Wallet positions

0x0845…6b6f

Current holdings from Polymarket, with the saved analysis of this wallet's resolved record.

Resolved positions

112

Realized PnL

-$790.15

Win rate

45.5%

Realized edge

+1.9 pp

Resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer from Polymarket's recent-trade window (the same numbers the analyzer reports). Realized edge +1.9 pp across 112 resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.6, +7.6], on the venue-derived record. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current holdings

500 positions returned. Up to 500 by current value; venue filters can omit holdings. Display limit reached; more positions may exist.

Checked 2026-10-08 04:20:09 UTC.

About this snapshot

Checked is our request time, not the venue's update time. Prices, values and PnL are venue snapshot figures; missing values show a dash. Held does not establish whether a market has resolved; Redeemable is the venue's flag. Snapshot PnL is separate from the saved resolved record above. This is not the full trading history.


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Held	2,801.7144	66.09¢	81.5¢	$2.3K	$7.6K	+23.3%	2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Held	6,095.7584	83.86¢	84.5¢	$5.2K	$7.1K	+0.8%	2027-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Held	10,271.6447	70.95¢	83.95¢	$8.6K	$6.6K	+18.3%	2026-10-05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Held	7,178.5921	92.16¢	94.5¢	$6.8K	$4.4K	+2.5%	2027-01-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Held	2,633.3457	55.92¢	87.5¢	$2.3K	$4.4K	+56.5%	2027-01-01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Held	9,640.2356	73.5¢	84.5¢	$8.1K	$2.9K	+15.0%	2026-10-05
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	7,835.5835	33.92¢	15.15¢	$1.2K	$2.4K	-55.3%	2028-11-08
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,463.1114	3.99¢	4.45¢	$243.11	$1.8K	+11.3%	2028-11-08
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No	Held	2,023.9442	65.73¢	86.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	+31.6%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	125.0028	9¢	17.95¢	$22.44	$1.5K	+99.4%	2028-11-08
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	6,205.3248	50.88¢	48.55¢	$3.0K	$1.5K	-4.6%	2028-11-08
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes	Held	3,529.0141	83.62¢	88.05¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	+5.3%	2026-12-31
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	12,226.9664	13.19¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US recession by end of 2026? No	Held	10,325.8417	87.1¢	93.5¢	$9.7K	$1.2K	+7.3%	2027-01-31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Held	2,660.7895	95.72¢	95.55¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	-0.2%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	3,066.0038	97.72¢	99.3¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	+1.6%	2027-04-01
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Redeemable	0.486	1.04¢	0¢	$0.00	$1.0K	-99.9%	2026-12-31
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9616	0.5¢	5.05¢	$10.10	$999.06	+902.2%	2028-11-08
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	200.0603	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	$989.01	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes	Held	1,674.3405	0.47¢	1.8¢	$30.14	$941.41	+281.8%	2027-01-01
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes	Held	1,959.9246	17.81¢	63.5¢	$1.2K	$937.85	+256.4%	2027-03-02
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? No	Held	719.3538	57.07¢	71.5¢	$514.34	$920.43	+25.3%	2027-02-01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	9,379.3307	74.83¢	81.5¢	$7.6K	$825.09	+8.9%	2027-01-01
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	26,506.7276	7.8¢	6.9¢	$1.8K	$774.31	-11.6%	2028-11-08
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	6,259.3002	59.18¢	65.5¢	$4.1K	$712.74	+10.7%	2026-11-04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? No	Held	4,100.3169	84.19¢	91.5¢	$3.8K	$615.26	+8.7%	2026-10-16
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	3,750	0.54¢	0.35¢	$13.13	$610.71	-36.0%	2028-11-08
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,497.7564	1.54¢	2.75¢	$68.69	$580.59	+78.2%	2028-11-08
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	4,000	0.54¢	2.3¢	$92.00	$564.59	+320.3%	2028-11-08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	2,107.8428	34.75¢	41.5¢	$874.75	$557.20	+19.4%	2026-12-31
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	28.7231	48.94¢	20.05¢	$5.76	$538.21	-59.0%	2028-11-08
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	10.35¢	$517.50	$490.09	+1788.0%	2028-11-08
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	4,000	0.54¢	0.15¢	$6.00	$478.59	-72.6%	2028-11-08
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,257.5535	4.73¢	6.05¢	$76.08	$473.87	+27.7%	2028-11-08
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Held	7,774.91	49.56¢	55¢	$4.3K	$424.59	+11.0%	2026-12-31
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No	Held	4,070.5866	68.03¢	71.5¢	$2.9K	$419.42	+5.1%	2026-11-04
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes	Held	3,118.7539	54.12¢	67.5¢	$2.1K	$417.11	+24.7%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes	Held	1,777.4323	50.99¢	63.5¢	$1.1K	$406.89	+24.5%	2026-11-04
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Held	3,081.67	54.81¢	67.5¢	$2.1K	$391.03	+23.2%	2026-11-04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Held	441.41	24.89¢	9.5¢	$41.93	$385.02	-61.8%	2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	160.4406	8¢	1.35¢	$2.17	$376.74	-83.1%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike Iran next? Yes	Redeemable	3,800.4838	4.54¢	0¢	$0.00	$372.49	-100.0%	—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	2,500	69¢	83.5¢	$2.1K	$362.50	+21.0%	2026-10-29
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes	Held	1,679.9446	17.81¢	37¢	$621.58	$351.27	+107.7%	2027-03-02
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? No	Held	1,269.7604	96.97¢	97.35¢	$1.2K	$346.36	+0.4%	2026-11-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes	Held	3,508.06	69.01¢	78¢	$2.7K	$315.31	+13.0%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No	Held	944.2949	70.85¢	73.5¢	$694.06	$309.43	+3.7%	2027-01-05
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	21,385.1706	2.47¢	2.65¢	$566.71	$279.60	+7.1%	2026-11-01
