Wallet ledger

0x3790…c6a8

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$269

Win rate

65%

Realized edge

+0.047

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.047 across 20 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.17, +0.19]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (7 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? Yes	Open	459	7¢	$300	+960%	2026-10-01
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31? Yes	Open	70	21¢	$53	+360%	2027-01-01
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	200	92¢	$8	+4%	2027-01-01
US congress stock trading ban before 2027? No	Open	3	86¢	$0	+9%	2027-01-01
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes	Open	200	97¢	-$1	-1%	2026-11-19
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	5,000	1¢	-$7	-25%	2028-11-07
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,000	2¢	-$10	-45%	2028-11-07

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →