Wallet ledger

0x0ac6…04f7

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

242

Realized PnL

-$30.6K

Win rate

84%

Realized edge

+0.004

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.004 across 242 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.00, +0.02]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (115 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Open	21	97¢	$0	+1%	2027-01-01
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No	Open	2	92¢	$0	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	96¢	$0	+3%	2028-11-07
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No	Open	6	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	97¢	$0	+2%	2028-11-07
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+2%	2026-10-04
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+2%	2028-11-07
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+2%	2028-11-07
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	2	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
EU dissolves before 2027? No	Open	1	96¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	97¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Trenten Merrill win The Bachelorette Season 22? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-30
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	96¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	3	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	3	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	3	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-10
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	3	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	1	97¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	2	99¢	$0	+0%	2027-03-31
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-01
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	6	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	5	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-12-31
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	4	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will Dayana Yastremska win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	3	100¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2026-06-30
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	$0	+0%	2028-11-07
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	2	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	3	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-04-30
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	3	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-04-30
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	99¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	3	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-04-30
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	4	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	4	99¢	-$0	-0%	2027-03-31
Will Club Brugge win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No	Open	5	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	5	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Lille win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No	Open	6	100¢	-$0	-0%	2027-05-30
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? No	Open	6	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-30
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's US Open? No	Open	2	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-0%	2028-11-07
Will Elise Mertens win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	3	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	4	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-13
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open? No	Open	1	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-13
Will Mike Turitto win The Bachelorette Season 22? No	Open	6	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-30
Will Brad Ledford win The Bachelorette Season 22? No	Open	5	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-30
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	98¢	-$0	-2%	2028-11-07
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No	Open	1	99¢	-$0	-2%	2027-01-01
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	2	99¢	-$0	-1%	2028-11-07
Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? No	Open	6	100¢	-$0	-0%	2026-11-30
Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No	Open	4	100¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-13
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	96¢	-$0	-4%	2028-11-07
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No	Open	5	98¢	-$0	-2%	2028-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	1	94¢	-$0	-9%	2028-11-07
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	1	97¢	-$0	-12%	2028-11-07
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No	Open	5	97¢	-$0	-3%	2028-01-01

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →