08
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? No	Held	20.202	99¢	98.55¢	$19.91	-$0.09	-0.5%	2026-10-08
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30? No	Held	20.03	99.85¢	99.05¢	$19.84	-$0.16	-0.8%	2026-10-01
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? No	Held	20.036	99.81¢	98.75¢	$19.79	-$0.21	-1.1%	2026-10-01
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.8333	95.99¢	94.35¢	$19.66	-$0.34	-1.7%	2026-10-09
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026? Yes	Held	20.6185	96.99¢	95¢	$19.59	-$0.41	-2.1%	2026-10-06
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? No	Held	20.9863	95.29¢	89.3¢	$18.74	-$1.26	-6.3%	2026-10-11
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? No	Held	20.3045	98.49¢	91.6¢	$18.60	-$1.40	-7.0%	2026-10-09
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No	Redeemable	5.2631	94.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.01	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? No	Redeemable	5.2631	94.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.01	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes	Redeemable	5.2631	94.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.01	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? No	Redeemable	5.2631	94.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.01	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Cabo Verde to win the second half? No	Redeemable	5.3763	92.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.01	-100.0%	2026-07-03
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals No	Redeemable	10	99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.90	-100.0%	2026-07-07
Mexico vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under	Redeemable	10.101	98.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Canada	Redeemable	10.101	98.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco? No	Redeemable	10.1214	98.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Exact Score: FC Anyang 2 - 3 Pohang Steelers FC? No	Redeemable	10.1625	98.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England? No	Redeemable	10.1832	98.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.01	-100.0%	2026-07-06
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt? No	Redeemable	10.1936	98.09¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.01	-100.0%	2026-07-07
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2? Yes	Held	20.6185	96.99¢	13.9¢	$2.87	-$17.13	-85.7%	2026-10-03
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of July 6 2026? No	Redeemable	18.2001	98.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.01	-100.0%	2026-07-10
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? No	Redeemable	18.3186	98.26¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.02	-100.0%	2026-07-15
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? No	Redeemable	18.4615	97.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.02	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? No	Redeemable	18.4804	97.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.02	-100.0%	2026-08-12
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 3? Yes	Redeemable	20.3454	98.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? No	Redeemable	20.3799	98.13¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-10-04
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.4708	97.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-11
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? No	Redeemable	20.7253	96.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-01
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes	Redeemable	20.8768	95.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? No	Redeemable	20.6185	96.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-07-08
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.79	96.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-17
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No	Redeemable	20.6185	96.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16? No	Redeemable	20.4081	98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.8333	96¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-17
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.6398	96.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.6611	96.79¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-08-24
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 21 2026? No	Redeemable	20.2041	98.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.01	-100.0%	2026-09-25
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? No	Redeemable	20.3032	98.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.01	-100.0%	2026-09-04
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on July 7? No	Redeemable	20.4081	97.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.02	-100.0%	2026-07-07
Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on September 25? No	Redeemable	20.4081	97.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.02	-100.0%	2026-09-25
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 10? No	Redeemable	20.429	97.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.02	-100.0%	2026-08-10
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on July 13? No	Redeemable	20.6398	96.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.02	-100.0%	2026-07-13
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on July 13? No	Redeemable	20.6825	96.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.03	-100.0%	2026-07-13
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? No	Redeemable	20.8333	95.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.03	-100.0%	2026-09-08
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of July 6 2026? No	Redeemable	20.8333	95.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.03	-100.0%	2026-07-10
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No	Redeemable	20.9264	95.57¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.04	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes	Redeemable	21.0083	95.19¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.04	-100.0%	2026-08-11
Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings? Yes	Redeemable	20.8333	95.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.04	-100.0%	2026-07-29

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