Wallet ledger

0x0845…6b6f

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

112

Realized PnL

-$790

Win rate

46%

Realized edge

+0.019

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.019 across 112 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.04, +0.08]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (280 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	40,000	50¢	$15.7K	+78%	2028-11-07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	8,063	46¢	$1.7K	+47%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No	Open	12,034	80¢	$1.7K	+18%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	6,882	68¢	$1.6K	+34%	2027-07-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	10,731	54¢	$1.4K	+25%	2026-09-16
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,990	40¢	$1.2K	+103%	2027-07-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	11,277	89¢	$1.1K	+11%	2026-09-01
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No	Open	3,373	63¢	$1.1K	+53%	2026-09-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes	Open	3,156	68¢	$925	+43%	2026-08-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	1,835	52¢	$849	+89%	2026-09-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Open	3,292	56¢	$842	+46%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,699	66¢	$668	+38%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes	Open	2,437	44¢	$649	+61%	2026-09-16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	19,353	80¢	$623	+4%	2026-12-31
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	15,122	68¢	$432	+4%	2026-09-30
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes	Open	2,016	67¢	$424	+31%	2026-12-31
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No	Open	989	55¢	$415	+76%	2026-09-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Open	12,581	90¢	$392	+3%	2026-12-31
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes	Open	1,960	50¢	$333	+34%	2026-12-31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Open	3,264	73¢	$295	+12%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	3,674	8¢	$173	+61%	2026-09-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,740	74¢	$169	+13%	2026-12-31
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Open	4,071	68¢	$141	+5%	2026-11-03
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No	Open	594	38¢	$129	+58%	2026-12-09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Open	715	65¢	$127	+27%	2026-12-31
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	400	50¢	$105	+52%	2028-11-07
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Open	3,000	23¢	$90	+13%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	8,156	32¢	$81	+3%	2026-10-04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1,002	21¢	$78	+37%	2027-01-01
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes	Open	3,772	37¢	$73	+5%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,485	12¢	$67	+38%	2027-07-01
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Open	482	71¢	$67	+20%	2027-01-01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No	Open	1,075	87¢	$66	+7%	2026-10-01
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? No	Open	240	70¢	$64	+38%	2026-08-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	400	55¢	$54	+25%	2026-09-16
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No	Open	2,575	92¢	$49	+2%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Open	902	47¢	$41	+10%	1970-01-01
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? No	Open	1,397	97¢	$40	+3%	2026-08-31
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	600	71¢	$38	+9%	2026-09-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No	Open	1,000	79¢	$35	+4%	2027-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? No	Open	180	72¢	$33	+26%	2026-10-01
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No	Open	717	81¢	$31	+5%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No	Open	2,313	84¢	$31	+2%	2026-10-31
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	1,141	84¢	$29	+3%	2026-08-28
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Open	169	75¢	$28	+22%	2026-12-31
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	500	17¢	$27	+31%	2028-11-07
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	5,873	85¢	$23	+0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	322	50¢	$23	+14%	2026-12-31
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No	Open	5,000	98¢	$22	+0%	2026-10-08
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? No	Open	6,409	10¢	$18	+3%	2026-08-31
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	222	17¢	$18	+47%	2026-09-13
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No	Open	463	94¢	$14	+3%	2026-12-31
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No	Open	30	33¢	$13	+129%	2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No	Open	176	90¢	$13	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	78	77¢	$12	+19%	2026-12-31
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	241	47¢	$11	+10%	2027-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? No	Open	121	88¢	$11	+10%	2026-09-30
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No	Open	65	80¢	$10	+20%	2026-12-31
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No	Open	100	77¢	$9	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	166	88¢	$9	+6%	2026-12-31
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	106	17¢	$5	+26%	2026-09-13
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes	Open	71	89¢	$5	+7%	2026-12-31
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	26	63¢	$4	+25%	2026-09-13
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Open	40	78¢	$3	+10%	2026-12-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 24, 2026? No	Open	190	67¢	$3	+2%	2026-08-24
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	40	90¢	$3	+8%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	432	50¢	$2	+1%	1970-01-01
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long? No	Open	130	65¢	$2	+2%	2026-08-27
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long? No	Open	110	37¢	$2	+4%	2026-08-27
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	19	65¢	$1	+8%	2026-09-13
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	300	91¢	$1	+0%	2026-10-10
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Open	2	55¢	$1	+78%	2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? No	Open	3	69¢	$1	+34%	2026-12-31
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes	Open	25	3¢	$0	+60%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	11	92¢	$0	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	70	94¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-30
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	40	97¢	$0	+1%	2026-10-10
Will the NYSE develop its own chain? No	Open	5	57¢	$0	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Open	4	92¢	$0	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? No	Open	14	93¢	$0	+1%	1970-01-01
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August 2026? Yes	Open	3	16¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-31
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Yes	Open	1	7¢	-$0	-36%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2	16¢	-$0	-74%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes	Open	31	6¢	-$1	-41%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? No	Open	250	88¢	-$1	-1%	2026-09-08
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Greenville County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff? Yes	Open	141	3¢	-$1	-33%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Yes	Open	322	68¢	-$2	-1%	2027-12-31
Will Vitalik Buterin appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes	Open	40	13¢	-$3	-56%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	46	10¢	-$3	-74%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes	Open	222	4¢	-$5	-54%	2026-09-01
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	2,657	98¢	-$5	-0%	2026-09-13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	45	23¢	-$7	-67%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Open	200	10¢	-$7	-35%	2026-10-01
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	75	50¢	-$7	-19%	2026-09-20
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Yes	Open	179	12¢	-$8	-37%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	160	8¢	-$10	-76%	2027-01-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 17, 2026? Yes	Open	60	27¢	-$10	-64%	2026-08-17
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Open	385	33¢	-$12	-10%	2026-12-31
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? Yes	Open	3,624	10¢	-$13	-4%	2026-10-01
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? Yes	Open	300	6¢	-$15	-90%	2026-09-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,711	1¢	-$18	-84%	2026-09-30
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? No	Open	5,000	2¢	-$25	-23%	2026-08-25
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	200	17¢	-$27	-78%	2027-01-01
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	11,739	8¢	-$37	-4%	2028-11-07
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	161	59¢	-$38	-40%	2026-10-01
