Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,410 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.
Realized-edge read
Demonstrated edge on the record
-200+40
realized edge +31.2 pp, 95% CI [+26.0, +36.5], n=292
Demonstrated edge of +31.2 probability points (how much more often this wallet's entries resolved true than the price it paid implied) across 292 resolved positions, 95% CI [+26.0, +36.5] excludes 0. No structural style detected: the entries look like directional position-taking, though this measure cannot separate forecasting from favorable fills. A Convexly read of the public on-chain record, retrospective and in-sample.
Diagnostics on public on-chain behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and an in-sample interval is not a verdict on future trades. A copier inherits entries, not sizing, timing, or outcomes, so a positive average is not your result over time. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.
Frozen research snapshot
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 381 resolved positions with a win rate of 42.5% and a realized edge over entry prices of +25.8 probability points, 95% CI [+21.0, +30.6] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.
One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.0808. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 7? (14.1% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)
Category breakdown
Per-category resolved record from the cached read. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
politics
89
47.2%
0.345
0.249
other
84
51.2%
0.365
0.250
sports
59
22.0%
0.180
0.172
science
26
38.5%
0.307
0.237
crypto
18
55.6%
0.472
0.247
entertainment
12
50.0%
0.387
0.250
economics
4
75.0%
0.556
0.188
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
0-10%
129
34.9%
5.0%
10-20%
119
40.3%
15.0%
20-30%
30
76.7%
25.0%
30-40%
2
50.0%
35.0%
40-50%
5
60.0%
45.0%
50-60%
5
100.0%
55.0%
90-100%
2
100.0%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xf1f0...58df?
As of 2026-07-18, Convexly's cached read shows 292 resolved positions, 127 wins and 165 losses (win rate 43.5%). Realized edge over entry prices: +31.2 probability points, 95% CI [+26.0, +36.5] (BCa bootstrap, n = 292 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xf1f0...58df skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Demonstrated edge of +31.2 probability points (how much more often this wallet's entries resolved true than the price it paid implied) across 292 resolved positions, 95% CI [+26.0, +36.5] excludes 0. No structural style detected: the entries look like directional position-taking, though this measure cannot separate forecasting from favorable fills. A Convexly read of the public on-chain record, retrospective and in-sample. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public on-chain behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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