Wallet ledger

0x3ec5…c370

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

163

Realized PnL

$65

Win rate

100%

Realized edge

+0.018

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.018 across 163 resolved positions, 95% CI [+0.02, +0.02]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (41 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? Yes	Open	21	96¢	$1	+4%	2026-08-22
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-21
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? Yes	Open	21	96¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-25
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 13, 2026? No	Open	21	97¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-13
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-24
Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes	Open	21	97¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-18
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026? No	Open	21	97¢	$0	+2%	2026-08-21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	10	96¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? No	Open	20	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-23
Will Edna DeVries advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-18
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	18	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026? No	Open	20	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-27
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-18
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes	Open	18	98¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-11
Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	21	97¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will Michaelangelo Hamilton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-22
Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes	Open	20	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	20	98¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-18
Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? No	Open	21	97¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-23
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 15, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-15
Will Rebecca Kleefisch win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election? No	Open	18	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 24, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-08-25
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? No	Open	20	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-23
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	20	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-18
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-22
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 23, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-24
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Yes	Open	21	96¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-26
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 23, 2026? No	Open	16	99¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-23
Will Hank Kroll advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	20	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-18
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-28
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026? No	Open	21	97¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-24
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-26
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	-$0	-2%	2026-08-26
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 23, 2026? No	Open	20	99¢	-$1	-4%	2026-08-23
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026? No	Open	21	97¢	-$1	-4%	2026-08-25
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? No	Open	20	99¢	-$1	-4%	2026-08-23
Will Lesil McGuire advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No	Open	21	97¢	-$2	-11%	2026-08-18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	31	48¢	-$5	-34%	2026-09-16
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	-$16	-80%	2026-08-17
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? No	Open	21	96¢	-$20	-100%	2026-08-17

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