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No	Held	3,657.3363	92.75¢	94.5¢	$3.5K	$277.99	+1.9%	2027-01-01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Held	6,239.72	71.02¢	74.5¢	$4.6K	$276.78	+4.9%	2027-01-01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	7,838.9112	80¢	79.5¢	$6.2K	$261.56	-0.6%	2026-09-14
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? No	Held	4,000	88.37¢	94.9¢	$3.8K	$261.00	+7.4%	2026-12-31
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No	Held	1,266.96	47.24¢	63.4¢	$803.25	$259.02	+34.2%	2027-01-01
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? No	Redeemable	242.0416	33.82¢	0¢	$0.00	$257.05	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Held	902.5036	92.18¢	96.85¢	$874.07	$249.10	+5.1%	2027-01-01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	1,500	42¢	58.25¢	$873.75	$243.75	+38.7%	2026-06-03
No one announced as next James Bond? No	Held	4,494.6	76.84¢	80.85¢	$3.6K	$243.35	+5.2%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes	Held	102.16	26¢	27.5¢	$28.09	$241.53	+5.8%	2026-11-04
Iran leadership change by December 31? No	Held	481.9901	70.7¢	88.5¢	$426.56	$222.79	+25.2%	2027-01-01
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No	Held	677.302	80.71¢	89.5¢	$606.19	$182.15	+10.9%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	322	7.73¢	61.7¢	$198.67	$173.77	+697.8%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No	Held	845.5461	85.1¢	97.75¢	$826.52	$173.43	+14.9%	2026-11-01
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.0147	1.4¢	0.75¢	$0.30	$169.33	-46.7%	2027-04-01
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Held	1,808.6688	84.57¢	91.5¢	$1.7K	$165.76	+8.2%	2027-01-01
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,852.0003	1.59¢	3.2¢	$59.26	$164.76	+101.2%	2028-11-08
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes	Held	1,248.5081	96.03¢	98.4¢	$1.2K	$162.77	+2.5%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	2,350	54.95¢	61.5¢	$1.4K	$153.75	+11.9%	2026-11-04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	4,808.0207	92.44¢	95.55¢	$4.6K	$150.03	+3.4%	2028-01-01
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	11,172.9264	1.2¢	2.5¢	$279.32	$148.17	+108.2%	2028-11-08
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	9,526.0189	90.77¢	91.5¢	$8.7K	$131.40	+0.8%	2026-11-04
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	3,464.82	23.56¢	16.5¢	$571.70	$131.33	-30.0%	2028-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No	Held	1,999.99	55¢	61.5¢	$1.2K	$130.00	+11.8%	2026-11-04
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No	Held	1,758.0852	60.99¢	67.5¢	$1.2K	$129.92	+10.7%	2026-12-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Held	3,787.3092	77.61¢	81¢	$3.1K	$128.34	+4.4%	2027-01-01
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes	Held	220.4702	60.28¢	81¢	$178.58	$125.42	+34.4%	2027-01-01
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	15.45¢	$129.78	$119.30	+1137.7%	2026-10-10
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes	Held	1,691.81	64.05¢	71¢	$1.2K	$117.58	+10.9%	2026-12-01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No	Held	168.7159	75.18¢	94¢	$158.59	$106.31	+25.0%	2027-01-01
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No	Held	1,111.0071	92.04¢	96.6¢	$1.1K	$104.53	+4.9%	2027-01-29
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Held	977.93	54.5¢	64.5¢	$630.76	$103.48	+18.3%	2026-11-04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? Yes	Held	1,521.99	93¢	99.7¢	$1.5K	$101.97	+7.2%	2026-10-08
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	789.5531	19¢	3.05¢	$24.08	$94.30	-83.9%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Held	284.21	31.04¢	62.5¢	$177.63	$89.40	+101.3%	2026-11-03
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No	Held	2,123.041	88.52¢	89.5¢	$1.9K	$88.89	+1.1%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Yes	Held	100	8.08¢	0.35¢	$0.35	$86.45	-95.7%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	322	7.73¢	32.8¢	$105.62	$80.71	+324.1%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	494.31	50¢	65.5¢	$323.77	$76.62	+31.0%	2026-11-04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No	Held	1,329	89.29¢	91.5¢	$1.2K	$63.93	+2.5%	2026-12-01
Will the Republicans win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	207.21	28.8¢	59.5¢	$123.29	$63.60	+106.5%	2026-11-03
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No	Held	827.42	68.32¢	87.05¢	$720.27	$62.14	+27.4%	2027-01-01
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No	Held	6,169.49	16.99¢	18¢	$1.1K	$61.70	+5.9%	2027-01-01
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	8.5¢	$71.40	$60.91	+580.9%	2026-10-10
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Held	2,045.2397	84.35¢	90.5¢	$1.9K	$56.42	+7.3%	2027-01-01
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No	Held	2,867	93.76¢	95.5¢	$2.7K	$56.42	+1.8%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0139	0.45¢	1.6¢	$16.67	$55.47	+248.2%	2028-11-08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	679.0073	4.96¢	0¢	$0.00	$53.87	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No	Held	30	33¢	74.6¢	$22.38	$52.40	+126.1%	2027-01-01
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,163.9962	6.24¢	0¢	$0.00	$50.71	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	7.05¢	$59.22	$48.73	+464.8%	2026-10-10
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Held	3,000	77¢	78.5¢	$2.4K	$45.00	+1.9%	2026-10-27
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes	Held	2,281.54	90.79¢	92.6¢	$2.1K	$41.28	+2.0%	2026-12-31
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Held	259.9952	91.16¢	94.7¢	$246.22	$40.53	+3.9%	2027-04-01
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	1.35¢	$67.50	$40.09	+146.3%	2028-11-08
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	22.35	11.06¢	0¢	$0.00	$37.99	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1.8291	16.02¢	3.05¢	$0.06	$37.76	-81.0%	2027-01-01
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Held	77.6276	76.58¢	93¢	$72.19	$36.22	+21.4%	2027-01-01
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No	Held	65.0206	79.98¢	95.95¢	$62.39	$34.19	+20.0%	2027-01-01
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	2.05¢	$45.10	$34.02	+306.8%	2028-11-08
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	2.55¢	$1.02	$30.53	+81.0%	2027-04-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	240.82	46.91¢	59.5¢	$143.29	$30.30	+26.8%	2027-01-01
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Held	10,043.988	1.11¢	1.2¢	$120.53	$29.17	+7.9%	2026-09-14
