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Polymarket wallet record

Window read, not a record verdict

Within noise of zero in the public window

+1.1 pp

On the 519 settled positions the public API shows (405 independent events), the realized edge is +1.1 pp (95% CI [-1.9, +4.0]): Within noise of zero in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, so it describes the window and not the record. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.

Edge Score 51 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.

Wallet0xf04b...4778PolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

Recent observed trades

Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-08

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,813 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

519

Wins / losses

225 / 294

Win rate

43.4%

Brier

0.185

Baseline Brier

0.246

First position

2026-01-08

Fills analyzed

1,813

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0607. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
crypto26144.1%0.1670.246
sports24443.4%0.2080.246
politics837.5%0.0980.234
science616.7%0.1290.139

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%472.1%5.0%
10-20%6510.8%15.0%
20-30%6122.9%25.0%
30-40%7844.9%35.0%
40-50%7655.3%45.0%
50-60%7250.0%55.0%
60-70%4860.4%65.0%
70-80%2680.8%75.0%
80-90%3287.5%85.0%
90-100%1485.7%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xf04b...4778?
As of 2026-09-08, Convexly's cached read shows 519 resolved positions, 225 wins and 294 losses (win rate 43.4%). Realized edge over entry prices: +1.1 probability points, 95% CI [-1.9, +4.0] (BCa bootstrap, n = 519 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xf04b...4778 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +1.1 probability points, 95% CI [-1.9, +4.0] (BCa bootstrap, n = 519 scored positions in 405 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain

0xf04b...4778 Polymarket wallet record | Convexly