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes	Open	863	31¢	-$39	-15%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No	Open	313	20¢	-$42	-67%	2026-12-31
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	200	31¢	-$43	-69%	2026-12-31
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? No	Open	164	29¢	-$48	-100%	2026-08-11
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes	Open	580	9¢	-$49	-98%	2026-08-31
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Yes	Open	100	50¢	-$50	-99%	2026-12-31
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? No	Open	102	57¢	-$54	-93%	2026-08-31
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Open	724	18¢	-$59	-45%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	500	15¢	-$61	-80%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No	Open	713	93¢	-$69	-10%	2027-07-01
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	322	50¢	-$70	-44%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$89	-89%	2028-11-07
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	250	40¢	-$92	-92%	2026-10-01
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	300	50¢	-$94	-63%	2026-09-20
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$95	-95%	2028-11-07
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	48¢	-$96	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	49¢	-$97	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	49¢	-$97	-99%	2028-11-07
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or KD? KD	Open	797	39¢	-$97	-32%	2026-09-13
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	49¢	-$98	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$98	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$99	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$100	-100%	2028-11-07
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$100	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$100	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$100	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	200	50¢	-$100	-100%	2028-11-07
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Yes	Open	2,340	7¢	-$104	-64%	2026-09-01
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes	Open	523	42¢	-$106	-48%	2026-09-01
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	222	50¢	-$110	-100%	2026-12-31
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? No	Open	2,500	25¢	-$112	-18%	2026-09-15
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No	Open	918	35¢	-$115	-36%	1970-01-01
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	790	19¢	-$123	-82%	2027-01-01
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	932	36¢	-$129	-38%	2026-09-20
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	300	50¢	-$134	-90%	2026-09-20
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	700	29¢	-$139	-69%	2027-01-01
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	968	23¢	-$140	-64%	2026-09-20
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	322	50¢	-$149	-92%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	322	50¢	-$152	-95%	2026-12-31
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Open	1,013	22¢	-$153	-70%	2026-12-31
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,240	10¢	-$158	-68%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	322	50¢	-$160	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	400	50¢	-$199	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	400	50¢	-$199	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,258	21¢	-$201	-76%	2028-11-07
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes	Open	684	60¢	-$202	-49%	2026-09-16
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,133	16¢	-$207	-62%	2027-01-01
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to MP or KD? KD	Open	1,022	43¢	-$220	-50%	2026-09-13
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$235	-94%	2026-12-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes	Open	2,834	14¢	-$238	-62%	2026-09-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$244	-98%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$245	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$246	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$247	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$247	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$248	-99%	2026-12-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	3,680	30¢	-$248	-22%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$248	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$248	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$249	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$249	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$249	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes	Open	500	50¢	-$249	-100%	2026-12-31
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No	Open	602	67¢	-$255	-63%	2026-09-30
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Open	3,415	36¢	-$267	-22%	2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,544	31¢	-$269	-34%	2028-11-07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,288	12¢	-$269	-96%	2026-09-01
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,880	22¢	-$270	-67%	2027-01-01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	1,971	28¢	-$320	-59%	2026-12-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,844	20¢	-$370	-98%	2026-09-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,477	31¢	-$390	-85%	2026-09-30
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Open	1,680	50¢	-$412	-49%	2026-12-31
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,000	50¢	-$475	-95%	2028-11-07
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	47¢	-$488	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$498	-95%	2028-11-07
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,214	14¢	-$499	-86%	2028-11-07
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	49¢	-$500	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$504	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	49¢	-$507	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$513	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$515	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$516	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$517	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$517	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$517	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$517	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$518	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$518	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$518	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$518	-99%	2028-11-07
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$519	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,042	50¢	-$519	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	3,405	86¢	-$553	-19%	2026-08-11
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	80,910	1¢	-$563	-61%	2028-11-07
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	2,287	35¢	-$569	-70%	2026-10-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,300	52¢	-$605	-89%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Yes	Open	1,046	66¢	-$623	-91%	2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	4,245	25¢	-$640	-61%	2026-09-30
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	3,578	35¢	-$719	-57%	2028-11-07
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,792	50¢	-$883	-99%	2028-11-07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	2,409	71¢	-$960	-56%	2026-10-01
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,042	50¢	-$1.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-97%	2028-11-07
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes	Open	2,240	49¢	-$1.1K	-98%	2026-12-31
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	2,200	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes	Open	2,240	50¢	-$1.1K	-99%	2026-12-31
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Yes	Open	2,240	50¢	-$1.1K	-100%	2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,500	92¢	-$1.1K	-48%	2026-11-01
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes	Open	5,030	58¢	-$1.4K	-46%	2026-12-09
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	7,052	44¢	-$1.4K	-45%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	9,574	26¢	-$1.7K	-67%	2026-11-01
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	3,750	48¢	-$1.8K	-99%	2028-11-07
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes	Open	13,010	30¢	-$1.9K	-50%	2026-12-31
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	4,000	50¢	-$1.9K	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	4,000	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.0K	-81%	2028-11-07
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4,042	50¢	-$2.0K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.4K	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,000	50¢	-$2.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	19,244	25¢	-$4.2K	-89%	2026-09-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	50,730	48¢	-$18.7K	-77%	2028-11-07

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