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	222	7.8¢	0.15¢	$0.33	$25.43	-98.1%	2027-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No	Held	200	62¢	74.5¢	$149.00	$25.00	+20.2%	2029-01-01
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.977	0.5¢	1.75¢	$3.50	$22.41	+247.3%	2028-11-08
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	108.0391	4.04¢	3.3¢	$3.57	$19.67	-18.5%	2027-04-01
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No	Redeemable	1,393.6159	5.3¢	0¢	$0.00	$18.90	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes	Held	0.7764	57¢	18¢	$0.14	$17.88	-68.4%	2027-01-02
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? No	Held	1,180.68	96.2¢	97.35¢	$1.1K	$17.69	+1.2%	2027-01-01
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	148.9364	0.6¢	0.45¢	$0.67	$16.72	-25.0%	2028-11-08
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	1.25¢	$27.50	$16.41	+148.1%	2028-11-08
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Held	101.5176	15¢	29.35¢	$29.80	$14.57	+95.7%	2028-01-01
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.95¢	$24.78	$14.29	+136.3%	2026-10-10
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	138.9831	22.58¢	0¢	$0.00	$14.09	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	1.05¢	$2.10	$13.99	+108.4%	2028-11-08
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.0086	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	$13.53	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.5¢	$0.20	$12.91	-64.5%	2027-04-01
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	1.05¢	$23.10	$12.01	+108.4%	2028-11-08
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Yes	Held	179.06	11.99¢	5.5¢	$9.85	$11.86	-54.2%	2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	46.36	10¢	2.05¢	$0.95	$11.31	-79.5%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	3¢	$15.00	$11.21	+295.7%	2027-01-01
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.55¢	$21.42	$10.93	+104.3%	2026-10-10
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.55¢	$21.42	$10.93	+104.3%	2026-10-10
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.45¢	$20.58	$10.09	+96.3%	2026-10-10
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	650.5415	11¢	12.5¢	$81.32	$9.76	+13.6%	2027-07-01
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.25¢	$18.90	$8.41	+80.2%	2026-10-10
Will Anthropic’s valuation be less than $500B at the end of October 2026? No	Held	85.26	89.88¢	99.35¢	$84.71	$8.07	+10.5%	2026-10-31
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	2.15¢	$18.06	$7.57	+72.2%	2026-10-10
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	$7.21	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.35¢	$3.65	$6.44	-23.8%	2028-11-08
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	1.95¢	$16.38	$5.89	+56.2%	2026-10-10
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Held	40	90¢	97.6¢	$39.04	$5.79	+8.4%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No	Held	39.5	78¢	92.5¢	$36.54	$5.73	+18.6%	2026-12-31
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.4¢	$0.16	$5.67	-71.6%	2027-04-01
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.35¢	$0.70	$5.61	-30.5%	2028-11-08
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.65¢	$32.50	$5.09	+18.6%	2028-11-07
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	1.85¢	$15.54	$5.05	+48.2%	2026-10-10
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	$4.53	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.7¢	$15.40	$4.31	+38.9%	2028-11-08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	111	51.1¢	54.8¢	$60.83	$4.11	+7.2%	2026-10-28
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	1.7¢	$14.28	$3.79	+36.2%	2026-10-10
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No	Held	3.9188	91.99¢	97.7¢	$3.83	$3.72	+6.2%	2027-01-01
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? Yes	Held	38.97	86.99¢	96.15¢	$37.47	$3.57	+10.5%	2027-07-01
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.25¢	$0.50	$3.41	-50.4%	2028-11-08
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.65¢	$14.30	$3.21	+29.0%	2028-11-08
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.95¢	$1.90	$2.81	+88.5%	2028-11-08
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.018	1.4¢	1.25¢	$0.50	$2.41	-11.2%	2027-04-01
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	2.65¢	$5.30	$2.21	+425.9%	2028-11-08
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? No	Held	200.64	74.52¢	75.5¢	$151.48	$1.97	+1.3%	2026-12-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	1.1¢	$5.50	$1.71	+45.1%	2027-01-01
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31? No	Held	113.9393	96.7¢	98.1¢	$111.77	$1.60	+1.4%	2026-11-01
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	$1.21	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	$1.21	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	$1.21	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No	Held	7.9677	69¢	83.5¢	$6.65	$1.16	+21.0%	2028-01-01
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	100	92.35¢	92.5¢	$92.50	$1.13	+0.2%	2028-01-01
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	72.94	48.07¢	49.5¢	$36.11	$1.04	+3.0%	2026-10-31
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	$1.01	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	$1.01	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	$1.01	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No	Held	2.2222	55¢	97.75¢	$2.17	$0.95	+77.7%	2027-01-01
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes	Held	31	6¢	8.9¢	$2.76	$0.90	+48.3%	2027-01-01
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	1.35¢	$11.34	$0.85	+8.1%	2026-10-10
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? No	Held	3.2258	69¢	87¢	$2.81	$0.58	+26.1%	2027-01-01
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.65¢	$1.30	$0.21	+29.0%	2028-11-08
Will the NYSE develop its own chain? No	Held	4.6511	57¢	61¢	$2.84	$0.19	+7.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	10.75	92¢	93¢	$10.00	$0.11	+1.1%	2026-11-04
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.55¢	$27.50	$0.09	+0.3%	2028-11-08
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes	Held	25.28	3¢	3.3¢	$0.83	$0.08	+10.0%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? No	Held	14.2857	93¢	93.15¢	$13.31	$0.02	+0.2%	2026-11-04
Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? Yes	Held	130.89	0.3¢	0.3¢	$0.39	$0.00	0.0%	2028-01-01
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	322	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	322	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-01-06
