What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xfd67...ef90?

As of 2026-07-21, Convexly's cached read shows 20 resolved positions, 12 wins and 8 losses (win rate 60.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: +2.3 probability points, 95% CI [-21.4, +23.1] (BCa bootstrap, n = 20 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge +2.3 pp, 95% CI [-21.4, +23.1], n=20

Realized edge +2.3 probability points across 20 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-21.4, +23.1]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: DevelopingCalibration is still noisy below 30 scored resolved positions. Use the pillars as clues, not conclusions.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-07-21 Run a fresh analysis

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (41 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

Wins / losses

12 / 8

Win rate

60.0%

Brier

0.252

Baseline Brier

0.240

Biggest-event share

91.1%

First position

2026-01-14

Fills analyzed

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.0116. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Japan vs. Sweden (91.1% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	20	60.0%	0.252	0.240

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
30-40%	3	66.7%	35.0%
40-50%	2	100.0%	45.0%
50-60%	6	16.7%	55.0%
60-70%	6	83.3%	65.0%
70-80%	1	100.0%	75.0%
80-90%	2	50.0%	85.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xfd67...ef90?: As of 2026-07-21, Convexly's cached read shows 20 resolved positions, 12 wins and 8 losses (win rate 60.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: +2.3 probability points, 95% CI [-21.4, +23.1] (BCa bootstrap, n = 20 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xfd67...ef90 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge +2.3 probability points across 20 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-21.4, +23.1]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain