A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Headline statistics
Resolved positions
141
Wins / losses
26 / 115
Win rate
18.4%
Brier
0.164
Baseline Brier
0.150
Biggest-event share
34.8%
First position
2026-05-30
Fills analyzed
3,100
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.0138. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET (34.8% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
crypto
141
18.4%
0.164
0.150
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xcfbb...4197?
As of 2026-06-04, Convexly's cached read shows 141 resolved positions, 26 wins and 115 losses (win rate 18.4%). No realized-edge interval is available in the cached read. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xcfbb...4197 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Convexly has no cached read for this wallet yet, so no skill-versus-luck read is published here. Run the free wallet analyzer to compute one from Polymarket's public trade record.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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