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-01-06
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-01-06
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Redeemable	630.08	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-08-25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	0¢	0¢	$0.00	$0.00	0.0%	2026-01-06
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Yes	Held	1.0752	7¢	3.55¢	$0.04	-$0.04	-49.3%	2027-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	8.56	5¢	4.5¢	$0.39	-$0.04	-10.0%	2027-01-01
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 7 be between 2,100,000 and 2,200,000? Yes	Redeemable	2.4191	3.28¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.08	-99.9%	2026-01-07
Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call? No	Redeemable	40	0.2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.08	-100.0%	2026-02-04
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	5.03	84.99¢	81.5¢	$4.10	-$0.18	-4.1%	2029-01-01
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? Yes	Redeemable	16.7294	1.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.18	-100.0%	2026-08-16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Held	470	69.34¢	69.3¢	$325.71	-$0.21	-0.1%	2026-10-31
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	2.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.28	-100.0%	2026-01-06
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	2.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.28	-100.0%	2026-01-06
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	10	2.77¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.28	-100.0%	2026-01-06
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.7¢	$3.50	-$0.29	-7.7%	2027-01-01
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 7 be between 2,000,000 and 2,100,000? Yes	Redeemable	30.57	2.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$0.66	-100.0%	2026-01-07
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No	Held	28.15	22¢	19.5¢	$5.49	-$0.70	-11.4%	2026-12-31
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	-$0.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$0.87	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.00	-100.0%	2026-03-11
Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? No	Held	53.1111	55¢	53¢	$28.15	-$1.06	-3.6%	2026-12-31
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	1.1¢	$9.24	-$1.25	-11.9%	2026-10-10
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Yes	Redeemable	83.75	1.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.30	-100.0%	2026-05-16
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.45¢	$2.25	-$1.54	-40.6%	2027-01-01
Will Danil "⁠donk⁠" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Opener of the Year award No	Redeemable	10	16¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.60	-100.0%	2026-01-10
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 23 be between 2,100,000 and 2,200,000? Yes	Redeemable	20	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.60	-100.0%	2026-01-23
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	400	83¢	82.5¢	$330.00	-$2.00	-0.6%	2029-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.35¢	$1.75	-$2.04	-53.8%	2027-01-01
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of January? Yes	Redeemable	111	2¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.22	-100.0%	2026-01-30
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.3¢	$1.50	-$2.29	-60.4%	2027-01-01
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	83.48	7.29¢	4.5¢	$3.76	-$2.34	-38.4%	2026-11-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.25¢	$1.25	-$2.54	-67.0%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.25¢	$1.25	-$2.54	-67.0%	2027-01-01
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	-$2.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.15¢	$0.30	-$2.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.2¢	$1.00	-$2.79	-73.6%	2027-01-01
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	210.007	1.24¢	1.05¢	$2.21	-$2.89	-15.9%	2026-10-10
Will Vitalik Buterin appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes	Held	40	13¢	5.6¢	$2.24	-$2.96	-56.9%	2027-01-01
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.0325	1.4¢	0.8¢	$0.32	-$2.97	-43.2%	2027-04-01
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$2.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$2.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$2.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$2.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	0.5¢	0.05¢	$0.10	-$2.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	78.8	3.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.03	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	78.8	3.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.03	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	78.8	3.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.03	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.15¢	$0.75	-$3.04	-80.2%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.15¢	$0.75	-$3.04	-80.2%	2027-01-01
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.0203	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$3.27	-96.5%	2027-04-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.1¢	$0.50	-$3.29	-86.8%	2027-01-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? Yes	Held	500	0.75¢	0.1¢	$0.50	-$3.29	-86.8%	2027-01-01
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Yes	Redeemable	266.75	1.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.33	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Will Serhou Guirassy be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Yes	Redeemable	266.75	1.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.33	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.85¢	$7.14	-$3.35	-31.9%	2026-10-10
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.85¢	$7.14	-$3.35	-31.9%	2026-10-10
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.85¢	$7.14	-$3.35	-31.9%	2026-10-10
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Held	119.99	79¢	76¢	$91.19	-$3.60	-3.8%	2026-12-31
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Yes	Redeemable	400	1.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.60	-100.0%	2026-01-31
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Yes	Redeemable	300	1.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.90	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$4.07	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Greenville County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff? Yes	Redeemable	140.51	2.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.23	-100.0%	2026-08-25
