A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Headline statistics
Resolved positions
1,364
Wins / losses
1071 / 293
Win rate
78.5%
Brier
0.033
Baseline Brier
0.169
Biggest-event share
468.6%
First position
2026-05-17
Fills analyzed
3,100
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1356. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET (468.6% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
crypto
1364
78.5%
0.033
0.169
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
50-60%
7
42.9%
55.0%
60-70%
1
0.0%
65.0%
70-80%
24
87.5%
75.0%
80-90%
50
72.0%
85.0%
90-100%
1024
97.9%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xdcb3...c96c?
As of 2026-05-21, Convexly's cached read shows 1364 resolved positions, 1071 wins and 293 losses (win rate 78.5%). No realized-edge interval is available in the cached read. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xdcb3...c96c skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Convexly has no cached read for this wallet yet, so no skill-versus-luck read is published here. Run the free wallet analyzer to compute one from Polymarket's public trade record.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
Want this for every wallet you watch?
Convexly Researcher tier ($49/mo) follows up to 10 wallets, ships a Monday digest of Edge Score deltas + concentration drift + new positions, plus a daily Coherence Signals feed.
Convexly