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	314.4494	89¢	88.5¢	$278.29	-$4.31	-0.6%	2028-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes	Held	63	19¢	11.5¢	$7.25	-$4.72	-39.5%	2027-07-01
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No	Redeemable	6.66	72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.80	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.0098	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$4.87	-96.4%	2027-04-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No	Held	456.44	44.59¢	43.5¢	$198.55	-$5.00	-2.5%	2026-11-16
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 9 be between 1,900,000 and 2,000,000? Yes	Redeemable	99.9959	6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$6.00	-100.0%	2026-01-09
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$6.47	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$6.47	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	400.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$0.60	-$6.47	-67.0%	2028-11-08
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	40.007	1.4¢	0.05¢	$0.02	-$6.51	-96.4%	2027-04-01
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	473.9515	1.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.11	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	473.9515	1.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.11	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Redeemable	2,399.9815	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.20	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.4¢	$20.00	-$7.41	-27.0%	2028-11-08
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	322	7.73¢	5.4¢	$17.39	-$7.52	-30.2%	2027-01-01
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	359.1	2.1¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.54	-100.0%	2026-03-04
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$1.56	-$7.64	-67.4%	2028-11-08
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$1.56	-$7.64	-67.4%	2028-11-08
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$1.56	-$7.64	-67.4%	2028-11-08
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.15¢	$3.30	-$7.79	-70.2%	2028-11-08
James Comey charges dropped by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	79	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.90	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	499.9968	1.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	44.84	23¢	4.5¢	$2.02	-$8.30	-80.4%	2027-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Held	6,305.14	63.63¢	63.5¢	$4.0K	-$8.54	-0.2%	2026-11-04
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	33.84	25.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$8.66	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$8.68	-89.1%	2028-11-08
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.45¢	$18.19	-$9.01	-33.1%	2028-11-08
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	40	22.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$9.10	-100.0%	2026-09-01
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Held	182.67	75.1¢	70¢	$127.87	-$9.33	-6.8%	2026-09-14
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.25¢	$2.60	-$9.60	-45.6%	2028-11-08
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.05¢	$1.10	-$9.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.05¢	$1.10	-$9.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,200.0603	0.5¢	0.05¢	$1.10	-$9.99	-90.1%	2028-11-08
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	1,999.9903	73¢	72.5¢	$1.4K	-$10.00	-0.7%	2026-11-04
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? Yes	Held	2,000	6¢	5.5¢	$110.00	-$10.00	-8.3%	2026-11-01
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? No	Redeemable	200	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.00	-100.0%	2026-03-18
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? Yes	Redeemable	43.24	23.15¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.01	-100.0%	2026-08-23
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.05¢	$0.42	-$10.07	-96.0%	2026-10-10
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.05¢	$0.42	-$10.07	-96.0%	2026-10-10
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	840.007	1.24¢	0.05¢	$0.42	-$10.07	-96.0%	2026-10-10
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes	Held	186.14	83.99¢	78.5¢	$146.12	-$10.24	-6.5%	2026-12-16
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes	Redeemable	125	8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$10.28	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	699	6¢	4.5¢	$31.45	-$10.48	-25.0%	2027-01-01
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	103.23	12¢	1.8¢	$1.86	-$10.53	-85.0%	2027-01-01
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$11.68	-89.1%	2028-11-08
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$11.68	-89.1%	2028-11-08
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$11.68	-89.1%	2028-11-08
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No	Held	2,499.989	78¢	77.5¢	$1.9K	-$12.50	-0.6%	2026-10-27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	800	1.6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$12.80	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.35¢	$14.15	-$13.05	-48.0%	2028-11-08
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.35¢	$14.15	-$13.05	-48.0%	2028-11-08
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	253.96	5.49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$13.95	-100.0%	2026-05-31
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No	Held	3,000	86¢	85.5¢	$2.6K	-$15.00	-0.6%	2026-10-28
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Yes	Held	239.9365	9¢	2.5¢	$6.00	-$15.60	-72.2%	2027-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes	Held	190	26.84¢	18¢	$34.20	-$16.80	-32.9%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	322	0¢	0¢	$0.00	-$16.82	0.0%	2026-12-31
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.25¢	$10.11	-$17.09	-62.8%	2028-11-08
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.25¢	$10.11	-$17.09	-62.8%	2028-11-08
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.25¢	$10.11	-$17.09	-62.8%	2028-11-08
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Held	122.83	61.58¢	47.5¢	$58.34	-$17.30	-22.9%	2026-09-14
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Held	1,891.307	1.86¢	0.95¢	$17.97	-$17.34	-49.1%	2026-10-10
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026? Yes	Held	165.87	44.65¢	34¢	$56.40	-$17.67	-23.9%	2026-10-15
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? No	Redeemable	6,307.15	0.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$18.92	-100.0%	2026-03-10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No	Held	1,178.27	74.63¢	73¢	$860.14	-$19.22	-2.2%	2026-12-01
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.15¢	$7.50	-$19.91	-72.6%	2028-11-08
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	200	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$20.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.15¢	$6.06	-$21.14	-77.7%	2028-11-08
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.15¢	$6.06	-$21.14	-77.7%	2028-11-08
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.15¢	$6.06	-$21.14	-77.7%	2028-11-08
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.15¢	$6.06	-$21.14	-77.7%	2028-11-08
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No	Redeemable	2,286.43	0.89¢	0¢	$0.00	-$21.25	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	322	7.73¢	1.1¢	$3.54	-$21.36	-85.8%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes	Held	322	7.73¢	0.9¢	$2.90	-$22.01	-88.4%	2027-01-01
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Held	1,500	44¢	42.5¢	$637.50	-$22.50	-3.4%	2027-01-02
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	662.98	16¢	12.5¢	$82.87	-$23.20	-21.9%	2028-01-01
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? Yes	Redeemable	322	7.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$24.90	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	5,000	0.54¢	0.05¢	$2.50	-$24.91	-90.9%	2028-11-08
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.05¢	$2.02	-$25.18	-92.6%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.05¢	$2.02	-$25.18	-92.6%	2028-11-08
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.05¢	$2.02	-$25.18	-92.6%	2028-11-08
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.05¢	$2.02	-$25.18	-92.6%	2028-11-08
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	4,042.0064	0.67¢	0.05¢	$2.02	-$25.18	-92.6%	2028-11-08
Will "Kiss" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1) No	Redeemable	30.1	89.32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$26.89	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Will Trump say "Poland" or "Polish" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2? No	Redeemable	65	42.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$27.45	-100.0%	2026-03-02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	145.62	20¢	0¢	$0.00	-$29.12	-100.0%	2026-08-09
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? No	Held	705.62	89.81¢	91.95¢	$648.82	-$29.13	+2.4%	2026-09-14
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	200	17¢	1.45¢	$2.90	-$31.10	-91.5%	2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September? Yes	Redeemable	525	6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$31.50	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No	Held	313.41	16.68¢	6.5¢	$20.37	-$31.91	-61.0%	2027-01-01
Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Held	166.1575	88.23¢	95.5¢	$158.68	-$31.92	+8.2%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Yes	Held	190.5	48.54¢	32.5¢	$61.91	-$35.72	-33.0%	2027-04-01
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? No	Redeemable	920.95	4.52¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.31	-100.0%	2026-05-22
Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? Yes	Redeemable	144.5184	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$41.91	-100.0%	2026-04-13
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13) No	Redeemable	749.9893	6¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.00	-100.0%	2026-04-19
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes	Redeemable	500	9¢	0¢	$0.00	-$45.00	-100.0%	2026-08-13
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? Yes	Held	627	21.69¢	14.5¢	$90.92	-$45.12	-33.2%	2026-11-16
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes	Redeemable	579.67	8.58¢	0¢	$0.00	-$49.78	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No	Redeemable	500	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.00	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30? Yes	Redeemable	703.26	7.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$50.27	-100.0%	2026-09-30
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) Yes	Held	1,522	19.96¢	16.5¢	$251.13	-$52.80	-17.4%	2026-10-31
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes	Held	723.57	18.29¢	10.95¢	$79.23	-$53.15	-40.1%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? Yes	Held	445.85	25¢	13¢	$57.96	-$53.50	-48.0%	2027-01-01
Will "Jamie" be said 5+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (January 18) Yes	Redeemable	95.0609	57.43¢	0¢	$0.00	-$54.60	-100.0%	2026-01-18
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	500	11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$55.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	5,921.4	90.22¢	89.5¢	$5.3K	-$55.05	-0.8%	2028-01-01
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1) No	Redeemable	194.3	29¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.35	-100.0%	2026-03-01
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? Yes	Held	388.8601	25¢	10.5¢	$40.83	-$56.38	-58.0%	2026-11-01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Held	200	31¢	2.65¢	$5.30	-$56.70	-91.5%	2027-01-01
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Yes	Redeemable	158.9802	22¢	0¢	$0.00	-$56.78	-100.0%	2026-02-26
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No	Held	12,249.05	90.96¢	90.5¢	$11.1K	-$57.13	-0.5%	2028-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	500	15.44¢	2.55¢	$12.75	-$58.25	-83.5%	2027-01-01
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes	Redeemable	600	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$60.00	-100.0%	2026-02-28
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	7,424.96	0.74¢	0¢	$0.00	-$64.29	-100.0%	2026-10-01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No	Held	13,300	92¢	91.5¢	$12.2K	-$66.50	-0.5%	2026-11-04
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Yes	Held	434.8286	55¢	39.5¢	$171.76	-$67.66	-28.2%	2026-10-31
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? No	Redeemable	9,999.9912	0.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$80.00	-100.0%	2026-07-17
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Held	385.38	33.21¢	12.2¢	$47.02	-$80.98	-63.3%	2026-12-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Held	1,268.31	66.19¢	66.5¢	$843.43	-$84.28	+0.5%	2026-12-31
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? No	Redeemable	259.92	32.68¢	0¢	$0.00	-$84.96	-100.0%	2026-08-24
Will Melania say "Foster" or "Fostering" during Security Council events on March 2? Yes	Redeemable	1,775.6064	3.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$85.03	-100.0%	2026-03-02
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 25 be greater than 2,100,000? Yes	Redeemable	130	67.23¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.40	-100.0%	2026-01-25
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Yes	Redeemable	157.7829	55.33¢	0¢	$0.00	-$87.46	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? No	Redeemable	3,136.89	3.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$91.38	-100.0%	2026-09-20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July? Yes	Redeemable	5,527.9797	1.59¢	0¢	$0.00	-$92.04	-100.0%	2026-08-01
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	250	40¢	0¢	$0.00	-$100.00	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? No	Redeemable	222.3333	46.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$104.89	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31? Yes	Redeemable	500	21.35¢	0¢	$0.00	-$106.79	-100.0%	2026-03-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,458.6802	2.4¢	0¢	$0.00	-$107.01	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes	Held	2,101.3	19¢	15.5¢	$325.70	-$111.52	-18.4%	2027-01-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	1,407.1008	22.44¢	14.5¢	$204.03	-$112.25	-35.4%	2028-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,239.7916	10.47¢	1.8¢	$40.32	-$114.75	-82.8%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470? No	Redeemable	1,000	14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$140.00	-100.0%	—
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,500	18¢	8.5¢	$127.50	-$142.50	-52.8%	2026-11-01
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	699.996	28.85¢	4.85¢	$33.95	-$143.23	-83.2%	2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,490.8427	25.9¢	13.5¢	$336.26	-$147.63	-47.9%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes	Held	2,999.9915	23.49¢	18.5¢	$555.00	-$149.99	-21.3%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No	Held	2,122.01	20.31¢	17.5¢	$371.35	-$158.52	-13.9%	2026-10-31
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No	Redeemable	21,110.9924	0.76¢	0¢	$0.00	-$161.06	-100.0%	2026-07-31
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? Yes	Held	1,002.38	31.14¢	9.55¢	$95.73	-$172.81	-69.3%	2026-11-01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Held	1,013.32	21.62¢	4.5¢	$45.60	-$173.49	-79.2%	2027-01-01
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m? Yes	Redeemable	399.9907	44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$176.00	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? No	Redeemable	399.9886	49¢	0¢	$0.00	-$177.66	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike Cuba next? Yes	Redeemable	299	9.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$179.03	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m? Yes	Redeemable	3,599.3947	5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$179.97	-100.0%	2026-07-19
Will the US strike Yemen next? Yes	Redeemable	2,000	9.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$180.73	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike another country first? Yes	Redeemable	1,917.12	4.54¢	0¢	$0.00	-$182.83	-100.0%	—
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes	Held	1,000	60¢	41.5¢	$415.00	-$185.00	-30.8%	2026-06-03
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No	Redeemable	600	31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$186.00	-100.0%	—
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes	Held	566.639	45¢	12¢	$68.00	-$186.99	-73.3%	2027-01-01
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	3,734.3419	6.12¢	0¢	$0.00	-$198.61	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? No	Redeemable	1,999.9769	10¢	0¢	$0.00	-$200.00	-100.0%	2026-03-18
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Yes	Redeemable	300	69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$207.00	-100.0%	2026-05-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No	Held	3,986.17	34.4¢	28.5¢	$1.1K	-$215.66	-17.2%	2026-10-31
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? No	Redeemable	505.0265	69.5¢	0¢	$0.00	-$227.65	-100.0%	2026-05-10
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes	Held	2,279.9701	16.96¢	6.5¢	$148.20	-$238.69	-61.7%	2026-11-01
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	400.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$0.60	-$248.97	-67.0%	2028-11-08
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? Yes	Redeemable	273.38	63.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$249.62	-100.0%	2026-07-15
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs Team Yandex	Redeemable	81.8672	32.05¢	0¢	$0.00	-$259.49	-100.0%	2026-08-22
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes	Held	3,000	28.16¢	19.5¢	$585.00	-$260.00	-30.8%	2028-01-01
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes	Redeemable	504.8953	9.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$260.59	-100.0%	2026-06-15
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,132.9928	15.62¢	2.9¢	$61.86	-$271.39	-81.4%	2027-01-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	7,790.9033	5.64¢	0¢	$0.00	-$275.95	-100.0%	2026-07-04
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,500	21¢	2.55¢	$38.25	-$276.75	-87.9%	2026-11-01
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,800	15.44¢	0¢	$0.00	-$278.00	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes	Redeemable	220.8441	55.07¢	0¢	$0.00	-$279.90	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	10,837.3	11.25¢	8.5¢	$921.17	-$298.91	-24.5%	2027-01-01
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No	Held	222.38	81¢	80.5¢	$179.02	-$311.11	-0.6%	2029-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Yes	Redeemable	1,117.5546	7.62¢	0¢	$0.00	-$311.37	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or KD? KD	Redeemable	797.2	38.72¢	0¢	$0.00	-$311.59	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,879.5673	21.51¢	4.1¢	$77.06	-$312.74	-80.9%	2027-01-01
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? Yes	Redeemable	3,841.1514	8.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$313.33	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes	Held	1,970.81	27.75¢	12¢	$236.50	-$319.66	-56.8%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes	Held	2,071.46	30.99¢	15.5¢	$321.08	-$321.07	-50.0%	2026-10-29
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Yes	Redeemable	399.9976	83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$332.00	-100.0%	2026-03-31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? No	Held	4,665.9207	16.75¢	9.5¢	$443.26	-$338.35	-43.3%	2026-10-16
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Held	4,686.3497	78.44¢	73.5¢	$3.4K	-$363.03	-6.3%	2026-11-04
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	20,227.5289	1.04¢	0.5¢	$101.14	-$366.83	-52.3%	2028-11-08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes	Redeemable	768.3925	33.8¢	0¢	$0.00	-$376.85	-100.0%	2027-12-31
Will the US strike another country first? Yes	Redeemable	4,375	8.98¢	0¢	$0.00	-$392.94	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes	Held	2,239.9146	17.81¢	0.15¢	$3.36	-$395.74	-99.2%	2026-12-31
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes	Held	2,239.9146	17.81¢	0.15¢	$3.36	-$395.74	-99.2%	2027-03-02
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? No	Redeemable	625.5	69.99¢	0¢	$0.00	-$443.04	-100.0%	2026-09-13
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Held	843.8563	27.99¢	4.9¢	$41.35	-$451.06	-82.5%	2027-01-01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes	Redeemable	2,514.6165	9.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$469.94	-100.0%	2026-07-31
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,754.9204	9.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$471.94	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes	Redeemable	3,384.1671	10.39¢	0¢	$0.00	-$476.64	-100.0%	2026-07-01
Will the US strike Cuba next? Yes	Redeemable	6,500.0055	6.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$478.06	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike Colombia next? Yes	Redeemable	7,000	6.3¢	0¢	$0.00	-$478.56	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes	Redeemable	44,518.4133	0.55¢	0¢	$0.00	-$479.56	-100.0%	2026-07-20
Will the US strike Mexico next? Yes	Redeemable	7,500	6.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$485.56	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Yes	Redeemable	8,000	6.08¢	0¢	$0.00	-$486.56	-100.0%	2026-12-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	405.97	43.91¢	0¢	$0.00	-$513.11	-100.0%	2026-04-30
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	1,300	52¢	12.5¢	$162.50	-$513.50	-76.0%	2027-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,476.51	31.03¢	0¢	$0.00	-$565.91	-100.0%	2026-10-01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	2,440.1636	16.05¢	17.05¢	$416.05	-$576.72	+6.2%	2028-11-08
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Redeemable	3,430.7681	17.75¢	0¢	$0.00	-$615.91	-100.0%	2027-12-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,165.724	22.91¢	4.7¢	$101.79	-$620.83	-79.5%	2026-11-01
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Yes	Held	1,045.74	65.52¢	6¢	$62.74	-$622.52	-90.8%	2026-12-31
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? ETH	Redeemable	1,516.8457	38.31¢	0¢	$0.00	-$624.52	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Yes	Held	996.45	69.12¢	2.95¢	$29.40	-$659.37	-95.7%	2028-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No	Held	393.2902	93.4¢	96.85¢	$380.90	-$662.99	+3.7%	2027-01-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	2,307.1651	18¢	1.5¢	$34.61	-$673.13	-91.7%	2026-11-01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Held	1,403.8327	35.8¢	11.5¢	$161.44	-$718.48	-67.9%	2027-01-01
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,244	63.84¢	0¢	$0.00	-$812.72	-100.0%	2026-08-31
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Held	3,220.5381	47.68¢	6.95¢	$223.83	-$901.12	-85.4%	2028-11-08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	908.63	85.18¢	0¢	$0.00	-$928.84	-100.0%	2026-04-23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No	Redeemable	2,978.84	32¢	0¢	$0.00	-$953.23	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	1,505.1794	64.46¢	0¢	$0.00	-$970.36	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Held	35,427.4645	66.35¢	63.5¢	$22.5K	-$976.51	-4.3%	2026-10-28
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$1.56	-$998.64	-67.4%	2028-11-08
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner Galions	Redeemable	1,443.9828	71.69¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.0K	-100.0%	2026-09-02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Yes	Redeemable	12,582.6344	10.47¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.3K	-100.0%	2026-07-07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	4,904.4262	25.71¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.6K	-100.0%	2026-08-08
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Held	3,163.6147	39.88¢	22.5¢	$711.81	-$1.7K	-43.6%	2027-01-01
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No	Redeemable	2,913.9383	24.24¢	0¢	$0.00	-$1.8K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Held	9,393.03	29.69¢	20.5¢	$1.9K	-$2.0K	-31.0%	2026-11-01
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? No	Redeemable	0.562	67.14¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.1K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	1,502.2314	19.73¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.2K	-100.0%	2026-05-22
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes	Held	12,410.31	29.84¢	10.5¢	$1.3K	-$2.5K	-64.8%	2027-01-01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? No	Redeemable	1,536.9535	47.11¢	0¢	$0.00	-$2.5K	-100.0%	2026-08-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	16,408.4407	18.41¢	0¢	$0.00	-$3.5K	-100.0%	2026-06-07
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes	Redeemable	414.4923	44.36¢	0¢	$0.00	-$4.3K	-100.0%	2026-06-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? No	Redeemable	11,899.102	42.83¢	0¢	$0.00	-$5.2K	-100.0%	2027-03-31
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.05¢	$0.52	-$5.9K	-89.1%	2028-11-08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Redeemable	11,735.0313	59.48¢	0¢	$0.00	-$7.3K	-100.0%	2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Held	1,042.0064	0.45¢	0.15¢	$1.56	-$9.8K	-67.4%	2028-11-08
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Held	199.9703	49.99¢	0.15¢	$0.30	-$10.0K	-99.7%	2028-11-08

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